March’s foreign exchange (FX) markets could be shaped by several high-impact releases clustered around the first half of the month. China PMIs, Australia GDP, Japan GDP and the Federal Reserve’s March meeting could all influence FX sentiment as the month progresses.

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Quick facts

• US rate expectations remain stable, with CME FedWatch implying a greater than 85% probability of no rate change at the March FOMC meeting.
• China PMIs, CPI/PPI and trade data will help shape early-month regional risk tone.
• Australia's GDP, RBA decision, labour force data and CPI create a concentrated domestic event window for AUD.
• Japan GDP and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy meeting may influence domestic yield repricing and JPY volatility.
• Euro area CPI, industrial production and the ECB Monetary Policy Decision remain key for EUR stability.

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US dollar (USD)

Key events

• Nonfarm Payrolls: 12:30 am, 7 March (AEDT)
• Consumer Price Index (CPI): 11:30 pm, 11 March (AEDT)
• Retail Sales: 11:30 pm, 17 March (AEDT)
• Federal Reserve policy decision: 5:00 am, 19 March (AEDT)
• Federal Reserve press conference: 5:30 am, 19 March (AEDT)

What to watch

The USD remains primarily driven by inflation and labour data and their implications for Federal Reserve pricing.

CME FedWatch pricing indicates that markets are assigning a greater than 85% probability of no rate change at the March FOMC meeting. This suggests positioning is currently anchored around a pause, increasing sensitivity to any inflation surprise that could shift expectations.

With a pause largely priced in, USD direction may hinge more on inflation trajectory and longer-term policy expectations than the decision itself. Firmer CPI or resilient labour data could reinforce yield support.

Key chart: US dollar index (DXY) weekly chart

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Euro (EUR)

Key events

• Euro area CPI (flash estimate): 10:00 pm, 3 March (AEDT)
• Euro area industrial production: 9:00 pm, 13 March (AEDT)
• ECB Monetary Policy Decision: 12:15 am, 20 March (AEDT)
• ECB press conference: 12:45 am, 20 March (AEDT)
• Eurozone flash PMI: 8:00 pm, 24 March (AEDT)

What to watch

EUR direction remains linked to inflation persistence and whether growth data stabilise expectations around ECB policy.

Sticky inflation or improved activity data could limit easing expectations and support the EUR. Softer inflation and weaker production data may renew downside pressure, particularly if US data remain firm.

EUR/USD daily structure shows consolidation following an upside extension earlier in the year. Short-term momentum has moderated, with price holding above longer-term support levels.

Key chart: EUR/USD daily chart

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Japanese yen (JPY)

Key events

• Japan GDP (Q4 2025, 2nd estimate): 10:50 am, 10 March (AEDT)
• Bank of Japan policy meeting: 18–19 March (AEDT)
• BOJ statement on monetary policy: 19 March (AEDT) 

What to watch

JPY remains sensitive to domestic growth data and Bank of Japan policy decisions. Yield expectations and policy normalisation signals continue to influence USD/JPY and cross-JPY volatility.

The BOJ policy meeting and subsequent communication may influence short-term volatility and longer-term rate expectations, and by extension JPY sentiment.

Stronger GDP or policy signals reinforcing normalisation could support JPY via domestic yield adjustments. More cautious messaging may maintain yield differentials in favour of USD and AUD.

Key chart: AUD/JPY weekly chart

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Australian dollar (AUD)

Key events

• Australia GDP: 11:30 am, 4 March (AEDT)
• RBA Monetary Policy Decision: 2:30 pm, 17 March (AEDT)
• Labour Force Survey: 11:30 am, 19 March (AEDT)
• Consumer Price Index (CPI): 11:30 am, 25 March (AEDT) 

What to watch

AUD faces a domestic calendar centred around the 16–17 March RBA meeting. Growth, labour and inflation releases cluster within a three-week window, increasing the potential for volatility.

Stronger GDP or persistent inflation could reinforce policy caution and support AUD. Softer labour or CPI outcomes may weigh on rate expectations and pressure AUD, particularly against USD and JPY. 

Chinese data early in the month may also influence regional sentiment and commodity-linked currencies such as AUD.

