Market news & insights

Asia-Pacific markets head into the week with Australia’s CPI as the key domestic catalyst, Japan’s month-end inflation and activity data keeping JPY and equities in focus, and China’s official PMI providing an important read on regional growth momentum.

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Quick facts

• China: NBS manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 in December 2025. Consensus for Saturday’s release is 50.2. 
• Australia: CPI, Australia (Dec) is the key local catalyst, with implications for rate expectations and AUD pricing. 
• Japan: Tokyo CPI and month-end labour/activity data keep USD/JPY and Nikkei futures in focus following last week’s BoJ meeting. 
• Global backdrop: US earnings momentum, US CPI expectations and geopolitical developments remain secondary but relevant drivers for Asia-Pacific risk sentiment.

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China

Attention turns to China’s official PMI after December’s improvement saw the PMI move back above 50—a level commonly interpreted as expansion in the survey, though month-to-month readings can be volatile. 

Consensus suggests a rise to 50.2; if met, it may help reinforce the view that growth momentum is stabilising into early 2026. 

Key release

• Sat 31 Jan: NBS manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI (Jan)

How markets may respond

• Regional equities and risk: Sustained PMI readings above 50 could support broader Asia risk appetite and materials-linked sectors. A reversal below 50 may temper recent optimism.
• AUD spillover: China-sensitive assets, including the AUD and materials stocks on the ASX, may react alongside domestic CPI outcomes.

Japan

Following last week’s BoJ meeting, focus shifts to Tokyo CPI and month-end activity data. These releases late in the week may shape near-term expectations around Japan’s inflation trajectory and the tone of the dataflow.

Key events

• Thu 29 Jan: Tokyo CPI (Jan) (medium sensitivity) 
• Fri 30 Jan: Japan unemployment (Dec), retail sales (Dec), industrial production (Dec) (medium sensitivity) 

How markets may respond

• USD/JPY: Month-end inflation and activity data can drive front-end rate repricing, with USD/JPY remaining a key transmission channel.
• JP225 (Nikkei futures): The contract has recently traded in a defined range. Market participants may monitor the ~54,250 area on the upside and ~52,250 on the downside as reference points, with price action around these levels often used to gauge whether the range is persisting. 

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Australia

Australia’s week is dominated by the CPI release.  The outcome may influence rate expectations, with the next scheduled RBA decision still in the balance.

ASX 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures imply around a 56% probability of a cash-rate increase at the next scheduled RBA decision (implied pricing can change quickly and is not a forecast). 

AUD pricing is likely to remain sensitive alongside broader global risk conditions. 

Key release

• Wed 28 Jan: CPI, Australia (Dec) (high sensitivity) 

How markets may respond

• ASX 200: Rate-sensitive sectors may react more to the policy implications than the headline CPI number, particularly given recent strength in materials.
• AUD/USD: CPI outcomes may influence whether AUD/USD sustains around/above its current zone or drifts back toward prior trading ranges. 

Expected earnings date: Wednesday, 28 January 2026 (US, after market close) / early Thursday, 29 January 2026 (AEDT)

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Key areas in focus

The Tesla earnings release can act as a barometer for both global EV demand and capital-intensive innovation across automation and energy systems.

Vehicle deliveries and margins are likely to be the primary near-term drivers of sentiment. Investors will also be watching updates across adjacent initiatives that may influence longer-term growth expectations.

Autonomy and software (FSD)

Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” (FSD) is a branded advanced driver-assistance feature sold in some markets and requires active driver supervision; availability and capabilities vary by jurisdiction. 

Further rollout and any expansion of autonomy-linked services remain subject to regulatory approvals and continued evolution of the underlying technology.

Energy generation and storage

Solar, Powerwall and Megapack remain a key focus, particularly given the segment’s recent growth contribution. 

Robotics (Optimus)

Optimus remains early stage, with no disclosed revenue contribution to date. It may become more relevant to Tesla’s longer-term AI and automation aspirations. 

Expectations remain delicately balanced between near-term margin pressure, the impact of demand and interest rate movements, and longer-term product and platform developments.

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What happened last quarter?

