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The Week Ahead – RBNZ, UK and US inflation and debt ceiling impasse headline risk events

With Junes FOMC policy meeting still up in the air as far as markets are pricing in, FOMC minutes and US PCE core inflation figures (reportedly the Fed’s favoured measure) released this week will be closely watched and likely go a long way to settling market participants mind as to what the next move from the fed will be. From the UK inflation da...

May 22, 2023
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US stocks surge on bounce in regional banks and debt ceiling optimism

Major US indices finished solidly in the green in a broad rally as risk appetite returned to the market amid optimism debt ceiling negotiations and a reassuring update from regional bank Western Alliance (WAL) which reported growth in its deposits. The Dow was up over 400 points, or 1.24% while the Russell 2000 outperformed, up over 2%, flying on a...

May 18, 2023
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US equities finish in the red after retail sales miss and ongoing debt ceiling concerns

US stocks finished mostly lower in what was a risk-off session amid mixed data releases from the US and ongoing debt ceiling concerns weighing on risk markets. A lackluster forecast from retail giant (and Dow component) Home Depot (HD) also didn’t help. The Dow led losses, ending up down over 300 points while the Nasdaq was the least worst of ...

May 17, 2023
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US stocks mostly lower as bank woes sour risk sentiment, BoE hikes rates

US indices closed the session mixed with outperformance in Nasdaq, propped up by Google(GOOG) as their continuing I/O event bolstered their stock price. However, other major indices finished solidly in the red, with the Dow down over 200 points, dragged down by Disney, and the S&P500 and Russell 2000 suffering from further banking woes after Pa...

May 12, 2023
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US stocks finish mostly up in chaotic session after CPI slip

US equity markets whipsawed in a volatile session after CPI figures showed a slight softening in the headline reading, this saw stocks initially rally, before dipping and rallying again to finish the session on a strong footing. The Nasdaq outperformed in a lower yield environment and was given a boost by Alphabet (GOOG) which rallied over 4% amid ...

May 11, 2023
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US CPI preview – the chart to watch

Today’s US CPI number is the most important US data release this week. With the FX markets coming into this release with relatively low energy and searching for a catalyst any surprise will likely trigger significant intraday volatility in FX and other risk assets. We’re also coming into this release with a market split on the Feds next rate...

May 10, 2023
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Asian markets looking to open flat after US stocks finish mixed in choppy, rangebound session

Major US indices finished mixed to flat on a slow news day and lighter than usual volumes not helped by the UK being on a holiday as traders seem to be waiting for pivotal inflation data released later this week. The Nasdaq, lifted by lingering good feeling from recent Tech earnings outperformed, finishing up 21 points, while a paring back of a ...

May 9, 2023
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Risk events in the week ahead – BoE set to hike, US CPI

US stocks rallied strongly on Friday on a stronger than expected Jobs report, improved banking sentiment and strong earnings from Apple (AAPL) which saw the Nasdaq up over 2% and erasing the weeks losses to finish the first week of May modestly in the green. Non-farm payrolls smashed expectations, coming in at 253k new jobs created in April ...

May 8, 2023
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US stocks sink in risk off session as banking sector woes continue to weigh

US stocks indices finished in the red in a choppy session with more regional bank selling, mixed data releases (including a surge in US Labour Costs) and another hike out of the ECB keeping traders busy. All four major indexes finished broadly lower with financials leading the declines as more headlines hit the newswires regarding issues with re...

May 5, 2023
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Asian session update – risk returns

Asian indices and US futures have bounced back so far in the session after gapping down at the open after the news that another US bank could be in trouble, namely PacWest, which I’m pretty sure we’ll be hearing more about in the coming days. The ASX200 has recovered from its negative open, helped by a strong trade balance figure and is curr...

May 4, 2023
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US stocks tumble on Fed rate hike and “hawkish pause” – Futures down after market as banking crisis fears return

Asian equities are looking to open lower taking a lead from Wall St where US stocks finished in the red, with most losses coming after the FOMC decision late in the US session. The FOMC hiked rates 25bp as expected and released what was seen as a mostly dovish statement that left the door open for a pause, this saw market initially rally and cho...

May 4, 2023
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Asian session looking to open up after Wall St rallies on strong earnings and data releases – tech leads after Meta beats

US stock indices rallied as risk appetite returned as banking fears seemed to take back seat and strong tech earnings saw the bulls in charge. The Dow and S&P 500 had their best day since January while the Nasdaq led the charge higher, rallying almost 2.5% after impressive tech earnings continued with Meta rallying 14% in the session. Te...

April 28, 2023
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US Stocks finished mostly down on bank stress – Nasdaq lifted by tech earnings

Major US Stock indices were mixed in Wednesdays session after  further banking woes dragged down the Dow, S&P500 and Russell while the Nasdaq held up thanks to strong earnings from Microsoft and Alphabet. The Russell 2000 was again the underperformer as mid-sized bank worries continued, seeing First Republic Bank (FRC) dump another 30%, dra...

April 27, 2023
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US equities fall on soft data and re-ignited banking fears

US stocks were broadly lower in Tuesday’s session as another US bank teetered on the verge of collapse and weak Consumer Confidence figures saw investors heading for the door. In a continuation of banking jitters, First Republic Bank (FRC) plunges to record lows after an earnings miss and reporting record deposit outflows seeing the stock pric...

April 26, 2023
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Key Events in the Week Ahead – BoJ meeting, US GDP, Aussie CPI

Coming off a choppy and mostly directionless week for Global Markets, this coming week looks to be more of the same as we enter the Federal Reserve blackout period ahead of their pivotal meeting on May the 3rd. While the economic calendar is light, there are a few risk events that could see some volatility in the markets, starting Wednesday with...

April 24, 2023
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