Asian Open – FX analysis - USD and yields tumble, risk currencies rally on weak US data
Lachlan Meakin
18/10/2023
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USD was firmly in the red in Tuesdays session, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) having it’s largest drop since mid-July. A rally in DXY during the Asian and early European session dramatically reversed after big misses on the JOLTS report and consumer confidence saw a dovish repricing in rates markets and a risk-on back in charge. Stocks rallied and the Dollar tumbled throughout the rest of the session.
DXY hitting lows of 103.36, breaking through the minor R/S level of 103.60 after testing the major resistance zone of the May/June/August highs. DXY now sitting on its upward trendline which has been in play since mid-July, which so far has lent some support. Looking ahead today there will be more jobs data (ADP) and Prelim GDP for USD traders to navigate.
AUD, NZD and EUR were all firmer against the USD. High beta AUD and NZD were the clear outperformers while EUR saw similar gains, all benefitting from USD weakness and a risk-on environment as opposed to anything currency specific. AUD was also given an extra boost by gains in iron ore.
AUDUSD hit a high of 0.6487, testing last week’s highs and the resistance just below the psychological 0.6500 level. NZDUSD up to 0.5977 also pushing to the highs of its recent range. Ahead today a pivotal CPI figure out of Australia may see some of these levels tested.
EURUSD hit highs of 1.0891, retaking the support level at 1.0840 and looking to test the big figure at 1.09 to the upside. Eurozone inflation figures out of Germany and Spain released later today will be the main risk events for EUR traders. JPY rallied against the USD later in the session on the retreat of US Treasury yields after weak US data.
Earlier in the session though USDJPY breached the August highs resistance level to trade up to a high of 147.38 (which was its highest level since November) before the aforementioned weak US data and move lower in UST yields saw a dramatic reversal. BoJ intervention on the Yen still on the back of JPY traders’ minds. Today’s calendar has some decent risk events likely to cause volatility in FX markets, starting with Aussie CPI, then CPI readings from the Eurozone and topped off with GDP and more jobs data out of the US.
By
Lachlan Meakin
Head of Research, GO Markets Australia.
Disclaimer: Articles are from GO Markets analysts and contributors and are based on their independent analysis or personal experiences. Views, opinions or trading styles expressed are their own, and should not be taken as either representative of or shared by GO Markets. Advice, if any, is of a ‘general’ nature and not based on your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Consider how appropriate the advice, if any, is to your objectives, financial situation and needs, before acting on the advice. If the advice relates to acquiring a particular financial product, you should obtain our Disclosure Statement (DS) and other legal documents available on our website for that product before making any decisions.
February’s FX landscape is likely to be driven by inflation persistence, labour resilience, and central bank communications. With several high-impact data releases across the US, Europe, Japan and Australia, near-term moves may be more event-driven and repricing-led, rather than trend-led.
Quick facts
USD remains the key reference point, with US data driving repricing in yields and the broader FX market.
EUR sensitivity remains high around European Central Bank (ECB) messaging and incoming inflation and activity signals.
JPY remains tightly linked to domestic data and Bank of Japan (BOJ) communication, with USD/JPY often reacting sharply to shifts in yield expectations.
AUD remains policy sensitive, with domestic inflation and labour data likely to matter most, alongside global risk tone and metals.
US dollar (USD)
Key events
Nonfarm payrolls (NFP) and unemployment: 8:30 am, 11 February (ET) | 12:30 am, 12 February (AEDT)
Consumer Price Index (CPI), headline and core: 8:30 am, 13 February (ET) | 12:30, 13 February (AEDT)
Personal income and outlays (includes the PCE price index): 8:30, 20 February (ET) | 12:30, 21 February (AEDT)
What to watch
The USD is likely to remain primarily driven by shifts in inflation and labour data and their implications for Federal Reserve rate expectations. Recent headlines surrounding Federal Reserve independence have also added volatility to USD positioning.
Stronger inflation or labour resilience is often associated with firmer USD support via higher yield expectations. Softer outcomes could reduce rate support and allow pairs like EUR/USD and AUD/USD to stabilise.
ECB flash estimates for GDP and employment: 8:00 pm, 13 February (AEDT)
What to watch
EUR direction remains linked to whether the ECB can maintain its stance without a material deterioration in activity, or whether inflation and growth data pull forward easing expectations.
