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Preview: Non-Farm Payroll Announcement

3 September 2021 By Klavs Valters

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It’s the beginning of a new month which means that the Non-Farm Payroll figures will be released this week by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. The latest US jobs data will be released at 1:30 PM London time on Friday.

Why is the announcement important?

Non-Farm Payroll is one of the most closely watched indicators. It is considered the most wide-ranging measure of job creation in the United States. An increase in the non-farm payrolls would suggest rising employment and potential inflation pressure – which would mean a possible rate increase by the Federal Reserve. A decline would indicate a slowing economy – which would mean a possible interest rate cut. The measure accounts for around 80% of the workers who contribute to the Gross Domestic Product. It does not include those who work on farms and also excludes private households, non-profit workers, and government employees.

Expectations

In July, the total Non-Farm payroll employment increased by 943k above analysts’ expectation of 870k. The unemployment rate decreased by 0.5% to 5.4% vs. 5.7% expected. Most significant job gains were in leisure and hospitality, in local government education, and in professional and business services.

Analysts are expecting 750k jobs added in August. The unemployment rate is expected to decrease by 0.2% to 5.2%.

Non-Farm Payroll numbers since July 2020

July: 943k

June: 850k

May: 559k

April: 266k

March: 916k

February: 379k

January: 49k

December: -140k

November: 245k

October: 638k

September: 661k

August: 1,371k

July: 1,763k

The unemployment rates since July 2020

July: 5.4%

June: 5.9%

May: 5.8%

April: 6.1%

March: 6%

February: 6.2%

January: 6.3%

December: 6.7%

November: 6.7%

October: 6.9%

September: 7.9%

August: 8.4%

July: 10.2%

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

You can keep up to date with economic announcements and events by clicking here for our GO Markets Economic Calendar.

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