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Markets enter the new week with risk-on firmly the narrative with all three major US indexes hitting all-time highs last week. In FX markets, the positive market sentiment has seen the march higher in the US Dollar hit resistance and cyclical currencies AUD, NZD and GBP bounce. Ahead this week, traders have a slew of risk events to navigate with Central Bank meetings in Canada, Japan and Europe set to headline, also some big US data in Q4 GDP and the PCE inflation reading set to move FX markets.

Charts to Watch USDCAD – Bank of Canada set to hold after hot CPI A hotter than expected December inflation reading out of Canada presumably will make any meaningful dovish shift from the BoC very unlikely in this week’s policy meeting with markets fully pricing in a hold from the central bank. The 2024 rally in USDCAD hit resistance at the 50% fib level last week and pulled back sharply to test the lower trend line support late in the week. Key levels to watch will be the 50% fib level to the upside (1.3541) if the Bank does confound analysts and take a dovish turn.

If the bank strikes a hawkish tone then the trendline support followed by the big figure at 1.34 to the downside. EURUSD – to pushback or not pushback In December’s policy meeting the ECB basically announced the end of the current rate hiking cycle. Since then markets have priced in an aggressive trajectory of ECB rate cuts this year against the backdrop of a slowing EZ economy.

Are the markets being too dovish in their predictions? This weeks ECB meeting may settle it if we see a hawkish pushback, or no pushback at all. EURUSD set new 2024 lows last week, breaking the key 1.09 support level, which has now turned into resistance.

This will be a key level to watch this week to see if it can re-establish itself as support, or continue as a cap to the upside. USDJPY - BoJ to maintain YCC No surprises are expected from the BoJ on Thursday, with the bank look set to maintain its YCC policy and negative short-term rate policy. It’s more likely any policy shift will come after the March annual wage negotiations, though the BoJ have been known to surprise before.

USDJPY has risen sharply in 2024, at these levels it does look a little overbought as it has streaked ahead of the US10Y-JP10Y yield differential which has been the main driver of this pair in recent past. We are also approaching the 150 level, where chatter of intervention may start up. The weeks full calendar at the link below: https://www.gomarkets.com/au/economic-calendar/

FX traders come into the new week with an uptick in tier one economic releases to look forward to after a very slow start to the year volatility-wise. Australian and US employment figures, UK CPI and US retail sales look to headline from Tuesday onwards (Monday is a US public holiday) The Charts to watch: AUDUSD AUDUSD has struggled to find any real direction in the last week of trading after a marked decline to start the year. The pair has whipsawed in a tight range from 0.6735 to the upside with a lower range boundary of 0.6645.

With the market still undecided on the RBA’s moves going forward (peak rates? cuts?) Thursday’s job report could see the Aussie find some direction, with the above range levels the key levels to watch. After November’s bumper figure a surprise to the downside this time round could be on the cards. GBPUSD The uptrend GBPUSD has travelled in since October has petered out somewhat in 2024 to date with Cable also trading in a directionless range for the last week.

For chartists there is a multitude of important levels to watch coming into the new week. Upper trendline and cycle high resistance along with lower trendline and cycle low support being the key levels to watch this week. To add to the mix for fundamental traders we have UK CPI and retail sales along with another speaking engagement for BoE governor Bailey.

USDJPY Bucking the trend of the low volatility of other pairs, USDJPY has had s harp rally so far in 2024, following US10-JP10 yield differentials higher. Last weeks move higher in the pair saw a disconnect in the relationship and USDJPY could struggle to push much higher unless this differential turns around. US economic releases this week will play a big part in where those yields go, with retail sales, employment and consumer sentiment all due to hit the wires from Wednesday onwards. 146 to the upside and 144 to the downside the key levels to watch for the chartists.

Full weeks calendar at the link below: https://www.gomarkets.com/au/economic-calendar/

Global markets enter the second week of the new year in cooldown mode with risk assets taking a hit after the red-hot finish to 2023. The NASDAQ having its worst start to a year since 1999, dropping almost 4% on the week, risk sensitive currencies AUD and NZD following not far behind. FX traders have a slew of CPI reports in the coming week to look forward to, with inflation readings out of Switzerland, Australia, China and the US that have the potential to get FX markets moving.