Resilient growth and firm inflation could support the “higher for longer” pricing bias. Weaker growth or softer inflation could weigh on the currency, particularly if they bring forward easing expectations.
Japan preliminary GDP (Q4 2025, first preliminary): 6:50 pm, 15 February (ET) | 10:50 am, 16 February (AEDT)
National CPI (Japan): 20 February (Japan)
What to watch
JPY remains sensitive to domestic yield shifts and BOJ communication. Even modest adjustments to policy expectations could generate outsized moves in USD/JPY.
Firm growth or inflation outcomes could support JPY via higher domestic yields and shifting BOJ expectations. Softer outcomes or cautious policy messaging could keep USD/JPY supported.
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 11:30 am, 25 February (AEDT)
What to watch
AUD remains sensitive to policy, responding quickly to domestic inflation and labour data, as well as global risk sentiment and its impact on metal pricing.
Persistent wages or inflation pressures could support AUD via firmer policy expectations. Softening data could reduce rate support and weigh on AUD performance, particularly versus USD and JPY.
FX markets enter an important window with a Federal Reserve policy decision and press conference, US ISM activity data, German inflation releases, China PMIs, and Australian labour figures all due.
Quick facts
The upcoming Fed policy decision and press conference are closely watched for guidance on the potential timing of rate cuts, with implications for US Treasury yields and USD direction.
Broad USD selling has intensified over the last 48 hours. The move has coincided with renewed tariff rhetoric and heightened sensitivity to FX intervention narratives.
ISM Manufacturing PMI is scheduled for Monday, 2 February, with ISM Services PMI on Wednesday, 4 February, providing timely insight into US growth momentum.
German CPI, euro area GDP and unemployment, China PMIs, and Australian labour data provide regional context, particularly for EUR and AUD crosses.
USD/JPY
What to watch
The Federal Reserve decision and subsequent press conference are key events influencing US Treasury yields.
Any shift in tone around inflation progress, economic risks, or rate cut timing expectations may affect yield differentials and near-term USD sensitivity.
Recent broad USD weakness, reinforced by tariff-related headlines and intervention sensitivity, has added downside pressure to the USD.
On the JPY side, Japan inflation signals, including Tokyo CPI, are relevant as indicators of domestic price trends and potential policy direction.
Key releases and events
Thu 30 Jan: Japan Tokyo CPI (January)
Thu 30 Jan: Federal Reserve policy decision and press conference
Mon 2 Feb: US ISM Manufacturing PMI
Wed 4 Feb: US ISM Services PMI
Technical snapshot
USDJPY has broken lower from its recent consolidation zone, with downside range evident over the last 48 hours. Price has moved down to the 200-exponential moving average (EMA) and is testing a level not seen since October 2025.
USDJPY 1-day chart
EUR/USD
What to watch
The Fed decision and press conference may influence EUR/USD primarily through USD moves linked to Treasury yield reactions.
On the EUR side, German CPI will show inflation trends, while euro area flash GDP and unemployment data inform the regional growth outlook.
Key releases and events
Thu 29 Jan: Germany CPI (preliminary)
Thu 29 Jan: Eurozone flash GDP, Q4 2025
Thu 30 Jan: Federal Reserve decision and press conference
Fri 30 Jan: Eurozone unemployment rate
Technical snapshot
EURUSD has extended above a prior resistance level, with expanded daily ranges and strong momentum. Price action in other USD crosses suggests the move may be reflecting USD weakness, rather than a material shift in euro area fundamentals.
EURUSD 1-day chart
EUR/AUD
What to watch
Alongside euro area growth numbers, Australian employment data may influence near-term EUR/AUD sensitivity ahead of the RBA policy decision next week.
China's official PMIs remain relevant, as shifts in Chinese activity expectations can influence AUD via commodity demand and regional risk sentiment.
Key releases and events
Thu 29 Jan: Australia Labour Force, Detailed (Dec 2025), 11:30am AEDT
Fri 31 Jan: China official Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs
Tue 4 Feb: RBA policy decision
Technical snapshot
EUR/AUD has decisively broken below its prior support zone, with price now testing levels not seen since April 2025. Momentum remains negative, consistent with a renewed downside phase rather than consolidation.
EURAUD 1-day chart
Bottom line
The Fed decision and press conference, US PMI data, German inflation releases, China PMIs, and Australian labour figures are clustered in a short window.
