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Preview: Non-Farm Payroll Announcement

6 August 2021 By Klavs Valters

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Preview: Non-Farm Payroll Announcement

It’s the beginning of a new month which means that the Non-Farm Payroll figures will be released this week by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. The latest US jobs data will be released at 1:30 PM London time on Friday.

Why is the announcement important?

Non-Farm Payroll is one of the most closely watched indicators. It is considered the most wide-ranging measure of job creation in the United States. An increase in the non-farm payrolls would suggest rising employment and potential inflation pressure – which would mean a possible rate increase by the Federal Reserve. A decline would indicate a slowing economy – which would mean a possible interest rate cut. The measure accounts for around 80% of the workers who contribute to the Gross Domestic Product. It does not include those who work on farms and also excludes private households, non-profit workers, and government employees.

Expectations

In June, the total Non-Farm payroll employment increased by 850k above analysts expectation of 690k. The unemployment rate increased by 0.1% to 5.9% vs. 5.7% expected. Most significant job gains were in leisure and hospitality, public and private education, professional and business services, retail trade, and other services.

Analysts are expecting 870k jobs added in July. The unemployment rate is expected to decrease by 0.2% to 5.7%.

 

Non-Farm Payroll numbers since June 2020

June: 850k

May: 559k

April: 266k

March: 916k

February: 379k

January: 49k

December: -140k

November: 245k

October: 638k

September: 661k

August: 1,371k

July: 1,763k

June: 4,800k

 

The unemployment rates since June 2020

June: 5.9%

May: 5.8%

April: 6.1%

March: 6%

February: 6.2%

January: 6.3%

December: 6.7%

November: 6.7%

 

Non-Farm Payroll numbers since May 2020

May: 559k

April: 266k

March: 916k

February: 379k

January: 49k

December: -140k

November: 245k

October: 638k

September: 661k

August: 1,371k

July: 1,763k

June: 4,800k

May: 2,509k

The unemployment rates since May 2020

May: 5.8%

April: 6.1%

March: 6%

February: 6.2%

January: 6.3%

December: 6.7%

November: 6.7%

October: 6.9%

September: 7.9%

August: 8.4%

July: 10.2%

June: 11.1%

May: 13.3%

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

You can keep up to date with economic announcements and events by clicking here for our GO Markets Economic Calendar.

 

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