Market news & insights

Expected earnings date: Wednesday, 28 January 2026 (US, after market close) / early Thursday, 29 January 2026 (AEDT)

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Key areas in focus

Advertising (Family of Apps)

Advertising remains Meta’s dominant revenue driver. AI-driven ad targeting, Reels monetisation, and engagement efficiency can be important contributors to revenue growth and may support advertiser outcomes, noting results can vary by advertiser, format, and market conditions.

User engagement and monetisation

Engagement trends across Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Threads remain closely watched as indicators that can influence monetisation assumptions and medium-term expectations.

Artificial intelligence

Meta views AI as a foundation for content discovery, advertising performance, and the development of generative tools. Markets may continue to evaluate whether AI-driven gains offset the level of infrastructure and data centre investment required to support these projects.

Reality Labs

Reality Labs remains loss-making. Management continues to frame AR/VR and metaverse-related platforms as long-term strategic investments, while acknowledging continued operating losses and a drag on earnings performance.

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What happened last quarter

Meta’s most recent quarterly update highlighted strong revenue growth alongside ongoing investment themes. 

The company’s reported (GAAP) net income and EPS reflected a one-time, non-cash income tax charge disclosed in the earnings materials, while management commentary also emphasised cost discipline and investment priorities.

Operating margins expanded year-on-year, despite elevated AI-related investment.

Last earnings key highlights

• Revenue: US$51.24 billion 
• Earnings per share (EPS): US$1.05 (GAAP) 
• Advertising revenue: US$50.08 billion 
• Operating margin: 40% 
• Reality Labs operating loss: about US$4.43 billion 

How the market reacted last time

Meta shares fell in after-hours trading after the release. Commentary at the time highlighted strong top-line outcomes, alongside investor focus on the outlook for spending and the pace of AI and infrastructure investment.

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What’s expected this quarter

Bloomberg consensus points to continued year-on-year revenue growth, led by advertising, with operating margins expected to remain elevated despite ongoing AI and infrastructure expenditure.

Bloomberg consensus reference points (January 2026)

• Revenue: about US$41 to US$43 billion 
• EPS: about US$4.80 to US$5.10 (adjusted) 
• Advertising growth: high-teens year on year (YoY) 
• Operating margin: expected to remain above 40% 
• Capital expenditure (capex): elevated, reflecting AI and data centre investment 

*All above points observed as of 23 January 2026.

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Expectations

Sentiment around Meta Platforms may be sensitive to any disappointment around advertising demand, margin sustainability, or the scale of ongoing investment in AI and Reality Labs.

Recent price action suggests that some market participants appear to be pricing in a relatively constructive earnings outcome, which can increase sensitivity to negative surprises.

Listed options were pricing an indicative move of around ±3% based on near-dated options expiring after 28 January and an at-the-money options-implied ‘expected move’ estimate.

Implied volatility was about 31% annualised into the event, as observed on Barchart at 11:00 am AEDT on 23 January 2026.

These are market-implied estimates and may change. Actual post-earnings moves can be larger or smaller.

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What this means for Australian traders

Meta’s earnings may influence near-term sentiment across US technology indices, particularly the Nasdaq, with potential spillover into broader global equity risk appetite and index-linked products traded during the Asia session after the release, which can be volatile and unpredictable following earnings events.

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Important risk note

Immediately after the US close and into the early Asia session, Nasdaq 100 (NDX) futures and related CFD pricing can reflect thinner liquidity, wider spreads, and sharper repricing around new information. 

Such an environment can increase gap risk and execution uncertainty relative to regular-hours conditions.

Australian CPI may test market pricing for a February RBA move, while the Federal Reserve narrative will be followed closely, even though a pause is widely expected. It is also a busy US earnings week, with mega-cap names headlining, and Gold remains a key market focus.

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• Australia CPI: Australian CPI is the key domestic release, with markets pricing the risk of a February RBA rate increase.
• US Federal Reserve: The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady, with attention on whether a potential June rate cut remains intact.
• US mega-cap tech earnings: Earnings from large-cap technology names may test whether current equity valuations remain supported.
• Gold: Gold continues to trade near record highs.

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Australia

• Australia CPI (Q4): Wednesday, 28 January

Stronger-than-expected jobs report this week lifted market expectations for further policy tightening. 

According to the ASX RBA Rate Tracker, market-implied pricing for a February rate increase has risen to above 60%.

Market impact

• AUD crosses may respond to any shift in rate expectations
• Rate-sensitive equity sectors could see follow-through moves

Federal Reserve

• FOMC rate decision: Wednesday, 28 January (US) | 29 January (AEDT)

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to announce no change in rates after its two-day meeting. 