Markets will be watching whether the USD weakness evident over the last 48 hours extends further.
FX markets face a data-heavy period in the coming days, led by US inflation releases and late-week flash purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs).
Regional data and central bank expectations in Japan, Europe, and Australia may influence cross-currency moves, particularly if outcomes differ from expectations.
Quick facts:
US Personal Income and Outlays is a key inflation release this week, closely watched by policymakers.
Flash PMIs across the US, Eurozone, Germany, and the UK offer a timely read on growth momentum.
Australian data, including labour market indicators, remains important for AUD sensitivity and Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) expectations.
FX markets can be sensitive when data outcomes differ from expectations.
USDJPY
What to watch
US attention centres on inflation and activity data, particularly the Personal Income and Outlays report and the PCE price index, alongside late-week flash manufacturing and services PMIs.
These releases are closely followed by markets for their potential influence on rate expectations and USD sensitivity.
On the JPY side, Bank of Japan (BoJ) developments remain relevant, although US data has often been a key driver of recent moves.
Key releases and events
Fri 23 Jan (US): US Personal Income and Outlays (including PCE inflation)
Fri 23 Jan (US): Manufacturing and services PMI
Technical snapshot
USDJPY continues to trade above its rising 200-day moving average, with recent daily candles showing greater overlap and smaller ranges over recent weeks.
Price has remained above the long-term average since late September, with higher swing lows still visible.
Momentum appears to have moderated since early January, consistent with slowing follow-through rather than reversal.
Daily ranges have narrowed compared with the October to November advance, again suggesting short-term consolidation.
Eurozone flash PMIs and Germany producer price index (PPI) data provide insights into regional growth momentum and whether inflation pressures are building.
While these releases may influence immediate EUR sentiment, EURUSD continues to trade in the broader context of US data outcomes and global risk conditions.
EURUSD is trading above its rising 200-day moving average (daily chart), although price action since July suggests the market has become more range-bound rather than directional, following the advances in the first half of 2025.
The broader upward structure has been in place since the beginning of 2025, although progress higher has stalled over recent months.
Momentum readings have drifted toward neutral since late November, consistent with balanced conditions.
Average daily range has continued to compress since July, consistent with a flattening of the trend.
Australian labour market data remains central for AUD sensitivity and RBA expectations. UK CPI is also due this week, which may contribute to cross volatility, particularly if it shifts expectations around the UK rates outlook.
Late-week PMI releases can also influence short-term direction, especially where they add to or challenge the current growth narrative.
Key releases and events
Wed 21 Jan: UK CPI
Thu 22 Jan: Australia Labour Force, Australia (December 2025)
Fri 23 Jan: UK flash PMIs (manufacturing and services)
Technical snapshot
GBPAUD continues to trade below its long-term moving average, with price action remaining in a downside direction since late November.
The long-term average flattened through September and has turned lower since October, with the price remaining below and showing recent signs of a greater gap between the price and the moving average.
Momentum has remained below neutral over recent months, with any retracements to the upside showing limited follow-through.
Daily ranges have narrowed compared with earlier swings, suggesting a consistent but controlled drop in price rather than impulsive movement.
With multiple data releases due across key regions, FX markets may remain sensitive to outcomes that differ from expectations.
Existing technical conditions suggest that reactions may vary by pair, with some markets consolidating while others could retain recent directional characteristics.
Your complete day-by-day guide to Australian medal chances and market-moving moments during the Milano Cortina Winter Olympics.
Quick Facts
Opening Ceremony: 6:00 am, 7 February AEDT (8:00 pm, 6 February Milan).
Prime viewing window: 4:00 am to 2:00 pm AEDT daily coincides with pre-market and ASX trading hours.
Medal ceremonies: Typically run from 6:00 am to 7:00 am AEDT. Perfect for pre-market position adjustments.
53 Australian athletescompeting: The second-largest Australian Winter Olympic team ever, with 10 genuine medal contenders.
