News & Analysis
News & Analysis

Preview: Non-Farm Payroll Announcement

6 May 2022 By Klavs Valters

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It’s the beginning of a new month which means that the Non-Farm Payroll figures will be released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. The latest US jobs data for April will be released at 1:30pm London time on Friday.

Why is the announcement important?

Non-Farm Payroll is one of the most closely watched indicators. It is considered the most wide-ranging measure of job creation in the United States. An increase in the non-farm payrolls would suggest rising employment and potential inflation pressure – which would mean a possible rate increase by the Federal Reserve. A decline would indicate a slowing economy – which would mean a possible interest rate cut. The measure accounts for around 80% of the workers who contribute to the Gross Domestic Product. It does not include those who work on farms and also excludes private households, non-profit workers, and government employees.

Expectations

In March, the total Non-Farm payroll employment increased by 431k, falling short of analyst forecast of 490k. Most significant job gains were in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, retail trade, and manufacturing. The unemployment rate decreased by 0.2% to 3.6%.

Analysts are expecting 391k jobs added in April. The unemployment rate is expected to decrease by 0.1% to 3.6%.

Non-Farm Payroll numbers since March 2021

March: 431k

February 2022: 678k

January 2022: 467k

December 2021: 199k

November 2021: 210k

October 2021: 531k

September 2021: 194k

August 2021: 235k

July 2021: 943k

June 2021: 850k

May 2021: 559k

April 2021: 266k

March 2021: 916k

The unemployment rates since March 2021

March: 3.6%

February 2022: 3.8%

January 2022: 4%

December 2021: 3.9%

November 2021: 4.2%

October 2021: 4.6%

September 2021: 4.8%

August 2021: 5.2%

July 2021: 5.4%

June 2021: 5.9%

May 2021: 5.8%

April 2021: 6.1%

March 2021: 6%

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

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