Tin tức & phân tích thị trường

Investors are currently bracing for further volatility in the global markets as Russia’s troops have been deployed into eastern Ukraine. The heightened tensions between Russia and Ukraine reached a tipping point last week when the Kremlin had officially recognised regions in eastern Ukraine held by separatists (supported by Russia). Russia ordered troops to enter Ukraine on a peacekeeping mission.

The western countries have responded promptly, with the UK and US among the first countries to reprimand Russian actions with their first round of restrictive economic sanctions. The US had unveiled various sanctions targeting Russia, this included limits on sovereign debt and Russia’s two biggest banks, Promsvyazbank and VEB, who both support the military. A statement from The White House described these measures as the “first tranche of swift and severe costs on Russia” and said the Treasury would “determine that any institution in the financial services sector of the Russian Federation economy is a target for further sanctions.” Australia also followed the US's lead and applied sanctions on Russia aimed at the country’s elites and commercial sector, including transport, energy companies and banks.

Investors had a major focus on Energy commodities given Russia’s strong supply of gas to Europe, especially at a time of strong demand and constrained output that has plagued the region for much of the past year. Here are some thoughts from Vivek Dhar, analyst covering energy commodities for CBA, and Shane Oliver, chief economist for AMP Capital. Mr.

Dhar describes the initial US sanctions as relatively tame given they target sovereign debt, which is low for the Russian economy. Instead, Germany’s decision to suspend the certification of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline poses a more serious response to the escalating situation, given it would have eased the region’s gas shortages. “The extent of Russia’s incursion will likely see sanctions escalate in turn. A full‑scale invasion of Ukraine certainly opens the door to sanctions on Russia’s oil and gas exports,” he added, which could push the price of oil beyond $US100 per barrel.

Mr. Oliver believes there was a risk Russia could itself cut off supply of gas to Europe, “with a potential flow-on to oil demand at a time when conflict may threaten supply”, adding to anticipated inflation. Investors are worried about a stagflationary shock to Europe and, to a lesser degree, the global economy.

All in all, the crisis between Russia and Ukraine is still ongoing and there will certainly be further actions taken by countries across the world. As investors' uncertainty slowly rises, the global markets will adjust with every major update. Keeping up to date with other countries’ sanctions and reaction to the invasion can be a rewarding task as opportunities can present themselves.

If you have spotted an opportunity to invest in the global markets and don’t already have a trading account, you can register for an account at GO Markets.

For years, gold has been considered a store of value. As a physical commodity, it cannot be printed like money, and its value is not impacted by interest rate decisions made by a government. Because gold has historically maintained its value over time, it serves as a form of insurance against adverse economic events.

When an adverse event occurs that lingers for a while, investors tend to pile their funds into gold, which drives up its price due to increased demand. There have been many instances in our history, where war has ignited investment into gold. One particular moment in the 21 st century which signaled a strong movement into gold as a safe haven was the unfortunate event which occurred on 9/11.

Another was the Global Financial Crisis in 2008. In both instances gold’s price sored and it returned higher profits than any other financial asset. It’s important to understand at this stage, even though gold has these unique characteristics, it is not a long-term solution for a portfolio hedge or as a safe heaven.

Negative news tends to come after more negative news, which changes investor behaviors and tends to worry investors who in turn would sell their positions in gold, thus sending the price down to original levels or even lower. Some Key Points Safe haven investments offer protection from market downswings. Precious metals, currencies, and stocks from particular sectors have been identified as safe havens in the past.

Safe havens in one period of market volatility may react differently in another, so there is no consistent safe haven other than portfolio diversity. Latest Price Action Prior to Russia’s intentions of an invasion into Ukraine and fears of war, which is creating upheaval in the political landscape in Europe and around the world, gold was steadily rising in a sideways movement. However this past week you would have noticed a sharp price action jump 3% from $1892.00 to $1973.00 USD (see below), a price that we haven’t seen since 1 st of January 2021 and there is a strong feeling that it could push past this figure as Russia ramps up its invasion into eastern Ukraine.

If this happens, we could start to see higher highs as a result, as investors are spooked by the potential turmoil and destabilization. Gold or XAUUSD, can be accessible in different forms. You can purchase gold bullion in a number of ways: through an online dealer, or even a local dealer or collector.

A pawn shop may also sell gold. You are advised to note gold's spot price – the price per ounce right now in the market – as you're buying, so that you can make a fair deal. You could also find access to gold in the following ways: Gold Futures, ETFs that own gold, Mining Stocks, ETFs that own mining stocks, or you if you wish to trade it, you could use CFDs, where you can trade the value of the shiny metal when it goes up or down.

Visit our website here to get started with a CFD trading account and start taking advantage of opportunities. Sources: www.bankrate.com, Investopedia, Tradingview.

