XAUUSD Analysis 27 – 31 March 2023 The gold price trend can be viewed both positively and negatively in the short and medium term. As the close of last week's Doji bar indicates hesitation in the market. Although the previous three weeks, gold has had strong and consistent buying momentum since the beginning of March.
But even so, the gold price has not yet clearly shown strong selling momentum. Also, last week's close of the Doji bar was a candle close above the 1960 support, the latest high of gold prices on the Weekly timeframe. The bull rose to test the resistance 2070, which is an important resistance at the weekly timeframe level or the price line that gold has ever done the most in history. and in the event that gold prices cannot continue to rise A retracement to support at the time frame level of 1880 is the next target to watch.
But regardless of whether the price will rise or fall Short-term forecasts on the time frame day can be seen as the possibility of a sideways or consolidation between the 1960 support and the 2000 resistance until the price direction is clear. GBPUSD Analysis 27 – 31 March 2023 The GBPUSD outlook is bullish in the short and medium term, as the pair is currently moving sideways on the daily time frame and H4 (support 1.19140 and resistance 1.21460) rises above them. 1.21460 plus continued buying momentum based on the weekly nighttime buy candlestick, although last week's closing price has retraced. Still, the price has yet to show a strong sell candle on the Weekly timeframe, indicating a clear uptrend in both the short and medium term. forecasting that price There is a tendency for the price to rise to test the resistance of 1.24470, which is a key resistance at the time frame, which in the past the price has previously tested and formed a Double Top pattern, with the key support being 1.21460, a key support at the Tai level.
Timeframe predicts that the price may be shortened or sideways. Corrected to rebound to test the resistance of 1.24470, which is the price target of GBPUSD. EURUSD Analysis 27 – 31 March 2023 The EURUSD started to lose its buying momentum significantly as the weekly timeframe was bullish as much as half of the candlestick. (Significantly) as last week's closing price was lower than last week's high.
After rallying to test the 1.08800 time frame resistance and then breaking up to the 1.09300 level, which was the strongest upside of the week. Before there is a continuous sell down forecasting that price There may be both upward and downward directions in the medium term, such as the time frame day. Due to the loss of buying momentum last week, the trend or trend of the price becomes less clear.
The important price line to watch in the day frame is support 1.05250 (latest low) and resistance 1.08800 (latest high).
By
Weerapat Wongsri
Analyst.
GO Markets Bangkok, since 2019.
Disclaimer: Articles are from GO Markets analysts and contributors and are based on their independent analysis or personal experiences. Views, opinions or trading styles expressed are their own, and should not be taken as either representative of or shared by GO Markets. Advice, if any, is of a ‘general’ nature and not based on your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Consider how appropriate the advice, if any, is to your objectives, financial situation and needs, before acting on the advice.
The latest move in oil has put energy names back in focus. Over the past six months, Exxon Mobil and Baker Hughes have outperformed Brent crude on a normalised basis, Chevron has remained broadly constructive, SLB has lagged the commodity and Woodside's broker consensus has been more measured.
When crude moves, the impact rarely stays contained to the commodity itself. Higher oil prices can affect inflation expectations, shipping costs and corporate margins across the global economy.
What the latest move is showing
There are three broad ways companies can benefit from firmer oil prices:
Producing oil and gas, by selling the commodity at a higher price
Providing services and equipment to producers
Transporting oil around the world
Each of the names below represents one of those exposure types, with a different risk profile when crude rises.
1. Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM)
Over the past six months, Exxon Mobil has outperformed Brent crude, with its share price up nearly 35% compared with about 30% for Brent. As of 11 March 2026, both were trading just over 3% below their all-time highs, while Exxon remained closer to its 52-week high.
Exxon Mobil is one of the world's largest integrated oil companies, with exposure spanning exploration, production, refining and chemicals. When oil prices rise, its upstream business may benefit from wider margins, while its scale and diversification can help cushion weaker parts of the cycle.
Exxon Mobil (XOM) vs. Brent Crude 3-month performance
Exxon Mobil and Brent crude normalised performance over six months, as of 11 March 2026 at the time of writing | Source: Share Trader
Analyst consensus: Buy
According to TradingView data, analyst sentiment towards Exxon is broadly positive. Of the 31 analysts tracked, 15 rate the stock Strong Buy or Buy, 13 rate it Hold, 1 rates it Sell and 2 rate it Strong Sell.
