News & Analysis
News & Analysis

Preview: Non-Farm Payroll announcement

5 August 2022 By Klavs Valters

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It’s the beginning of a new month which means that the Non-Farm Payroll figures will be released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. The latest US jobs data for July will be released at 1:30pm London time on Friday.

Why is the announcement important?

 

Non-Farm Payroll is one of the most closely watched indicators. It is considered the most wide-ranging measure of job creation in the United States. An increase in the non-farm payrolls would suggest rising employment and potential inflation pressure – which would mean a possible rate increase by the Federal Reserve. A decline would indicate a slowing economy – which would mean a possible interest rate cut. The measure accounts for around 80% of the workers who contribute to the Gross Domestic Product. It does not include those who work on farms and also excludes private households, non-profit workers, and government employees.

 

Expectations

 

In June, the total Non-Farm payroll employment increased by 372k, above analyst forecast of 268k. Most significant job gains were in professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, and health care. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.6%.

Analysts are expecting 250k jobs added in July. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.6%.

 

Non-Farm Payroll numbers since June 2021

 

June 2022: 372k

May 2022: 390k

April 2022: 428k

March 2022: 431k

February 2022: 678k

January 2022: 467k

December 2021: 199k

November 2021: 210k

October 2021: 531k

September 2021: 194k

August 2021: 235k

July 2021: 943k

June 2021: 850k

 

The unemployment rates since June 2021

 

June: 3.6%

May 2022: 3.6%

April 2022: 3.6%

March 2022: 3.6%

February 2022: 3.8%

January 2022: 4%

December 2021: 3.9%

November 2021: 4.2%

October 2021: 4.6%

September 2021: 4.8%

August 2021: 5.2%

July 2021: 5.4%

June 2021: 5.9%

 

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

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