Market focus will centre on communication around inflation progress, and whether market-implied pricing for a potential June rate cut is reinforced or challenged.

Market impact

• USD direction may respond to any shift in policy tone across multiple asset classes
• US Treasury yields, especially at the front end, may react to changes in rate expectations

US mega-cap earnings

• Boeing: 27 January (US time) | 28 January AEDT
• Microsoft: 28 January (US time, after market close) | 29 January AEDT
• Meta Platforms: 28 January (US time, after market close) | 29 January AEDT
• Tesla: 28 January (US time, after market close) | 29 January AEDT
• Caterpillar: 29 January (US time, before market open)/30 January AEDT
• Apple: 29 January (US time, after market close) | 30 January AEDT

Earnings from US mega-cap technology companies are likely to dominate headlines, but next week is also one of the busiest periods so far this earnings season across multiple sectors. 

Markets are likely to focus on guidance, margins and capital expenditure as much as the headline results.

Market impact

• Nasdaq leadership breadth may respond to guidance consistency
• With equity markets remaining generally strong, current valuations will again be tested
• Overall performance across sectors will be viewed as a lens into the state of the econ

(Note: Dates may be subject to change)

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Gold

At the US close on 22 January 2026, COMEX gold futures traded around US$4,920/oz, with the psychologically important 5,000 level in view. 

Sensitivity to Treasury yields and the USD, policy uncertainty, and geopolitical developments may influence price action either way.

Market impact

• Gold prices can remain sensitive to changes in Treasury yields, USD movements and geopolitical developments.
• Movements around record levels can be volatile and unpredictable, and may reverse quickly.

Final takeaways

• If Australian CPI suggests inflation persistence, market pricing may continue to lean toward a February RBA move
• If the Fed narrative is less dovish than expected, current assumptions may be challenged
• If mega-cap earnings reinforce valuation confidence, leadership from these stocks may help support broader equity levels
• If gold holds near record highs, USD weakness and hedging demand may remain key drivers

FX markets face a data-heavy period in the coming days, led by US inflation releases and late-week flash purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs). 

Regional data and central bank expectations in Japan, Europe, and Australia may influence cross-currency moves, particularly if outcomes differ from expectations.

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Quick facts:

• US Personal Income and Outlays is a key inflation release this week, closely watched by policymakers.
• Flash PMIs across the US, Eurozone, Germany, and the UK offer a timely read on growth momentum.
• Australian data, including labour market indicators, remains important for AUD sensitivity and Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) expectations.
• FX markets can be sensitive when data outcomes differ from expectations.

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USDJPY

What to watch

US attention centres on inflation and activity data, particularly the Personal Income and Outlays report and the PCE price index, alongside late-week flash manufacturing and services PMIs.

These releases are closely followed by markets for their potential influence on rate expectations and USD sensitivity.

On the JPY side, Bank of Japan (BoJ) developments remain relevant, although US data has often been a key driver of recent moves.

Key releases and events

• Fri 23 Jan (US): US Personal Income and Outlays (including PCE inflation)
• Fri 23 Jan (US): Manufacturing and services PMI

Technical snapshot

USDJPY continues to trade above its rising 200-day moving average, with recent daily candles showing greater overlap and smaller ranges over recent weeks.

• Price has remained above the long-term average since late September, with higher swing lows still visible.
• Momentum appears to have moderated since early January, consistent with slowing follow-through rather than reversal.
• Daily ranges have narrowed compared with the October to November advance, again suggesting short-term consolidation.

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EURUSD

What to watch

Eurozone flash PMIs and Germany producer price index (PPI) data provide insights into regional growth momentum and whether inflation pressures are building.

While these releases may influence immediate EUR sentiment, EURUSD continues to trade in the broader context of US data outcomes and global risk conditions.

Key releases and events

• Thu 22 Jan: Germany Producer Price Index (PPI)
• Fri 23 Jan: Eurozone / Germany flash PMIs (manufacturing and services)

Technical snapshot

EURUSD is trading above its rising 200-day moving average (daily chart), although price action since July suggests the market has become more range-bound rather than directional, following the advances in the first half of 2025.

• The broader upward structure has been in place since the beginning of 2025, although progress higher has stalled over recent months.
• Momentum readings have drifted toward neutral since late November, consistent with balanced conditions.
• Average daily range has continued to compress since July, consistent with a flattening of the trend.

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GBPAUD

What to watch

Australian labour market data remains central for AUD sensitivity and RBA expectations. UK CPI is also due this week, which may contribute to cross volatility, particularly if it shifts expectations around the UK rates outlook.

