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The Olympic and Winter Olympic Games capture global attention for weeks, drawing millions of viewers and dominating headlines. For traders, this attention often feels like a catalyst, yet the real market drivers remain the same: macroeconomics, policy, and global risk sentiment, not the sporting calendar.
So why do some traders say results feel weaker during major sporting events?
Often it comes down to a failure to adapt to conditions that can shift at the margin, particularly liquidity and participation.
1. Expecting “event volatility”
A major global event can create an assumption that markets should move more. Some traders position for breakouts or increase risk in anticipation of bigger swings, even when conditions don’t support it.
Key drivers
- In some markets and sessions, reduced participation can weaken trend follow-through
- Sentiment can inflate expectations beyond what price action delivers
Example: A trader expects a breakout during the Olympic opening ceremony period, but low regional participation limits price movement, leading to false starts.
2. Forcing trades in quiet sessions
When price action is slower and ranges compress, some traders feel pressure to stay active and take lower-quality entries.
Key drivers
- Narrow intraday ranges can increase false signals
- Lower conviction can favour consolidation over trend, raising false-break risk
- “Staying engaged” can reduce selectivity
Takeaway: Use quieter sessions to refine setups or review data rather than forcing marginal trades.
3. Ignoring thinner liquidity
Participation can ease slightly during major global events, and the impact is often more pronounced on shorter timeframes. Daily charts may look normal, while intraday price action becomes choppier with more wicks.
Key drivers
- In lower-depth conditions, price can jump more easily, and wick size can increase
- In some instruments and sessions, thinner liquidity can coincide with wider spreads and more variable execution (varies by market, venue and broker conditions)
Timeframe sensitivity to thinner conditions
The above table is illustrative only (varies by market): Daily charts may look normal. Five-minute charts can feel more erratic.
Low volume big wicks example
4. Using normal size in abnormal conditions
Even if overall volatility looks stable, execution risk can rise when liquidity thins, especially for short-term or scalping-style approaches.
Key drivers
- Slippage can increase, and stops may “overshoot”
- Thin conditions can trigger stops more easily in noise
- Wider spreads can shift entry/exit outcomes versus normal conditions
Adjustment: Maintaining fixed sizing may distort effective risk. Some traders review transaction costs, including spreads, and execution conditions when setting risk parameters such as stops/limits, particularly in thinner sessions.
5. Trading breakouts with low follow-through
Trend-following tactics can falter when participation declines. Momentum may dissipate quickly, and false breaks become more common.
Key drivers
- Reduced flow can limit sustained directional moves
- Some low-liquidity regimes may favour mean reversion over momentum
Example: A classic range breakout appears valid intraday but fades rapidly as follow-through volume fails to materialise.
Failed breakout example
6. Overlooking timing and distraction risk
There is no reliable evidence that the Olympic calendar predictably drives geopolitical events. But when tensions are already elevated, major global events can sometimes coincide with attention being spread elsewhere, somewhat similar to holidays, elections or major summits.
Traders should identify when conditions are slower or thinner and adjust accordingly, aligning tactics with reduced follow-through risk and calibrating position sizes to execution reality. Most importantly, avoid forcing trades when edge is limited during these periods.
Upcming economic events
The torch is lit in Milan, and public attention has moved from the opening-ceremony theatrics to the competition on the slopes.
But for forex (FX) traders, eyes are still on the euro (EUR) charts. With Italy at the centre of the sporting world, the eurozone economy is facing one of its most-watched moments of the year.
1. The home court advantage (Italy’s economy)
Some estimates suggest the Olympics could deliver roughly a €5.3 billion boost to the Italian economy, driven by direct spending and a longer tourism tail once the flame goes out. In practical terms, that can mean a front-loaded “direct expenditure” phase. Hospitality, retail and transport demand can peak as an estimated 2.5 million spectators move between Milan and the Dolomites.
Checklist task: Watch Italy industrial production (Wednesday, 11 February 2026). While the Games may support services activity, it’s worth tracking whether broader production data is keeping pace or if the Olympic impact is narrowly concentrated in tourism‑linked sectors.
2. The ECB signals
At its 5 February meeting, the European Central Bank (ECB) held policy settings steady at 2.15% and the deposit facility at 2.00%. President Christine Lagarde signalled that while inflation appears to be stabilising, the ECB remains in “wait and see” mode.