GO Markets Olympic Schedule
GO Markets Olympic Schedule
Olympic Schedule
All times shown in AEDT
= Australian competing
🏅 = AUS medal chance
🔥 = Potential volatility
Feb 7
06:00
Opening Ceremony
Live from Milano
🔥
21:30
Men's Downhill Final
Harry Laidlaw
🔥
23:00
Women's 10km+10km Skiathlon
Rosie Fordham, Phoebe Cridland
🔥
Feb 8
05:30
Men's Snowboard Big Air Final
Valentino Guseli
🏅🔥
05:57
Women's NH Individual Final
Global Superstars (Ski Jumping)
🔥
Feb 10
05:30
Women's Snowboard Big Air Final
Tess Coady, Ally Hickman
🏅
Feb 12
00:15
Women’s Moguls Final
Jakara Anthony, Emma Bosco, Charlotte Wilson
🏅🔥
22:15
Men’s Moguls Final
Matt Graham, Jackson Harvey, George Murphy
🏅
Feb 13
00:56
Men's Snowboard Cross Finals
Adam Lambert, Cam Bolton, Jarryd Hughes
🏅
19:30
Women's Snowboard Cross Finals
Josie Baff, Abbey Wilson, Mia Clift
🏅
Feb 14
21:46
Women’s Dual Moguls Final
Jakara Anthony, Charlotte Wilson
🏅
Feb 15
08:42
Short Track (1500m Final)
Brendan Corey
21:46
Men’s Dual Moguls Final
Matt Graham, George Murphy
🏅
Feb 16
23:00
Alpine Skiing (Men's Slalom)
Harry Laidlaw
Feb 17
06:00
Pairs Figure Skating Final
A. Golubeva & H. Giotopoulos Moore
07:06
Women’s Monobob Final
Bree Walker
🏅
Feb 18
21:30
Women’s Aerials Final
Laura Peel, Danielle Scott, Abbey Willcox
🏅
23:30
Women’s Slalom Final
Madison Hoffman, Phoebe Heaydon
Feb 19
21:30
Men’s Aerials Final
Reilly Flanagan
Feb 21
05:30
Men’s Halfpipe Final
Scotty James, Valentino Guseli
🏅🔥
23:30
SkiMo Mixed Relay
Phil Bellingham & Lara Hamilton
Feb 22
05:30
Women’s Freeski Halfpipe Final
Indra Brown
🏅
07:05
Two-Woman Bobsleigh Final
Walker/Reddingius & Blizzard/Johnson
Feb 23
00:10
Men’s Ice Hockey Final
NHL Superstars
🔥
06:00
Closing Ceremony
Live from Milano
🔥
Opening Ceremony + first medals - Saturday, February 7
Opening Ceremony at breakfast time, then the first gold medal awarded in primetime on Saturday.
Harry Laidlaw represents Australia in the Men's Downhill, the Games' first Gold medal event, while cross-country skiers Rosie Fordham and Phoebe Cridland compete late Saturday night.
This same-day pairing of ceremony and first medals creates maximum media saturation, with a full weekend news cycle processing before Monday's ASX open.
Key events
Opening Ceremony: 6:00 am AEDT
Men's Downhill Final (first gold medal of the games): 9:30 pm AEDT
Women's 10km + 10km Skiathlon: 11:00 pm AEDT
For traders
NEC (Nine Entertainment): Double viewership event. Opening Ceremony 6:00 am Saturday, lines up for the peak morning TV audience. First medals at 9:30 pm are a primetime Saturday night.
Italian equities (FTSE MIB): Historically underperform during domestic Olympics. Turin 2006 saw -2.1% during the Games.
STLA (Stellantis): ESG headline risk if environmental groups target the ceremony.
Apparel sponsor arbitrage: If a non-favourite wins Men's Downhill, their sponsor sees average +2.3% pop (PyeongChang 2018, Beijing 2022 data).
First medals continue - Sunday, February 8
The medal rush continues on Sunday as 19-year-old Valentino Guseli takes flight in Men's Snowboard Big Air, offering Australia an early podium chance in one of the Games' most visually spectacular events.
With the ceremony glow still fresh, Guseli's performance sets the tone for Australia's snowboard campaign and could influence Monday's ASX open positioning for action sports stocks.
Key events
Men's Snowboard Big Air Final(Valentino Guseli): 5:30 am AEDT
Women's Normal Hill Individual Final: 5:57 am AEDT
FL (Foot Locker), ZUMZ (Zumiez): Youth retail action sports exposure. Guseli gold could create a temporary buzz.
Monday, February 9
A rare quiet day in Australia's Olympic calendar. No Australian medal events are scheduled, making this a pure observation day for traders.
Monitor how Guseli's weekend result is processed through Monday's ASX open, and position ahead of Tuesday's Coady showdown.
Tuesday, February 10
Tess Coady attempts to upgrade her 2022 bronze to gold in Women's Snowboard Big Air. The Tuesday morning timing offers traders a potential pre-market positioning window, though Coady's modest mainstream profile limits exposure compared to the moguls stars on the following day.
Key events
Women's Snowboard Big Air Final: 5:30 am AEDT
For traders
FL (Foot Locker), ZUMZ (Zumiez): Youth retail. Coady gold could create a temporary buzz.
MNST (Monster Beverage): Less volatile, general action sports sponsor.
Wednesday, February 11
The calm before Jakara Anthony. No Australian events on Wednesday means traders spend the day positioning for the biggest moment of the Games: Anthony's moguls final just past midnight.
Moguls Finals - Thursday, February 12
The biggest moment of the Games for Australia arrives just after midnight on Wednesday with Jakara Anthony defending her Olympic crown in the Women's Moguls Final.
As the nation's brightest gold medal hope with 26 World Cup victories, Anthony's 12:15 am performance is the single highest-impact potential event for NEC and VFC stocks across the entire Olympic fortnight.
Matt Graham also chases his first Olympic gold at 10:15 pm Thursday night. Both events carry high NEC and VFC volatility potential.
Key events
Women's Moguls Final (Jakara Anthony): 12:15 am AEDT
Men's Moguls Final (Matt Graham): 10:15 pm AEDT
For traders
NEC (Nine Entertainment): Monitor overnight results and viewership for Thursday open direction.
VFC (VF Corp/North Face): Sponsors both athletes. A double medal could bring a larger impact.
Defending champion volatility: An Anthony loss could create higher emotional swings.
Social sentiment: Track Twitter/Google Trends Thursday morning to gauge the magnitude of Anthony’s performance.
Friday, February 13
Snowboard cross takes centre stage with two Australian medal chances bookending Friday's trading day.
Adam Lambert's overnight final sets the morning open, while Josie Baff's evening showdown takes the Aus prime time slot.
Key events
Men's Snowboard Cross Finals: 12:56 am AEDT
Women's Snowboard Cross Finals: 7:30 pm AEDT
For traders
NEC sentiment gauge: If Lambert medals Fri morning and Graham medaled Thu night, it could create positive momentum.
Jakara Anthony competes - Saturday, February 14
Jakara Anthony goes for the double in Saturday night's Women's Dual Moguls Final.
If she claims gold Thursday and again here, the "double gold Jakara" narrative writes itself, offering geometric rather than linear media value.
Key events
Women's Dual Moguls Final (Jakara Anthony): 9:46 pm AEDT
For traders
NEC narrative power: "Double gold Jakara" could draw in more casual viewers.
If Anthony silver/bronze Thu: Redemption story potential.
Weekend timing: Saturday night result = Monday ASX gap.
Format risk: Monitor qualifying rounds; if margins are greater than 1 second (blowouts), engagement could drop.
Sunday, February 15
A quiet Sunday offers redemption arcs and low-impact action. Brendan Corey's morning short track effort carries minimal stock relevance, while Matt Graham's late-night dual moguls final provides a second medal chance after Friday's traditional event.
Key events
Short Track Speed Skating 1500m Final: 8:42 am AEDT
Men's Dual Moguls Final: 9:46 pm AEDT
For traders
VFC second opportunity: If Graham misses on Friday’s moguls, dual moguls redemption is possible.
Monday, February 16
Harry Laidlaw returns to the slopes for late Monday night slalom action, but alpine skiing holds minimal sway over Australian audiences.
This is a placeholder day in the trading calendar, with markets more focused on digesting the weekend moguls results and positioning for Tuesday's monobob final.
Key events
Men's Slalom: 11:00 pm AEDT
Bree Walker competes - Tuesday, February 17
Bree Walker could make Olympic history as she competes in the Women's Monobob Final, chasing Australia's first-ever bobsleigh medal.
While the narrative is powerful, the commercial reality is that bobsleigh has no retail sponsor footprint, limiting direct stock plays.