Late-week PMI releases can also influence short-term direction, especially where they add to or challenge the current growth narrative.

Key releases and events

• Wed 21 Jan: UK CPI
• Thu 22 Jan: Australia Labour Force, Australia (December 2025)
• Fri 23 Jan: UK flash PMIs (manufacturing and services)

Technical snapshot

• GBPAUD continues to trade below its long-term moving average, with price action remaining in a downside direction since late November.
• The long-term average flattened through September and has turned lower since October, with the price remaining below and showing recent signs of a greater gap between the price and the moving average.
• Momentum has remained below neutral over recent months, with any retracements to the upside showing limited follow-through.
• Daily ranges have narrowed compared with earlier swings, suggesting a consistent but controlled drop in price rather than impulsive movement.

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Bottom line

With multiple data releases due across key regions, FX markets may remain sensitive to outcomes that differ from expectations.

Existing technical conditions suggest that reactions may vary by pair, with some markets consolidating while others could retain recent directional characteristics.

US and European market attention this week is centred on the US Personal Income and Outlays report (which includes the PCE price index), late-week flash PMI releases, and a continued ramp-up in the US earnings season. 

Alongside key data, geopolitical developments, including renewed discussion around Greenland and tariff threats, remain part of the broader risk backdrop.

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Quick facts:

• US PCE inflation: Closely watched by policymakers as an important inflation measure (released within the Personal Income and Outlays report).
• Flash PMIs: US, Eurozone, Germany, and the UK are due late week, offering a read on growth momentum.
• US earnings: Large-cap and index-heavy companies shaping sentiment at elevated index levels.
• Geopolitical headlines: Greenland and proposed tariff measures add a layer of uncertainty to broader risk sentiment.
• Equity indices: Trading at elevated levels, which may increase sensitivity to data and earnings surprises.

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United States

What to watch

US markets reopen after the Juneteenth holiday, with the US data calendar featuring the PCE price index and core PCE measures. Outcomes that differ from expectations can influence interest-rate expectations and near-term risk sentiment.

Later in the week, flash PMIs offer a more current snapshot of activity across manufacturing and services. US earnings remain a key driver of sentiment, and with indices at elevated levels, valuation and guidance narratives may be tested as results are released.

Key releases and events

• Thu 22 Jan (US): BEA GDP release — Q3 2025 (Updated Estimate)
• Thu 22 Jan (US): BEA Personal Income and Outlays (Oct & Nov 2025) — includes PCE price index and core PCE
• Fri 23 Jan (US): S&P Global flash PMIs (manufacturing and services)
• Throughout the week: US earnings season continues

How markets may respond

• Equities: Indices have been trading at elevated levels. As of 10:30am AEDT, 20 January 2026, the S&P 500 was within ~50 points of its record high.
• USD: PCE results that differ from expectations can contribute to volatility in FX and USD-linked assets, while PMI data can influence shorter-term momentum. 
• Earnings: In a market trading at elevated levels, earnings results and forward guidance can generate volatility even without large headline misses. Forward guidance and margin commentary are likely to be closely watched.

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UK and eurozone

What to watch

In the UK, CPI and labour market data can influence rate expectations and perceptions of growth momentum. In Germany, producer price data offers insight into pipeline inflation pressures. Flash PMIs across the Eurozone, Germany, and the UK complete the week’s calendar and may influence near-term growth assessments.

Key releases and events

Eurozone and Germany

• Thu 22 Jan: Germany PPI
• Fri 23 Jan: Eurozone flash manufacturing PMI (with services PMI)
• Fri 23 Jan: Germany flash manufacturing PMI

United Kingdom

• Wed 21 Jan: UK CPI
• Thu 22 Jan: UK labour market report
• Fri 23 Jan: UK flash manufacturing PMI (with services PMI)

How markets may respond

• DAX: The German index has been trading at elevated levels. PMI and PPI outcomes may influence cyclical sectors, notably industrials and exporters.
• FTSE 100 and GBP: UK CPI and labour market data can affect rate expectations and GBP sensitivity, while PMI outcomes may influence sector-level performance within the index.
• EUR: Euro moves may reflect PMI momentum and inflation signals, though direction can still be heavily influenced by US outcomes and global risk sentiment. 

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Geopolitics

Reporting has focused on renewed discussion around Greenland and associated tariff threats. Reporting also outlines tariff rates and potential escalation timelines, though details and implementation remain subject to change, and the situation is fluid.

