Preview: Non-Farm Payroll Announcement
5 November 2021It’s the beginning of a new month which means that the Non-Farm Payroll figures will be released this week by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. The latest US jobs data for October will be released at 12:30 PM London time on Friday.
Why is the announcement important?
Non-Farm Payroll is one of the most closely watched indicators. It is considered the most wide-ranging measure of job creation in the United States. An increase in the non-farm payrolls would suggest rising employment and potential inflation pressure – which would mean a possible rate increase by the Federal Reserve. A decline would indicate a slowing economy – which would mean a possible interest rate cut. The measure accounts for around 80% of the workers who contribute to the Gross Domestic Product. It does not include those who work on farms and also excludes private households, non-profit workers, and government employees.
Expectations
In September, the total Non-Farm payroll employment increased by 194k below analyst forecast of 500k. The unemployment rate decreased by 0.4% to 4.8%. Most significant job gains were in in leisure and hospitality, in professional and business services, in retail trade, and in transportation and warehousing.
Analysts are expecting 450k jobs added in October. The unemployment rate is expected to decrease further by 0.1% to 4.7%.
Non-Farm Payroll numbers since September 2020
September: 194k
August: 235k
July: 943k
June: 850k
May: 559k
April: 266k
March: 916k
February: 379k
January: 49k
December: -140k
November: 245k
October: 638k
September: 661k
The unemployment rates since September 2020
September: 4.8%
August: 5.2%
July: 5.4%
June: 5.9%
May: 5.8%
April: 6.1%
March: 6%
February: 6.2%
January: 6.3%
December: 6.7%
November: 6.7%
October: 6.9%
September: 7.9%
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
You can keep up to date with economic announcements and events by clicking here for our GO Markets Economic Calendar.
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