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Central Banks
US trading thematics Part 2: Data Confirming
Will June be the turning point? The market thinks it is – and its reaction to the CPI data not only signalled how it will trade in the coming months. It also showed that traders are primed to rotate to even more bullish positions. Because from the market’s perspective September is now more than live its near enough to a lock for the Fed to cut ...
July 12, 2024Read More >US trading thematics: Part 1 “When Powell talks”
Over the coming 48 hours and then over the coming 2 weeks, Fed speak and US data is going to be some of the best trading opportunities in 2024. It’s been a pretty low-vol year despite several events that would under normal circumstances be triggers for much larger fluxes in FX and bonds. But to date: that has not been the case. Let's look at t...
July 10, 2024Read More >Trading the inflation bumps Part 2: Narrow to non-existent
First – let us just say that as we suspected the AUD jolted all over the place on the release of the May CPI – the read was much stronger than consensus and the fallout from the read ongoing. But, and it’s a but, we predicted the AUD’s initial bullish reaction was counted by once again point to the fact parts of the monthly read can be expl...
June 28, 2024Read More >Trading the Inflation bumps – The May surprises and what to do with it
The consensus for the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) is for a rise to 3.8% annually in May, the range being 3.6% to 4.0%. This would be the fourth consecutive rise in yearly inflation and would show that not only is inflation ‘sticky’ it could be considered ‘entrenched’ Monthly CPI indicator YoY% This headline will cause large...
June 25, 2024Read More >A frightened Hawk – The RBA needs to come clean
We know that this is slightly contrary to the consensus views but we think it needs to be said. The communication from the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) is unusually unclear, confusing and conflicted. The view conveyed in statement, press conference and minutes currently we would argue counter each other. And the reason for this we believe i...
June 20, 2024Read More >When less is more – Why one cut in 2024 was good news?
We have been scratching our heads as to what exactly drove some of the strong price action in pairs, equities and bonds off the back of a further hawkish turn from the Fed at its June meeting. So, what exactly has promoted the moves on markets and what else should we as traders acknowledge from the Fed meeting First Powell has pointed to a po...
June 14, 2024Read More >The race has begun – who is left holding the rates bag
FX and indices traders are now on notice – the race to restart economies is upon us. We have to-date seen Riksbank and SNB move policy but with the Bank of Canada (BoC) now entering the rate cut movement – the race is now well and truly on and the interest rate differentials that come into play with currencies will ramp up. Potential for Fur...
June 6, 2024Read More >Plateauing is just another way of saying ‘stuck’
Let’s make things very clear – Australia’s inflation rate is plateauing in fact I would argue it’s starting to reaccelerate in areas Australia can least afford. From a trading and momentum perspective this needs explaining. Stronger Than Expected Print April's CPI data exceeded expectations and was at the very top of the surveyed ra...
May 30, 2024Read More >Reading between the lines for the USD
Last week I highlighted Governor Chris Waller’s speech – however the more I look into his talk the more it needs greater emphasis as it contained both hawkish and dovish elements. The Hawk Waller indicated that he would need at least three more months of "good" inflation data before considering a rate cut. He was suggesting this might h...
May 28, 2024Read More >Where’s the Federal Reserve at?
Slowing Growth and Potential Rate Cuts: Recent economic data suggests a slowdown in growth, contrary to earlier expectations of reaccelerating growth and inflation. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's statements and recent economic indicators point towards the possibility of lower policy rates in the near future. Key indicators, such as the so...
May 22, 2024Read More >Economic versus the Federal Reserve Policy Implications
Where’s the Federal Reserve at? Slowing Growth and Potential Rate Cuts: Recent economic data suggests a slowdown in growth, contrary to earlier expectations of reaccelerating growth and inflation. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's statements and recent economic indicators point towards the possibility of lower policy rates in the near f...
May 21, 2024Read More >What a difference a (CPI) Day makes
We often talk about, ‘one piece of data does not make a trend,’ that ‘a headline is just a headline’ and that ‘assumptions are not facts.’ We feel this timeless market lesson has been slightly forgotten of late and the latest US CPI data may be case-in-point judging by the market’s reaction to the read. Let have a dive into the ...
May 16, 2024Read More >Banking it – Where are we after the May Central Bank deluge?
What a week and a half we have had - Central Banks the world over have delivered their May decisions for their respective interest rate moves (or non-moves). Thus, we need to review the FX reactions and the outlook for rates for the rest of 2024. Let’s start at home: RBA and the AUD First, as expected the Reserve Bank of Australia (...
May 14, 2024Read More >Inside the Fed
Let us open with this: “It’s unlikely that the next policy rate move will be a hike. I’d say it’s unlikely,” – US Chair Jay Powell This verbatim quote puts a lid on the movements seen in bond and interbank markets that might have overacted to recent data that has been above expectations and has led some to price hikes. The let u...
May 2, 2024Read More >Fed Pauses, Markets Rally: But What’s Next?
As expected, there was no change in the U.S. interest rate, with the decision to keep rates at 5.5% having been previously telegraphed and already priced in. As is always the case, markets dissected the statement and the subsequent press conference by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to look for clues about what future Fed direction may or may not be. ...
November 2, 2023Read More >
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