Market reaction has been limited so far. If rhetoric escalates, markets could see intermittent volatility across equities, commodities, and FX. safe-haven moves (including in gold) are possible, though reactions can be uneven and may reverse.

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US and Europe calendar summary

• Wed 21 Jan: UK CPI
• Thu 22 Jan (US) / Fri 23 Jan(AEDT): 
  
  • US GDP (Q3 2025 updated estimate)
  • US Personal Income and Outlays (Oct/Nov, includes PCE) 
  • UK labour market report
• Fri 23 Jan: Flash PMIs (US, Eurozone, Germany, UK)

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Bottom line

• The Personal Income and Outlays report (including PCE inflation measures) is one of the key US macro events this week and may influence rate expectations if outcomes differ materially from expectations.
• With equity indices trading at elevated levels, markets may be more sensitive to negative surprises and guidance downgrades than to confirmatory data.
• European releases — particularly UK CPI and the flash PMIs — remain important locally but may still trade in the context of US outcomes and broader risk sentiment.
• Geopolitical developments around Greenland and tariffs remain a secondary but persistent source of uncertainty.

Asia-Pacific markets head into this week focused on China’s growth data, potential JPY volatility with a Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting week, and Australia's labour force report and commodity prices. Geopolitical events also remain in focus globally, and the US earnings season’s progression may indirectly influence sentiment.

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Quick facts:

• China: Q4 GDP and December industrial production data will be read as a test of whether growth is stabilising or simply slowing more gradually.
• Japan: The BoJ meets 22–23 January, and Japan CPI (Dec) is due on 23 January, keeping USD/JPY and rates in focus.
• Australia: Labour Force (Dec) is the key local catalyst, alongside whether metal prices continue to support the materials sector.

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China

What to watch:

China’s focus shifts to hard activity data, with Q4 GDP and December activity indicators offering a read on growth momentum into 2026. Markets are increasingly focused on whether recent policy support is translating into clearer traction in the real economy.

Key releases:

• Mon 19 Jan: Q4 GDP, December industrial production (primary). Retail sales and fixed asset investment (secondary).

How markets may respond:

• Growth-sensitive sectors in Chinese equities may react if the data reinforces that domestic demand remains soft, especially if headline GDP diverges from expectations.
• Australian assets may respond to GDP and industrial output outcomes, with implications for materials stocks. The data may also influence AUD sentiment following recent consolidation.

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Japan

With the BoJ meeting later in the week, markets may see pre-decision volatility as positioning shifts around how hawkish the BoJ narrative may be. While consensus expectations often lean toward no change, the statement and press conference will be watched closely for any change in tone.

Key events:

• Fri 23 Jan: Bank of Japan rate decision and press conference (high sensitivity)
• Fri 23 Jan: Japan CPI (Dec) (medium sensitivity)
• Thu 22 Jan: Trade statistics — first 20 days of Dec (provisional) (low sensitivity)

How markets may respond:

• USD/JPY: Often acts as a fast channel for repricing Japan risk during BoJ weeks, particularly if guidance shifts expectations for the next move.
• Nikkei 225: Japanese equities can remain responsive to FX stability, particularly across exporter-heavy sectors. All-time high levels of 54000 will be watched as a key level.
  

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Australia

Australia’s week is dominated by the employment data, with external influences from China’s data and broader global risk conditions also in view. Markets will likely focus on the balance between employment growth and participation and what it implies for Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) expectations.

Key release:

• Thu 22 Jan: Labour force, Australia (Dec) (high sensitivity)

How markets may respond:

• ASX 200: Domestic cyclicals can react to the rates takeaway more than the headline jobs number. After the material-driven move back over 8800, this week will be key in determining whether a test of the psychologically important 9000 is on the cards.
• AUD/USD: Rate expectations can shift quickly. A stronger-than-expected jobs result could support the AUD, while a weaker print (or a rise in unemployment) could weigh on it.
  

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Asia-Pacific calendar summary (AEDT)

• Mon 19 Jan: China GDP (Q4), industrial production and retail sales
• Tue 20 Jan: China Loan Prime Rate (1Y/5Y) (Jan)
• Thu 22 Jan: Australia employment (Dec); Japan trade statistics — first 20 days of Dec (provisional)
• Fri 23 Jan: BoJ rate decision and press conference; Japan CPI (Dec). PMI manufacturing in Australia and Japan.

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Bottom line

Asia-Pacific markets enter the week with China’s growth data setting the regional tone, Japan facing heightened FX sensitivity into a BoJ meeting, and Australia focused on labour-market signals alongside commodity price direction.

Chinese GDP and industrial production are a test of whether activity is stabilising, with implications for regional risk appetite, materials pricing and the AUD. 