Checklist task: Monitor speeches from ECB members this week. Any shift in tone, including a more hawkish tilt that suggests rates may stay higher for longer, could act as a potential tailwind for EUR/USD, especially if it contrasts with a more cautious Federal Reserve tone.
3. Navigate the London-New York overlap
The most prestigious Olympic finals often land in the European evening. For traders, this lines up with the London to New York session overlap (typically 14:00 to 17:00 GMT). That’s when liquidity is deepest in EUR crosses and when positioning can whipsaw around data and headlines.
Checklist task: Expect possible peak liquidity and the potential for “false breakouts” during these hours. If a major US data point (such as Tuesday’s retail sales, or Friday’s CPI) lands while European markets are still open, EUR pairs may see a volatility pickup.
GO Markets week ahead
4. Safe haven slopes
While the euro is the star of the show, the Olympics can still be shadowed by broader geopolitical noise. For example, gold is already trading around the US$5,000 mark after briefly breaking above it in early February, driven by central‑bank buying, expectations of a weaker dollar, and upgraded year‑end forecasts.
Checklist task: If sentiment turns risk-off, watch traditional haven assets such as the Swiss franc (CHF) and gold. Gold has seen large swings recently and is currently testing resistance near US$5,000. EUR/CHF may also see higher volatility if geopolitical headlines intensify during the Games.
5. GDP final standings
The week wraps with the eurozone’s Q4 GDP (second estimate) on Friday, 13 February 2026.
Checklist task: The preliminary estimate showed 0.3% growth. If the figure is revised upward, it may reinforce the eurozone’s resilience and could support a late-week bid in EUR.
Bottom line
While the “Olympic boost” may offer a sentiment cushion for Italy, the euro’s direction is still likely to be shaped by whether the ECB’s “wait and see” stance is challenged by Friday’s GDP update or Wednesday’s industrial production release.
With gold hovering near US$5,000 and the US facing a calendar affected by rescheduled data, volatility could stay elevated into key overlap hours, right as prime-time events are taking place.
Your complete day-by-day guide to Australian medal chances and market-moving moments during the Milano Cortina Winter Olympics.
Quick Facts
- Opening Ceremony: 6:00 am, 7 February AEDT (8:00 pm, 6 February Milan).
- Prime viewing window: 4:00 am to 2:00 pm AEDT daily coincides with pre-market and ASX trading hours.
- Medal ceremonies: Typically run from 6:00 am to 7:00 am AEDT. Perfect for pre-market position adjustments.
- 53 Australian athletes competing: The second-largest Australian Winter Olympic team ever, with 10 genuine medal contenders.
GO Markets Olympic Schedule
Olympic Schedule
All times shown in AEDT
Opening Ceremony + first medals - Saturday, February 7
Opening Ceremony at breakfast time, then the first gold medal awarded in primetime on Saturday.
Harry Laidlaw represents Australia in the Men's Downhill, the Games' first Gold medal event, while cross-country skiers Rosie Fordham and Phoebe Cridland compete late Saturday night.
This same-day pairing of ceremony and first medals creates maximum media saturation, with a full weekend news cycle processing before Monday's ASX open.
Key events
- Opening Ceremony: 6:00 am AEDT
- Men's Downhill Final (first gold medal of the games): 9:30 pm AEDT
- Women's 10km + 10km Skiathlon: 11:00 pm AEDT
For traders
- NEC (Nine Entertainment): Double viewership event. Opening Ceremony 6:00 am Saturday, lines up for the peak morning TV audience. First medals at 9:30 pm are a primetime Saturday night.
- Italian equities (FTSE MIB): Historically underperform during domestic Olympics. Turin 2006 saw -2.1% during the Games.
- STLA (Stellantis): ESG headline risk if environmental groups target the ceremony.
- Apparel sponsor arbitrage: If a non-favourite wins Men's Downhill, their sponsor sees average +2.3% pop (PyeongChang 2018, Beijing 2022 data).
First medals continue - Sunday, February 8
The medal rush continues on Sunday as 19-year-old Valentino Guseli takes flight in Men's Snowboard Big Air, offering Australia an early podium chance in one of the Games' most visually spectacular events.
With the ceremony glow still fresh, Guseli's performance sets the tone for Australia's snowboard campaign and could influence Monday's ASX open positioning for action sports stocks.
