Markets head into the week beginning 16 February with a heavy mix of economic data and ongoing earnings momentum, which will feed into the broader growth picture.
- Flash PMIs (Friday): US, Eurozone, UK and Japan business surveys provide an early read on February growth momentum.
- AI beyond tech: Commentary has increasingly focused on how AI could affect business models across industries, although sector moves can reflect multiple drivers.
- Equity rotation: Recent tech performance has been mixed, and broader participation looks less consistent than a confirmed rotation.
- Earnings: With most US mega caps reported, retail and consumer names are in focus this week, and the Australian reporting season remains busy.
- Bitcoin (BTC): Pulled back after an attempted rebound and remains highly sensitive to shifts in sentiment.
Flash PMIs
Friday’s flash PMI readings across major economies could provide a timely read on business conditions and demand trends.
If services remain resilient while manufacturing stays soft, markets may interpret this as steady but uneven growth. If both weaken, growth concerns could return more quickly.
Earlier in the week, Japan GDP, UK labour data, UK CPI, Australian employment, and US trade data helped set the tone before Friday’s flash PMI releases from multiple countries.
Key dates
- Flash PMIs (US, Eurozone and UK): Friday, 20 February
Monitor
- Currency volatility around PMI releases.
- Bond yield reactions to growth surprises or disappointment.
- Sector and commodity performance shifts that may be tied to changing demand expectations.
AI disruption
Some market commentary has highlighted potential longer-term competitive implications of AI across a range of industries, although company and sector performance can still be driven by macro conditions, rates and earnings expectations.
- Financials: Some discussion has focused on whether AI tools could alter parts of wealth management and advice delivery over time, though share-price moves can reflect multiple influences.
- Logistics and freight: Some market discussion has centred on whether greater automation could affect costs and pricing dynamics over time, alongside other cyclical drivers.
- Software: Reactions remain mixed, with some companies benefiting from AI integration while others face questions about differentiation and pricing power.
This shift means the AI theme could increasingly express itself through relative performance and dispersion, rather than a broad “risk-on” bid.
Monitor
- Earnings guidance that references automation, AI investment, or AI-related competitive pressure.
- Increased dispersion between sectors and within sectors.
- Larger reactions to forward-looking commentary rather than headline beats or misses.
Equity rotation
The rebound in technology shares seen earlier last week has lost momentum. Rather than clear risk-off conditions, the market is showing mixed participation.
Financials, industrials and defensive sectors have attracted flows at times, but not consistently enough to confirm a durable rotation.
Participation remains uneven, and evidence of a more consistent pattern of money flow is still limited at this stage.
Monitor
- Sustained relative strength in non-tech sectors.
- Yield movements and their influence on growth-sensitive equities
- Broader sector participation versus narrow tech leadership
Earnings focus
As the US earnings season moves towards its backend, attention turns toward retail names this week.
Retail results can provide signals about consumer strength, discretionary spending trends and margin resilience, particularly amid mixed perceptions about the state of the economy.
In Australia, reporting season continues, supporting stock-specific volatility across the ASX.
Monitor
- Retail margin commentary and discounting trends
- Consumer demand outlook statements and guidance tone
- Large single-stock moves even when index direction is muted
Bitcoin sentiment-sensitive
Bitcoin has traded lower over recent sessions and remains highly volatile. A move back toward the 5 February low is possible, but prices can change quickly in either direction.
Some market participants view Bitcoin as one indicator of speculative sentiment, although any broader “risk appetite” read-through is uncertain and can be influenced by multiple drivers across crypto markets.
Key economic events
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