March opens with early-month Chinese activity and inflation data, followed by an influx of market-relevant data reports from Japan, while the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meets mid-month, with markets currently pricing a pause in the policy rate

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China

China’s March outlook is front-loaded with activity, inflation and trade releases that can quickly set the regional risk tone. Market reaction may hinge on policy interpretation and liquidity conditions as much as it does on any data surprises themselves.

Key dates

• China Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMI: 12:30 pm, 2 March (AEDT)
• China Caixin PMI: 5 March (AEDT)
• China CPI: 12:30 pm, 9 March (AEDT)
• China PPI: 12:30 pm, 9 March (AEDT)
• China trade balance: 10 March (AEDT)

Market relevance

China's March profile is front-loaded and data-driven, with the first 10 days likely to be a focus for broader regional sentiment. 

The PMI data could provide an early signal on industrial and services momentum, while the CPI could give a read on domestic demand and pricing pressure.

With the Shanghai Composite still trading near levels seen in the mid-2010s, market reactions may depend on policy interpretation and liquidity conditions as much as they do on headline surprises.

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Japan

Japan's month centres on growth confirmation followed by a policy signal that may recalibrate the yen’s momentum.

Key dates

• Japan PMI: 11:30 am, 2 March (AEDT)
• Japan preliminary Q4 GDP: 10:50 am, 10 March (AEDT)
• BOJ policy decision: 19 March (AEDT)

Market relevance

The Nikkei 225 is currently near all-time highs, which may increase sensitivity to policy tone. 

GDP could help validate growth sustainability and domestic demand trends, while BOJ guidance could shape the yield curve and rate expectations. 

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Australia

Australia’s March calendar centres on growth, policy and inflation signals that could shape expectations for the domestic outlook and AUD. If policy holds steady, focus is likely to shift toward how durable growth is and how sticky inflation remains.

Key dates

• Australia GDP (National Accounts): 11:30 am, 4 March (AEDT)
• RBA monetary policy decision: 2:30 pm, 17 March (AEDT)
• Australia labour force: 11:30 am, 19 March (AEDT)
• Australia CPI: 11:30 am, 25 March (AEDT)

Market relevance

While the RBA decision shapes rate path expectations and forward guidance, Labour data informs the wage and consumption outlook, and CPI confirms or challenges the inflation trajectory. 

The ASX 200 is trading near record highs, and AUD has demonstrated multi-year relative strength versus several major crosses. If the RBA pauses, focus may shift from rate direction to growth durability and inflation persistence. 

Markets move into the week ahead with inflation data across Australia and Japan, alongside elevated geopolitical tensions that continue to influence energy prices and broader risk sentiment.  

• Australia Consumer Price Index (CPI): Inflation data may influence the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy path, with the Australian dollar (AUD) and local yields sensitive to any surprise. 

• Japan data cluster: Tokyo CPI (preliminary) plus industrial production and retail sales provide an inflation-and-activity pulse that could shape Bank of Japan (BoJ) normalisation expectations. 

• Eurozone & Germany CPI: Flash inflation readings will test the disinflation narrative and influence ECB rate-cut timing expectations. 

• Oil and geopolitics: Brent crude has posted its highest close in around six months amid renewed Middle East tensions, reinforcing energy-driven inflation risk. 

Australia CPI: RBA expectations to change? 

Australia’s upcoming CPI release will be closely watched for signals on whether inflation is stabilising or proving more persistent than expected. 

A stronger-than-expected print could be associated with higher yields and a firmer AUD as rate expectations adjust. A softer outcome could support expectations for a steadier policy stance. 

Key dates 

• Inflation Rate (MoM): 11:30 am Wednesday, 25 February (AEDT) 

• CPI: 11:30 am Wednesday, 25 February (AEDT) 

Monitor 

• AUD volatility around the release. 

• Local bond yield reactions. 

• Interest rate pricing shifts. 

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Japan inflation and growth data 

Japan’s late-week releases combine Tokyo CPI (preliminary) with industrial production and retail sales, offering a broader read on price pressures and domestic demand. 

Tokyo CPI is often watched as a timely signal for national inflation dynamics and BoJ debate. Industrial output and retail spending add context on activity.  

Surprises across this cluster can drive sharp moves in the JPY, particularly if results shift perceptions around the pace and persistence of BoJ normalisation. 