Key events
- Men's Snowboard Big Air Final (Valentino Guseli): 5:30 am AEDT
- Women's Normal Hill Individual Final: 5:57 am AEDT
For traders
- MNST (Monster Beverage): Action sports sponsor, benefits from multi-athlete Olympic presence.
- FL (Foot Locker), ZUMZ (Zumiez): Youth retail action sports exposure. Guseli gold could create a temporary buzz.
Monday, February 9
A rare quiet day in Australia's Olympic calendar. No Australian medal events are scheduled, making this a pure observation day for traders.
Monitor how Guseli's weekend result is processed through Monday's ASX open, and position ahead of Tuesday's Coady showdown.
Tuesday, February 10
Tess Coady attempts to upgrade her 2022 bronze to gold in Women's Snowboard Big Air. The Tuesday morning timing offers traders a potential pre-market positioning window, though Coady's modest mainstream profile limits exposure compared to the moguls stars on the following day.
Key events
- Women's Snowboard Big Air Final: 5:30 am AEDT
For traders
- FL (Foot Locker), ZUMZ (Zumiez): Youth retail. Coady gold could create a temporary buzz.
- MNST (Monster Beverage): Less volatile, general action sports sponsor.
Wednesday, February 11
The calm before Jakara Anthony. No Australian events on Wednesday means traders spend the day positioning for the biggest moment of the Games: Anthony's moguls final just past midnight.
Moguls Finals - Thursday, February 12
The biggest moment of the Games for Australia arrives just after midnight on Wednesday with Jakara Anthony defending her Olympic crown in the Women's Moguls Final.
As the nation's brightest gold medal hope with 26 World Cup victories, Anthony's 12:15 am performance is the single highest-impact potential event for NEC and VFC stocks across the entire Olympic fortnight.
Matt Graham also chases his first Olympic gold at 10:15 pm Thursday night. Both events carry high NEC and VFC volatility potential.
Key events
- Women's Moguls Final (Jakara Anthony): 12:15 am AEDT
- Men's Moguls Final (Matt Graham): 10:15 pm AEDT
For traders
- NEC (Nine Entertainment): Monitor overnight results and viewership for Thursday open direction.
- VFC (VF Corp/North Face): Sponsors both athletes. A double medal could bring a larger impact.
- Defending champion volatility: An Anthony loss could create higher emotional swings.
- Social sentiment: Track Twitter/Google Trends Thursday morning to gauge the magnitude of Anthony’s performance.
Friday, February 13
Snowboard cross takes centre stage with two Australian medal chances bookending Friday's trading day.
Adam Lambert's overnight final sets the morning open, while Josie Baff's evening showdown takes the Aus prime time slot.
Key events
- Men's Snowboard Cross Finals: 12:56 am AEDT
- Women's Snowboard Cross Finals: 7:30 pm AEDT
For traders
- NEC sentiment gauge: If Lambert medals Fri morning and Graham medaled Thu night, it could create positive momentum.
Jakara Anthony competes - Saturday, February 14
Jakara Anthony goes for the double in Saturday night's Women's Dual Moguls Final.
If she claims gold Thursday and again here, the "double gold Jakara" narrative writes itself, offering geometric rather than linear media value.
Key events
- Women's Dual Moguls Final (Jakara Anthony): 9:46 pm AEDT
For traders
- NEC narrative power: "Double gold Jakara" could draw in more casual viewers.
- If Anthony silver/bronze Thu: Redemption story potential.
- Weekend timing: Saturday night result = Monday ASX gap.
- Format risk: Monitor qualifying rounds; if margins are greater than 1 second (blowouts), engagement could drop.
Sunday, February 15
A quiet Sunday offers redemption arcs and low-impact action. Brendan Corey's morning short track effort carries minimal stock relevance, while Matt Graham's late-night dual moguls final provides a second medal chance after Friday's traditional event.
Key events
- Short Track Speed Skating 1500m Final: 8:42 am AEDT
- Men's Dual Moguls Final: 9:46 pm AEDT
For traders
- VFC second opportunity: If Graham misses on Friday’s moguls, dual moguls redemption is possible.
Monday, February 16
Harry Laidlaw returns to the slopes for late Monday night slalom action, but alpine skiing holds minimal sway over Australian audiences.
This is a placeholder day in the trading calendar, with markets more focused on digesting the weekend moguls results and positioning for Tuesday's monobob final.
Key events
- Men's Slalom: 11:00 pm AEDT
Bree Walker competes - Tuesday, February 17
Bree Walker could make Olympic history as she competes in the Women's Monobob Final, chasing Australia's first-ever bobsleigh medal.
While the narrative is powerful, the commercial reality is that bobsleigh has no retail sponsor footprint, limiting direct stock plays.
Key events
- Pairs Figure Skating Final: 6:00 am AEDT
- Women's Monobob Final: 7:06 am AEDT
For traders
- NEC: Bobsleigh historically gets low ratings, but a Walker gold could provide value as an Australian-first.
Wednesday, February 18
Veterans Laura Peel and Danielle Scott take centre stage on Wednesday night in an event with proud Australian history (2 golds since 2002). However, aerials' niche appeal and late-night timing may limit market impact.
Key events
- Women's Aerials Final: 9:30 pm AEDT
- Women's Slalom Final: 11:30 pm AEDT
For traders
- NEC: If either medals, potential for a small sentiment boost.
- VFC exposure: Limited potential as aerials athletes are less commercially developed.
Thursday, February 19
Thursday night aerials effort is a low-impact finale event with minimal medal expectation for Australian Reilly Flanagan, and even less market relevance.
Scotty James' Saturday halfpipe showdown is the real conversation as the games begin winding down, although a medal run from Flanagan could create an underdog narrative.
Key events
- Men's Aerials Final: 9:30 pm AEDT
Friday, February 20
The final calm before Scotty James' legacy-defining Saturday. Set up day for James' 5:30 am Saturday halfpipe final, the Games' last major potential volatility event for an Aussie athlete.
Scotty James competes - Saturday, February 21
Scotty James' legacy moment arrives Saturday morning. He’s represented Australia at five Olympics, with two medals and zero golds. This is his final chance and brings with it the Games' most emotionally charged event, and the last major trading catalyst before Monday's Closing Ceremony.
Key events
- Men's Snowboard Halfpipe Final (Scotty James): 5:30 am AEDT
- SkiMo Mixed Relay: 11:30 pm AEDT
For traders
- NEC: Potential weekend delays on price discovery. If James gold Saturday.
- NKE (Nike): Potential halo effect from gold via action sports lift.
- Guseli wildcard: Valentino is also competing (his second event after Big Air, Feb 8). A dual medal could create narrative amplification.
Sunday, February 22
Sixteen-year-old Indra Brown takes the Sunday morning spotlight in Women's Freeski Halfpipe, facing off against favourite Eileen Gu (CHN) in what could become a Gen-Z brand inflection point.
Key events
- Women's Freeski Halfpipe Final (Indra Brown): 5:30 am AEDT
- Two-Woman Bobsleigh Final: 7:05 am
For traders
- Mon-Tue watch: Monitor which brands announce Brown signings.
- MILN (Global X Millennials ETF): Action sports retailers, social platforms exposure for Gen Z.
Closing Ceremony - Monday, February 23
The curtain falls on Milano Cortina 2026 with Monday morning's Closing Ceremony, and history says this is where euphoria dies.
- Men's Ice Hockey Final (NHL Superstars): 12:10 am AEDT
- Closing Ceremony: 6:00 am AEDT
Markets to watch:
- French Alps 2030 rotation: Closing features handover to France.
- Australian medal count: If greater than 4 medals (Beijing total), the government may increase 2030 winter sports funding.
- Ice Hockey Final: NHL players compete for the first time since 2014. Major US/Canada viewership means a potential CMCSA boost.
Global markets move into the new week with a number of potentially high-impact catalysts. Japan’s general election lands first on Sunday, followed by US inflation and labour market data that continue to shape interest-rate expectations.
- Japan election: Policy continuity and political stability are generally viewed as supportive for regional markets.
- US inflation and labour market: The consumer price index (CPI) and the Employment Situation report (nonfarm payrolls, NFP) are the immediate macro focal points for the week.
- Bitcoin risk gauge: Bitcoin is back near levels last seen in late 2024 and remains well below its October 2025 peak.
- Sector rotation watch: Technology has recently underperformed while value and defensive segments have stabilised, with earnings season continuing to influence flows.
Japan election
The general election in Japan is primarily viewed through the lens of policy certainty. Markets typically favour a clear outcome and continuity in fiscal and monetary settings.
Unexpected results or coalition uncertainty may increase short-term volatility in the JPY and regional indices at the start of the week.
Key dates
- General election (Japan): Sunday, 8 February
- Results through Asian trade on Monday
Market impact
- JPY may be sensitive to results uncertainty or potential changes in policy direction
- Asia equities may see early-week volatility until results are clear
US inflation and labour market
Inflation remains the most direct input into interest-rate expectations, while the monthly NFP report provides a broad read on employment conditions and wage pressures.
Treasury yields and the USD often react quickly to these releases, with knock-on effects across equities, gold and growth assets.
Current pricing indicates markets assign less than a 30% probability of a cut by the April meeting, with June meeting hike probabilities above 50%.
Key dates
- Employment Situation: Wednesday, 11 February 08:30 (ET) | Thursday, 12 February 00:30 (AEDT)
- CPI (January 2026): Friday, 13 February 08:30 (ET) Saturday, 14 February 00:30 (AEDT)
Market impact
- Yields often move first, followed by USD and then risk assets
- Expectations for rate-cut timing may adjust quickly
- Growth and technology shares remain more rate-sensitive
Bitcoin
Bitcoin has declined to levels last seen prior to the US elections in November 2024 and is close to 50% below its October 2025 peak.
While not a traditional macro indicator, crypto markets could be viewed as a real-time read on investor risk tolerance. Sustained weakness can coincide with more cautious positioning across higher-beta assets, including technology shares.
Market impact
- Softer crypto sentiment may coincide with reduced speculative flows
- Risk appetite may remain more selective
Sector rotation
Over the past week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has outperformed, trading just below neutral, while the Nasdaq-100 has declined more than 4%, reflecting sensitivity in large-cap technology to firmer yields.
What the move may reflect
- Rate-driven pressure on growth stocks
- Profit-taking after strong tech performance
- Earnings season favouring broader sector participation
- A generally more cautious tone across higher-beta assets
Markets typically look for sustained multi-week outperformance in financials, industrials or defensives before characterising the shift as structural rotation.
Market impact
- Tech remains more sensitive to yield moves
- Value and defensive sectors may see relative support
- Earnings guidance continues to influence leadership
February’s FX landscape is likely to be driven by inflation persistence, labour resilience, and central bank communications. With several high-impact data releases across the US, Europe, Japan and Australia, near-term moves may be more event-driven and repricing-led, rather than trend-led.
Quick facts
- USD remains the key reference point, with US data driving repricing in yields and the broader FX market.
- EUR sensitivity remains high around European Central Bank (ECB) messaging and incoming inflation and activity signals.
- JPY remains tightly linked to domestic data and Bank of Japan (BOJ) communication, with USD/JPY often reacting sharply to shifts in yield expectations.
- AUD remains policy sensitive, with domestic inflation and labour data likely to matter most, alongside global risk tone and metals.
US dollar (USD)
Key events
- Nonfarm payrolls (NFP) and unemployment: 8:30 am, 11 February (ET) | 12:30 am, 12 February (AEDT)
- Consumer Price Index (CPI), headline and core: 8:30 am, 13 February (ET) | 12:30, 13 February (AEDT)
- Personal income and outlays (includes the PCE price index): 8:30, 20 February (ET) | 12:30, 21 February (AEDT)
What to watch
The USD is likely to remain primarily driven by shifts in inflation and labour data and their implications for Federal Reserve rate expectations. Recent headlines surrounding Federal Reserve independence have also added volatility to USD positioning.
Stronger inflation or labour resilience is often associated with firmer USD support via higher yield expectations. Softer outcomes could reduce rate support and allow pairs like EUR/USD and AUD/USD to stabilise.
Key chart: US dollar index (DXY) weekly chart
Euro (EUR)
Key events
- ECB policy decision: 12:15 am, 6 February (AEDT)
- ECB press conference: 12:45 am, 6 February (AEDT)
- ECB flash estimates for GDP and employment: 8:00 pm, 13 February (AEDT)
What to watch
EUR direction remains linked to whether the ECB can maintain its stance without a material deterioration in activity, or whether inflation and growth data pull forward easing expectations.
Resilient growth and firm inflation could support the “higher for longer” pricing bias. Weaker growth or softer inflation could weigh on the currency, particularly if they bring forward easing expectations.
Key chart: EUR/USD weekly chart
Japanese yen (JPY)
Key events
- Japan preliminary GDP (Q4 2025, first preliminary): 6:50 pm, 15 February (ET) | 10:50 am, 16 February (AEDT)
- National CPI (Japan): 20 February (Japan)
What to watch
JPY remains sensitive to domestic yield shifts and BOJ communication. Even modest adjustments to policy expectations could generate outsized moves in USD/JPY.
Firm growth or inflation outcomes could support JPY via higher domestic yields and shifting BOJ expectations. Softer outcomes or cautious policy messaging could keep USD/JPY supported.
Key chart: USD/JPY daily chart
Australian dollar (AUD)
Key events
- RBA minutes: 11:30 am, 17 February (AEDT)
- Wage Price Index: 11:30 am, 18 February (AEDT)
- Labour Force Survey: 11:30 am, 19 February (AEDT)
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 11:30 am, 25 February (AEDT)
What to watch
AUD remains sensitive to policy, responding quickly to domestic inflation and labour data, as well as global risk sentiment and its impact on metal pricing.
Persistent wages or inflation pressures could support AUD via firmer policy expectations. Softening data could reduce rate support and weigh on AUD performance, particularly versus USD and JPY.
Key chart: EUR/AUD daily chart
Three data levers dominate the US markets in February: growth, labour and inflation. Beyond those, policy communication, trade headlines and geopolitics can still matter, even when they are not tied to a scheduled release date.
Growth: business activity and trade
Early to mid-month indicators provide a read on whether US momentum is stabilising or softening into Q1.
Key dates
- Advance monthly retail sales: 10 Feb, 8:30 am (ET) / 11 Feb, 12:30 am (AEDT)
- Industrial Production and Capacity Utilisation: 18 Feb, 9:15 am (ET) / 19 Feb, 1:15 am (AEDT)
- International Trade in Goods and Services: 19 Feb, 8:30 am (ET) / 20 Feb, 12:30 am (AEDT)
What markets look for
Markets will be watching new orders and output trends in PMIs to gauge underlying demand momentum. Export and import data will offer insights into global trade flows and domestic consumption patterns. Traders will also assess whether manufacturing and services sectors remain in expansionary territory or show signs of contraction.
Market sensitivities
- Stronger growth can be associated with higher yields and a firmer USD, though inflation and policy expectations often dominate the rate response.
- Softer activity can be associated with lower yields and improved risk appetite, depending on inflation, positioning, and broader risk conditions.
Payrolls data
Labour conditions remain a direct input into rate expectations. The monthly NFP report, alongside the weekly jobless claims released every Thursday, is typically watched for signs of cooling or renewed tightness.
Key dates
- Employment Situation (nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, wages): 6 Feb, 8:30 am (ET) / 7 Feb, 12:30 am (AEDT)
What markets look for
Markets will focus on headline payrolls to assess the pace of job creation, the unemployment rate for signals of labour market slack, and average hourly earnings as a gauge of wage pressures. A gradual cooling can support the idea that wage pressures are easing. Persistent tightness may push out expectations for policy easing.
Market sensitivities
Payroll surprises frequently move Treasury yields and the USD quickly, with knock-on effects for equities and commodities.
Inflation: CPI, PPI and PCE
Inflation releases remain a key input into expectations for the Fed’s policy path.
Key dates
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 11 Feb, 8:30 am (ET) / 12 Feb, 12:30 am (AEDT)
- Personal Income and Outlays, including the PCE price index): 20 Feb, 8:30 am (ET) / 21 Feb, 12:30 am (AEDT)
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 27 Feb, 8:30 am (ET) / 28 Feb, 12:30 am (AEDT)
What markets look for
Producer prices can act as a pipeline signal. CPI and the PCE price index can help confirm whether inflation pressures are broadening or fading at the consumer level.
How rates and the USD can react
- Cooling inflation can support lower yields and a softer USD, though market reactions can vary.
- Sticky inflation can keep upward pressure on yields and financial conditions, especially if it shifts policy expectations.
Other influencing factors
Policy and communication
There is no scheduled February FOMC meeting, but speeches and other Fed communication, as well as the minutes cycle from prior meetings, can still influence expectations around the policy path. Without a decision event, markets often react to shifts in tone, or renewed emphasis on inflation persistence and labour conditions.
