News & Analysis

Preview: Non-Farm Payroll Announcement

5 November 2021 By Klavs Valters


It’s the beginning of a new month which means that the Non-Farm Payroll figures will be released this week by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. The latest US jobs data for October will be released at 12:30 PM London time on Friday.

Why is the announcement important?

Non-Farm Payroll is one of the most closely watched indicators. It is considered the most wide-ranging measure of job creation in the United States. An increase in the non-farm payrolls would suggest rising employment and potential inflation pressure – which would mean a possible rate increase by the Federal Reserve. A decline would indicate a slowing economy – which would mean a possible interest rate cut. The measure accounts for around 80% of the workers who contribute to the Gross Domestic Product. It does not include those who work on farms and also excludes private households, non-profit workers, and government employees.


In September, the total Non-Farm payroll employment increased by 194k below analyst forecast of 500k. The unemployment rate decreased by 0.4% to 4.8%. Most significant job gains were in in leisure and hospitality, in professional and business services, in retail trade, and in transportation and warehousing.

Analysts are expecting 450k jobs added in October. The unemployment rate is expected to decrease further by 0.1% to 4.7%.

Non-Farm Payroll numbers since September 2020

September: 194k

August: 235k

July: 943k

June: 850k

May: 559k

April: 266k

March: 916k

February: 379k

January: 49k

December: -140k

November: 245k

October: 638k

September: 661k

The unemployment rates since September 2020

September: 4.8%

August: 5.2%

July: 5.4%

June: 5.9%

May: 5.8%

April: 6.1%

March: 6%

February: 6.2%

January: 6.3%

December: 6.7%

November: 6.7%

October: 6.9%

September: 7.9%

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

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