Three central banks are deciding rates simultaneously, Brent crude is swinging wildly around US$100 a barrel, and a war in the Middle East is rewriting the inflation outlook in real time. Whatever happens this week could set the tone for markets for the rest of 2026.

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Quick facts

• The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announces its next cash rate decision on Tuesday, with markets now pricing a 66% chance of a second hike to 4.1%.
• Some analysts have warned the Iran war could push US inflation to 3.5% by year-end and delay Fed rate cuts until September, making this week's FOMC dot plot the most closely watched in years.
• Brent crude is flirting with US$100 a barrel after Iran launched what state media described as its "most intense operation since the beginning of the war."

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RBA: Will Australia hike again?

The RBA raised the cash rate for the first time in two years to 3.85% at its February meeting after inflation picked up materially in the second half of 2025. 

The question now is whether it moves again before even seeing the next quarterly CPI print, which isn't due until 29 April.

Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser acknowledged ahead of the meeting that policymakers face a genuinely divided decision, shaped by conflicting economic signals at home and growing instability abroad. 

Financial markets currently assign around a 66% probability to another hike, with a May increase considered virtually certain regardless of what happens Monday.

Key dates

• RBA Cash Rate Decision: Tuesday 17 March, 2:30 pm AEDT
• Governor Bullock press conference: Tuesday 17 March, 3:30 pm AEDT

Monitor

• Any reference from Bullock to further hikes being likely in May
• AUD/USD immediate reaction.
• ASX banks and REITs.

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FOMC: Hold likely, all eyes on the dot plot

The FOMC meets on March 17–18, with the policy statement scheduled for 2:00 pm ET on March 18 and Chair Jerome Powell's press conference at 2:30 pm. CME FedWatch shows a 99% probability that the Fed holds rates at 3.50% to 3.75%. 

The real action is in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and dot plot. The current median dot shows one 25-basis-point cut for 2026. If it shifts to two cuts, that is dovish and bullish for risk assets. If it shifts to zero cuts or adds a rate hike into the projection, markets could react in the other direction.

Further complicating matters, Powell's term as Federal Reserve Chair expires on May 23, 2026. Kevin Warsh is the leading candidate to replace him, viewed as more hawkish on monetary policy. Any comment from Powell on this transition could move markets independently of the rate decision itself.

Key Date

• FOMC Rate Decision + SEP/Dot Plot: Thursday 19 March, 4:00 am AEDT
• Powell press conference: Thursday 19 March, 4:30 am AEDT

Monitor

• Powell's language on oil and tariff inflation.
• 2-year Treasury yield reaction.
• CME FedWatch repricing for any shift in the September cut probability.

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Bank of Japan: Further tightening could be brought forward

The BOJ meets on March 18–19, with the decision expected Thursday morning Tokyo time. The current policy rate sits at 0.75% (a 30-year high), and the January 2026 meeting produced a hold in an 8-1 vote.

Governor Ueda has categorised the March meeting as "live," noting the timeline for further tightening could be "brought forward" if Shunto spring wage negotiations yield stronger-than-expected results. 

Those results are due to begin flowing in during the week, making them the critical input for the BOJ's decision. Nomura expects 2026 Shunto wage hikes to come in around 5.0%, including seniority, with base pay growth of approximately 3.4%. If results confirm that trajectory, the case for a March hike strengthens considerably.

The complication is the global backdrop. Japan imports roughly 90% of its energy needs, and oil around US$100 per barrel is pushing up import costs and threatening to add inflationary pressure. A BOJ hike into a global oil shock would be an unusually bold move. 

Most market participants still lean toward a hold at this meeting, with April or July seen as the more likely timing for the next move.

Key Date

• BOJ Policy Rate Decision (currently 0.75%): Thursday 19 March, morning AEDT

Monitor

• Shunto wage results as the primary trigger for a March hike.
• Ueda press conference language and forward guidance on April and July.
• USD/JPY reaction.

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Oil: Continued volatility

Brent crude briefly touched US$119.50 per barrel earlier in the week before dropping 17% to below US$80, then rebounding toward US$95 on mixed signals from Washington about the Strait of Hormuz. 