Key dates 

• Tokyo CPI: 10:30 am Friday, 27 February (AEDT) 

• Industrial Production: 10:50 am Friday, 27 February (AEDT) 

• Retail Sales: 10:50 am Friday, 27 February (AEDT) 

Monitor 

• JPY sensitivity to inflation surprises 

• Bond yield moves in response to activity data 

• Equity reactions if growth momentum expectations shift 

Energy and safe-haven flows 

Oil prices have climbed to their highest close in around six months amid renewed Middle East tensions.  

Recent reporting on heightened regional military activity and shipping-risk headlines near the Strait of Hormuz has reinforced energy security as a market focus. The Strait of Hormuz remains a widely watched chokepoint for global energy flows. 

Higher oil prices can feed into inflation expectations and influence bond yields. At the same time, geopolitical uncertainty can support the USD through safe-haven demand and relative rate positioning. 

Monitor 

• Brent crude price levels 

• USD strength versus major currencies 

• Yield movements as inflation risk premiums adjust 

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Eurozone and Germany inflation 

Flash inflation readings from Germany and the broader eurozone (HICP) will test whether the region’s disinflation trend remains intact. 

Germany’s release can influence expectations ahead of the aggregated eurozone figure. If core inflation proves sticky, expectations around the timing and pace of potential European Central Bank easing could shift. 

Key dates 

• Germany Inflation Rate: 12:00 am Saturday, 28 February (AEDT) 

Monitor 

• EUR volatility around inflation releases 

• European sovereign bond yields 

• Rate-cut probability adjustments 

Key economic events 

2026 is not giving investors much breathing room. It seems markets may have largely moved past the idea that rate cuts are just around the corner and into a year where inflation may prove harder to control than many expected.

Goods inflation has picked up, while services inflation remains relatively sticky due to ongoing labour cost pressures. Housing costs, particularly rents, also remain a key source of inflation pressure. 

The RBA is trying to stay credible on inflation without pushing the economy too far the other way.

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Key data

CPI is still around 3.8 per cent (above target), wages are still rising at about 0.8 per cent over the quarter, and unemployment is around 4.1 per cent.

Based on market-implied pricing, rate hikes are not expected soon, so the way the RBA explains its decision can matter almost as much as the decision itself. If the tone shifts expectations, those expectations can move markets.

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What this playbook covers

This is a playbook for RBA-heavy weeks in 2026. It covers what to watch across sectors, lists the key triggers, and explains which indicators may shift sentiment.

1. Banks and financials: how RBA decisions flow through to lending and borrowers

Banks are where the RBA shows up fastest in the Australian economy. Rates can hit borrowers quickly and feed into funding costs and sentiment.

In tighter phases, margins can improve at first, but that can flip if funding costs rise faster, or if credit quality starts to weaken. The balance between those forces is what matters most.

If banks rally into an RBA decision week, it may mean the market thinks higher for longer supports earnings. If they sell off, it may mean the market thinks higher for longer hurts borrowers. You can get two different readings from the same headline.

What to watch

• The yield curve shape: A steeper curve can help margins, while an inverted curve can signal growth stress.
• Deposit competition: It can quietly squeeze margins even when headline rates look supportive.
• RBA wording on financial stability, household buffers, and resilience. Small phrases can shift the risk story.

Potential trigger

If the RBA sounds more hawkish than expected, banks may react early as markets reassess growth and credit risk expectations. The first move can sometimes set the tone for the session.

Key risks

• Funding costs rising faster than loan yields: May point to margin pressure.
• Clear tightening in credit conditions: Rising arrears or refinancing stress can change the narrative quickly.
  
  

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2. Consumer discretionary and retail: where higher rates hit household spending

When policy is tight, consumer discretionary becomes a live test of household resilience. This is where higher everyday costs often show up fastest.

Big calls about the consumer can look obvious until the data stops backing them up. When that happens, the narrative can shift quickly.

What to watch

• Wages versus inflation: The real income push or drag.
• Early labour signals: Hours worked can soften before unemployment rises.
• Reporting season clues: Discounting, cost pass-through, and margin pressure can indicate how stretched demand really is.

