News & Analysis

Week Ahead: COVID-19: Crucial Days Ahead

July 6, 2020

By Deepta Bolaky
 @DeeptaGOMarkets

The World Health Organization reported a one-day high for global cases Saturday of 212,326. Investors will likely continue to evaluate the improving economic data, positive vaccine developments, massive fiscal stimulus, ultra-low levels of interest rates and central banks interventions against the increasing global coronavirus cases which could derail the path of the economic recovery.

The week ahead will be relatively quieter with a few key data releases across the week.

United States

JOLTS Job openings, Jobless Claims and ISM PMIs will likely stand out. Markets will likely continue to monitor the labour market for signs of improvement. Given that central banks have been pivotal in supporting the financial markets, Fed speech by the Vice-Chair Randal Quarles on Tuesday will likely gather some attention.

Australia

The RBA Interest Rate Decision and Statement will be the main event for the Australian markets. The RBA is widely expected to keep current policy settings and the interest rate at 0.25%. The attention will be mostly on the rate statement. The Antipodean currency will likely remain at the broader sentiment of the markets and the spike in Victorian Covid-19 cases. 

Eurozone 

Retail Sales figures and Germany’s Factory Orders and Industrial Production will stand out in a subdued week. On Wednesday, the European Commission will release economic growth forecasts which could impact the Euro.

UK

A muted week for the UK on the economic front but we expect Brexit-related developments to gather much attention with another round of talks scheduled this week.

Equity Markets

The global stock market has outperformed in the second quarter supported by the extremely loose monetary policies and massive government spending plans. Those intervention policies will likely continue to persist in the near term which is fuelling the confidence in holding riskier assets. Even though from a technical side, global stocks may be poised for more gains, the threat from the continuing spread of the virus cannot be ignored. 

Ahead of the earnings season which will kick-start in a week, the immediate attention will probably be on the spike of COVID-19 cases.

Commodities

Oil

Last week, the oil market found some support on the economic recovery narrative and bullish inventory reports:

  • American Petroleum Institute reported a larger-than-expected crude oil stock draw from previous 1.749M to -8.156M in June 26,
  • As per the EIA, commercial crude oil inventories in the United States decreased by 7.2 million barrels in the week ending June 26th

We expect traders to keep monitoring weekly reports and COVID-19 infections to gauge oil demand.

Gold

As risk sentiment improves following upbeat economic data and positive vaccine updates, Gold pared some of its recent gains. However, the rising number of virus cases and the risk of a second wave of infection remains the major concern that will keep supporting the precious metal.

Key Events Ahead

Monday
  • TD Securities Inflation (Australia)
  • Factory Orders (Germany)
  • Retail Sales (Eurozone)
  • Markit Services & Composite PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment Index, and ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices Paid (US)
  • Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey (Canada)
Tuesday
  • NZIER Business Confidence and GDT Price Index (New Zealand)
  • Overall Household Spending and Leading Economic Index (Japan)
  • RBA Interest Rate Decision and Rate Statement (Australia)
  • Industrial Production (Germany)
  • Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (Canada)
Wednesday
  • Current Account (Japan)
  • Unemployment Rate (Switzerland)
  • European Commission releases Economic Growth Forecasts (Eurozone)
 Thursday
  • Eurogroup Meeting (Eurozone)
  • Consumer Price Index (China)
  • Home Loans and Investment Lending for Homes (Australia)
  • Trade Balance (Germany)
  • Continuing and Initial Jobless Claims (US)
Friday
  • EcoFin Meeting (Eurozone)
  • Producer Price Index (US)
  • Unemployment Rate, Participation Rate, Average Hourly Wages, and Net Change in Employment (Canada)

By Deepta Bolaky
 @DeeptaGOMarkets

Tuesday, 07 June 2020 
Indicative Index Dividends
Dividends are in Points
ASX200WS30US500US2000NDX100CAC40STOXX50
0.24200.0160.01609.4133.082
ESP35ITA40FTSE100DAX30HK50JP225INDIA50
4.81400068.37900


Disclaimer: Articles and videos from GO Markets analysts are based on their independent analysis. Views expressed are of their own and of a ‘general’ nature. Advice (if any) are not based on the reader’s personal objectives, financial situation or needs.  Readers should, therefore, consider how appropriate the advice (if any) is to their objectives, financial situation and needs, before acting on the advice. For more information of trading, check out our forex trading courses.

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