Charts to Watch Gold – XAUUSD Gold faltered last week as higher yields and a US dollar on tear weighed on the precious metal. Attempts by the bulls to push through and hold the key 2070 level were rebuffed and saw XAUUSD drop to a low of 2025 in Fridays NFP inspired volatile session. This weeks US CPI figure will be a big test of the markets pricing of Fed rate cuts, hotter than expected and gold could take another leg down with that 2070 resistance level capping the upside.

Cooler than expected could see the bulls make another attempt to breach and hold that level as support. AUDUSD AUDUSD didn’t have a great week either, having its biggest weekly drop since November. Decembers surge higher in this pair did look like to far too fast when looking at the AU and US rate differential, AUDUSD also hit a zone of resistance between 0.68 – 0.69 where sellers managed to turn the pair around.

This week’s Aussie, Chinese and US CPI readings all set to causing some volatility in the pair. Key level to watch to the upside is the resistance starting at 0.6800, to the downside the big figure at 0.6700 has lent some short-term support to this pair. US Dollar Index - DXY The US dollar has had a resurgence to start 2024 with DXY pushing through key levels 101 and 102 with ease.

Resistance at 102.57, where upside faltered in December and August ’23, has come into play and a couple of attempts to breach were rejected last week. This level also lines up with the 61.8% Fib level measured from the July lows to October highs and will be the key level to watch coming into the US CPI reading. Full calendar of the week’s economic announcements at the link below: https://www.gomarkets.com/au/economic-calendar/

Equity markets enter the second last week of 2023 on a roll, with US equities rallying for seven straight weeks and seeing all time highs in the Dow. The risk on rally was turbo charged last week after a dovish pivot from the US Fed in the December meeting saw yields and the Dollar tank and everything else bid heavily with rallies in Gold, Oil, equities, and other currencies. Looking ahead to this week, we do have a quieter calendar but there a are couple of key figures due for traders to keep an eye on, including the Feds favoured inflation gauge released on Friday.

Charts To Watch GBPJPY With the Bank of Japan set to release their latest monetary policy on Tuesday and UK CPI released Wednesday sets the scene for some volatility in this pair this week. The BoJ is expected to stand pat this time and seek gradual steps towards policy normalization. Traders will be watching for any hints of a BoJ pivot, and we could see a decent move in the Yen if they are forthcoming.

UK CPI will also be of note, after the Bank of England (unlike the Fed) pushed back somewhat against dovish rate expectations in their meeting last week, a figure outside range, especially to the downside should see a move in GBP as rates markets re-price. A widening gap in UK and JP 10 year yield differentials also putting pressure on the pair to the downside. AUDUSD AUDUSD rallied strongly last week on a weak USD and improved risk sentiment propping up the pair.

The 200 Day SMA which AUDUSD had been revolving around was broken decisively to the upside and saw AUDUSD hit 4-month highs before finding some resistance around 0.6728. Tuesday the RBA will be releasing their minutes from the December rate meeting where they could push back at the market’s view that rates have definitely peaked which would lend the AUD another tailwind. Friday see the US core PCE inflation figure released, where it is expected to hold steady at 0.2% for the month on month figure, though a beat to the upside could certainly test the market’s expectations of a dovish Fed going forward.

The weeks full calendar at the link below: GO Markets Economic Calendar

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Jobless claims refer to a weekly statistic published by the U.S. Department of Labor, indicating the number of individuals applying for unemployment insurance benefits. These claims are categorised into two groups: initial claims, encompassing first-time filers, and continuing claims, representing those who were already receiving unemployment benefits but remain unemployed.

These figures serve as significant leading indicators, offering insights into the employment landscape and overall economic well-being. They provide valuable data about the state of employment and the economy, making them a crucial tool for assessing economic health. Key Takeaways Measurement of Unemployment: Jobless claims indicate the number of people unemployed at a specific time.

Initial Jobless Claims: These represent new applicants for unemployment benefits who have recently become unemployed. Continuing Jobless Claims: This category includes individuals who continue to receive unemployment benefits due to ongoing unemployment. Economic Significance: A rising number of jobless claims, indicating more people willing to work but unable to find jobs, is often a concerning sign for the economy.