Potential trigger

If the tone from the RBA  is more hawkish than expected, the sector may be sensitive to rate expectations. Any initial move may not persist, and subsequent price action can depend on incoming data and positioning

Key risks

• A fast turn in the labour market.
• New cost-of-living shocks, especially energy or housing, that hit spending quickly.

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3. Resources: what to watch when tariffs, geopolitics, and policy shift

Resources can act as a read on global growth, but currency moves and central bank tone can change how that story lands in Australia.

In 2026, tariffs and geopolitics could also create sharper headline moves than usual, so gap risk can sit on top of the normal cycle.

The RBA still matters through two channels: the Australian dollar and overall risk appetite. Both can reprice the sector quickly, even when commodity prices have not moved much.

What to watch

• The global growth pulse: Industrial demand expectations and China-linked signals.
• The Australian dollar: The post-decision move can become a second driver for the sector.
• Sector leadership: How resources trade versus the broader market can signal the current regime.

Potential trigger

If the RBA tone turns more restrictive while global growth stays stable, resources may hold up better than other parts of the market. Strong cash flows can matter more, and the real asset angle can attract buyers.

Key risks

• In a real stress event, correlations can jump, and defensive positioning can fail.
• If policy tightens into a growth scare, the cycle can take over, and the sector can fade quickly.

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4. Defensives, staples, and quality healthcare

Defensives are meant to be the calmer corner of the market when everything else feels messy. In 2026, they still have one big weakness: discount rates.

Quality defensives can draw inflows when growth looks shaky, but some defensive growth stocks still trade like long-duration assets. They can be hit when yields rise, even if the business looks solid. That means earnings may be steady while valuations still move around.

What to watch

• Relative strength: How defensives perform during RBA weeks versus the broader market.
• Guidance language: Comments on cost pressure, pricing power, and whether volumes are holding up.
• Yield behaviour: Rising yields can overpower the quality bid and push multiples down.

Potential trigger

If the RBA sounds hawkish and cyclicals start to wobble, defensives can attract relative inflows, but that can depend on yields staying contained. If yields rise sharply, long-duration defensives can still de-rate.

Key risks

• Cost inflation that squeezes margins and weakens the defensive story.

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5. Hard assets, gold, and gold equities

In 2026, hard assets may be less about the simple inflation-hedge story and more about tail risk and policy uncertainty.

When confidence weakens, hard assets often receive more attention. They are not driven by one factor, and gold can still fall if the main drivers run against it.

What to watch

• Real yield direction: Shapes the opportunity cost of holding gold.
• US dollar direction: A major pricing channel for gold.
• Gold equities versus spot gold: Miners add operating leverage, and they also add cost risk.

Potential trigger

If the market starts to question inflation control or policy credibility, the hard-asset narrative can strengthen. If the RBA stays restrictive while disinflation continues, gold can lose urgency, and money can rotate into other trades.

Key risks

• Real yields rising significantly, which can pressure gold.
• Crowding and positioning unwinds that can cause sharp pullbacks.
  
  

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6. Market plumbing, FX, rates volatility, and dispersion

In some RBA weeks, the first move shows up in rates and the Australian dollar, and equities follow later through sector rotation rather than a clean index move.

When guidance shifts, the RBA can change how markets move together. You can end up with a flat index while sectors swing hard in opposite directions.

What to watch

• Front-end rates: Repricing speed right after the decision can reveal the real surprise.
• AUD reaction: Direction and follow-through often shape the next move in equities and resources.
• Implied versus realised volatility: Can show whether the market paid too much or too little for the event.
• Options skew: Can reflect demand for downside protection versus upside chasing.
• Early tape behaviour: The first 5 to 15 minutes can be messy and can mean-revert.

Potential trigger

If the decision is expected but the statement leans hawkish, the front end may reprice first, and the AUD can move with it. Realised volatility can still jump even if the index barely moves, as the market rewrites the path and rotates positions under the surface.

Key risks

• A true surprise that overwhelms what options implied and creates gap moves.
• Competing macro headlines that dominate the tape and drown out the RBA signal.
• Thin liquidity that creates false signals, whipsaw, and worse execution than models assume.

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7. Theme baskets

Theme baskets may let traders express a macro regime while reducing single-name risk. They also introduce their own risks, especially around events.