That positive view is linked to Exxon's balance sheet strength and higher-margin production. The most optimistic analysts project a 1-year price target as high as US$183.00. The average price target is US$145.00, which sits about 3.6% below the current trading price.
Exxon Mobil analyst ratings and price targets, as of 11 March 2026 at the time of writing | Source: TradingView
2. Chevron (NYSE: CVX)
Chevron is another global integrated major that has benefited from the recent move higher in crude, with its shares trading near 52-week highs. Like Exxon, Chevron operates across the value chain, including upstream production, refining and marketing.
Chevron's completed acquisition of Hess adds Guyana and other upstream assets, which some analysts see as supportive over time. That said, the earnings impact remains subject to integration, project execution and commodity price risks.
Exxon Mobil vs Chevron performance, 6-month chart
Chevron and Exxon Mobil normalised performance over six months, as of 11 March 2026 at the time of writing | Source: Share Trader
Analyst consensus: Buy
Chevron is viewed similarly to Exxon, with broker sentiment remaining broadly constructive. Recent TradingView aggregates show 30 analysts covering the stock over the past three months, with 17 rating it Strong Buy or Buy, 11 at Hold, 1 at Sell and 1 at Strong Sell.
Analysts have highlighted Chevron's diversified portfolio and the potential contribution from Hess, although commodity price volatility and execution risk may keep some more cautious.
Chevron analyst ratings and price targets, as of 11 March 2026 at the time of writing | Source: TradingView
3. SLB (NYSE: SLB)
SLB, previously known as Schlumberger, is one of the world's largest oilfield services and technology providers. It supplies tools, equipment and software that help producers find, drill and complete wells more efficiently.
Over the past six months, SLB has lagged Brent crude, with the share price trading in a choppier range and remaining below its recent peak. That suggests the stronger oil backdrop has not been fully reflected in the share price.
That pattern is not unusual for oilfield services companies, where customer spending decisions often follow moves in the underlying commodity rather than move in lockstep with them. Any future re-rating would depend on factors including producer capital spending, contract timing, service pricing, offshore activity and broader market conditions. A firmer oil price should not be assumed to translate automatically into a firmer SLB share price.
SLB vs Brent crude, 1-month normalised performance
SLB and Brent crude normalised performance over six months, as of 11 March 2026 at the time of writing | Source: Share Trader
Consensus: Buy
According to TradingView data, third-party analyst consensus on SLB is Buy. Of the 33 analysts covering the stock, 27 rate it Strong Buy or Buy, 4 rate it Hold and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell.
That indicates constructive broker sentiment, although the gap between oil prices and SLB's recent share-price performance suggests investors may still want clearer evidence of improving service demand and pricing before the stock fully reflects the stronger commodity backdrop.
SLB analyst ratings and price targets, as of 11 March 2026 at the time of writing | Source: TradingView
4. Baker Hughes (NASDAQ: BKR)
Baker Hughes is another major oilfield services and equipment provider, with additional exposure to industrial segments such as LNG and power infrastructure. Even when oil prices are not at extreme highs, advances in drilling technology and lower break-even costs have helped keep many shale plays profitable, supporting demand for its services.
The company has also been described as well positioned because of its balance sheet and its exposure to ongoing exploration and production activity. In a period of higher, or even stable-to-firm, oil prices, that mix of services and energy technology may create several revenue drivers.
Over the past six months, Baker Hughes has materially outperformed Brent crude on a normalised basis. Brent traded in a much tighter range for most of the period before moving higher late, while BKR climbed more steadily and reached a significantly stronger cumulative gain. That suggests BKR's share price benefited not only from the backdrop in oil, but also from company-specific optimism and broader support for oilfield services and energy technology names.
BKR vs Brent crude, 6-month normalised performance
Baker Hughes and Brent crude normalised performance over six months, as of 11 March 2026 at the time of writing | Source: Share Trader
Analyst consensus: Buy
According to TradingView data, Baker Hughes is categorised as Strong Buy. Based on 25 analysts who provided ratings over the past three months, 16 rated the stock Strong Buy, 3 rated it Buy, 4 rated it Hold, 1 rated it Sell and 1 rated it Strong Sell.
Overall, broker sentiment towards Baker Hughes is broadly positive, with more than three quarters of covering analysts rating the stock either Strong Buy or Buy, while most of the remainder were at Hold. That supportive analyst view appears to reflect BKR's exposure to both traditional oilfield services and broader energy and industrial technology markets, including LNG infrastructure.