Key events
Pairs Figure Skating Final: 6:00 am AEDT
Women's Monobob Final: 7:06 am AEDT
For traders
NEC: Bobsleigh historically gets low ratings, but a Walker gold could provide value as an Australian-first.
Wednesday, February 18
Veterans Laura Peel and Danielle Scott take centre stage on Wednesday night in an event with proud Australian history (2 golds since 2002). However, aerials' niche appeal and late-night timing may limit market impact.
Key events
Women's Aerials Final: 9:30 pm AEDT
Women's Slalom Final: 11:30 pm AEDT
For traders
NEC: If either medals, potential for a small sentiment boost.
VFC exposure: Limited potential as aerials athletes are less commercially developed.
Thursday, February 19
Thursday night aerials effort is a low-impact finale event with minimal medal expectation for Australian Reilly Flanagan, and even less market relevance.
Scotty James' Saturday halfpipe showdown is the real conversation as the games begin winding down, although a medal run from Flanagan could create an underdog narrative.
Key events
Men's Aerials Final: 9:30 pm AEDT
Friday, February 20
The final calm before Scotty James' legacy-defining Saturday. Set up day for James' 5:30 am Saturday halfpipe final, the Games' last major potential volatility event for an Aussie athlete.
Scotty James competes - Saturday, February 21
Scotty James' legacy moment arrives Saturday morning. He’s represented Australia at five Olympics, with two medals and zero golds. This is his final chance and brings with it the Games' most emotionally charged event, and the last major trading catalyst before Monday's Closing Ceremony.
Key events
Men's Snowboard Halfpipe Final (Scotty James): 5:30 am AEDT
SkiMo Mixed Relay: 11:30 pm AEDT
For traders
NEC: Potential weekend delays on price discovery. If James gold Saturday.
NKE (Nike): Potential halo effect from gold via action sports lift.
Guseli wildcard: Valentino is also competing (his second event after Big Air, Feb 8). A dual medal could create narrative amplification.
Sunday, February 22
Sixteen-year-old Indra Brown takes the Sunday morning spotlight in Women's Freeski Halfpipe, facing off against favourite Eileen Gu (CHN) in what could become a Gen-Z brand inflection point.
Key events
Women's Freeski Halfpipe Final(Indra Brown): 5:30 am AEDT
Two-Woman Bobsleigh Final: 7:05 am
For traders
Mon-Tue watch: Monitor which brands announce Brown signings.
MILN (Global X Millennials ETF): Action sports retailers, social platforms exposure for Gen Z.
Closing Ceremony - Monday, February 23
The curtain falls on Milano Cortina 2026 with Monday morning's Closing Ceremony, and history says this is where euphoria dies.
Men's Ice Hockey Final (NHL Superstars): 12:10 am AEDT
Closing Ceremony: 6:00 am AEDT
Markets to watch:
French Alps 2030 rotation: Closing features handover to France.
Australian medal count: If greater than 4 medals (Beijing total), the government may increase 2030 winter sports funding.
Ice Hockey Final: NHL players compete for the first time since 2014. Major US/Canada viewership means a potential CMCSA boost.
Global markets move into the new week with a number of potentially high-impact catalysts. Japan’s general election lands first on Sunday, followed by US inflation and labour market data that continue to shape interest-rate expectations.
Japan election: Policy continuity and political stability are generally viewed as supportive for regional markets.
US inflation and labour market: The consumer price index (CPI) and the Employment Situation report (nonfarm payrolls, NFP) are the immediate macro focal points for the week.
Bitcoin risk gauge: Bitcoin is back near levels last seen in late 2024 and remains well below its October 2025 peak.
Sector rotation watch: Technology has recently underperformed while value and defensive segments have stabilised, with earnings season continuing to influence flows.
Japan election
The general election in Japan is primarily viewed through the lens of policy certainty. Markets typically favour a clear outcome and continuity in fiscal and monetary settings.
Unexpected results or coalition uncertainty may increase short-term volatility in the JPY and regional indices at the start of the week.
Key dates
General election (Japan): Sunday, 8 February
Results through Asian trade on Monday
Market impact
JPY may be sensitive to results uncertainty or potential changes in policy direction
Asia equities may see early-week volatility until results are clear
US inflation and labour market
Inflation remains the most direct input into interest-rate expectations, while the monthly NFP report provides a broad read on employment conditions and wage pressures.