What to watch

• What the basket holds: Methodology, rebalance rules, hidden concentration.
• Liquidity and spreads: Especially around event windows.
• Tracking versus the narrative: Whether the “theme” behaves like the macro driver.

Potential trigger

If RBA language reinforces a “restrictive and uncertain” regime, theme baskets tied to value, quality, or hard assets may attract attention, particularly if broad indices get choppy.

Key risks

• Theme reversal when macro expectations shift.
• Liquidity risk around event windows, where spreads can widen materially.
  
  

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The point of this playbook is not to predict the exact headline; it is to know where the second-order effects usually land, and to have a short checklist ready before the decision hits.

Keeping these triggers and risks in view may help some traders structure their monitoring around RBA decisions throughout 2026.

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FAQs

Why does “tone” matter so much in 2026?

Because markets often pre-price the decision. The incremental information is guidance on whether the RBA sounds comfortable, concerned, or open to moving again.

What are the fastest tells right after a decision?

Some traders look to front-end rates, the AUD, and sector leadership as early indicators, but these signals can be noisy and influenced by positioning and liquidity.

Why are REITs called duration trades?

Because a large part of their valuation can be sensitive to discount rates and funding costs. When yields move, valuations can reprice quickly.

Are defensives always safer around the RBA?

Not always. If yields jump, long-duration defensives can still be repriced lower even with stable earnings.

Why do hard assets keep showing up in 2026 narratives?

Because they can act as a hedge when trust in policy credibility wobbles, but they also carry crowding and real-yield risks.

Expected earnings date: Wednesday, 25 February 2026 (US, after market close) / ~8:00 am, Thursday, 26 February 2026 (AEDT)

NVIDIA’s upcoming earnings release is expected to revolve around data centre revenue growth, the sustainability of AI-related demand, gross margin trajectory, and forward guidance into fiscal year 2027 (FY2027).  

Markets are likely to focus on capital expenditure trends, supply capacity, and management’s AI infrastructure outlook.

Some market participants may also view NVIDIA’s results as a useful signal for broader AI-related investment sentiment, although outcomes can still be influenced by company-specific factors and wider market conditions.  

Key areas in focus

Data centre (AI chips)

The data centre segment continues to be NVIDIA’s primary growth driver. Markets are likely to monitor revenue growth rates, gross margins, and guidance around AI accelerator demand.  

Gaming

NVIDIA also sells graphics cards for gaming PCs. Markets will watch whether this part of the business remains steady and profitable, particularly alongside broader consumer and PC-cycle trends.  

Automotive and Professional Visualisation

These are smaller divisions linked to AI development, design software and autonomous driving. They are not typically the main driver of near-term results, but commentary may be watched for signs of longer-term growth and product momentum.  

Profit margins and costs

Markets will assess how profitable NVIDIA remains, particularly as AI-related investment and supply scaling continue. Margins are one factor closely watched alongside revenue growth, guidance, and broader risk sentiment.  

What happened last quarter

In its most recent quarterly update, NVIDIA reported strong year-on-year revenue growth, led primarily by data centre demand.

Management commentary and subsequent reporting referenced ongoing strength in AI accelerator demand and referenced continued supply-scaling initiatives.  

Last earnings key highlights

• Revenue: US$57.0 billion

• Earnings per share (EPS): US$1.30 (diluted)

• Data centre revenue: US$51.2 billion

• Gross margin: 73.4%

• Operating income: US$36.0 billion

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What analysts expect this quarter

Bloomberg consensus estimates point to continued year-on-year revenue growth in the upcoming report, with markets focused on data centre performance and forward guidance into FY2027.  

Bloomberg consensus reference point:  

• EPS: about US$1.52

• Revenue: about US$65.5 billion

• Full-year FY2027 EPS: about US$7.66

*All above points observed as of 16 February 2026.

Analysts broadly expect sustained AI-related demand, while attention remains on supply dynamics and the pace of any demand normalisation.  

Market-implied expectations

Listed options were pricing an indicative move of approximately ±7% to ±8% around the earnings release, based on near-dated, at-the-money (ATM) options-implied expected-move estimates. Implied volatility was approximately 48% annualised.

What this means for Australian investors

NVIDIA’s earnings may influence near-term sentiment and volatility across major US equity indices, including the NASDAQ 100, with potential spillover into the Asia session following the release.

