FX Analysis – USD continues decline on dovish Fedspeak, JPY outperforms, AUD and NZD breakout

USD continued its recent decline on Tuesday with the US dollar index (DXY) hitting its lowest level since mid-August at 102.60 before finding some support at the 61.8 Fib level.  The decline accelerated after voting Fed member Waller who is seen as a hawk, made some dovish remarks regarding rates and inflation namely he was “increasingly confide...

November 29, 2023
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FX Analysis – EUR and GBP rally on PMIs, USDJPY tests key level.

Markets were predictably quite due to holidays in the US and Japan on Thursday. USD was marginally softer overall with DXY dropping to test the support at the 200-day MA before recovering modestly amid the holiday lull for Thanksgiving. Source:TradingView.com EURUSD managed mild gains with price action choppy around the 1.0900 level but ev...

November 24, 2023
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USD – The US dollar index was ultimately firmer in a choppy session where DXY hit a low of 103.18 in the APAC session only to reverse course later hitting a high of 103.71 in the US session. A sour risk environment after some misses in US retail earnings and traders getting long before the FOMC minutes seem to be the key drivers. Reaction to the ...

November 22, 2023
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FX Analysis – Falling Yields Pressure USD, the Key Levels to Watch.

Recent US figures have seen a rout in treasury yields with the flagship 10-year now yielding 4.435% after starting November at 16-year highs north of 5% and in a seemingly unstoppable uptrend. A cooler CPI and PPI showing inflation is decelerating at a faster pace than the market anticipated, along with weaker employment and industrial production f...

November 17, 2023
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Australian Employment Beats Expectation – AUDUSD Reaction and Analysis.

Australian employment change for October was released today and showed a decent beat of +55k jobs added vs an expected 22.8k while the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.7% in line with expectation. AUDUSD reaction was muted, with markets still convinced that we have seen the peak in the RBA rate cycle with futures barely moving the needle on rate...

November 16, 2023
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FX Analysis – AUDUSD and Gold get a boost, JPY spikes on possible intervention.

AUDUSD AUD saw gains to come within a whisker of the key 0.64 level, after hawkish leaning commentary from RBA Assistant Governor Kohler, who noted the decline in inflation is more gradual than previously thought. The Aussie also helped by a weaker USD and improved risk sentiment. The 0.64 level will be key in the near term as the mid-point of A...

November 14, 2023
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Charts to watch in the week ahead – AUDUSD, USDOLLAR, GBPUSD

Last week’s action in the FX markets was shaped by a pushback by the Fed chair Jerome Powell and assorted other Fed members on markets pricing in a less hawkish Fed going forward. What was seen as a dovish FOMC and a big miss in NFP the week before saw traders piling back into risk assets with traders hoping for a less aggressive Fed, it seemed p...

November 13, 2023
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FX Analysis – USDJPY, and GOLD reaction after a surge in the Dollar

USD rallied strongly in Thursday’s session after a quiet start following dismal demand for US 30 year-treasuries at a scheduled bond auction, seeing yields surge and taking the USD with them. The push higher was later given an extra boost by Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish statements during a panel organized by the IMF. In a scheduled panel chat ...

November 10, 2023
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FX Analysis – AUDUSD stutters after RBA and weak Chinese data, USDJPY back above 150 testing the BoJ

AUDUSD dropped in Tuesday’s session with AUD being weighed on post-RBA decision, as the less hawkish RBA guidance outweighed the widely anticipated 25bps hike to 4.35%. Though the market reaction was a little curious given the small changes to the accompanying statement hardly made it dovish. The RBA changed its forward guidance to say "whether f...

November 8, 2023
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Will any BOJ intervention really have an impact on continued JPY weakness?

With the USD/JPY sitting at historic highs and touching the psychologically important level of 150 at the end of last week, markets are waiting to see if there is likely to be any intervention today from the Bank of Japan (BOJ). Today, we see their two-day policy meeting concluding, culminating in their interest rate decision and, more importantly,...

October 31, 2023
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FX Analysis – Yield spike on hot retail sales fails to lift USD, AUD outperforms, JPY , NZD.

USD traded in a tight range on Tuesday despite a big move higher in treasury yields after a beat in US retail sales figures, the headline rising 0.7% M/M vs 0.3% expected.  DXY whipsawing within a contained range, hitting a high of 106.52 on the initial reaction to the retail sales figure, but quickly paring gains to hit a low of 106.02. Fed membe...

October 18, 2023
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Charts to watch in the week ahead – AUDUSD, Gold, Oil

Global markets head into the new week with one eye on ongoing geopolitical pressures and one eye on US data and comments from Federal Reserve members as we come into the last week before the blackout period ahead of the November 2 FOMC meeting. Along with the geopolitical backdrop there is some key scheduled data this week the traders will be watch...

October 16, 2023
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FX Analysis – USD and yields surge on hot CPI, Gold down, AUD and NZD pummelled

USD surged higher on Thursday, with DXY having its second biggest daily gain since March, reclaiming the big figure at 106 and holding above its trendline support. Hotter than expected CPI readings with the M/M rising 0.4% (exp. 0.3%) and Y/Y coming in at 3.7% , above the 3.6% consensus got the Dollar rally going, but a dismal US 30yr auction later...

October 13, 2023
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FX Analysis – Yields and Dollar drop ahead of NFP , AUD and NZD outperform, JPY traders watching the 150 level

The USD sell off continued Thursday moving in lockstep with yields again ahead of today’s key non-farm payroll figure.  Unemployment claims came inline and had a limited impact as it was yields driving action in the USD. DXY dropped to close at the lows of 106.32 from earlier highs of 106.86. So far this looks like a technical pullback from over...

October 6, 2023
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FX Analysis – Yields and USD rise again, AUD clobbered, JPY intervention?

The first week of the new quarter has so far been an interesting one, rampant US treasury yields breaking out to 16-year highs, a USD that just keeps going up and now it seems the Japanese Ministry of Finance is directly intervening in currency markets. USD rose to a high of 107.35 on the back of a surge in yields and a hawkish US JOLTS report w...

October 4, 2023
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