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Economic Updates

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Economic Updates

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US stocks rally in quiet session, Yields and USD down, AUD holds major support.

US indices finished in the green, managing to hold onto gains following an upside boost from the Asian session. Asian bourses broadly rallied after Chinese stocks were buoyed by authorities taking measures to help boost their local market by cutting stamp duty on stock trades. With markets being risk-on predictable drops in the USD and yield...

August 29, 2023
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The Week Ahead – Powell and Jackson Hole, EU PMI’s, Japanese Inflation

Global markets enter the final full week of August on a downbeat risk-sentiment after another losing week in US equities saw the Nasdaq 100 have its lowest weekly close since June. The hangover from the surprise Fitch downgrade of US debt continues to keep yields elevated, the US 10 Year stubbornly holding above 4%, creating a headwind for risk ass...

August 21, 2023
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Asian Open – Hawkish FOMC sees US stocks slide again, USD rally. JPY clobbered, AUD dips ahead of Jobs Data.

Asian indices are looking to open soft in Thursday’s session after major US Indices extended their sell-off in Wednesdays session on stronger than expected US data and a “hawkish” FOMC minutes where Fed officials saw ‘upside risks’ to inflation possibly leading to more rate hikes. The Russell 2000 led losses (-1.28%) in the US on the cont...

August 17, 2023
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Big-Tech leads US Stocks lower, Gold slides again, Bonds bid ahead of CPI

Major US indexes were lower in in a choppy session on Wednesday as traders position themselves for today’s pivotal CPI reading out of the US. Tech led the declines with the Nasdaq being the worst performing index, dropping 162 points (-1.17%), the NDX100 closing below its 50 Day MA for the first time since early March. AI exuberance seeming to lo...

August 10, 2023
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The Week Ahead – US inflation, UK GDP headline, DXY and GBP outlook

Inflation readings are the main theme for this week in economic releases with CPI readings from the US and China the quarterly NZ inflation expectations all set to test traders’ predictions on rates from Central Banks who all seem to be on “data dependent” mode. US: CPI and PPI readings With a market split on the Fed’s next move in th...

August 7, 2023
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FX Analysis – Risk-Off Hits Equities, USD and JPY outperform on haven flows, AUD, NZD slump

US Equity markets slumped on Wednesday with a surprise Fitch credit downgrade of the US and a hot ADP employment figure pushing yields higher saw the risk-off trade firmly in control. FX Markets USD rallied strongly on Wednesday, with DXY rising from lows of 102.01 to highs of 102.78 before pulling back modestly to finish the session around 1...

August 3, 2023
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The Week Ahead – RBA and BoE Rate Decisions – AUDUSD, GBPUSD

Coming off a big week in Central Bank action, risk events are set to continue this week with the Reserve Bank of Australia and Bank of England rate decisions on Tuesday and Thursday respectively, topped off with the always important non-Farm payrolls out of the US on Friday, which are set to keep traders on their toes. Australia – RBA rate dec...

July 31, 2023
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FX Analysis – EUR Underperforms on ugly PMIs, Rally in UST Yields Support USD,CAD Up on Back of Oil Rally.

FX markets traded in a holding pattern on Monday to start the week ahead of a deluge of big data to come. EU PMI’s were ugly though, all missing expectations, indicating a slowing economy but with sticky prices, raising the spectre of stagflation again and weeing the Euro underperform. FX WRAP USD was firmer on Monday, with a rise in the US...

July 25, 2023
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The Week Ahead – FOMC, ECB, BoJ Rate Decisions, Aussie CPI Headline a Big Week in Markets

Global markets are heading into a bumper week of tier one economic releases, with the eagerly awaited rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan on the calendar. Also in the mix are key Inflation figures from the US , Europe and Australia to keep traders on their toes. US: FOMC looks set to hike 25bp US ...

July 24, 2023
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The Rally on Wall St continues – Tech leads on soft US data, FX markets choppy – range bound

US equities pushed higher again in Monday’s session with soft US manufacturing data (lowering rate expectations from the Fed) counteracting weak Chinese figures during the Asian session. This saw the NASDAQ outperform, breaking through resistance and hitting its highest level since January 2022. FX Markets USD was flat on Monday, the US...

July 18, 2023
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The Week Ahead – The charts to watch USD, GBP, AUD

The Dow Jones closed 100 points higher Friday, having its best week since March as US and global markets were solidly risk-on with beats in US earnings and US data showing a cooling in inflation. The week ahead is looking to continue this theme with US data likely to hint at a softening growth story with industrial activity data set to remain subdu...

July 17, 2023
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US Equities Eke out a Gain, Dollar Battered, Bonds Bid

Major US indices finished in the green in Monday’s session as lowered inflation expectations saw treasury yields come off the recent highs, bolstering stocks but seeing the USD take a big hit. The Russell 2000 was the clear outperformer (+1.64%) while the Nasdaq squeaked into the green after spending most of the session in negative territory, ...

July 11, 2023
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Charts to Watch in the Week Ahead – BoC rate decision, US CPI, RBNZ, UK wage and jobs data

Central banks are back in action in the coming week with the Bank of Canada and RBNZ scheduled to release their latest monetary policy and official rate decisions, also some key data from the US and the UK which will go a long way to cement market expectations of the next move from their Central Banks. Charts to watch this week: GBPUSD :  UK...

July 10, 2023
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FX markets analysis – DXY, JPY, AUD, MXN, CNH, EUR

USD rose on Wednesday with participants returning from the long weekend pushing the Dollar Index above the key 103.00 level. FOMC minutes from the June meeting were released, with nothing new in Dot Plot projections but they did confirm that some policymakers were pushing for a 25bp hike rather than the hold we got, which lent support to the USD. A...

July 6, 2023
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The Week Ahead- RBA, FOMC minutes and NFP headline

The FX market enters the new week after the USD has dominated for the last fortnight, reversing it’s early June weakness on the back of a Fed that has pushed back hard against markets pricing in a rate pivot, jawboning odds of a hike at their July meeting as almost now fully priced in. This week’s US data will play a big part in whether markets...

July 3, 2023
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