Baker Hughes analyst ratings and price targets, as of 11 March 2026 at the time of writing | Source: TradingView
5. Woodside Energy (ASX: WDS)
Woodside Energy gives the list an Australia-based producer with significant exposure to LNG and oil markets. Its earnings are closely tied to realised commodity prices, which makes the stock sensitive to shifts in crude and gas pricing, as well as broader global energy demand.
Compared with some of the larger US energy names, broker sentiment towards Woodside appears more measured. Investors are balancing the company's global LNG exposure and leverage to stronger energy prices against softer recent realised prices, project and execution risks, and longer-term regulatory and decarbonisation pressures.
Analyst consensus: Hold
According to TradingView data, Woodside is rated Neutral/Hold. Of 15 analysts, 2 rate it Strong Buy, 4 rate it Buy, 7 rate it Hold, 1 rates it Sell and 1 rates it Strong Sell.
The average 12-month price target is A$29.20 versus a current price of about A$30.28, implying downside of roughly 3.6%. Relative to the larger US energy names in this list, that points to a more cautious broker view.
Woodside Energy analyst ratings and price targets, as of 11 March 2026 at the time of writing | Source: TradingView
6. Global oil tanker operators
Oil tanker companies can benefit when firmer oil prices, OPEC+ policy shifts and geopolitical tension increase long-distance shipments and disrupt usual trade routes. When oil volumes travel further, 'tonne-mile' demand can support tanker day rates and profitability even when the broader energy market is volatile.
Analyst consensus: N/A
This is a broader industry category rather than a single publicly traded stock, so there is no single broker consensus to cite. Analyst views would need to be assessed at the company level, such as Frontline plc (FRO), Euronav (EURN) or Scorpio Tankers (STNG).
More broadly, the sector is cyclical. Any benefit from tighter shipping markets can reverse if routes normalise, freight rates fall or supply increases.
Risks and constraints
Higher oil prices do not remove risk for these names.
If prices rise too far, too fast, demand destruction and policy responses can weigh on future earnings.
Political decisions from OPEC+ or other major producers can reverse a rally by increasing supply.
Services and tanker companies are highly cyclical. When the cycle turns, pricing power can fade quickly.
Company-specific issues, including project execution, realised pricing and capital spending, still matter.
Taken together, these names may benefit from firmer oil prices, but they also carry sector-specific, geopolitical and company-level risks that deserve close attention.
Key market observations
Woodside provides LNG and oil exposure, although current broker sentiment is more neutral than for the larger US names.
Tanker operators may benefit when freight markets tighten, though that trade remains highly cyclical and route-dependent.
SLB and Baker Hughes may benefit if firmer oil prices translate into more drilling and completion activity, but the share-price response has been mixed.
Exxon Mobil and Chevron offer direct exposure to stronger upstream margins, supported by diversified operations.
References in this article to Exxon Mobil, Chevron, SLB, Baker Hughes, Woodside, tanker operators, analyst consensus ratings and price targets are included for general market commentary only and do not constitute a recommendation or offer in relation to any financial product or security. Third-party data, including consensus ratings and target prices, may change without notice and should not be relied on in isolation. Energy and shipping exposures are cyclical and can be materially affected by commodity price volatility, realised pricing, production changes, project execution, geopolitical disruptions, freight market conditions, regulatory developments and shifts in investor sentiment. Any views about potential beneficiaries of higher oil prices are subject to significant uncertainty.
Before the charts start talking, the region does. Over the weekend, the Middle East moved from tense to kinetic. Joint US and Israeli strikes hit targets inside Iran, and multiple outlets reported Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed. That single fact changes the whole market sentence structure and it is not just geopolitics, it is risk premia being re-priced in real time, across energy, volatility and the global growth outlook.
Markets do not trade tragedy, rather they trade uncertainty. When the uncertainty sits on top of global energy arteries, price discovery gets loud.
At a glance
What happened: Multiple major outlets reported that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed following joint US and Israeli strikes inside Iran, with Iranian state media cited as confirming his death.
What markets may focus on now: A fast-moving repricing of geopolitical risk premia, led by crude and refined products, plus cross-asset volatility as headlines drive liquidity, correlations and intraday ranges.
What is not happening yet: Markets may be pricing more of a headline risk premium than a fully evidenced, sustained physical supply disruption.
Next 24 to 72 hours: Focus is likely to stay on escalation signals and second-order constraints, including any impact on Gulf shipping routes and the policy and diplomatic track, including any UN Security Council dynamics.