It may also influence sentiment toward ASX-listed technology-exposed companies and ETFs with exposure to US large-cap growth sectors, although correlations can shift quickly around major events.

Australian-based investors may also wish to factor in AUD/USD currency moves, which can affect the local-currency translation of offshore equities and ETFs.

Important risk note

Immediately after the US close and into the early Asia session, Nasdaq 100 (NDX) futures and related CFD pricing can reflect thinner liquidity, wider spreads, and sharper repricing around new information.

Such an environment can increase gap risk and execution uncertainty relative to regular-hours conditions.

Markets head into the week beginning 16 February with a heavy mix of economic data and ongoing earnings momentum, which will feed into the broader growth picture. 

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• Flash PMIs (Friday): US, Eurozone, UK and Japan business surveys provide an early read on February growth momentum.
• AI beyond tech: Commentary has increasingly focused on how AI could affect business models across industries, although sector moves can reflect multiple drivers.
• Equity rotation: Recent tech performance has been mixed, and broader participation looks less consistent than a confirmed rotation.
• Earnings: With most US mega caps reported, retail and consumer names are in focus this week, and the Australian reporting season remains busy.
• Bitcoin (BTC): Pulled back after an attempted rebound and remains highly sensitive to shifts in sentiment.

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Flash PMIs

Friday’s flash PMI readings across major economies could provide a timely read on business conditions and demand trends.

If services remain resilient while manufacturing stays soft, markets may interpret this as steady but uneven growth. If both weaken, growth concerns could return more quickly.

Earlier in the week, Japan GDP, UK labour data, UK CPI, Australian employment, and US trade data helped set the tone before Friday’s flash PMI releases from multiple countries.

Key dates

• Flash PMIs (US, Eurozone and UK): Friday, 20 February

Monitor

• Currency volatility around PMI releases.
• Bond yield reactions to growth surprises or disappointment.
• Sector and commodity performance shifts that may be tied to changing demand expectations.

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AI disruption

Some market commentary has highlighted potential longer-term competitive implications of AI across a range of industries, although company and sector performance can still be driven by macro conditions, rates and earnings expectations.

• Financials: Some discussion has focused on whether AI tools could alter parts of wealth management and advice delivery over time, though share-price moves can reflect multiple influences.
• Logistics and freight: Some market discussion has centred on whether greater automation could affect costs and pricing dynamics over time, alongside other cyclical drivers.
• Software: Reactions remain mixed, with some companies benefiting from AI integration while others face questions about differentiation and pricing power.

This shift means the AI theme could increasingly express itself through relative performance and dispersion, rather than a broad “risk-on” bid.

Monitor

• Earnings guidance that references automation, AI investment, or AI-related competitive pressure.
• Increased dispersion between sectors and within sectors.
• Larger reactions to forward-looking commentary rather than headline beats or misses.

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Equity rotation

The rebound in technology shares seen earlier last week has lost momentum. Rather than clear risk-off conditions, the market is showing mixed participation. 

Financials, industrials and defensive sectors have attracted flows at times, but not consistently enough to confirm a durable rotation.

Participation remains uneven, and evidence of a more consistent pattern of money flow is still limited at this stage.

Monitor

• Sustained relative strength in non-tech sectors.
• Yield movements and their influence on growth-sensitive equities
• Broader sector participation versus narrow tech leadership

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Earnings focus

As the US earnings season moves towards its backend, attention turns toward retail names this week. 

Retail results can provide signals about consumer strength, discretionary spending trends and margin resilience, particularly amid mixed perceptions about the state of the economy.

In Australia, reporting season continues, supporting stock-specific volatility across the ASX.

Monitor

• Retail margin commentary and discounting trends
• Consumer demand outlook statements and guidance tone
• Large single-stock moves even when index direction is muted

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Bitcoin sentiment-sensitive

Bitcoin has traded lower over recent sessions and remains highly volatile. A move back toward the 5 February low is possible, but prices can change quickly in either direction. 

Some market participants view Bitcoin as one indicator of speculative sentiment, although any broader “risk appetite” read-through is uncertain and can be influenced by multiple drivers across crypto markets.

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Key economic events