In Q3 2025 (September quarter), Tesla reported mixed results versus consensus expectations. Revenue and deliveries reached record levels, while earnings and margins remained under pressure amid pricing and cost dynamics. 

Tesla said it was navigating a challenging pricing environment while continuing to invest for long-term growth (as referenced in the shareholder communications cited below). 

Last earnings key highlights

• Revenue: ~US$28.1 billion 
• Earnings per share (EPS): ~US$0.50 (non-GAAP, diluted) 
• Total GAAP gross margin: ~18.0%; 
• Operating margin: ~5.8% 
• Free cash flow (FCF): ~US$4.0 billion 
• Vehicle deliveries: ~497,099 units, up ~7% year on year (YoY) 

How did the market react last time?

Tesla shares were volatile in after-hours trading, with attention focused on margins relative to revenue. 

What’s expected this quarter?

As of mid-January 2026, third-party consensus estimates (Bloomberg) indicated continued focus on revenue growth alongside profitability and margin resilience. These are third-party estimates, not company guidance, and can change. 

Key consensus reference points include: 

• Revenue: market expectations ~US$27 billion to US$28 billion 
• EPS: consensus clustered near US$0.55 to US$0.60 (adjusted) 
• Deliveries: market estimates ~510,000 to 520,000 vehicles 
• Margins: focus on whether automotive gross margin stabilises near recent levels or trends lower 
• Capital expenditure (capex): focus on spending discipline and efficiency rather than acceleration 

*All above points observed as of 16 January 2026.

Key areas markets often focus on include:

• Profit margin trajectory, and whether cost efficiencies are offsetting pricing pressure
• Delivery volumes relative to consensus expectations
• Pricing strategy and evidence of demand elasticity across regions
• Capex and implications for future FCF
• Progress in energy storage and non-automotive revenue streams
• Commentary on AI, autonomy and longer-term investment priorities

Expectations

Market sentiment could be described as cautiously optimistic, with investors weighing revenue momentum against margin concerns.

Price has pulled back into a range following a brief test of recent highs in December. Given the recent range-bound price action, deviations from consensus across key earnings metrics may prompt a larger move in either direction.

Listed options were pricing an indicative move of around ±5.5% based on near-dated options expiring after 28 January and an at-the-money (ATM) options-implied expected move estimate.

Implied volatility (IV) was about 47.7% annualised into the event, as observed on Barchart at 11:30 am AEDT on 16 January 2026 (local time of observation). 

These are market-implied estimates and may change. Actual post-earnings moves can be larger or smaller.

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What this means for Australian traders

Tesla’s earnings may influence near-term sentiment across US growth and technology indices, with potential flow-through to broader risk appetite.

For Australian markets, any read-through is often framed through supply chain sensitivity. Market participants may look to related sectors such as lithium and rare earth producers linked to EV inputs are one potential channel, alongside broader sentiment impacts from Tesla’s innovation commentary.

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Important risk note

Immediately after the US close and into the early Asia session, Nasdaq 100 (NDX) futures and related CFD pricing can reflect thinner liquidity, wider spreads, and sharper repricing around new information. 

Such an environment can increase gap risk and execution uncertainty relative to regular-hours conditions.

Expected earnings date: Wednesday, 28 January 2026 (US, after market close) / early Thursday, 29 January 2026 (AEDT)

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Key areas in focus

Intelligent Cloud (Azure)

Azure remains Microsoft’s primary earnings swing factor. Markets are watching to see whether any growth reflects demand strength or capacity constraints, and how AI-related workloads are impacting margins.

Productivity and Business Processes

Microsoft 365, Office, and LinkedIn are sources of recurring revenue for Microsoft. Growth, pricing discipline, and client churn remain the key variables that markets will be watching.

Personal Computing

Windows, devices, and gaming are more cyclical. Stabilisation of PC demand and gaming engagement remain secondary sources of revenue but are still noteworthy.

Artificial intelligence

Approaches around the monetisation of Microsoft’s AI play are still developing. Trends in enrolment and infrastructure cost are expected to be key factors.

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What happened last quarter

Microsoft reported results ahead of consensus, supported by steady cloud demand and resilient enterprise software revenues. 

Azure and other cloud services' growth remained a central focus, alongside commentary on AI-related investment and capacity.