Australia and Asia hook: Flight and airspace disruptions are already spilling beyond the region. For markets, Asia-facing sensitivities can show up through refinery margins and shipping and insurance costs, while AUD can behave as a risk barometer when global risk appetite is unstable.
Oil is the transmission mechanism
Brent crude spiked by as much as 13% in early trade on Monday 2 March, touching around US$82 per barrel in reporting, as the Strait of Hormuz risk moved from theoretical to immediate. The Strait matters because roughly one-fifth of global oil and gas shipments pass through it and when tankers hesitate, insurers re-price, and routes get re-written, energy becomes a volatility product.
Base case: partial disruption and higher “risk premium” in crude, with big intraday swings. Upside risk: a sustained shipping slowdown or direct infrastructurehits, which some analysts warn could push crude materially higher. Downside risk: de-escalation headlines, emergency supply responses, orclearer shipping protection that compresses the risk premium.
The VIX does not move in a vacuum, and this spike in uncertainty is already spilling into other asset classes in a fairly ‘textbook’ way. As volatility reprices, the market’s first instinct has been a flight to safety, alongside a scramble for commodities most exposed to the conflict.
Monday saw Asia opened with that tone: Japan’s Nikkei 225 was reported down around 2.4%, and Australia’s ASX 200 dipped before stabilising. At the same time, defensive positioning showed up in classic safe havens. Gold futures gapped higher by roughly 3% over the weekend, while traditional refuge currencies, led by the Swiss franc, attracted immediate inflows against both the euro and the US dollar.
Equity risk, by contrast, took the hit. US index futures, including the Dow and S&P 500, opened lower as desks moved to price in the twin threat of a wider regional conflict and the inflationary drag that can follow a sharp jump in energy costs.
Gold rallied as the market reached for insurance. Reporting had gold up close to 3% in the same Monday session that oil surged. Worth noting for Aussie and Asia traders: when oil jumps and gold jumps together, the market is often telling you it is worried about both inflation and growth. That is a messy mix for central banks, including the RBA, because petrol-driven inflation can rise even as demand softens.
What this could mean for CFD risk management
Focus 1: map the event risk calendar
In headline-driven markets, prices can move faster than liquidity. The risk is not just being wrong; it can also be timing and execution risk in volatile conditions.
Some traders monitor which developments might change market sentiment (for example, official statements or verified operational updates). If you choose to trade, it may be worth understanding how price gaps and volatility could affect your position, including around session opens and major announcements.
Markets can gap or move quickly, and order execution (including stop orders, if used) may not occur at expected levels, especially in fast conditions or low liquidity. Features and outcomes depend on the product terms and market conditions.
Focus 2: watch the energy to inflation pathway
If crude remains elevated, markets may watch whether inflation expectations shift. If that occurs, it could influence rates, equities and FX and although outcomes depend on multiple factors and can change quickly.
That may be reflected in:
Global bond yields, as rates markets adjust.
Equity valuation sensitivity, particularly in long-duration and growth-heavy areas.
FX moves, including across the Australian dollar, Japanese yen, and some commodity-linked currencies.
March’s foreign exchange (FX) markets could be shaped by several high-impact releases clustered around the first half of the month. China PMIs, Australia GDP, Japan GDP and the Federal Reserve’s March meeting could all influence FX sentiment as the month progresses.
Quick facts
US rate expectations remain stable, with CME FedWatch implying a greater than 85% probability of no rate change at the March FOMC meeting.
China PMIs, CPI/PPI and trade data will help shape early-month regional risk tone.
Australia's GDP, RBA decision, labour force data and CPI create a concentrated domestic event window for AUD.
Japan GDP and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy meeting may influence domestic yield repricing and JPY volatility.
Euro area CPI, industrial production and the ECB Monetary Policy Decision remain key for EUR stability.
US dollar (USD)
Key events
Nonfarm Payrolls: 12:30 am, 7 March (AEDT)
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 11:30 pm, 11 March (AEDT)
Retail Sales: 11:30 pm, 17 March (AEDT)
Federal Reserve policy decision: 5:00 am, 19 March (AEDT)
Federal Reserve press conference: 5:30 am, 19 March (AEDT)
What to watch
The USD remains primarily driven by inflation and labour data and their implications for Federal Reserve pricing.
CME FedWatch pricing indicates that markets are assigning a greater than 85% probability of no rate change at the March FOMC meeting. This suggests positioning is currently anchored around a pause, increasing sensitivity to any inflation surprise that could shift expectations.
