News & Analysis

Week Ahead – Central Banks, PMIs and Davos 2020

January 20, 2020

By Deepta Bolaky
 @DeeptaGOMarkets

Central Banks, PMIs and Davos 2020 

Investors are gearing up for a busy week ahead with major central bank meetings and a slew of economic data. Given that the major geopolitical tensions that roiled the markets at the start of the month have toned down, market participants will switch their attention back to economic data and rate decisions.

Central Banks 

European Central Banks (ECB)

Even though investors are not expecting any changes in this meeting, we note that the European Central Bank’s President, Christine Lagarde stated that a strategic review will start in January. There are also speculations that the ECB governing council members have received documents regarding the strategic review. 

We expect the review to the officially launched this Thursday. 

In 2019, the central bank set a record- low rate and re-started the controversial quantitative easing. The comments that economic data have been pointing to some signs of stabilization. Investors might expect a less dovish or slightly more hawkish tone.

Bank of Canada (BoC) 

The central bank is widely expected to leave its interest rate unchanged at 1.75% at Wednesday’s meeting. Amid the global backdrop, the BoC has remained resilient compared to its global peers. However, investors will be keen to monitor whether there is a shift in tone following the warnings signs seen towards the end of last year due to the moderation in the consumption, investment and employment sector. 

Bank of Japan (BoJ)

No changes are expected from the BOJ on its interest rates and its guidance on policy. Investors will expect an update on its economic projection following the stimulus package that was unveiled last month.

PMI Figures 

The week will end with a series of PMI figures for the Eurozone area, UK, Germany and the US.  The UK and Eurozone flash PMIs will stand out thanks to the removal of some uncertainties on the trade front and Brexit. Germany and the whole eurozone contracted in 2019 and investors will be keen to see whether improvement on the geopolitical front will brighten the manufacturing sector in the Eurozone.

Similarly, in the UK, investors will monitor the improvement in the manufacturing and services industry as a result of more certainty on Brexit. 

Australia 

While major central banks are expected to remain on hold, the Reserve Bank of Australia is among the few to still be expected to further rate cuts. The December jobs report will, therefore, be critical for providing guidance on the rate outlook. 

Other Key Economic Data

Tuesday 

Claimant Count Change, ILO Unemployment Rate, and Average Earnings (UK)
ZEW Surveys (Germany and Eurozone) 

Wednesday 

Consumer Price Index (Canada)
Housing Price Index, Existing Home Sales, and Chicago Fed National Activity Index (US) 

Thursday

Imports, Exports, All Industry Activity Index, and Leading Economic Index (Japan)
Consumer Price Index (New Zealand) 

Friday 

Commonwealth Bank Manufacturing PMI (Australia)
Consumer Price Index (Japan)

DAVOS 2020 

Climate change will be the hot topic at the World Economic Forum this year as all Davos participants have been asked to commit to a net-zero climate target: 

The organisers have also pay special attention to ensure that the “green” shift is also included in the way the event is being conducted. From the Congress centre layout to the food they are serving and the environmental- friendly transportation, the Forum is looking for ways to reduce their environmental footprint.

Davos 2020 will help investors to evaluate the focus toward ESG causes!

 

Tuesday, 21st January 2020
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