News & Analysis

COVID-19 Cases in Europe, Tech War, Industrial and Sales Updates

August 10, 2020

By Deepta Bolaky
 @DeeptaGOMarkets

Another packed week for investors with the focus predominantly on the US-China tech war, the controversial executive orders for the US coronavirus relief, the growing number of COVID-19 cases in Europe, and leading economic releases. 

United States

Following signs of improvement in the manufacturing data and better-than-expected jobs report, investors will continue to monitor incoming economic data to determine the extent of the resurgence of the number of infections against economic recovery. Retail Sales will stand out this week as investors will try to gauge the impact of renewed lockdowns on the American shopper. In May, Retail Sales jumped to 18.2% – the highest level on record followed by an increase of 7.5% in June. The July monthly reading is expected to be lower at 1.7% given the lockdown restrictions. Industrial Production updates will also be eyed and are expected to increase by 3.3% in July.  

Australia & New Zealand

On the economic front, it will be a muted start of the week. Consumer Surveys and Jobs reports will dominate the news towards the end of the week. The stricter lockdown measures in Melbourne following the mounting number of coronavirus cases will likely negatively impact the employment data. The unemployment rate is expected to increase from 7.4% to 7.8%. The Australian dollar remains strong despite the virus woes but any worse-than-expected jobs figures may impact the uptrend of the local currency. Eyes are also on the clusters in New South Wales. 

In New Zealand, the RBNZ meeting will gather much attention. The RBNZ is expected to strike a similar tone as the RBA. We do not expect any policy changes in this meeting – we may see the expansion of the quantitative easing programme and further insights on the views of the central bank on negative interest rates.

China

Aside from the brewing tech war between the two most powerful countries, Retail Sales and Industrial Production figures will be the highlights.

UK

After the rebound seen in the manufacturing sector, attention will switch to the GDP figures and the employment data. The second-quarter GDP figure is expected to show a severe contraction of more than 20%. Manufacturing and Industrial Production are expected to improve as the country has eased lockdown restrictions. 

Equity Markets

The start of the week will probably be geared around the controversial executive orders of the US coronavirus relief package, the start of a new cold war between the US and China and the fears of a second wave in Europe against improving economic data.

Commodities

Gold

In the pandemic-induced environment and escalating geopolitical tensions, gold is shining bright. Last week, the precious metal rose above the $2,000 mark for the first time and reached a high of $2,072.25. Gold has been on an unstoppable rally recently as investors are hedging with safe-haven assets. A weaker US dollar is also helping the bullish momentum. The fundamentals remain bullish amidst the ongoing uncertainties.

Key Events Ahead

Monday

  • Consumer and Producer Price Index (China)
  • Unemployment Rate (Switzerland)

Tuesday

  • REINZ House Price Index (New Zealand)
  • Current Account (Japan)
  • BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales, Claimant Count, ILO Unemployment Rate, and Average Earnings (UK)
  • ZEW Survey – Current Situation and Economic Sentiment (Germany)
  • ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment (Eurozone)
  • Producer Price Index (US)

Wednesday

  • Westpac Consumer Confidence and Wage Price Index (Australia)
  • RBNZ Rate Statement, Interest Rate Decision, Policy Statement and Press Conference (New Zealand)
  • Manufacturing & Industrial Production, and Gross Domestic Product (UK)
  • FDI – Foreign Direct Investment (China)
  • 10-y Bond Auction (Germany)
  • Industrial Production (Eurozone)
  • NIESR GDP Estimate (UK)
  • Consumer Price Index and Monthly Budget Statement (US)

Thursday

  • Consumer Inflation Expectations, Full Time Employment, Employment Change and Unemployment Rate (Australia)
  • Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (Germany)
  • Jobless Claims (US)

Friday

  • Business NZ PMI (New Zealand)
  • NBS Press Conference, Industrial Production, and Retail Sales (China)
  • Gross Domestic Product (Eurozone)
  • Retail Sales, Nonfarm Productivity, Unit Labor Costs, Industrial Production and Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (US)

By Deepta Bolaky
 @DeeptaGOMarkets

Tuesday, 11 August 2020 
Indicative Index Dividends
Dividends are in Points
ASX200 WS30 US500 US2000 NDX100 CAC40 STOXX50
0 0 0.019 0.05 0 0 0
ESP35 ITA40 FTSE100 DAX30 HK50 JP225 INDIA50
0 0 0 0 0 0 0


Disclaimer: Articles and videos from GO Markets analysts are based on their independent analysis. Views expressed are of their own and of a ‘general’ nature. Advice (if any) are not based on the reader’s personal objectives, financial situation or needs.  Readers should, therefore, consider how appropriate the advice (if any) is to their objectives, financial situation and needs, before acting on the advice. For more information of trading, check out our forex trading courses.

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