With a pause largely priced in, USD direction may hinge more on inflation trajectory and longer-term policy expectations than the decision itself. Firmer CPI or resilient labour data could reinforce yield support.
Euro area CPI (flash estimate): 10:00 pm, 3 March (AEDT)
Euro area industrial production: 9:00 pm, 13 March (AEDT)
ECB Monetary Policy Decision: 12:15 am, 20 March (AEDT)
ECB press conference: 12:45 am, 20 March (AEDT)
Eurozone flash PMI: 8:00 pm, 24 March (AEDT)
What to watch
EUR direction remains linked to inflation persistence and whether growth data stabilise expectations around ECB policy.
Sticky inflation or improved activity data could limit easing expectations and support the EUR. Softer inflation and weaker production data may renew downside pressure, particularly if US data remain firm.
EUR/USD daily structure shows consolidation following an upside extension earlier in the year. Short-term momentum has moderated, with price holding above longer-term support levels.
Japan GDP (Q4 2025, 2nd estimate): 10:50 am, 10 March (AEDT)
Bank of Japan policy meeting: 18–19 March (AEDT)
BOJ statement on monetary policy: 19 March (AEDT)
What to watch
JPY remains sensitive to domestic growth data and Bank of Japan policy decisions. Yield expectations and policy normalisation signals continue to influence USD/JPY and cross-JPY volatility.
The BOJ policy meeting and subsequent communication may influence short-term volatility and longer-term rate expectations, and by extension JPY sentiment.
Stronger GDP or policy signals reinforcing normalisation could support JPY via domestic yield adjustments. More cautious messaging may maintain yield differentials in favour of USD and AUD.
RBA Monetary Policy Decision: 2:30 pm, 17 March (AEDT)
Labour Force Survey: 11:30 am, 19 March (AEDT)
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 11:30 am, 25 March (AEDT)
What to watch
AUD faces a domestic calendar centred around the 16–17 March RBA meeting. Growth, labour and inflation releases cluster within a three-week window, increasing the potential for volatility.
Stronger GDP or persistent inflation could reinforce policy caution and support AUD. Softer labour or CPI outcomes may weigh on rate expectations and pressure AUD, particularly against USD and JPY.
Chinese data early in the month may also influence regional sentiment and commodity-linked currencies such as AUD.
ASX defence stocks are back on more watchlists and according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), global military spending reached approximately US$2.718 trillion in 2024, up 9.4% in real terms.
Australia’s current defence settings are set out in the 2024 National Defence Strategy and related investment planning documents, which outline long-term capability funding priorities. Furthermore, Canberra has pointed to A$330 billion of capability investment through 2034, including added funding for surface combatants, preparedness, long-range strike and autonomous systems.
Here is the part most people miss: not all ASX defence stocks are the same trade. Some sit close to naval shipbuilding. Some are counter-drone names and some are smaller, higher-risk operators where one contract may matter much more than the market assumes.
These five names are not a buy list, rather they are a practical watchlist for investors trying to understand where procurement momentum may actually show up on the ASX.
1) Austal (ASX: ASB)
Austal is one of the ASX-listed companies most directly exposed to Australia’s naval shipbuilding pipeline, although contract execution, margins and delivery timing remain important variables.
They aren't just winning random contracts; they have signed a massive legal agreement (the Strategic Shipbuilding Agreement) that makes them the official partner for building Australia's next generation of mid-sized military ships in Western Australia.
In February 2026, the government gave Austal the green light on a $4 billion project. This isn't for just one ship, it’s for 8 "Landing Craft Heavy" vessels. These are huge transport ships (about 100 metres long) designed to carry heavy tanks and equipment directly onto a beach. But here is the part most people miss, shipbuilding is a marathon, not a sprint.
As you can see in the delivery timeline, while construction starts in 2026, the final ship won't be delivered until 2038. For an investor, this means Austal has a "guaranteed" stream of income for the next 12 years, but they have to be very good at managing their costs over that long period to actually make a profit.
2) DroneShield (ASX: DRO)
If you have seen footage of small drones disrupting modern battlefields, DroneShield is building part of the "off switch". Its focus is counter-drone technology, including systems that detect, disrupt or defeat drones using electronic warfare, sensors and software-led tools, rather than relying only on traditional munitions.
By early 2026, DroneShield had moved beyond the label of a promising start-up and into a much larger commercial phase. It reported FY2025 revenue of A$216.5 million, up 276% from FY2024, and said it started FY2026 with A$103.5 million in committed revenue.