Volatility and Monitoring: Weekly jobless claims can fluctuate significantly. Therefore, economists often track the moving four-week average to provide a more stable and accurate representation of unemployment trends over time. Understanding Jobless Claims Jobless claims, reported weekly by the Department of Labor (DOL), play a crucial role in macroeconomic analysis.

This report tracks the number of new individuals filing for unemployment benefits in the previous week, providing a valuable insight into the U.S. job market. When more people file for unemployment benefits, it generally indicates a decrease in employment, and vice versa. Investors rely on this report to assess the country's economic performance.

However, due to its weekly reporting frequency, jobless claims data can be highly volatile. To mitigate this volatility, analysts often focus on the moving four-week average of jobless claims, which provides a more stable trend over time. The report is released every Thursday at 8:30 a.m.

ET and has the potential to significantly impact financial markets. Notably, during the economic downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, weekly jobless claims in the U.S. surged to unprecedented levels. Businesses reduced payrolls due to social distancing measures, leading to historic numbers of Americans filing for unemployment benefits between mid-March and April 30th 2020, as reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of St.

Louis. The Impact of Jobless Claims on the Market As previously mentioned, initial jobless claims signify the onset of unemployment, whereas continued claims data reflects the number of individuals still receiving unemployment benefits. Notably, continued claims data becomes available one week after initial claims are reported.

Consequently, initial claims tend to have a more substantial impact on financial markets. Financial analysts often integrate their estimations of the jobless claims report into their market predictions. If the weekly jobless claims release deviates significantly from consensus estimates, it can trigger market movements, either upward or downward.

Typically, these movements align inversely with the report's direction. For instance, a decrease in initial jobless claims often leads to a market rally, whereas an increase in these claims might result in a market decline. The Initial Jobless Claims Report garners considerable attention due to its simplicity and the fundamental premise that a robust job market reflects a healthy economy.

The underlying idea is straightforward: more employed individuals equate to higher disposable income within the economy, fostering increased personal spending and bolstering both personal consumption and gross domestic product (GDP). Why Do Jobless Claims matter to Traders? The mid-month jobless claims report can trigger significant market reactions, especially if it diverges from other recent indicators.

For instance, if various indicators signal an economic slowdown, an unexpected decline in jobless claims might pause equity selling and even boost stock prices. This reaction often occurs when there isn't any other recent data available for analysis. Conversely, a positive initial jobless claims report might go unnoticed on a hectic news day amid Wall Street's activities.

Furthermore, jobless claims serve as essential inputs for creating various models and indicators. For instance, average weekly initial jobless claims form one of the ten components used in the Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Indicators. Is Jobless the Same as Unemployed?

As per the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the labour force comprises both employed individuals and those seeking employment. Employed individuals have jobs, while the unemployed are those without jobs, actively searching for employment, and available for work. In summary, jobless claims represent the weekly count of individuals applying for unemployment insurance benefits due to their unemployment status.

This metric stands as a vital leading indicator, offering valuable insights into the overall economic health of a nation. The significance of jobless claims lies in their ability to reflect the prevailing economic conditions. When jobless claims are on the rise, it serves as a warning sign indicating a weakening economy.

This trend suggests that more people are losing jobs, potentially due to economic challenges or downturns in specific industries. Growing jobless claims can signify reduced consumer spending, increased financial strain on households, and a general lack of confidence in the job market. Conversely, a decline in jobless claims paints a positive picture, signalling an improving economy.

Decreasing jobless claims indicate that fewer individuals are filing for unemployment benefits, implying a stabilising job market. This trend can boost consumer confidence, encourage spending, and foster economic growth. Moreover, a decrease in jobless claims often aligns with increased hiring by businesses, reflecting a healthier labour market.

In essence, monitoring jobless claims provides policymakers, economists, businesses, and investors with valuable data to assess the economic landscape. These insights are instrumental in making informed decisions, shaping economic policies, and predicting future market trends. By understanding the fluctuations in jobless claims, stakeholders can adapt strategies, allocate resources effectively, and contribute to the overall stability and growth of the economy.

Therefore, the analysis of jobless claims remains an essential practice for anyone involved in economic forecasting, policy-making, or financial investments, serving as a key barometer for the economic well-being of a nation.