As of Thursday, Brent was back over US$100 as Iran launched fresh attacks on commercial shipping and the IEA reserve release failed to bring meaningful relief.

In the scenario where a longer conflict inflicts damage to energy infrastructure, analysts estimate CPI could rise to 3.5% by the end of 2026, with gasoline prices approaching US$5 per gallon in the second quarter.

For this week, oil acts as a macro meta-variable. Every geopolitical headline, ceasefire signal, tanker attack, reserve release, and Trump comment could move equities, bonds and currencies in real time.

Monitor

• Any resumed Strait of Hormuz tanker flow.
• IEA emergency reserve release.
• Trump statements on Iran.
• Energy sector equities.

7 global commodity stocks to watch as the Iran war reshapes markets

US-Israeli strikes on Iran launched on 28 February sent Brent crude surging past US$119 a barrel, gold above US$5,200, and defence stocks to all-time highs.

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Against that backdrop, investors are focusing on a small group of commodity-linked names that may remain sensitive to further moves in oil, LNG and gold. The key question is whether the shock proves sustained, or whether a ceasefire, shipping normalisation, or policy action removes part of the geopolitical risk premium.

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1. ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM)

ExxonMobil has been one of the clearest beneficiaries of the price surge. Shares hit a record high of US$159.60 in early March and are up approximately 28% year-to-date. 

The company produces 4.7 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, has a Permian Basin breakeven of around US$35/barrel, and is committed to US$20 billion in buybacks for 2026.

Wells Fargo raised its price target to US$183 from US$156 following the escalation, while broader analyst consensus sits around US$140–$144. However, XOM is already trading above many consensus targets, and disruption to its LNG partner QatarEnergy poses a near-term operational headwind.

What to watch

• Whether Hormuz disruptions persist beyond 4–6 weeks.
• A G7 emergency stockpile release or a credible ceasefire could compress the war risk premium.
• Any adjustments to analyst consensus targets.

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What rising oil prices mean for Exxon

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2. Chevron (NYSE: CVX)

Chevron touched a new 52-week high of US$196.76 in early March and has risen approximately 24% year-to-date. 

The company's Brent breakeven for dividends and capital expenditure sits around US$50/barrel. This means that at current Oil prices above US$90, it is generating significant free cash flow.

However, Chevron has temporarily halted operations at a gas field off Israel's coast following missile activity in the region, and the stock has since pulled back more than 1% as the conflict directly affects its operations.

What to watch

• Direct operational updates from Chevron's Middle East and Israeli assets.
• Any further halts that could weigh on near-term production. 
• Crude holding above US$90, which keeps Chevron generating significant free cash flow.

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3. Woodside Energy (ASX: WDS/NYSE: WDS)

With Qatar having halted output after Iranian drone strikes, buyers across Asia and Europe are scrambling for alternative supply. Woodside, as one of Australia's largest LNG producers and exporters, sits outside the conflict zone and is well-positioned to benefit from rerouted demand.

Analysts caution that actual substitution takes time due to shipping and contract constraints, meaning the price uplift may be more durable than a simple spot trade. European TTF benchmark gas prices surged over 50% in a week, amplifying the margin environment for non-Middle Eastern LNG producers.

What to watch

• The pace and timeline of any Qatar LNG production restart.
• If QatarEnergy remains offline for weeks, Woodside could begin re-contracting European buyers at elevated spot prices.
• An Australian dollar move higher could be a headwind worth tracking for USD-denominated earnings.

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4. Cheniere Energy (NYSE: LNG)

Alongside Woodside, Cheniere is the most direct US beneficiary of the Qatar LNG disruption. As the largest LNG exporter in the United States, it saw intraday strength at the start of the conflict week. 

US domestic energy production has buffered American consumers from the worst of the shock, but the export premium has widened as European and Asian buyers pay up for non-Gulf supply.

The trade is "geopolitically sensitive," and any resolution could reverse upside quickly. But for as long as Hormuz and Gulf gas infrastructure remain compromised, Cheniere is positioned to benefit structurally.

What to watch

• Any diplomatic breakthrough that reopens Gulf shipping lanes. 
• Announcements of new long-term offtake contracts signed at current elevated prices.