One point the market may overlook is the software layer in the model. DroneShield reported A$11.6 million in Software as a Service (SaaS) revenue in FY2025 and said it is working towards SaaS making up 30% of revenue within five years. Its subscription model includes software updates for deployed systems, which adds a growing stream of recurring revenue alongside hardware sales.
Among ASX defence stocks, DroneShield is one of the most direct ways to follow the counter-UAS theme. It is also one of the names where sentiment can swing quickly, because growth stories can rerate both up and down when order timing changes.
EOS builds both the "brain" and the "muscle" for military platforms. It is best known for remote weapon systems, which allow operators to control armed turrets from inside protected vehicles, and for high-energy laser systems aimed at counter-drone defence. EOS has said its unconditional backlog reached about A$459.1 million in early 2026, following a series of contract wins through 2025. That points to a much larger base of secured work, although delivery timing and revenue conversion still matter.
EOS signed a €71.4 million, about A$125 million, contract with a European customer for a 100-kilowatt high-energy laser weapon system. EOS says the system is designed for a low cost per shot and can engage up to 20 drones a minute. The Australian Government has set aside A$1.3 billion over 10 years for counter-drone capability acquisition, and EOS has disclosed that it was part of a successful LAND 156 bid team. That does not guarantee future revenue, but it does support medium-term visibility in a market the company is already targeting.
EOS reads as a rebound story, but one that still depends on execution. The company has reoriented around remote weapon systems, counter-drone systems and lasers, all areas tied to stronger defence spending. The key question is whether it can keep converting backlog and pipeline into delivered revenue while maintaining balance-sheet discipline.
4) Codan (ASX: CDA)
Codan is sometimes left out of casual defence stock lists because it is more diversified. That may be an oversight. In its H1 FY26 results, Codan said its Communications business designs mission-critical communications for global military and public safety markets. Communications revenue rose 19% to A$221.8 million. The company also said DTC delivered strong growth from defence and unmanned systems demand, with unmanned systems revenue up 68% to A$73 million. Codan said about half of that unmanned revenue was linked to operational defence applications in conflict zones.
This is where the story becomes more nuanced. In a basket of ASX defence stocks, Codan may offer a different profile, with less pure headline sensitivity, broader operating diversification and meaningful exposure to military communications and unmanned systems without being a single-theme name. That diversification may also mean the stock does not always trade like a pure-play defence name.
HighCom sits at the speculative end of this list, and it should be labelled that way. The company says its two continuing businesses are HighCom Armor, which supplies ballistic protection, and HighCom Technology, which supplies and maintains small and medium uncrewed aerial systems, counter-uncrewed aerial systems, and related engineering, integration, maintenance and logistics support for the ADF and other aligned regional militaries.
In H1 FY26, revenue from continuing operations fell 59% to A$10.9 million, while EBITDA moved to a A$5.4 million loss from a A$1.9 million profit a year earlier. HighCom also disclosed A$5.1 million in HighCom Technology revenue, including A$3.5 million from small uncrewed aerial systems (SUAS) spare parts and A$1.6 million from sustainment services provided to the Australian Department of Defence.
So yes, HighCom is one of the more financially sensitive ASX defence stocks on the board. But it is also the kind of smaller name that can show how procurement filters down into support, sustainment and specialist protection gear.
Key market observations
Track program milestones, not just political headlines. Contract awards, manufacturing starts, delivery schedules and sustainment work often matter more than a single announcement day.
Separate pure-play exposure from diversified exposure. DroneShield and EOS are closer to concentrated defence technology themes, while Codan brings communications exposure within a broader business mix.
Watch sovereign capability themes in Australia. Austal and EOS are tied to local manufacturing, integration and Australian supply chains, which supports the broader sovereign capability theme in this group.
Pay attention to balance sheets and cash conversion. Procurement momentum can be real even when timing gets messy. HighCom's latest half is a reminder of that.
Defence headlines can look immediate. Earnings usually are not. Austal's major naval work stretches into the next decade. EOS contracts are delivered over multiple years. DroneShield's order flow appears strong, but the company still separates committed revenue from broader pipeline opportunity. HighCom shows the other side of the coin. Exposure to procurement does not automatically translate into smooth financial execution.
References to ASX-listed defence stocks are general information only, not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or CFD. These stocks can be highly volatile and are sensitive to contract timing, government policy, geopolitics, execution risk and market conditions. Backlog, pipeline and revenue expectations are not guarantees of future performance.
