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Economic Updates
Market Analysis – USD and yields rise on Fedspeak, Oil tumbles on OPEC+
USD bounced back in Thursday’s session with the US Dollar Index (DXY) recouping the weeks losses after finding some technical support at its 61.8 Fib level and an extreme oversold RSI reading. Fundamentally, some hawkish Fedspeak from voting member Daly, where she commented that it is too soon to call the end on rate hikes and the battle against ...
December 1, 2023
Read More > The Week Ahead – Charts to watch EURUSD, Crude Oil, Gold
Global markets enter the new week in a risk on tone with as market participants are positioning for no more rate hikes out of the Federal Reserve and pricing in cuts from Q2 2024. In last week’s low volatility, holiday shortened week this translated to a steady rise in equities (DOW hitting 3-month highs), a steady decline in the US dollar (DXY h...
November 27, 2023
Read More > APAC Open – Equites and USD up, Gold down, Oil takes a wild ride.
US equities continued to climb in a broad rally ahead of the Thanksgiving break I Wednesdays session with the Dow Jones index up almost 200 points and hitting its highest level since mid-August. In FX markets, the USD was bid after better than expected employment data saw Jobless claims come in at 209k vs the expected 226k, US consumer s...
November 23, 2023
Read More > Tech leads US equity rally, USD and yields fall again, AUDUSD breaks out, USDJPY breaks down
US equities enjoyed a broad rally, with tech leading after news that recently ousted OpenAI CEO Sam Altman had been snapped up by Microsoft, the news helped MSFT and AI Chip maker NVDA stock rally over 2% each and pushing the Nasdaq to be the top performing US index. More weak data out of the US as well with leading indicators missing expect...
November 21, 2023
Read More > The Week Ahead – Charts to watch , AUDUSD, Dow, Gold
Last week price action hammered home the narrative that markets are still dancing to the tune of the Fed, with a broad rally in equities and a fall in yields and the USD being kickstarted by a cooler than expected US CPI figure and accelerating on further weak US economic data. We are looking for a quieter week ahead after the recent big swings,...
November 20, 2023
Read More > Gold and Oil surge on Geopolitical risk, USD pumps and dumps as Fed turns dovish
USD had a volatile session on Monday seeing two-way price action, with geopolitical risks from the conflict in the Middle East seeing DXY gap higher on the open and rally to a high of 106.60. The move higher dramatically reversed after dovish Fed commentary from both FOMC members Logan and Jefferson who acknowledged the recent move higher in yields...
October 10, 2023
Read More > Charts to watch this week – Gold and Oil gap up on Mid-East turmoil, US Dollar
Gold and Oil have unsurprisingly gapped higher on Mondays open after the weekend’s hostilities in the Middle East, Gold reclaiming it’s safe haven status and Oil opening 2% higher on supply problems from fears of a protracted and escalating conflict. Geo-political events are looking to dominate the market narrative this week, though key US i...
October 9, 2023
Read More > Markets to watch this week – USDJPY, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, Gold, Oil
Global markets enter Q4 this week on a downbeat mood after a shellacking of risk assets in Q3 seeing the S&P 500 having its worst quarter in a year. The “higher for longer” narrative coming out of the Federal reserve and other Central banks over the last month pushing yields higher, (the US 10-year yield at 16-year highs), pressuring risk a...
October 2, 2023
Read More > Crucial Moment for EUR/USD as Ascending Channel Faces Test
The EUR/USD pair finds itself once again testing the lower boundary of its well established ascending channel. This channel kicked off in early 2023 and has held firm ever since. This week will be important to see if a break in this pattern occurs and a new downward trend begins. Traders are eagerly awaiting a breakout from the channel, which ...
September 4, 2023
Read More > US stocks rally in quiet session, Yields and USD down, AUD holds major support.
US indices finished in the green, managing to hold onto gains following an upside boost from the Asian session. Asian bourses broadly rallied after Chinese stocks were buoyed by authorities taking measures to help boost their local market by cutting stamp duty on stock trades. With markets being risk-on predictable drops in the USD and yield...
August 29, 2023
Read More > The Week Ahead – Powell and Jackson Hole, EU PMI’s, Japanese Inflation
Global markets enter the final full week of August on a downbeat risk-sentiment after another losing week in US equities saw the Nasdaq 100 have its lowest weekly close since June. The hangover from the surprise Fitch downgrade of US debt continues to keep yields elevated, the US 10 Year stubbornly holding above 4%, creating a headwind for risk ass...
August 21, 2023
Read More > Asian Open – Hawkish FOMC sees US stocks slide again, USD rally. JPY clobbered, AUD dips ahead of Jobs Data.
Asian indices are looking to open soft in Thursday’s session after major US Indices extended their sell-off in Wednesdays session on stronger than expected US data and a “hawkish” FOMC minutes where Fed officials saw ‘upside risks’ to inflation possibly leading to more rate hikes. The Russell 2000 led losses (-1.28%) in the US on the cont...
August 17, 2023
Read More > Big-Tech leads US Stocks lower, Gold slides again, Bonds bid ahead of CPI
Major US indexes were lower in in a choppy session on Wednesday as traders position themselves for today’s pivotal CPI reading out of the US. Tech led the declines with the Nasdaq being the worst performing index, dropping 162 points (-1.17%), the NDX100 closing below its 50 Day MA for the first time since early March. AI exuberance seeming to lo...
August 10, 2023
Read More > The Week Ahead – US inflation, UK GDP headline, DXY and GBP outlook
Inflation readings are the main theme for this week in economic releases with CPI readings from the US and China the quarterly NZ inflation expectations all set to test traders’ predictions on rates from Central Banks who all seem to be on “data dependent” mode. US: CPI and PPI readings With a market split on the Fed’s next move in th...
August 7, 2023
Read More > Non-Farm Payrolls Preview – Charts to watch – DXY – US10Y
Todays NFP figure out of the USA is shaping up to be a pivotal moment in market expectations as to whether we’ve seen peak rates from The Federal Reserve, or if there is more to come and the ramifications that will have for the FX market. NFP figures are always interesting, traditionally the biggest market moving figure of the month on the US ...
August 4, 2023
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