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US inflation data on Wednesday is the week's centrepiece, but with oil nearing seven-month highs, Bitcoin (BTC) sentiment shifting, and the Australian dollar at three-year highs, traders have plenty to navigate in the week ahead.
Quick Facts
- US inflation rate (February) is the key binary event for rate cut pricing and equity direction.
- Brent crude is trading around US$82–84/bbl, near seven-month highs, with a $4–$10 geopolitical risk premium baked in from Iran/Hormuz tensions.
- Bitcoin is trading above US$70,000 as of 6 March, a potential trend change if it holds through the week.
United States: inflation in focus
Last month’s US inflation reading showed prices rising 2.4% year-on-year, still well above the Fed's 2% target.
February's inflation rate, due Wednesday, will be scrutinised for signs that tariff pass-through or rising energy costs are pushing prices back up, or whether the slow grind lower is still intact.
The March FOMC meeting on 17–18 March is now priced at only an 4.7% probability of a cut. A higher-than-expected inflation print this week could potentially push rate cut expectations further out.
A softer read opens the door to renewed cut pricing and potential relief across risk assets.
Key Dates
- US Inflation Rate (February CPI): Wednesday 11 March, 12:30 am (AEDT)
Monitor
- Core vs. headline inflation divergence as evidence of tariff pass-through in goods prices.
- 2-year and 10-year treasury yield sensitivity to the print.
- USD direction and FedWatch repricing in the lead up to the 18 March FOMC decision.
Oil: elevated and event-sensitive
Brent is currently trading around US$83–85 per barrel, with a 52-week range spanning $58.40 to $85.12, reflecting the dramatic move triggered by the Middle East conflict.
Analysts estimate the geopolitical risk premium already baked into oil at US$4–$10 per barrel, and average 2026 Brent forecasts have been lifted to US$63.85/bbl, up from US$62.02 in January.
The EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts Brent to average $58/bbl in 2026, well below the current spot price.
The gap between spot and the forecast baseline could be a useful frame for traders this week: any de-escalation signal from the Middle East could rapidly close that gap.
Monitor
- Strait of Hormuz developments and any diplomatic signals from Iran nuclear talks.
- EIA weekly oil inventory data.
- Oil's knock-on to inflation expectations and whether it shifts central bank posture.
- Energy sector equity performance relative to the broader market.
Bitcoin: sentiment watch
BTC has been attempting to stabilise after a brutal 53% correction over the past 17 weeks, fuelled by escalating geopolitical tensions and renewed tariff concerns.
However, yesterday saw a 8% jump back above $72,000, and the crypto “fear and greed index” jumped up to 29 (fear), up from below 20 (extreme fear), where it has been sitting for over a month, indicating a potential sentiment shift.
A cooler-than-expected US inflation print on Wednesday could provide further fuel for the breakout; a hot print risks potentially pulling BTC back below the US$70,000 level it has just reclaimed.
Monitor
- Inflation print reaction on Wednesday as the primary macro catalyst for the move.
- Any rotation into altcoins following BTC strength.
- ETF inflow/outflow data as confirmation of institutional participation.
AUD/USD: Hawkish RBA meets geopolitical crosswinds
The Aussie is trading near more than three-year highs and heading for its fourth consecutive monthly gain, up more than 6% year-to-date, making it the top-performing G10 currency in 2026.
The driver is a clear policy divergence. RBA Governor Michele Bullock signalled the March policy meeting is "live" for a possible rate increase, and warned that an oil price shock from Iran tensions could reignite domestic inflationary pressures.
Market pricing now suggests around a 28% chance of a 25bp hike at the upcoming meeting, while fully pricing in tightening through May, and around a 75% chance of another increase to 4.35% by year-end.
This hawkish read, set against a Fed on hold and facing dovish political pressure, creates a potential structural tailwind for the Aussie.
Monitor
- AUD/USD reaction to Wednesday's US inflation data.
- RBA rate hike probability repricing through the week.
- Iron ore and commodity prices as secondary AUD drivers.
- China demand signals, given Australia's export exposure.
USD was ultimately flat in a choppy session on Thursday after hotter-than-expected US CPI data. The US Dollar Index (DXY) hitting briefly breeching the resistance at 102.63 to hit a high of 102.76. This proved to be another false breakout of this level with DXY gradually retracing for the rest of the session to unchanged levels.
JPY outperformed, after an initial spike higher in USDJPY above 146 after the CPI reading, the retracement was more profound in this pair with it ultimately trading just above the psychological 145 level. A report did hit the newswires that said the BoJ is considering lowering its price outlook for FY2024 to the middle 2% range, though with dovish BoJ expectations being priced in it didn’t deter the Yen bulls. Risk sensitive currencies GBP and AUD had a mixed reaction.
GBPUSD making gains ahead of the UK GDP reading today. AUDUSD posting losses despite better than expected trade data that seemed to be interpreted as more evidence of a slowing Aussie economy. Gold again tested the 2040 USD an ounce resistance before a spike in the USD post CPI saw a steep decline to a low of 2013.
Early in the APAC session the Gold bulls look keen to test this level again with XAUUSD rebounding to around 2035. This will be a key level to watch for Gold traders.
USD ultimately ended lower on Monday with the US Dollar Index (DXY) first testing the resistance at 102.57 to the upside before reversing course to test the support at 102 to the downside. A risk on equity markets and some dovish developments. Data saw the NY Fed Survey show lower than expected inflation expectations.
There was also a dovish call from Bank of America regarding the Feds holdings of US Treasuries along with what was seen as dovish comments from Fed members Bostic and Logan all weighing on the Greenback. JPY bounced back against the USD after its weak start to 2024. USDJPY falling from highs of 144.92 to lows of 143.67 before finding some support.