Find more statistics at  Statista

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5. Newmont Corporation (NYSE: NEM)

Gold surged 5.2% in a single session on 1 March, touching US$5,246/oz, as markets sought safe-haven assets. Newmont, the world's largest gold producer, has seen its reserves effectively revalued at these prices. 

It is up alongside gold's 24% year-to-date gain, and its all-in sustaining costs remain largely fixed.

However, Gold miners sold off sharply on 4 March, and Newmont fell nearly 8% in a single session as broader risk-off deleveraging hit precious metals equities. 

The stock has recovered since, but volatility remains high. For longer-duration investors, analysts note that "safe" mining jurisdictions such as Canada, Australia, and Nevada are commanding fresh premiums as Middle East instability raises the value of geopolitically secure supply.

What to watch

• Whether gold can hold above US$5,000/oz. 
• A prolonged conflict could accelerate an M&A cycle in junior gold miners. 
• A ceasefire or broad equity deleveraging event as the primary risk to monitor.

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6. Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT)

Lockheed Martin reached a new all-time high of US$676.70 on 3 March, up over 4% for the day. Its F-35 fighters, precision-guided munitions, THAAD systems, and HIMARS rocket artillery are central to the ongoing air campaign. 

The US Department of Defence is moving to replenish munitions stockpiles, and Trump's stated ambition to raise the US defence budget to US$1.5 trillion by 2027 adds a longer-term structural tailwind beyond the immediate conflict.

Defence stocks are rising amid classic geopolitical risk pricing, but investors should note that actual contract flow takes time to translate into earnings, and valuations already reflect considerable optimism. 

What to watch

• The pace of US Department of Defence munitions replenishment orders.
• How quickly contract wins translate into backlog growth.

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Top defence stocks to watch: Iran winners and losers

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7. Barrick Gold (NYSE: GOLD)

Barrick is tracking gold's historic run alongside Newmont, with the stock up sharply year-to-date. It sits at a roughly US$78 billion market capitalisation and is reporting record free cash flow projections as its all-in sustaining costs remain well below current spot prices. 

Like Newmont, it experienced a sharp single-session selloff of more than 8% during the broader 4 March deleveraging event, before partially recovering.

Royalty and streaming companies such as Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) are being favoured by some investors as a more inflation-protected way to access gold upside, given their lower operational cost exposure. But Barrick remains one of the world’s largest listed gold miners, with earnings that are highly sensitive to changes in the gold price

What to watch

• Gold's ability to hold above US$5,000/oz. 
• Any Barrick moves toward junior miner acquisitions.
• Energy cost inflation, as rising fuel prices could begin to squeeze miner operating margins.

Oil prices tend to rise when demand is strong, supply is constrained or geopolitical events disrupt normal trade flows. In this case, the US and Israel appeared to act pre-emptively in what they saw as a defensive move. The broader market impact has been felt more widely.

When oil prices move, they rarely move in isolation. Higher crude prices can affect inflation, central bank expectations, shipping costs and corporate margins across the global economy.

What is happening

There are three broad ways companies can benefit from higher oil prices:

1. Producing oil and gas, by selling the commodity at a higher price
2. Providing services and equipment to producers
3. Transporting oil around the world

Each of the stocks below represents one of those exposure types, with a different risk profile when crude climbs.

1. Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM)

Exxon Mobil is one of the world’s largest integrated oil companies, involved in everything from exploring for and producing oil to refining it into fuel and producing chemicals. When oil prices rise, its upstream business may benefit from wider margins, while its size and diversification can help cushion weaker spots in the cycle.

Exxon has major positions in growth regions such as the US Permian Basin and large offshore projects, which are designed to deliver relatively low-cost barrels over many years. When prices are high, low-cost production may support free cash flow and the company’s capacity for dividends, buybacks or further investment.

Exxon Mobil (XOM) vs. Brent Crude 6-month performance

Consensus: Buy

According to TradingView, analyst sentiment towards Exxon is broadly positive, with a consensus Buy rating. Of the 31 analysts tracked, 15 rate the stock as Strong Buy or Buy, while 13 rate it Hold.