Treasury yields and the USD often react quickly to these releases, with knock-on effects across equities, gold and growth assets.
Current pricing indicates markets assign less than a 30% probability of a cut by the April meeting, with June meeting hike probabilities above 50%.
Key dates
Employment Situation: Wednesday, 11 February 08:30 (ET) | Thursday, 12 February 00:30 (AEDT)
CPI (January 2026): Friday, 13 February 08:30 (ET) Saturday, 14 February 00:30 (AEDT)
Market impact
Yields often move first, followed by USD and then risk assets
Expectations for rate-cut timing may adjust quickly
Growth and technology shares remain more rate-sensitive
Bitcoin has declined to levels last seen prior to the US elections in November 2024 and is close to 50% below its October 2025 peak.
While not a traditional macro indicator, crypto markets could be viewed as a real-time read on investor risk tolerance. Sustained weakness can coincide with more cautious positioning across higher-beta assets, including technology shares.
Market impact
Softer crypto sentiment may coincide with reduced speculative flows
Over the past week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has outperformed, trading just below neutral, while the Nasdaq-100 has declined more than 4%, reflecting sensitivity in large-cap technology to firmer yields.
What the move may reflect
Rate-driven pressure on growth stocks
Profit-taking after strong tech performance
Earnings season favouring broader sector participation
A generally more cautious tone across higher-beta assets
Markets typically look for sustained multi-week outperformance in financials, industrials or defensives before characterising the shift as structural rotation.
Market impact
Tech remains more sensitive to yield moves
Value and defensive sectors may see relative support
Earnings guidance continues to influence leadership
February’s FX landscape is likely to be driven by inflation persistence, labour resilience, and central bank communications. With several high-impact data releases across the US, Europe, Japan and Australia, near-term moves may be more event-driven and repricing-led, rather than trend-led.
Quick facts
USD remains the key reference point, with US data driving repricing in yields and the broader FX market.
EUR sensitivity remains high around European Central Bank (ECB) messaging and incoming inflation and activity signals.
JPY remains tightly linked to domestic data and Bank of Japan (BOJ) communication, with USD/JPY often reacting sharply to shifts in yield expectations.
AUD remains policy sensitive, with domestic inflation and labour data likely to matter most, alongside global risk tone and metals.
US dollar (USD)
Key events
Nonfarm payrolls (NFP) and unemployment: 8:30 am, 11 February (ET) | 12:30 am, 12 February (AEDT)
Consumer Price Index (CPI), headline and core: 8:30 am, 13 February (ET) | 12:30, 13 February (AEDT)
Personal income and outlays (includes the PCE price index): 8:30, 20 February (ET) | 12:30, 21 February (AEDT)
What to watch
The USD is likely to remain primarily driven by shifts in inflation and labour data and their implications for Federal Reserve rate expectations. Recent headlines surrounding Federal Reserve independence have also added volatility to USD positioning.
Stronger inflation or labour resilience is often associated with firmer USD support via higher yield expectations. Softer outcomes could reduce rate support and allow pairs like EUR/USD and AUD/USD to stabilise.
ECB flash estimates for GDP and employment: 8:00 pm, 13 February (AEDT)
What to watch
EUR direction remains linked to whether the ECB can maintain its stance without a material deterioration in activity, or whether inflation and growth data pull forward easing expectations.
Resilient growth and firm inflation could support the “higher for longer” pricing bias. Weaker growth or softer inflation could weigh on the currency, particularly if they bring forward easing expectations.
Japan preliminary GDP (Q4 2025, first preliminary): 6:50 pm, 15 February (ET) | 10:50 am, 16 February (AEDT)
National CPI (Japan): 20 February (Japan)
What to watch
JPY remains sensitive to domestic yield shifts and BOJ communication. Even modest adjustments to policy expectations could generate outsized moves in USD/JPY.
Firm growth or inflation outcomes could support JPY via higher domestic yields and shifting BOJ expectations. Softer outcomes or cautious policy messaging could keep USD/JPY supported.
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 11:30 am, 25 February (AEDT)
What to watch
AUD remains sensitive to policy, responding quickly to domestic inflation and labour data, as well as global risk sentiment and its impact on metal pricing.
Persistent wages or inflation pressures could support AUD via firmer policy expectations. Softening data could reduce rate support and weigh on AUD performance, particularly versus USD and JPY.