Since the recent crisis in Europe, you would have noticed a few things in the stock market which have directly or indirectly affected your normal day to day life, as a motorist one of the first things that you would have taken note of, is the price of fuel. Only a fortnight ago petrol prices for unleaded fuel was sold for $149.99 per litre (APCO service station Cranbourne), today’s price of $186.998 (price as of 24 hours ago) marks a clear sign that prices are rising and, in most cases, have hit above $2 per litre with people predicting that it will get worst before it gets better. We will take a look at why the EV market may be positioned to take advantage of this economic pain.

EV cars have long been in the process of becoming a cleaner alternative to combustible engine vehicles. Since climate change has been at the forefront of politicians and corporations’ agendas, companies such as Tesla have managed to carve out a large portion of the market for themselves and be the leading light into the new generations of cars. Whether that be by producing the latest car in the Roadster or providing companies with “regulatory credits” which allow the companies to reach emission targets set by governance in their respective countries.

In a push to reduce carbon emissions, governments around the world have introduced incentives for automakers to develop electric vehicles in return for regulatory credits. Because Tesla only manufacturers EV cars, they get free credits and as they have a surplus amount, they can sell these credits to their competitors for them to be able to meet the latest emissions targets. That’s one way in which Tesla profits hugely from their vision as they are able to make 100% profits on these credits.

As climate change reels its head and costs of fuel soars, many believe that EVs are the best alternative to an old age problem. However for EV cars to be successfully incorporated in our communities, there has to be a few advances in infrastructure including more regular charging stations, and improved battery life, with many currently working on producing longer lasting, quicker charging and more affordable batteries. As well as this, the price of EV vehicles would need to come in line with economy combustible engine vehicles to make them more desirable.

The infrastructure for electric-vehicle charging continues to expand. In 2019, there were about 7.3 million chargers worldwide, of which about 6.5 million were private, light-duty vehicle slow chargers in homes, multi-dwelling buildings and workplaces. Convenience, cost-effectiveness and a variety of support policies (such as preferential rates, equipment purchase incentives, and rebates) are the main drivers for the prevalence of private charging.

Market Performance: Sales of electric cars topped 2.1 million globally in 2019, surpassing 2018 – already a record year – to boost the stock to 7.2 million electric cars. Electric cars, which accounted for 2.6% of global car sales and about 1% of global car stock in 2019, registered a 40% year-on-year increase. Companies leading the way in manufacturing of EV cars and companies working alongside in infrastructure, battery life development and electricity providers in the field are: TESLA Volkswagen Group BMW Hyundai/KIA Jaguar Land Rover Schneider Electric SE Siemens AG ABB Eaton Corporation ChargePoint, Inc.

Webasto Group EVBox B.V. Blink Charging, Co. EFACEC Popular mentions to Delta Electronics, Inc. (Taiwan), Leviton Manufacturing Co., Inc. (U.S.), Alfen (Netherlands), NewMotion B.V. (Netherlands), Star Charge (China), SemaConnect (U.S.), Robert Bosch GmbH (Germany), and ClipperCreek Inc. (U.S.).

Some of the key players in both car manufacturing, infrastructure and battery performance which investors are keeping a close eye on, in order to take advantage of potential opportunities within the stock market. As we can gather from the research, figures and public opinion as well as Geopolitical issues affecting prices of energy, we can conclude that a change to EV cars is not longer just a pipedream but a very potential reality, with governments aligned with corporations and the public in wanting to have a change of direction from combustible engines to electricity charged vehicles. We would be able to see a huge increase or EV cars on our roads within the next few years.

Sources: CNBC, iea.org, Google, meticulousblog.org

What is an Expert Advisor (EA)? Expert Advisors (EAs) are trading software that automatically run and trade based on their preprogrammed rules for initiating, managing, and exiting trades in the market. These automated trading systems are very popular among traders and are widely used on the Metatrader 4 and 5 platforms.

For most traders, EAs are primarily used for Forex, although they can be used on any market that’s available on the platform. These can be purchased prebuilt online from a developer or created to automate an existing strategy being used. There are many reasons why traders use them, and I will explain some of the main advantages and disadvantages.

Advantages of using an EA: Discipline - these programs are set to certain parameters and will manage your positions based on the programmed strategy. Using a set of yes/no triggers it will make trading decisions and act on them instantly without changing their decisions like humans would do. It will also manage risk based on your risk settings, so you do not overexpose your account.

Timesaving – there is only so much time a trader can look at the charts for trading opportunities before getting tired while the markets are open. An EA can monitor the charts 24 hours per day and open and close positions or even provide alerts which can save time. Emotionless – this plays a huge role in the decision making for traders.