The positive view is linked to Exxon’s balance sheet strength and higher-margin production, with the most optimistic analysts projecting a 1-year price target as high as US$183.00. However, a small minority of 3 analysts has issued a Sell or Strong Sell rating, contributing to an average price target of US$145.00, which sits about 3.6% below the current trading price.

2. Chevron (NYSE: CVX)

Chevron is another global integrated major that has benefited from the recent move higher in crude, with its shares trading near 52-week highs. Like Exxon, Chevron operates across the value chain, including upstream production, refining and marketing. Chevron’s completed acquisition of Hess adds Guyana and other upstream assets, which some analysts see as supportive over time, although the earnings impact remains subject to integration, project execution and commodity-price risks.

In an environment where oil and gas prices can be volatile, that diversification may help smooth earnings while still providing leverage to stronger energy prices.

Exxon Mobil vs Chevron performance, 6-month chart

Consensus: Buy

Chevron is viewed similarly to Exxon, with broker sentiment remaining broadly constructive. Recent TradingView aggregates show 30 analysts covering the stock over the past three months, with 17 rating it Strong Buy or Buy, 11 at Hold, 1 at Sell and 1 at Strong Sell. Analysts have highlighted its diversified portfolio and the potential contribution from Hess, although commodity-price volatility and execution risks may keep some more cautious.

3. SLB (NYSE: SLB)

Higher oil prices do not only affect producers. In this case, SLB (formerly Schlumberger) is one of the world’s largest oilfield services companies, providing technology, equipment and services that help producers find and extract hydrocarbons more efficiently. When crude trends higher, producers may increase drilling and completion activity, which can lift demand for SLB’s services and software. Recent commentary has also pointed to the company’s growing digital business and global exposure, which may support earnings growth if the upcycle continues.

Consensus: Buy

According to TradingView, analyst consensus on SLB is Buy, indicating broadly positive sentiment. Of the 33 analysts tracked, 27 rate the stock Strong Buy or Buy, while 4 rate it Hold and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell.

Analyst sentiment appears to reflect expectations around SLB’s position as a broader technology partner. The average price target of US$55.71 implies 15.8% upside from current levels, while the highest target stands at US$74.00. These forecasts appear to be linked to expectations of increased international drilling activity and a recovery in offshore deepwater markets.

4. Baker Hughes (NYSE: BKR)

Baker Hughes is another major oilfield services and equipment provider, with additional exposure to industrial segments such as LNG and power infrastructure. Even when oil prices are not at extreme highs, advances in drilling technology and lower break-even costs have helped keep many shale plays profitable, supporting demand for its services.  

The company has been described as well positioned because of its balance sheet and its exposure to ongoing exploration and production activity. In a period of higher, or even stable-to-firm, oil prices, that mix of services and energy technology may create several revenue drivers.

Consensus: Strong Buy

Broker sentiment towards Baker Hughes is broadly positive, similar to SLB. More than 75% of covering analysts rate the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy, with the remainder generally at Hold. Analysts have pointed to its exposure to both traditional oilfield services and energy and industrial technology, including LNG infrastructure.

[CHART]

Transport and shipping exposure

5. Global oil tanker operators

Oil tanker companies can benefit when higher prices, OPEC+ policy shifts and geopolitical tensions increase long-distance shipments and disrupt usual routes.

Recent reports have pointed to stronger freight rates and high volumes of oil in transit, as increased production from the Middle East and supply growth from the US, Brazil, Guyana and Canada flow towards Asian markets. That ‘tonne-mile’ demand may support tanker day rates and profitability even when the broader energy market is volatile.

Consensus: N/A

This is a broader industry category rather than a single publicly traded stock, so there is no single broker consensus for it. Analyst views would need to be assessed at the company level, such as Frontline plc (FRO), Euronav (EURN) or Scorpio Tankers (STNG). More broadly, the sector is often viewed as cyclical, although current conditions may support freight rates when geopolitical disruptions lengthen shipping routes.

6. Woodside Energy (ASX: WDS)

Woodside adds an Australia-based name with global LNG and oil exposure. Its 2024 full-year results showed underlying profit down 13%, primarily because of lower realised oil and gas prices, according to the company’s full-year results announcement. That highlights how sensitive earnings can be to commodity price realisation.

If crude and related energy prices strengthen, Woodside’s earnings outlook may improve, although the extent of that change will still depend on company-specific factors and realised pricing.

Consensus: Hold

In contrast to the larger US majors, broker sentiment towards this Australian-based producer is more cautious, with consensus generally at Hold. Most analysts favour maintaining existing positions rather than increasing exposure. That more measured view is often linked to its LNG pricing exposure, softer realised commodity prices and longer-term regulatory and decarbonisation pressures.

[CHART]

Risks and constraints

Higher oil prices are not a free ride for these stocks.

• If prices spike too far, too fast, they may trigger demand destruction and policy responses that weigh on future profits.  
• Political decisions from OPEC+ or major producers mau reverse a rally by increasing supply.  
• Services and tanker companies are highly cyclical. When the cycle turns, pricing power can fade quickly.

In other words, these names may benefit from higher oil prices, but they also carry sector-specific, geopolitical and company-level risks that deserve close attention.

Key market observations

• Higher oil prices often support integrated majors such as Exxon and Chevron through stronger upstream margins and diversified cash flows.
• Oilfield services stocks such as SLB and Baker Hughes may see stronger demand when producers increase drilling and completion activity.
• Tanker operators may benefit from higher freight rates when geopolitics and supply shifts increase long-haul shipments.  
• These stocks can be volatile, so diversification and time horizon remain important during commodity upcycles.

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^{References in this article to Exxon Mobil, Chevron, SLB, Baker Hughes, Woodside, tanker operators, analyst consensus ratings and price targets are included for general market commentary only and do not constitute a recommendation or offer in relation to any financial product or security. Third-party data, including consensus ratings and target prices, may change without notice and should not be relied on in isolation. Energy and shipping exposures are cyclical and can be materially affected by commodity price volatility, realised pricing, production changes, project execution, geopolitical disruptions, freight market conditions, regulatory developments and shifts in investor sentiment. Any views about potential beneficiaries of higher oil prices are subject to significant uncertainty.}

Oil smashed US$100 a barrel as US-Israeli strikes on Iran shut down the Strait of Hormuz, triggering the biggest single-day crude spike since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. 

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Quick facts

• Brent Crude intraday peak: US$119.50/bbl (up ~50% in 10 days)
• Reported vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell to <20% of average
• Analysts estimate up to ~20% of global seaborne oil flows could be affected if disruption persists (largest since the 1956 Suez Crisis)

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Why have oil prices spiked?

Oil markets woke up on 9 March 2026 to joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian oil depots that sent Brent crude to an intraday peak of US$119.50 a barrel (its highest level since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war) before settling back near US$90.

Iran's Revolutionary Guard has threatened to target any tanker transiting the Strait of Hormuz, collapsing vessel traffic to near-zero. 

The strait carries roughly 20% of the world's daily seaborne oil supply, and analysts are describing the disruption as the largest since the Suez Crisis of 1956–57. Crude had already risen around 16% in the week before the strikes as markets priced in escalating tensions.

Middle East escalation: oil, VIX and volatility scenarios

ExxonMobil's chief economist, Tyler Goodspeed, has said the distribution of probable outcomes skews heavily toward the Strait remaining effectively closed for longer than markets currently expect. 

Meanwhile, Donald Trump has played down the need to release strategic petroleum reserves, calling any short-term price pain a small cost for global safety. The G7 is discussing a coordinated SPR release, which briefly pulled prices back toward US$110 before late-session trading moved them lower on fresh Trump commentary about a potentially “swift end” to the conflict.

Biggest single day crude oil spike since 2022 | TradingView

Market Reaction

The ASX response has been sharply split. The broader ASX 200 fell as investors priced in inflation and potential demand destruction, with materials stocks like BHP sinking close to 6%. Energy was the only sector in the green. The IMF estimates that every sustained 10% rise in oil prices adds 0.4% to global inflation and reduces global growth by 0.15%.

If oil holds above US$100 for an extended period, recession risk in major importing economies could rise materially. ASX energy investors are navigating a world where the same tailwind for producers could become a headwind for global demand.

S&P/ASX 200 vs S&P/ASX 200 Energy Index | TradingView

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Top 5 ASX energy stocks to watch

1. Woodside Energy Group (ASX: WDS)

Woodside is Australia’s largest listed oil and gas producer and is often closely watched when energy prices rise. Woodside operates Pluto LNG in the Pilbara with a 90% stake, the North West Shelf LNG project, and a growing international portfolio. Shares hit a fresh 52-week high and have risen 33% since January.

Fully franked dividends add yield support; the company recently paid an 83.4-cent-per-share final dividend. For cautious investors, Woodside is a potential entry point in the sector right now.

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2. Santos Ltd (ASX: STO)

Santos is the ASX's second-largest oil and gas producer with a market cap of nearly A$23 billion, and it offers a compelling production growth story on top of the price tailwind. 

The Barossa gas project shipped its first LNG cargo in January 2026, and production is expected to grow around 30% by 2027 as Barossa and the Pikka project in Alaska ramp up together. 

CEO Kevin Gallagher sold A$5.6 million in stock in late February to cover personal tax obligations, which some investors have flagged as a caution signal, but the growth fundamentals remain intact.

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3. Karoon Energy (ASX: KAR)

A mid-cap pure-play oil producer with 100% interests in the Bauna and Patola offshore oil fields in Brazil's Santos Basin, plus the Who Dat assets in the Gulf of Mexico, it was the biggest mover on the entire ASX 200 in recent sessions.

With a market cap near A$1.25 billion and a Price to Earnings (P/E) ratio of 7, the stock is extraordinarily sensitive to oil price movements. Karoon generated a free cash flow margin of approximately 45% against a base case of US$65 per barrel. At current prices, the cash flow profile could improve dramatically. 

A new dividend of A$0.031 per share has been declared alongside 2026 production guidance. The risk is symmetrical: if the war premium fades and oil drifts back toward the mid-US$60s, the pullback could be as sharp as the rally. 

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4. Ampol Ltd (ASX: ALD)

Ampol is Australia's largest integrated fuel company, operating the Lytton oil refinery in Brisbane alongside a national fuel retail and distribution network and Z Energy in New Zealand. 

Higher oil prices are a double-edged sword for Ampol. They improve crude inventory value and refining margins, but can compress consumer demand over time. 

A planned A$1.1 billion acquisition of EG Australia's fuel and convenience network adds a structural growth catalyst independent of the oil price. A 100%-franked trailing yield of 3.2% could also provide income support.

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5. Beach Energy (ASX: BPT)

Beach Energy has underperformed the broader ASX energy sector over the past year, weighed down by reserve replacement challenges and a difficult recent earnings period. 

However, the company beat half-year FY2026 estimates by 13.5%, and management maintained full-year production guidance of 19.7–22.0 million barrels of oil equivalent. 

Beach's asset base spans the Cooper and Eromanga Basins, the Otway Basin, the Perth Basin's Waitsia LNG export project, and New Zealand. 

A 6.1% dividend yield with a payment due in March 2026, and the stock's low beta of 0.20 means it could offer materially less volatility than peers. 

CEO Brett Woods has flagged M&A interest in East Coast gas assets and a target of 35% emissions intensity reduction by 2030. A sustained high-oil environment could arrest Beach's production decline trend.

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What to watch next

Energy markets are moving on fear and geopolitics rather than fundamentals, which means the trade can reverse as fast as it started. The key question is whether this is a brief war premium or the start of a sustained structural disruption.

A prolonged Hormuz closure could push Brent even higher and keep ASX energy stocks elevated. A swift diplomatic resolution or coordinated G7 SPR release could snap oil back downwards and reverse much of the recent move. 

Sitting over both scenarios is the question of recession: if oil holds above US$100 for six to eight weeks, markets may begin pricing in central bank responses and demand destruction, which could ultimately weigh on the Energy sector that is outperforming today.

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US inflation data on Wednesday is the week's centrepiece, but with oil nearing seven-month highs, Bitcoin (BTC) sentiment shifting, and the Australian dollar at three-year highs, traders have plenty to navigate in the week ahead.

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Quick Facts

• US inflation rate (February) is the key binary event for rate cut pricing and equity direction.
• Brent crude is trading around US$82–84/bbl, near seven-month highs, with a $4–$10 geopolitical risk premium baked in from Iran/Hormuz tensions.
• Bitcoin is trading above US$70,000 as of 6 March, a potential trend change if it holds through the week.

