Economic Updates
Markets to watch this week – USDJPY, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, Gold, Oil
Global markets enter Q4 this week on a downbeat mood after a shellacking of risk assets in Q3 seeing the S&P 500 having its worst quarter in a year. The “higher for longer” narrative coming out of the Federal reserve and other Central banks over the last month pushing yields higher, (the US 10-year yield at 16-year highs), pressuring risk a...
EURUSD Faces Key Support Ahead of US CPI Data Release
The EURUSD pair has been navigating challenging waters in recent weeks, experiencing a decline of more than 5% since mid-July. This decline has primarily been due to the USD's strength, as the Federal Reserve remains firm in its commitment to maintaining higher interest rates for longer to bring down inflation. Last week marked a critical tu...
Crucial Moment for EUR/USD as Ascending Channel Faces Test
The EUR/USD pair finds itself once again testing the lower boundary of its well established ascending channel. This channel kicked off in early 2023 and has held firm ever since. This week will be important to see if a break in this pattern occurs and a new downward trend begins. Traders are eagerly awaiting a breakout from the channel, which ...
US stocks rally in quiet session, Yields and USD down, AUD holds major support.
US indices finished in the green, managing to hold onto gains following an upside boost from the Asian session. Asian bourses broadly rallied after Chinese stocks were buoyed by authorities taking measures to help boost their local market by cutting stamp duty on stock trades. With markets being risk-on predictable drops in the USD and yield...
The Week Ahead – Powell and Jackson Hole, EU PMI’s, Japanese Inflation
Global markets enter the final full week of August on a downbeat risk-sentiment after another losing week in US equities saw the Nasdaq 100 have its lowest weekly close since June. The hangover from the surprise Fitch downgrade of US debt continues to keep yields elevated, the US 10 Year stubbornly holding above 4%, creating a headwind for risk ass...
Airbnb sets a new record and tops estimates for Q1
Airbnb Inc. announced its first quarter earnings results after the closing bell on Wall Street on Tuesday, exceeding analyst estimates for the first three months of the year. The company reported revenue of $1.509 billion vs. $1.452 billion expected. Total revenue represents an increase of 80% from Q1 2019 and 70% from Q1 2020. Loss per share...
Big-Tech leads US Stocks lower, Gold slides again, Bonds bid ahead of CPI
Major US indexes were lower in in a choppy session on Wednesday as traders position themselves for today’s pivotal CPI reading out of the US. Tech led the declines with the Nasdaq being the worst performing index, dropping 162 points (-1.17%), the NDX100 closing below its 50 Day MA for the first time since early March. AI exuberance seeming to lo...
The Week Ahead – US inflation, UK GDP headline, DXY and GBP outlook
Inflation readings are the main theme for this week in economic releases with CPI readings from the US and China the quarterly NZ inflation expectations all set to test traders’ predictions on rates from Central Banks who all seem to be on “data dependent” mode. US: CPI and PPI readings With a market split on the Fed’s next move in th...
Non-Farm Payrolls Preview – Charts to watch – DXY – US10Y
Todays NFP figure out of the USA is shaping up to be a pivotal moment in market expectations as to whether we’ve seen peak rates from The Federal Reserve, or if there is more to come and the ramifications that will have for the FX market. NFP figures are always interesting, traditionally the biggest market moving figure of the month on the US ...
FX Analysis – Risk-Off Hits Equities, USD and JPY outperform on haven flows, AUD, NZD slump
US Equity markets slumped on Wednesday with a surprise Fitch credit downgrade of the US and a hot ADP employment figure pushing yields higher saw the risk-off trade firmly in control. FX Markets USD rallied strongly on Wednesday, with DXY rising from lows of 102.01 to highs of 102.78 before pulling back modestly to finish the session around 1...
The Week Ahead – RBA and BoE Rate Decisions – AUDUSD, GBPUSD
Coming off a big week in Central Bank action, risk events are set to continue this week with the Reserve Bank of Australia and Bank of England rate decisions on Tuesday and Thursday respectively, topped off with the always important non-Farm payrolls out of the US on Friday, which are set to keep traders on their toes. Australia – RBA rate dec...
FX Analysis – EUR Underperforms on ugly PMIs, Rally in UST Yields Support USD,CAD Up on Back of Oil Rally.
FX markets traded in a holding pattern on Monday to start the week ahead of a deluge of big data to come. EU PMI’s were ugly though, all missing expectations, indicating a slowing economy but with sticky prices, raising the spectre of stagflation again and weeing the Euro underperform. FX WRAP USD was firmer on Monday, with a rise in the US...
The Week Ahead – FOMC, ECB, BoJ Rate Decisions, Aussie CPI Headline a Big Week in Markets
Global markets are heading into a bumper week of tier one economic releases, with the eagerly awaited rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan on the calendar. Also in the mix are key Inflation figures from the US , Europe and Australia to keep traders on their toes. US: FOMC looks set to hike 25bp US ...
The Rally on Wall St continues – Tech leads on soft US data, FX markets choppy – range bound
US equities pushed higher again in Monday’s session with soft US manufacturing data (lowering rate expectations from the Fed) counteracting weak Chinese figures during the Asian session. This saw the NASDAQ outperform, breaking through resistance and hitting its highest level since January 2022. FX Markets USD was flat on Monday, the US...
The Week Ahead – The charts to watch USD, GBP, AUD
The Dow Jones closed 100 points higher Friday, having its best week since March as US and global markets were solidly risk on solid US earnings and US data showing a cooling in inflation. The week ahead is looking to continue this theme with US data likely to hint at a softening growth story with industrial activity data set to remain subdued. U...