In Japan, any shift in BoJ communication could drive USD/JPY volatility and spill into broader equity sentiment. For Australia, local employment data and external influences, particularly China and global risk conditions, are likely to shape short-term expectations across rates, equities and currency markets.

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Markets are navigating a familiar mix of macro and event risk with China growth signals, US inflation updates, central-bank guidance and earnings that will help confirm whether the growth narrative is broadening or narrowing.

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At a glance

• China: Q4 GDP + December activity + PBOC decision
• US: PCE inflation (date per current BEA schedule)
• Japan: BOJ decision (JPY/carry sensitivity)
• Earnings: tech, industrials, energy, materials in focus
• Gold: near record highs (yields/USD/geopolitics watch)

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Geopolitics remain fluid. Any escalation could shift risk sentiment quickly and produce price action that diverges from current baselines.

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China

• China Q4 GDP: Monday, 19 January at 1:00 pm (AEDT)
• Retail sales: Monday, 19 January at 1:00 pm (AEDT)
• PBOC policy decision: Monday, 19 January at 12.30 pm (AEDT)

China’s Q4 GDP and December activity data, together with the PBOC decision, will shape expectations for China's growth momentum and the durability of policy support.

Market impact

• Commodity-linked FX: AUD and NZD may react if growth expectations or the policy tone shifts.
• Equities: The Shanghai Composite, Hang Seng and ASX 200 could respond to any change in how investors view demand and stimulus traction.
• Commodities: Industrial metals and oil may move on any reassessment of China-linked demand.

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US

• PCE Inflation: Friday, 23 January at 2:00 am (AEDT)
• PSI:  Friday, 23 January at 2:00 am (AEDT)
• S&P Flash (PMI): Saturday, 24 January at 1:45 am (AEDT)
• Netflix: Tuesday, 20 January 2026 at 8:00 am (AEDT)

The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge and a key input for rate expectations and (by extension) Treasury yields, the USD, and growth stocks. Markets are likely to focus on whether the reading changes the inflation path that is currently priced, rather than simply matching consensus.

Market impact

• USD: May move if rate expectations shift, particularly against JPY and EUR.
• US equities: Growth and small caps, including the Nasdaq and Russell 2000, may be sensitive if the data or interpretation challenge the current rate outlook.
• Gold futures: May be influenced indirectly via moves in Treasury yields and the USD.

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Japan

Key reports

• Inflation: Friday, 23 January at 10:30 am (AEDT)
• Bank of Japan (BoJ) Interest Rate Meeting: Friday, 23 January at ~2:00 pm (AEDT)

Markets will focus on what the BOJ signals about inflation, wages and the policy path. A shift in tone can move JPY quickly and flow through to broader risk via carry positioning.

Market impact:

• JPY/USD pairs and crosses: Pairs are sensitive to any guidance change and the USD/JPY has broken above 158, but the move could reverse if the BOJ strikes a more hawkish tone.
• Japan equities and global sentiment: Could react if the dynamics shift.
• Broader risk assets: May be influenced via moves in the USD and volatility conditions.

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US earnings

• Netflix: Tuesday, 20 January 2026 at 8:00 am (AEDT)

• Johnson & Johnson: Wednesday, 21 January at 10:20 pm (AEDT)
• Intel Corporation: Thursday, 22 January at 8:00 am (AEDT)

A busy week of US earnings is expected with large-cap names across multiple sectors reporting. Early results and, importantly, forward guidance may help clarify whether growth is broadening or becoming more selective.

With the S&P 500 close to the psychological 7,000 level, earnings could be a catalyst for a fresh test of highs or a pullback if guidance disappoints.

Market impact

• Upside scenario: Results that exceed expectations and are supported by steady guidance could support sector and broader market sentiment.
• Downside scenario: Cautious guidance, particularly on margins and capex, could weigh on individual names and spill into broader indices if it becomes a repeated message.
• Read-through: Early reporters in each sector may influence expectations for related stocks, especially where peers have not yet provided updated guidance.
• Bottom line: This is a week where the market may trade the forward picture more than the rear-view numbers. The key is whether guidance supports the idea of broad, durable growth, or whether it points to a more selective backdrop as 2026 unfolds.

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Gold

Continued strength in gold may support gold equities and gold-linked ETFs relative to the broader market but geopolitical developments and policy uncertainty may influence demand for defensive assets.

A sustained reversal in gold could be interpreted by some market participants as a sign of improved risk confidence. The driver set matters, especially whether the move is led by yields, USD strength, or a fade in event risk.

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