When trading with real money traders tend to make emotional decisions and break their strategy from fear or greed. An EA removes this element and will stick to the original plan although manually intervention can still be done. Backtesting – you can backtest an EA to see whether the strategy has been profitable in the past on multiple markets.

Although these can give you confidence to use them, it’s important to keep in mind that past performance is not an indicator for future performance. Disadvantages of using an EA Technical failures – for an expert advisor to work, your platform needs to be open and running at all times which means if you experience technical issues such as a crash, software update, power outages, connection problems then this will effect the EA. Additional cost of VPS – this is a dedicated private server which allows you to remove some of the technical challenges when using an expert advisor.

There are benefits of lower latency and faster execution and also the peace of the mind that the EA is running on a private server which can be accessed from any location. It typically costs around A$30 per month to have this access. World events – an EA is programmed to trade based on technical parameters, which means should there be an unexpected world event or news announcement, this would have an impact on your trades as the the market moves in response to them.

Doesn’t teach how to trade – these are coded to trade certain parameters therefore unless you understand how to code, you can only watch. Although there are many EAs which make money for people who can’t trade, if they are unprofitable then it’s back to the drawing board; that could mean finding another EA or learning to trade. Here are example how an Expert Advisor looks running on MT4 platform: If you are interested to use an Expert Advisor and seeing how these can perform and the results, you can find them on MQL5.com.

This is the largest community for developers and signal providers to showcase their systems. You will find some for free and some that will need a monthly subscriptions to have access to them. You can run expert advisors on a GO Markets trading account.

If you need any help setting them up please contact our support team.

The Volatility Contraction Pattern, (VCP) is a famous trading pattern identified and dissected by Market Wizard, Mark Minervini. The premise of the pattern is that stocks in long term up trends will pause and consolidate as some holders exit their positions and the stock is accumulated again by buyers in the market. The chart pattern can provide opportunities for powerful break outs and can be used across any time frame.

This allows traders to jump in on potential moves before they explode. Mechanics of the pattern The background of the pattern is relatively simple. The stock has been previously rising in an uptrend and has found some resistance.

It then moves into a period of consolidation categorised by 2-6 retracements with each one being smaller than the previous one. The volume should usually be decreasing as the chart moves to the right. The pattern culminates in a powerful break out that can often be long lasting.

The key for this pattern is that there needs to be a contraction of volatility as the chart moves from the left to the right. This highlights that the volume available is decreasing and becoming scarce. In addition, the more dramatic in volume, the more likely that the move will be explosive.

Below the breakout is accompanied by an increase in the relative volume. In the chart below for Natural Gas, the decrease in volume can be associated with the contracting candlestick pattern. This occurs prior to the break of the long-term resistance.

The breakthrough was also associated with a large amount of buying volume. The VCP can manifest itself in other patterns such as a cup and handle patterns. The key is that the candlesticks must be decreasing volatility.

A resistance level is a key tool in technical analysis, indicating when an asset has reached a price level that market participants are unwilling to surpass. Resistance levels are often used in conjunction with support levels, or the point at which traders are unwilling to let an asset's price drop much lower. To understand this fully, it’s important to understand how support and resistance works in general.

A support line is when a price hits a low point (on the selling side) and resistance is when the price hits a high (on the buying side). If the prices rebound back to this price or continue to hit this price without surpassing it, it then starts to become a key resistance or support level. As a rule of thumb when using technical analysis, these tools become very important for some traders.

This is due to those points offering various outcomes. Whether they are a Bounce or a Break, essentially meaning, does the price hit the support/resistance and comes back (Bounce) or does it go through the support/resistance lines (Breaks). It is important to also use other indicators to accompany your technical analysis, as these movements could also easily become reversals or break outs, meaning, instead of them following your prognosis the price does the opposite.

When a price has been rejected various times, it builds an even stronger key resistance. Trading volume and sentiment can help to propel a price past this point and some of the biggest movements come after a price breaks a key resistance. Using a current trend (Fig 1) and a hypothetical trend (Fig 2), let’s take the daily timeframe for BTCUSD as an example (below).

The daily candle has broken through a key resistance of $41,000 as shown on figure 1. If a trader identifies this, they can do one of two things; trade it aggressively and place a trade as it breaks through or trade it conservatively and wait for the former resistance line to become the new support line before placing a trade (so wait for the price to bounce off as outlined on the drawn projection and circled on figure 2). Figure 1.

Figure 2. This technical analysis can be used for any asset you wish to trade: it’s transferrable and key in identifying entry or exit points of trades. By learning to spot the patterns and combining this with knowledge of trading volume and sentiment, you can start to understand the markets better.

Sources: Babypips, Investopedia, @sell9000 Twitter.