Possible positioning before todays Tokyo CPI figure and a fall in US yields seemingly the drivers. CHF also saw decent gains against the USD and EUR after a hotter than expected December Swiss CPI print where the year-on-year inflation rate rose to 1.7% against an expected 1.5% Crude Oil prices were a big mover with USOUSD dropping almost 3% as a result of sharp price cuts by top exporter Saudi Arabia stoked demand fears. There was also a reported rise in OPEC output offsetting any supply worries generated by the ongoing tension in the Middle East.
USOUSD finding support at the 70 USD a barrel support level for now, the next level lower to watch will be the major support at 67 USD a barrel.
The recovery in strength on the DXY has led to Gold reversing strongly from the all-time high of 2088 which was reached at the end of 2023. Last week, the US employment data was released stronger than expected with the Non-Farm employment change at 216K (Forecast: 168K), however, wage inflation remained unchanged at 0.4%. This set of data is likely to push back the anticipated timeline for potential Fed rate cuts, from March to May, which could see further upside potential for the DXY.
Gold is currently trading along the 2032 price level which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. If the DXY continues to climb, further downside can be expected for Gold. Look for the price to test the bullish trendline at the 2020 price level to signal further downside, with the next key support level at 2007.
Beats in US employment data ahead of today’s key Non-farm payroll figure saw the US Dollar Index eke out another gain after weakness in the APAC session reversed in the European session. DXY up for the 5 th straight day, having its longest winning streak since September and it’s best start to a year since 2005. DXY hit a high of 102.53, still being held from further gains by the resistance at 102.57, a level that could be under pressure in the US session if the NFP report mirrors the beats in the ADP figure and unemployment claims released on Thursday.
The Euro was the G10 outperformer on Thursday with a spike in Eurozone yields after beats in French, German and Spanish PMI readings ahead of today’s Eurozone CPI figures. EURUSD continued its bounce off the psychological 1.09 support level, hitting a high of 1.0972 and keeping the upward trend channel intact that has been forming since October. With EZ CPI and NFP ahead today these will be key levels to keep an eye on.
JPY was the G10 underperformer with USDJPY rallying within a whisker of the big figure at 145, Yen also showing weakness against the EUR as both US and EZ yields rallied, increasing yield differentials against their Japanese counterparts.
USD saw weakness in Wednesday’s session with a risk on equity market and only a marginal move higher in yields weighing on the Greenback ahead of today’s key US CPI report. There was little in the way of major US data releases but some hawkish leaning comments late in the session from the Fed’s Williams stemmed losses. The US Dollar Index (DXY) did make another attempt to breach the 102.57 resistance, but for the 5 th time this year was again rejected, this will be a key level to watch over todays CPI report.
EUR moved higher with EURUSD heading into the APAC session at highs of around 1.0970. EUR was supported by comments from the ECB's De Guindos who warned the rapid pace of disinflation seen in 2023 is likely to slow down in 2024 and Schnabel who said it is too early to discuss rate cuts. JPY was the G10 underperformer after Japanese wage data came in much softer than expected, throwing cold water on expectations of the BOJ normalizing rates.
USDJPY following the US10Y-JP10Y rate differential higher and breaching the psychological 145 level. GBP also saw gains vs USD, taking advantage of a weaker USD and a risk-on session in equities. BoE Governor Bailey spoke in the UK session, pushing back on rate cut expectations while stressing the importance of returning inflation to target.
Ahead today the much-awaited US CPI report which will shape market expectations of the Feds next move and should get FX markets moving.
US producer and marketer of beer, wine and spirits, Constellation Brands Inc. (NYSE: STZ), announced Q3 fiscal 2024 financial results before the market opened in the US on Friday. The company reported revenue of $2.471 billion for the quarter, which fell short of $2.538 billion expected. Earnings per share topped analyst estimates at $3.19 per share vs. estimate of $3.014 per share.
Company overview Founded: 1945 Headquarters: Victor, New York, United States Number of employees: 10,700 (2023) Industry: Beverages Key people: Rob Sands (Chairman), Richard Sands (Vice Chairman), Bill Newlands (CEO), Garth Hankinson (CFO) CFO commentary "The continued strong performance of our Beer portfolio in Q3 has given us the confidence to raise our full-year operating income outlook for that Business. In addition, we now expect higher enterprise operating cash flow and free cash flow in Fiscal 2024. We remain committed to our disciplined and balanced approach to deploying that cash with a consistent focus on supporting our investment grade balance sheet, steady cash returns to shareholders through our dividend, opportunistic share repurchases, brewing capacity investments in our Beer Business, and tuck-in M&A to fill portfolio gaps," Garth Hankinson, CFO of Constellation Brands, commented on the latest results.
Stock reactions Shares of Constellation Brands were up by just over 2% after posting the latest results on Friday, trading at $247.53 a share. Stock performance 1 month: +5.58% 3 months: +4.62% Year-to-date: +2.39% 1 year: +15.54% Constellation Brands stock price targets JP Morgan: $301 Jefferies Financial Group: $292 Truist Financial: $260 Barclays: $280 HSBC: $290 Wedbush: $300 Wells Fargo: $285 Goldman Sachs: $305 Deutsche Bank: $243 Royal Bank of Canada: $295 TD Cowen: $300 Morgan Stanley: $305 Constellation Brands Inc. is the 387th largest company in the world with a market cap of $45.46 billion. You can trade Constellation Brands Inc. (NYSE: STZ) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
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Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Constellation Brands Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap