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Amazon (AMZN): US earnings outlook
Mike Smith
30/1/2026
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Expected earnings date: Thursday, 5 February 2026 (US, after market close)/early Friday, 6 February 2026

Amazon’s earnings provide insight into global consumer spending trends, cloud infrastructure demand, and the monetisation of its ecosystem across retail, advertising, and subscription services.

Focus is expected to remain on performance across key business areas, along with commentary on cost efficiency, capital expenditure, and AI-related investments, including data centre expansion. 

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Key areas in focus

Online stores and third-party services

Amazon’s core retail business remains sensitive to discretionary consumer demand, particularly through the December-quarter holiday period. Markets are likely to focus on revenue growth and margins across both first-party retail and third-party seller services. Cost pressures will also be evaluated. 

AWS (Amazon Web Services)

AWS is a key earnings driver. Investors are likely to focus on revenue growth rates, margin trends, and indications around enterprise cloud spending. AI workloads will also be noteworthy. Any commentary on capacity expansion and capex is likely to be closely watched.  

Advertising services

Amazon’s advertising business has become an increasingly important profit contributor. Markets are likely to assess growth momentum, advertiser demand, and how advertising integrates across Amazon’s retail and Prime ecosystems.  

Subscription services (including Prime)

Subscription revenue includes Prime memberships and related digital services. Investors may watch engagement, pricing dynamics, and retention trends as indicators of ecosystem strength. 

Cost and margin framework

Management has previously emphasised the need for cost discipline across fulfilment, logistics, and corporate expenses. Reported operating margins and any updates on efficiency gains or reinvestment priorities across key business services will be of interest. 

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What happened last quarter

Amazon’s most recent quarterly update reported revenue growth and operating income outcomes, with AWS and advertising referenced as key contributors, alongside ongoing cost-control measures across the retail business. 

The prior update also included discussion relevant to investment priorities in cloud and AI infrastructure, which continue to influence market expectations. 

Last earnings key highlights

  • Revenue: US$180.2 billion 
  • Earnings per share (EPS): US$1.95 (diluted) 
  • AWS revenue: US$33.0 billion 
  • Advertising services revenue: US$17.7 billion 
  • Operating income: US$17.4 billion 

How the market reacted last time

Amazon shares moved higher in after-hours trading following the previous release, based on reporting at the time. 

Amazon Q3 2025 Consolidated Statements of Operations

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What’s expected this quarter

Bloomberg consensus estimates point to year-on-year EPS growth for the quarter ended December 2025, with markets focused on the revenue outcome, operating margins, and AWS performance, given the importance of the December quarter (Q4) to Amazon’s earnings profile. 

Bloomberg consensus reference points (January 2026):

  • EPS: about US$1.60 
  • Revenue: about US$170 billion 
  • Full-year FY2026 EPS: about US$5.10 

*All above points observed as of 27 January 2026.

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Expectations

Market sentiment around Amazon may be sensitive to any disappointment in AWS growth, operating margins, or December-quarter (Q4 2025) retail performance, given the stock’s large index weighting within major US equity indices and its role in these areas. 

Listed options were pricing an indicative move of around ±4% to ±5% based on near-dated, at-the-money options-implied expected move estimates observed on Barchart at 11:00 am AEDT, 28 January 2026. 

Implied volatility was approximately 32% annualised at that time. 

These are market-implied estimates (not a forecast) and may change. Actual post-earnings price moves can be larger or smaller.

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What this means for Australian investors

Amazon’s earnings can influence near-term sentiment across major US equity indices, with potential spillover into the Asia session following the release. It may also influence sentiment towards ASX-listed companies with significant online sales exposure.

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Important risk note 

Immediately after the US close and into the early Asia session, Nasdaq 100 (NDX) futures and related CFD pricing can reflect thinner liquidity, wider spreads, and sharper repricing around new information. 

Such an environment can increase gap risk and execution uncertainty relative to regular-hours conditions.

By
Mike Smith
Mike Smith (MSc, PGdipEd) Client Education and Training

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FX market outlook, forex markets June 2026, US dollar, Japanese yen, AUD/JPY, USD/JPY, DXY, Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, RBA, forex CFDs, Treasury yields, yen intervention, policy divergence, currency markets
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What could move currency markets in June 2026?

Currency markets in June are being shaped by the re-steepening of the US Treasury yield curve, safe-haven demand and diverging monetary policy paths.

The Federal Reserve remains on a hawkish hold, while the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is managing renewed inflation pressure and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to navigate a wide yield gap against the US. That mix has kept the US dollar supported, left the Japanese yen under pressure, and made AUD/JPY one of the key crosses to watch.

All US release times below are Eastern Time unless stated otherwise.

Quick facts strip

DXY context

Well supported near the 100 level on safe-haven and yield demand

Strongest currency

US dollar (USD), supported by sticky inflation and high yields

Weakest currency

Japanese yen (JPY), pressured by yield divergence and energy import costs

Main central bank theme

Policy divergence as markets reassess rate-cut expectations

Main catalyst ahead

FOMC and BOJ meetings on 16 to 17 June 2026

Leaderboard

01 USD
Maintained upward momentum as the Federal Reserve’s higher-for-longer policy stance firmed.
Strongest
02 JPY
Remained volatile near the closely watched 160 threshold against the US dollar.
Volatile
03 AUD
Firmed as markets assessed Australia’s restrictive policy settings and resilient commodity exports.
Firmed
04 EUR
Came under pressure from softer Eurozone activity signals and a stronger US dollar.
Down

Strongest mover: US dollar (USD)

The greenback reasserted its position as a yield and safe-haven asset. The US Dollar Index (DXY) regained the 100 level as inflation and tariff uncertainty kept rate-cut expectations muted.

Key drivers

  • Robust growth: Robust economic data, with first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) expanding at an annual rate of 2.0%
  • Sticky inflation: Rebounding inflation, with the consumer price index (CPI) rising to 3.8% in April
  • Safe haven: Safe-haven demand linked to Middle East shipping disruption and Strait of Hormuz toll risks

June events to watch

• 5 June, 8:30 am ET | 10:30 pm AEST: Employment Situation, including non-farm payrolls (NFP)
• 10 June, 8:30 am ET | 10:30 pm AEST: CPI
• 16 to 17 June: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting
• 17 June, 2:00 pm ET | 4:00 am AEST (Next Day): FOMC statement and projections
• 17 June, 2:30 pm ET | 4:30 am AEST (Next Day): Fed Chair press conference

Why it matters

Traders are watching the 17 June FOMC decision for updated projections and guidance on the policy path. The Federal Reserve calendar lists the 16 to 17 June FOMC meeting, with the statement scheduled for 2:00pm ET and the press conference for 2:30pm ET on 17 June. On the downside, any unexpected de-escalation in Middle East tensions could see energy prices fall sharply, which may cool part of the dollar’s inflation premium.

Weakest mover: Japanese yen (JPY)

The yen has faced heavy downward pressure, trading near the closely watched 160 level against the US dollar as the yield gap remains difficult to ignore.

Key drivers

  • Yield spread: A wide yield disadvantage against the US dollar
  • Import stress: Rising import costs for essential energy and food
  • Carry trade: Speculative yen selling as carry traders focus on the rate spread

June events to watch

• 16 to 17 June, Tokyo time: BOJ monetary policy meeting
• 24 June, 8:50 am JST | 9:50 am AEST: Summary of Opinions

Why it matters

Traders are monitoring the risk of direct intervention from Japan’s Ministry of Finance if yen weakness becomes disorderly. The BOJ’s 2026 schedule lists a monetary policy meeting for 16 to 17 June, and notes that Summary of Opinions releases are generally published at 8:50am JST. A surprise shift in BOJ guidance, a rate increase, or a sudden risk-off liquidation in global assets could trigger a short squeeze and drive the yen sharply higher.

Most important cross: AUD/JPY

AUD/JPY remains one of the clearest expressions of yield divergence and energy asymmetry. Australia is a major commodity exporter, while Japan is a large energy importer. That means higher energy prices can create very different macro pressures for each side of the cross.

Key drivers

  • Energy split: Higher oil prices may support Australia’s commodity-linked sentiment while increasing Japan’s import burden
  • RBA path: RBA policy expectations remain sensitive to domestic inflation and labour market data
  • BOJ factors: BOJ policy expectations remain sensitive to yen weakness, imported inflation and official intervention risk

June events to watch

• 16 June, 2:30 pm AEST | 12:30 am ET: RBA monetary policy decision statement
• 16 June, 3:30 pm AEST | 1:30 am ET: RBA Governor media conference
• 16 to 17 June, Tokyo time: BOJ monetary policy meeting
• 24 June, 11:30 am AEST | 9:30 pm ET (Prev. Day): Australia monthly CPI indicator
• 30 June, 11:30 am AEST | 9:30 pm ET (Prev. Day): Minutes of the June RBA Monetary Policy Board meeting

Why it matters

If the RBA keeps a restrictive bias while the BOJ moves cautiously, AUD/JPY could remain supported by carry demand. If the BOJ shifts more hawkishly in June, or if commodity prices such as iron ore weaken sharply, AUD/JPY could face a rapid corrective pullback. That keeps the cross on the watchlist for traders using the GO Markets forex CFDs platform.

The data to watch next

05
Jun
US Employment Situation (NFP)
USD pairs, Gold · 8:30 am ET | 10:30 pm AEST

The Bureau of Labor Statistics lists the Employment Situation report, providing the clearest baseline picture of structural US labor market health.

10
Jun
US Consumer Price Index (CPI)
USD pairs · 8:30 am ET | 10:30 pm AEST

April metrics showed CPI climbing to 3.8%; this updated release serves as a prime indicator for core service stickiness and tariff disruptions.

11
Jun
US Producer Price Index (PPI)
USD crosses · 8:30 am ET | 10:30 pm AEST

Wholesale input metrics scheduled for publication by the BLS, tracking the wholesale side of the current sticky inflation environment.

16
Jun
RBA Policy Decision
AUD crosses, ASX 200 · 2:30 pm AEST | 12:30 am ET

RBA monetary policy decision statement release, followed explicitly by the Governor media conference at 3:30pm AEST to unpack restrictive settings.

16-17
Jun
FOMC & BOJ Monetary Policy Meetings
Global macro pairs · Multi-session | Tokyo & NY Time

A critical central bank cluster. Highlights include the 17 June US policy statement (2:00pm ET) and press conference (2:30pm ET) alongside Tokyo's interest rate spreads.

Key levels and signals

  • ◆
    DXY 100

    A psychological and technical line for USD strength, backed firmly by safe-haven demand and high yields.

  • ◆
    USD/JPY 160

    A closely watched ceiling for potential official intervention risk from Japan's Ministry of Finance if price shifts become disorderly.

  • ◆
    AUD/USD 0.7202

    Near-term resistance if risk sentiment remains constructive and commodity exports demonstrate structural resilience.

  • ◆
    US 10-year Treasury yield 4.5%

    A technical baseline that may increase pressure on equity valuations if sustained, reflecting the broader structural re-steepening of the curve.

Bottom line

Global FX moves in June are set to remain highly sensitive to rate expectations, energy prices and geopolitical developments.

The US dollar’s dual role as a yield and safe-haven currency continues to offer support, while the yen remains exposed to carry demand and intervention risk. AUD/JPY sits at the intersection of those forces, making it one of the cleaner ways to track the policy and energy split across the region.

For traders, the key issue is not only which central bank moves next. It is whether inflation, oil and yields keep moving in the same direction, or whether a policy surprise forces a rapid unwind.

Asia-Pacific Coverage

Follow FX through the Asia session

Stay close to Asia-Pacific themes, regional data, sentiment and key crosses.

GO Markets
•
May 26, 2026
每日财经快讯
美伊爆出重大利好，油价重挫，风险偏好飙升！

周末特朗普宣布与伊朗达成停战谅解备忘录，风险资产用脚投票押注战争全面结束。

 

停战备忘录具体的内容

根据媒体的报道来看美伊的和平谅解备忘录包含几个市场重点关注的内容，其中双方在霍尔木兹的开放上面达成了一致，伊朗将对水雷进行免费清理允许海运油轮，使得船只通行在一个月内恢复到站前水准，而美国将会接触对伊朗港口实施的海军封锁撤出相关水域，并且承诺解冻伊朗海外250亿美元的资产，停火协议延长60天。

 

给全球金融市场带来的影响

从备忘录内容中不难发现，所谓协议调节谈了这么久全球金融市场真正紧盯的部分并非是局部地区的战火民生或者主权保障等问题，市场真正在意的还是航道因素带来的能源短缺和价格飙升，而备忘录当中对于恢复航运和能源供应的措辞让周一开盘的市场出现了一边倒的迹象，油价暴力下挫的同时，金银及股指期货都获得了极强的上涨动力，纷纷跳空高开，高开高走。

 

措辞的差异

·     美伊双方虽然协定了开放霍尔木兹海峡但是在具体实施上双方并没有达成一致措辞，美国反馈海峡的行驶和通航是完全开放且不收费的，但是伊朗官方媒体坚持表态海峡管理权由伊朗决定，并非完全意义的自由通行，所有船只依然接受伊朗的管理，在是否免费方面也由伊朗方面进行裁决

 

·     美国觉得本轮谈判核问题是让位于海峡生命线通航，但是在60天停火协议结束后依然保持伊朗交出浓缩铀的底线，而伊朗的反馈则是将核问题分开进行谈判，本轮谈判的所有筹码不包含核问题，核问题还将与美国进行新一轮的磋商

 

·     华盛顿对于从伊朗撤军这一问题上表示不会再伊朗履约之前解除封锁，而伊朗的的表态则全程围绕美军解除封锁再行清理水雷。

 

·     双方叙事上看伊朗将其总结为通过能源命脉封锁逼迫美国退让捍卫主权的胜利，而美国则宣传为通过武力施压迫使伊朗放弃核发展的战略性胜利。

 

各方的反应

对于全球依赖霍尔木兹海峡能源供应的国家如欧洲和日韩等国对于本次备忘录的达成自然是欢欣鼓舞，因为长期以来能源价格不仅威胁了这些国家的经济发展也对政治生态造成了极大的压力。而巴基斯坦和卡塔尔在本次斡旋中居功至伟，其所攫取的战略利益不局限于经济利益更兼政治利益的极大反馈。

美伊双方则是通过大赢特赢在宣传本次备忘录带来的赫赫战果。

唯一对这件事表达不满的则集中在以色列一侧，以色列对于是否能完全摧毁伊朗的核武器计划拥有非常执着的信念，其官方表态和总理表态上都是对该条件赋予底线般的定义，认为伊朗会利用这六十天的窗口进行高浓缩铀和离心机网络的构建，所以在表态上以色列强调其不是备忘录签署国，不受该协议约束，而这种“自由行动”的表态口径仍将给短暂的和平曙光带来极大的不确定性，同时以色列强烈谴责美国解绑伊朗被冻资产。而这一系列的表态并未让美国改变短期策略，而持续的施压不成是否会演变为下一轮的突发性冲突或将变成短期内市场头上高悬的达摩克利斯之剑。

 

总结：

从即时性反馈来看全球资本市场和风险偏好都已经定价了美伊战争已经圆满终结是一个非常危险的信号，因为以色列的不确定性和高悬的油价依然没有被彻底解决，就连美伊双方的措辞也是牛唇不对马嘴，所以投资者在追逐风险偏好类的情绪之前必须谨慎看待此次事件带来的短线利好刺激。

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William Zhao
•
May 25, 2026
Tariffs may affect US and Asian companies in different ways. For US retailers and consumer brands, the pressure often appears through margins as import costs rise and pricing power is tested. For Asian exporters, the pressure may appear through lower order volumes if US buyers reduce demand. Textiles, apparel and basic consumer goods are generally more sensitive to US demand, while semiconductors and AI hardware may be less directly exposed to US consumers but still carry policy, capex and valuation risks.
Market insights
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The tariff impact: The US margin problem vs Asia’s volume problem

Tariffs do not hit every company the same way.

For US retailers and consumer brands, the first hit is usually margin. Import costs rise before pricing power does. Companies can try to pass those costs on, but customers may resist higher prices, especially if household budgets are already stretched. Existing inventory can also soften the first blow, which means the initial earnings result may look manageable while the next one carries the real pressure.

For Asian exporters, the stress can show up differently. The risk is not always a sharp price cut. It may be a slower order book, as US buyers delay purchases, reduce volumes or shift suppliers. That makes the impact more uneven across sectors, with the pressure depending on what each company sells, where it sits in the supply chain and how exposed it is to US demand.

Tariffs, earnings and the Asia versus US split | GO Markets

Same tariff. Different earnings hit.

That is the key split for traders watching this earnings season. The US side is mainly about margin timing. The Asia side is about demand sensitivity. Not every export sector carries the same level of US demand risk.

TL;DR

  • US companies may face margin pressure as tariffed inventory moves through earnings.
  • Asian exporters may face volume pressure if US buyers reduce orders.
  • The timing is different: US retailers may feel the impact later, while Asian exporters may see it earlier through weaker order books.
  • Textiles, apparel and basic consumer goods are likely more sensitive to US demand.
  • Semiconductors and AI hardware may be less directly exposed to US consumers, but still carry policy, capex and valuation risk.

The big picture

Tariffs are paid at the US border by importers. From there, the cost can move through the system in several ways: higher prices, weaker margins, lower supplier prices, lower demand or a mix of all four.

Research cited by the Kiel Institute and New York Fed suggests US buyers and businesses may be absorbing a significant share of the tariff burden. That matters because it changes where the earnings pressure shows up first.

For a US retailer, the problem is straightforward but uncomfortable. If the company raises prices, demand may weaken. If it absorbs the tariff cost, margins may compress. If it still has older inventory, the hit may not show up immediately.

For an Asian exporter, the pressure can arrive through a different channel. If US buyers become cautious, they may order less. The exporter may keep prices relatively stable, but factory utilisation falls, fixed costs are spread across fewer units and earnings pressure builds.

That is why this is not just a tariff story. It is an earnings timing story.

US companies: the margin problem

The US side of the tariff story is about cost absorption.

Retailers, apparel brands, consumer electronics sellers and appliance companies often rely on imported goods, components or packaging. When tariff costs rise, they may try to protect margins through price increases, supplier negotiations, sourcing changes or inventory management.

The challenge is that none of these are clean solutions.

Price increases can test consumer demand. Supplier negotiations may take time. Sourcing changes can be expensive or slow. Inventory timing can make the first result look better than the underlying cost trend.

This is why earnings calls matter. Management commentary around pricing actions, tariff mitigation, sourcing, vendor negotiations and inventory timing may reveal more than headline sales growth.

What to watch on the US side

These signals may provide useful context in upcoming earnings reports:

If margins hold while sales remain stable, companies may be managing the pressure. If sales rise but margins fall, tariff costs may not be passing through cleanly. If guidance becomes more cautious, the market may start pricing a delayed earnings impact.

Asian exporters: the volume problem

The Asia side is not always about exporters cutting prices.

In many categories, Asian suppliers operate in competitive global markets with limited pricing power. If US buyers reduce orders, exporters may feel the impact through lower volumes rather than lower unit prices.

That distinction matters.

A company can report stable prices and still face earnings pressure if factories are running below normal utilisation. Lower volumes can reduce operating leverage, delay capital expenditure and weaken guidance.

The highest-risk sectors are usually those most closely tied to US retail demand, seasonal buying cycles and low-margin production.

Which Asian sectors are most exposed?

1. Textiles and apparel +
Highest Sensitivity

Textiles and apparel are among the clearest examples of US demand exposure.

These exporters are often tied directly to US retail orders, private-label contracts and seasonal buying cycles. If US retailers turn cautious, orders can be delayed, reduced or cancelled relatively quickly.

Risk is higher because margins are often thin, production is labour-intensive and buyers may have more power in negotiations.

Relevant export markets: Vietnam, Bangladesh, India, Indonesia and parts of China.
2. Basic consumer goods +
High Sensitivity

This includes toys, household goods, furniture, simple appliances and other discretionary or semi-discretionary exports.

These categories are exposed when US retailers reduce inventory or when consumers pull back from non-essential spending. Tariffs can add pressure if buyers try to push costs back onto suppliers.

Relevant export markets: China, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia.
3. Electronics assembly +
Medium to High Sensitivity

Electronics assembly is more mixed.

Lower-end consumer electronics can be sensitive to US household demand. Higher-value components or enterprise-linked electronics may be more resilient, depending on end-market exposure.