Trade and geopolitics
Trade flows and energy markets can remain secondary, and the risk profile is typically headline-driven rather than linked to scheduled releases.
The Office of the United States Trade Representative has published fact sheets and policy updates (including on US-India trade engagement) that may occasionally influence sector and supply-chain sentiment at the margin, depending on the substance and market focus at the time.
Separately, volatility tied to Middle East developments and any impact on energy pricing can filter into inflation expectations and bond yields. Weekly petroleum market data from the US Energy Information Administration is one input that markets often monitor for near-term signals.
Every four years, the Olympics does something markets understand very well: it concentrates attention. And when attention concentrates, so do headlines, narratives, positioning… and sometimes, price.
The Olympics isn’t just “two weeks of sport.” For traders, it’s a two-week global marketing and tourism event, delivered in real time, often while Australia is asleep.
So, let’s make this useful.
Scheduled dates: Friday 6 February to Sunday 22 February 2026
Where: Milan, Cortina d’Ampezzo, and alpine venues across northern Italy
What matters (and what doesn’t)
Matters
- Money moving early: Infrastructure, transport upgrades, sponsorship, media rights and tourism booking trends.
- Narrative amid liquidity: Themed trades can run harder than fundamentals, especially when volume shows up but can also reverse quickly.
- Earnings language: Traders often watch whether companies start referencing demand, bookings, ad spend, or guidance tailwinds.
Doesn’t
- Medal counts (controversial statement, I know).
Why the Olympics matter to markets
The Olympics are not just two weeks of sport. For host regions, they often reflect years of planning, investment and marketing and then all of that gets shoved into one concentrated global media moment. That’s why markets pay attention, even when the fundamentals haven’t suddenly reinvented themselves.
Here are a few themes host regions may see. Outcomes vary by host, timing, and the macro backdrop.
Theme map: where headlines usually cluster
Construction and materials
Logistics upgrades, transport links, and “sustainable” builds.
Luxury and tourism
Milan’s fashion-capital status starts turning into demand well before opening night.
Media and streaming
Advertising increases as audiences surge and platforms cash in.
Transport and travel
Airlines, hotels and travel tech riding the volume, and the expectations.
For Australian-based traders, the key idea is exposure, not geography. Italian listings aren’t required to see the theme while simultaneously, some people look for ASX-listed companies whose earnings may be linked to similar forces (travel demand, discretionary spend). The connection is not guaranteed. It depends on the business, the numbers and the valuation.
The ASX shortlist
The ASX shortlist is simply a way to organise the local market by exposure, so you can see which parts of the index are most likely to pick up the spillover. It is not a forecast and it is not a recommendation, it is a framework for tracking how a narrative moves from headlines into sector pricing, and for separating genuine theme exposure from names that are only catching the noise.
Wesfarmers (WES): broad retail exposure that gives a read on the local consumer.
Flight Centre (FLT): may offer higher exposure to travel cycles across retail and corporate.
Corporate Travel Management (CTD): business travel sensitivity, and it often reacts to conference and event demands.
The Aussie toolkit
The Olympics compresses attention, and when attention compresses, a handful of instruments tend to register it first while everything else just picks up noise. The whole point here is monitoring and discipline, not variety.
FX: the fastest headline absorber
Examples: EUR/USD, EUR/AUD, with AUD/JPY often watched as broader risk-sentiment signals.
What it captures: how markets are pricing European optimism, global risk appetite, and where capital is leaning in real time
Index benchmarks: the sentiment dashboard
Examples (index level): Euro Stoxx 50, DAX, FTSE, S&P 500.
What it can capture: whether a headline is broad enough to influence wider positioning, or whether it stays contained to a narrow theme.
Commodities: second order, often the amplifier
Examples: copper (industrial sensitivity), Brent/WTI (energy and geopolitics), gold (risk/uncertainty).
What it can capture: the bigger drivers (USD, rates, growth expectations, weather and geopolitics) with the Olympics usually acting as the wrapper rather than the engine.
Put together, this is not a prediction, and it is not a shopping list. It is a compact map of where the Olympics story is most likely to show itself first, where it might spread next, and where it sometimes shows up late, after everyone has already decided how they feel about it.
Your calendar is not Europe’s calendar
For Aussie traders, the Olympics is a two-week, overnight headline cycle. Much of the “live” information flow is likely to land during the European and US sessions. However, there are three windows to keep in mind.