Last earnings key highlights:

• Revenue: US$77.7 billion 
• Earnings per share (EPS): US$3.72 (GAAP) and US$4.13 (non-GAAP adjusted) 
• Intelligent Cloud revenue: US$30.9 billion
• Azure and other cloud services: up 40% year on year 
• Operating income: US$38.0 billion 

How the market reacted last time

Microsoft shares fell in after-hours trading following the release, despite the beating of headline numbers, as investors focused on AI investment intensity, capacity constraints and related implications for future margins.

What’s expected this quarter

Bloomberg consensus points to continued revenue growth led by cloud services, alongside broadly stable margins despite elevated capex.

Bloomberg consensus reference points (January 2026):

• Revenue: about US$68 to US$69 billion 
• EPS: about US$3.10 to US$3.20 (adjusted) 
• Azure growth: mid-to-high 20% year on year (YoY) (constant currency) 
• Operating margin: expected to remain broadly stable 
• Capex: expected to remain elevated, reflecting AI and cloud build-out 

*All above points observed as of 16 January 2026.

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Expectations

Sentiment appears cautious. Microsoft can remain sensitive to any cloud, margin, or guidance disappointment, particularly where investors interpret investment intensity as open-ended.

Price action traded within an established range of US$472 and US$490 recently, but has moved below this in the last week.

Listed options were pricing an indicative move of around ±2% based on near-dated options expiring after 28 January and an at-the-money options-implied ‘expected move’ estimate.

Implied volatility was about 33.5% annualised into the event as observed on Barchart at 11:00 AEDT on 16^th January 2026.

These are market-implied estimates and may change; actual post-earnings moves can be larger or smaller.

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What this means for Australian traders

Microsoft’s earnings may influence near-term sentiment across US technology indices, particularly the Nasdaq, with potential spillover into global equity risk appetite and, in turn, the ASX.

As a major technology stock, and with Tesla (TSLA) also scheduled to report after the US close on the same day, volatility in Nasdaq-linked products may increase while futures markets remain open.

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Important risk note 

Immediately after the US close and into the early Asia session, Nasdaq 100 (NDX) futures and related CFD pricing can reflect thinner liquidity, wider spreads, and sharper repricing around new information. 

Such an environment can increase gap risk and execution uncertainty relative to regular-hours conditions.

Expected earnings date: Wednesday, 28 January 2026 (US, after market close) / early Thursday, 29 January 2026 (AEDT)

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Key areas in focus

Advertising (Family of Apps)

Advertising remains Meta’s dominant revenue driver. AI-driven ad targeting, Reels monetisation, and engagement efficiency can be important contributors to revenue growth and may support advertiser outcomes, noting results can vary by advertiser, format, and market conditions.

User engagement and monetisation

Engagement trends across Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Threads remain closely watched as indicators that can influence monetisation assumptions and medium-term expectations.

Artificial intelligence

Meta views AI as a foundation for content discovery, advertising performance, and the development of generative tools. Markets may continue to evaluate whether AI-driven gains offset the level of infrastructure and data centre investment required to support these projects.

Reality Labs

Reality Labs remains loss-making. Management continues to frame AR/VR and metaverse-related platforms as long-term strategic investments, while acknowledging continued operating losses and a drag on earnings performance.

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What happened last quarter

Meta’s most recent quarterly update highlighted strong revenue growth alongside ongoing investment themes. 

The company’s reported (GAAP) net income and EPS reflected a one-time, non-cash income tax charge disclosed in the earnings materials, while management commentary also emphasised cost discipline and investment priorities.

Operating margins expanded year-on-year, despite elevated AI-related investment.

Last earnings key highlights

• Revenue: US$51.24 billion 
• Earnings per share (EPS): US$1.05 (GAAP) 
• Advertising revenue: US$50.08 billion 
• Operating margin: 40% 
• Reality Labs operating loss: about US$4.43 billion 

How the market reacted last time

Meta shares fell in after-hours trading after the release. Commentary at the time highlighted strong top-line outcomes, alongside investor focus on the outlook for spending and the pace of AI and infrastructure investment.

What’s expected this quarter

Bloomberg consensus points to continued year-on-year revenue growth, led by advertising, with operating margins expected to remain elevated despite ongoing AI and infrastructure expenditure.

Bloomberg consensus reference points (January 2026)

• Revenue: about US$41 to US$43 billion 
• EPS: about US$4.80 to US$5.10 (adjusted) 
• Advertising growth: high-teens year on year (YoY) 
• Operating margin: expected to remain above 40% 
• Capital expenditure (capex): elevated, reflecting AI and data centre investment 

*All above points observed as of 23 January 2026.

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Expectations

Sentiment around Meta Platforms may be sensitive to any disappointment around advertising demand, margin sustainability, or the scale of ongoing investment in AI and Reality Labs.

Recent price action suggests that some market participants appear to be pricing in a relatively constructive earnings outcome, which can increase sensitivity to negative surprises.

Listed options were pricing an indicative move of around ±3% based on near-dated options expiring after 28 January and an at-the-money options-implied ‘expected move’ estimate.

Implied volatility was about 31% annualised into the event, as observed on Barchart at 11:00 am AEDT on 23 January 2026.

These are market-implied estimates and may change. Actual post-earnings moves can be larger or smaller.

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What this means for Australian traders

Meta’s earnings may influence near-term sentiment across US technology indices, particularly the Nasdaq, with potential spillover into broader global equity risk appetite and index-linked products traded during the Asia session after the release, which can be volatile and unpredictable following earnings events.

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Important risk note

Immediately after the US close and into the early Asia session, Nasdaq 100 (NDX) futures and related CFD pricing can reflect thinner liquidity, wider spreads, and sharper repricing around new information. 

Such an environment can increase gap risk and execution uncertainty relative to regular-hours conditions.

Australian CPI may test market pricing for a February RBA move, while the Federal Reserve narrative will be followed closely, even though a pause is widely expected. It is also a busy US earnings week, with mega-cap names headlining, and Gold remains a key market focus.

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• Australia CPI: Australian CPI is the key domestic release, with markets pricing the risk of a February RBA rate increase.
• US Federal Reserve: The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady, with attention on whether a potential June rate cut remains intact.
• US mega-cap tech earnings: Earnings from large-cap technology names may test whether current equity valuations remain supported.
• Gold: Gold continues to trade near record highs.

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Australia

• Australia CPI (Q4): Wednesday, 28 January

Stronger-than-expected jobs report this week lifted market expectations for further policy tightening. 

According to the ASX RBA Rate Tracker, market-implied pricing for a February rate increase has risen to above 60%.

Market impact

• AUD crosses may respond to any shift in rate expectations
• Rate-sensitive equity sectors could see follow-through moves

Federal Reserve

• FOMC rate decision: Wednesday, 28 January (US) | 29 January (AEDT)

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to announce no change in rates after its two-day meeting. 

Market focus will centre on communication around inflation progress, and whether market-implied pricing for a potential June rate cut is reinforced or challenged.

Market impact

• USD direction may respond to any shift in policy tone across multiple asset classes
• US Treasury yields, especially at the front end, may react to changes in rate expectations

US mega-cap earnings

• Boeing: 27 January (US time) | 28 January AEDT
• Microsoft: 28 January (US time, after market close) | 29 January AEDT
• Meta Platforms: 28 January (US time, after market close) | 29 January AEDT
• Tesla: 28 January (US time, after market close) | 29 January AEDT
• Caterpillar: 29 January (US time, before market open)/30 January AEDT
• Apple: 29 January (US time, after market close) | 30 January AEDT

Earnings from US mega-cap technology companies are likely to dominate headlines, but next week is also one of the busiest periods so far this earnings season across multiple sectors. 

Markets are likely to focus on guidance, margins and capital expenditure as much as the headline results.

Market impact

• Nasdaq leadership breadth may respond to guidance consistency
• With equity markets remaining generally strong, current valuations will again be tested
• Overall performance across sectors will be viewed as a lens into the state of the econ

(Note: Dates may be subject to change)

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Gold

At the US close on 22 January 2026, COMEX gold futures traded around US$4,920/oz, with the psychologically important 5,000 level in view. 

Sensitivity to Treasury yields and the USD, policy uncertainty, and geopolitical developments may influence price action either way.

Market impact

• Gold prices can remain sensitive to changes in Treasury yields, USD movements and geopolitical developments.
• Movements around record levels can be volatile and unpredictable, and may reverse quickly.

Final takeaways

• If Australian CPI suggests inflation persistence, market pricing may continue to lean toward a February RBA move
• If the Fed narrative is less dovish than expected, current assumptions may be challenged
• If mega-cap earnings reinforce valuation confidence, leadership from these stocks may help support broader equity levels
• If gold holds near record highs, USD weakness and hedging demand may remain key drivers

FX markets face a data-heavy period in the coming days, led by US inflation releases and late-week flash purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs). 

Regional data and central bank expectations in Japan, Europe, and Australia may influence cross-currency moves, particularly if outcomes differ from expectations.

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Quick facts:

• US Personal Income and Outlays is a key inflation release this week, closely watched by policymakers.
• Flash PMIs across the US, Eurozone, Germany, and the UK offer a timely read on growth momentum.
• Australian data, including labour market indicators, remains important for AUD sensitivity and Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) expectations.
• FX markets can be sensitive when data outcomes differ from expectations.

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USDJPY

What to watch

US attention centres on inflation and activity data, particularly the Personal Income and Outlays report and the PCE price index, alongside late-week flash manufacturing and services PMIs.

These releases are closely followed by markets for their potential influence on rate expectations and USD sensitivity.

On the JPY side, Bank of Japan (BoJ) developments remain relevant, although US data has often been a key driver of recent moves.

Key releases and events

• Fri 23 Jan (US): US Personal Income and Outlays (including PCE inflation)
• Fri 23 Jan (US): Manufacturing and services PMI

Technical snapshot

USDJPY continues to trade above its rising 200-day moving average, with recent daily candles showing greater overlap and smaller ranges over recent weeks.

• Price has remained above the long-term average since late September, with higher swing lows still visible.
• Momentum appears to have moderated since early January, consistent with slowing follow-through rather than reversal.
• Daily ranges have narrowed compared with the October to November advance, again suggesting short-term consolidation.

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EURUSD

What to watch

Eurozone flash PMIs and Germany producer price index (PPI) data provide insights into regional growth momentum and whether inflation pressures are building.

While these releases may influence immediate EUR sentiment, EURUSD continues to trade in the broader context of US data outcomes and global risk conditions.

Key releases and events

• Thu 22 Jan: Germany Producer Price Index (PPI)
• Fri 23 Jan: Eurozone / Germany flash PMIs (manufacturing and services)

Technical snapshot

EURUSD is trading above its rising 200-day moving average (daily chart), although price action since July suggests the market has become more range-bound rather than directional, following the advances in the first half of 2025.

• The broader upward structure has been in place since the beginning of 2025, although progress higher has stalled over recent months.
• Momentum readings have drifted toward neutral since late November, consistent with balanced conditions.
• Average daily range has continued to compress since July, consistent with a flattening of the trend.

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GBPAUD

What to watch

Australian labour market data remains central for AUD sensitivity and RBA expectations. UK CPI is also due this week, which may contribute to cross volatility, particularly if it shifts expectations around the UK rates outlook.

Late-week PMI releases can also influence short-term direction, especially where they add to or challenge the current growth narrative.

Key releases and events

• Wed 21 Jan: UK CPI
• Thu 22 Jan: Australia Labour Force, Australia (December 2025)
• Fri 23 Jan: UK flash PMIs (manufacturing and services)

Technical snapshot

• GBPAUD continues to trade below its long-term moving average, with price action remaining in a downside direction since late November.
• The long-term average flattened through September and has turned lower since October, with the price remaining below and showing recent signs of a greater gap between the price and the moving average.
• Momentum has remained below neutral over recent months, with any retracements to the upside showing limited follow-through.
• Daily ranges have narrowed compared with earlier swings, suggesting a consistent but controlled drop in price rather than impulsive movement.

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Bottom line

With multiple data releases due across key regions, FX markets may remain sensitive to outcomes that differ from expectations.

Existing technical conditions suggest that reactions may vary by pair, with some markets consolidating while others could retain recent directional characteristics.