This sector can also be harder to read because supply chains are complex. A company may look like a technology exporter, but its actual earnings sensitivity may still depend on US consumer replacement cycles.

Relevant export markets: China, Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, Taiwan and the Philippines.
4. Machinery and industrial goods +
Medium Sensitivity

Machinery is less directly tied to US consumer demand than apparel or household goods. The risk is more about business investment.

If US companies delay capital expenditure because tariff uncertainty rises, machinery orders may weaken. However, order books can provide some buffer, and specialised products may have more pricing power.

Relevant export markets: Japan, South Korea, China, Taiwan and Singapore.
5. Semiconductors +
Lower Direct Sensitivity

Semiconductors are less directly exposed to US retail demand than textiles or consumer goods. Demand is often tied to broader technology cycles, autos, industrials, cloud infrastructure and AI investment.

That does not make the sector risk-free. Tariffs, export controls, geopolitics and a weaker global capex cycle can still affect earnings expectations.

Relevant export markets: Taiwan, South Korea, Malaysia, Singapore and parts of China.
6. AI hardware and data-centre supply chains +
Lowest Direct Sensitivity

AI hardware is more tied to cloud capital expenditure and data-centre buildouts than day-to-day consumer spending.

The risk is different. It is less about US shoppers buying fewer goods and more about whether AI capex expectations remain realistic, whether policy restrictions expand and whether valuations already price in strong growth.

Relevant export markets: Taiwan, South Korea, Malaysia and advanced electronics supply-chain hubs.

A simple sector risk map

Sensitivity Analysis
Indicative Asian exporter sensitivity to US consumer demand
Note: This is a general framework only. Sensitivity may vary by company, customer mix, contract structure and end market exposure.

Why timing matters

The US and Asia timelines may not line up.

A US retailer may still be selling older inventory, so the tariff impact can be delayed. Margins may hold in one quarter, then weaken as new tariffed inventory becomes a larger share of the sales mix.

An Asian exporter may see the pressure earlier if US buyers reduce orders before the cost hit appears in US consumer prices.

That creates a split earnings map:

  • US side: delayed margin pressure.
  • Asia side: earlier volume pressure.
  • Policy side: tariff exemptions, pauses or escalations can change the setup quickly.

The mistake is assuming a clean and immediate tariff impact. A strong US retailer result does not automatically mean tariff pressure is gone. It may only mean older inventory is still flowing through. A stable Asian exporter margin does not automatically mean demand is healthy. Volumes may be weakening beneath the surface.

The trap in the earnings season

What to watch next

On the US side, gross margins, inventory commentary, same-store sales and second-half guidance may provide useful context.

On the Asia side, export volumes, factory utilisation, order backlogs, working capital and capital expenditure guidance may be more relevant.

Across both regions, tariff policy remains the swing factor. Exemptions, pauses or new restrictions could quickly change market expectations.

Sector charts may provide additional context on whether market pricing is aligning with the earnings narrative, but they should be read alongside company commentary and macro data from the economic calendar.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How do tariffs affect US companies and Asian exporters differently? +
Tariffs may affect US companies through margin pressure and Asian exporters through volume pressure. US companies may face higher import costs, while Asian exporters may face fewer orders from US buyers.
Which Asian export sectors are most exposed to US demand? +
Textiles, apparel and basic consumer goods are generally more exposed to US demand because they are closely tied to retail orders and consumer spending. Electronics assembly and machinery are moderately exposed, while semiconductors and AI hardware may be less directly exposed.
Why can tariff impacts show up later in retailer earnings? +
Retailers may still be selling older inventory purchased before tariffs applied. The impact may become more visible later as new tariffed inventory moves through sales and margins.
What should investors watch in tariff-related earnings reports? +
General signals include gross margins, inventory commentary, same-store sales, export volumes, factory utilisation, order backlogs and management commentary on pricing or sourcing.
Are semiconductors and AI hardware exposed to tariffs? +
They may be less directly exposed to US consumer demand, but they can still be affected by policy restrictions, export controls, global capex cycles and valuation expectations.
Bottom Line

The tariff story is no longer only about who pays. It is about where the earnings pressure shows up first.

GO Markets
•
May 25, 2026
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