Three central banks are deciding rates simultaneously, Brent crude is swinging wildly around US$100 a barrel, and a war in the Middle East is rewriting the inflation outlook in real time. Whatever happens this week could set the tone for markets for the rest of 2026.
Quick facts
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announces its next cash rate decision on Tuesday, with markets now pricing a 66% chance of a second hike to 4.1%.
Some analysts have warned the Iran war could push US inflation to 3.5% by year-end and delay Fed rate cuts until September, making this week's FOMC dot plot the most closely watched in years.
Brent crude is flirting with US$100 a barrel after Iran launched what state media described as its "most intense operation since the beginning of the war."
RBA: Will Australia hike again?
The RBA raised the cash rate for the first time in two years to 3.85% at its February meeting after inflation picked up materially in the second half of 2025.
The question now is whether it moves again before even seeing the next quarterly CPI print, which isn't due until 29 April.
Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser acknowledged ahead of the meeting that policymakers face a genuinely divided decision, shaped by conflicting economic signals at home and growing instability abroad.
Financial markets currently assign around a 66% probability to another hike, with a May increase considered virtually certain regardless of what happens Monday.
The FOMC meets on March 17–18, with the policy statement scheduled for 2:00 pm ET on March 18 and Chair Jerome Powell's press conference at 2:30 pm. CME FedWatch shows a 99% probability that the Fed holds rates at 3.50% to 3.75%.
The real action is in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and dot plot. The current median dot shows one 25-basis-point cut for 2026. If it shifts to two cuts, that is dovish and bullish for risk assets. If it shifts to zero cuts or adds a rate hike into the projection, markets could react in the other direction.
Further complicating matters, Powell's term as Federal Reserve Chair expires on May 23, 2026. Kevin Warsh is the leading candidate to replace him, viewed as more hawkish on monetary policy. Any comment from Powell on this transition could move markets independently of the rate decision itself.
Bank of Japan: Further tightening could be brought forward
The BOJ meets on March 18–19, with the decision expected Thursday morning Tokyo time. The current policy rate sits at 0.75% (a 30-year high), and the January 2026 meeting produced a hold in an 8-1 vote.
Governor Ueda has categorised the March meeting as "live," noting the timeline for further tightening could be "brought forward" if Shunto spring wage negotiations yield stronger-than-expected results.
Those results are due to begin flowing in during the week, making them the critical input for the BOJ's decision. Nomura expects 2026 Shunto wage hikes to come in around 5.0%, including seniority, with base pay growth of approximately 3.4%. If results confirm that trajectory, the case for a March hike strengthens considerably.
The complication is the global backdrop. Japan imports roughly 90% of its energy needs, and oil around US$100 per barrel is pushing up import costs and threatening to add inflationary pressure. A BOJ hike into a global oil shock would be an unusually bold move.
Most market participants still lean toward a hold at this meeting, with April or July seen as the more likely timing for the next move.
Brent crude briefly touched US$119.50 per barrel earlier in the week before dropping 17% to below US$80, then rebounding toward US$95 on mixed signals from Washington about the Strait of Hormuz.
As of Thursday, Brent was back over US$100 as Iran launched fresh attacks on commercial shipping and the IEA reserve release failed to bring meaningful relief.
In the scenario where a longer conflict inflicts damage to energy infrastructure, analysts estimate CPI could rise to 3.5% by the end of 2026, with gasoline prices approaching US$5 per gallon in the second quarter.
For this week, oil acts as a macro meta-variable. Every geopolitical headline, ceasefire signal, tanker attack, reserve release, and Trump comment could move equities, bonds and currencies in real time.
US-Israeli strikes on Iran launched on 28 February sent Brent crude surging past US$119 a barrel, gold above US$5,200, and defence stocks to all-time highs.
Against that backdrop, investors are focusing on a small group of commodity-linked names that may remain sensitive to further moves in oil, LNG and gold. The key question is whether the shock proves sustained, or whether a ceasefire, shipping normalisation, or policy action removes part of the geopolitical risk premium.
1. ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM)
ExxonMobil has been one of the clearest beneficiaries of the price surge. Shares hit a record high of US$159.60 in early March and are up approximately 28% year-to-date.
The company produces 4.7 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, has a Permian Basin breakeven of around US$35/barrel, and is committed to US$20 billion in buybacks for 2026.
Wells Fargo raised its price target to US$183 from US$156 following the escalation, while broader analyst consensus sits around US$140–$144. However, XOM is already trading above many consensus targets, and disruption to its LNG partner QatarEnergy poses a near-term operational headwind.
Chevron touched a new 52-week high of US$196.76 in early March and has risen approximately 24% year-to-date.
The company's Brent breakeven for dividends and capital expenditure sits around US$50/barrel. This means that at current Oil prices above US$90, it is generating significant free cash flow.
However, Chevron has temporarily halted operations at a gas field off Israel's coast following missile activity in the region, and the stock has since pulled back more than 1% as the conflict directly affects its operations.
What to watch
Direct operational updates from Chevron's Middle East and Israeli assets.
Any further halts that could weigh on near-term production.
With Qatar having halted output after Iranian drone strikes, buyers across Asia and Europe are scrambling for alternative supply. Woodside, as one of Australia's largest LNG producers and exporters, sits outside the conflict zone and is well-positioned to benefit from rerouted demand.
Analysts caution that actual substitution takes time due to shipping and contract constraints, meaning the price uplift may be more durable than a simple spot trade. European TTF benchmark gas prices surged over 50% in a week, amplifying the margin environment for non-Middle Eastern LNG producers.
What to watch
The pace and timeline of any Qatar LNG production restart.
If QatarEnergy remains offline for weeks, Woodside could begin re-contracting European buyers at elevated spot prices.
An Australian dollar move higher could be a headwind worth tracking for USD-denominated earnings.
4. Cheniere Energy (NYSE: LNG)
Alongside Woodside, Cheniere is the most direct US beneficiary of the Qatar LNG disruption. As the largest LNG exporter in the United States, it saw intraday strength at the start of the conflict week.
US domestic energy production has buffered American consumers from the worst of the shock, but the export premium has widened as European and Asian buyers pay up for non-Gulf supply.
The trade is "geopolitically sensitive," and any resolution could reverse upside quickly. But for as long as Hormuz and Gulf gas infrastructure remain compromised, Cheniere is positioned to benefit structurally.
What to watch
Any diplomatic breakthrough that reopens Gulf shipping lanes.
Announcements of new long-term offtake contracts signed at current elevated prices.
Gold surged 5.2% in a single session on 1 March, touching US$5,246/oz, as markets sought safe-haven assets. Newmont, the world's largest gold producer, has seen its reserves effectively revalued at these prices.
It is up alongside gold's 24% year-to-date gain, and its all-in sustaining costs remain largely fixed.
However, Gold miners sold off sharply on 4 March, and Newmont fell nearly 8% in a single session as broader risk-off deleveraging hit precious metals equities.
The stock has recovered since, but volatility remains high. For longer-duration investors, analysts note that "safe" mining jurisdictions such as Canada, Australia, and Nevada are commanding fresh premiums as Middle East instability raises the value of geopolitically secure supply.
What to watch
Whether gold can hold above US$5,000/oz.
A prolonged conflict could accelerate an M&A cycle in junior gold miners.
A ceasefire or broad equity deleveraging event as the primary risk to monitor.
Lockheed Martin reached a new all-time high of US$676.70 on 3 March, up over 4% for the day. Its F-35 fighters, precision-guided munitions, THAAD systems, and HIMARS rocket artillery are central to the ongoing air campaign.
The US Department of Defence is moving to replenish munitions stockpiles, and Trump's stated ambition to raise the US defence budget to US$1.5 trillion by 2027 adds a longer-term structural tailwind beyond the immediate conflict.
Defence stocks are rising amid classic geopolitical risk pricing, but investors should note that actual contract flow takes time to translate into earnings, and valuations already reflect considerable optimism.
What to watch
The pace of US Department of Defence munitions replenishment orders.
How quickly contract wins translate into backlog growth.
Barrick is tracking gold's historic run alongside Newmont, with the stock up sharply year-to-date. It sits at a roughly US$78 billion market capitalisation and is reporting record free cash flow projections as its all-in sustaining costs remain well below current spot prices.
Like Newmont, it experienced a sharp single-session selloff of more than 8% during the broader 4 March deleveraging event, before partially recovering.
Royalty and streaming companies such as Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) are being favoured by some investors as a more inflation-protected way to access gold upside, given their lower operational cost exposure. But Barrick remains one of the world’s largest listed gold miners, with earnings that are highly sensitive to changes in the gold price
What to watch
Gold's ability to hold above US$5,000/oz.
Any Barrick moves toward junior miner acquisitions.
Energy cost inflation, as rising fuel prices could begin to squeeze miner operating margins.