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United States: inflation in focus

Last month’s US inflation reading showed prices rising 2.4% year-on-year, still well above the Fed's 2% target. 

February's inflation rate, due Wednesday, will be scrutinised for signs that tariff pass-through or rising energy costs are pushing prices back up, or whether the slow grind lower is still intact.

The March FOMC meeting on 17–18 March is now priced at only an 4.7% probability of a cut. A higher-than-expected inflation print this week could potentially push rate cut expectations further out.

A softer read opens the door to renewed cut pricing and potential relief across risk assets.

Key Dates

• US Inflation Rate (February CPI): Wednesday 11 March, 12:30 am (AEDT)

Monitor

• Core vs. headline inflation divergence as evidence of tariff pass-through in goods prices.
• 2-year and 10-year treasury yield sensitivity to the print.
• USD direction and FedWatch repricing in the lead up to the 18 March FOMC decision.

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Oil: elevated and event-sensitive

Brent is currently trading around US$83–85 per barrel, with a 52-week range spanning $58.40 to $85.12, reflecting the dramatic move triggered by the Middle East conflict. 

Analysts estimate the geopolitical risk premium already baked into oil at US$4–$10 per barrel, and average 2026 Brent forecasts have been lifted to US$63.85/bbl, up from US$62.02 in January. 

The EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts Brent to average $58/bbl in 2026, well below the current spot price. 

The gap between spot and the forecast baseline could be a useful frame for traders this week: any de-escalation signal from the Middle East could rapidly close that gap.

Monitor

• Strait of Hormuz developments and any diplomatic signals from Iran nuclear talks.
• EIA weekly oil inventory data.
• Oil's knock-on to inflation expectations and whether it shifts central bank posture.
• Energy sector equity performance relative to the broader market.

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Bitcoin: sentiment watch

BTC has been attempting to stabilise after a brutal 53% correction over the past 17 weeks, fuelled by escalating geopolitical tensions and renewed tariff concerns.

However, yesterday saw a 8% jump back above $72,000, and the crypto “fear and greed index” jumped up to 29 (fear), up from below 20 (extreme fear), where it has been sitting for over a month, indicating a potential sentiment shift.

A cooler-than-expected US inflation print on Wednesday could provide further fuel for the breakout; a hot print risks potentially pulling BTC back below the US$70,000 level it has just reclaimed.

Monitor

• Inflation print reaction on Wednesday as the primary macro catalyst for the move.
• Any rotation into altcoins following BTC strength.
• ETF inflow/outflow data as confirmation of institutional participation.

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AUD/USD: Hawkish RBA meets geopolitical crosswinds

The Aussie is trading near more than three-year highs and heading for its fourth consecutive monthly gain, up more than 6% year-to-date, making it the top-performing G10 currency in 2026. 

The driver is a clear policy divergence. RBA Governor Michele Bullock signalled the March policy meeting is "live" for a possible rate increase, and warned that an oil price shock from Iran tensions could reignite domestic inflationary pressures. 

Market pricing now suggests around a 28% chance of a 25bp hike at the upcoming meeting, while fully pricing in tightening through May, and around a 75% chance of another increase to 4.35% by year-end. 

This hawkish read, set against a Fed on hold and facing dovish political pressure, creates a potential structural tailwind for the Aussie.

Monitor

• AUD/USD reaction to Wednesday's US inflation data.
• RBA rate hike probability repricing through the week.
• Iron ore and commodity prices as secondary AUD drivers.
• China demand signals, given Australia's export exposure.

Latin America (LATAM) saw over $730 billion in crypto volume in 2025, a 60% year-on-year surge that made the region responsible for roughly 10% of global crypto activity. 

In 2026, institutional players are starting to take the region seriously, regulation is crystallising, and the structural drivers from 2025 show no sign of fading. But the region is not a single story, and 2026 will test whether the current momentum is built on solid fundamentals or speculative optimism.

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Quick facts

• LATAM monthly active crypto users grew 18% year-on-year (YoY), three times faster than the US.
• Argentina reached 12% monthly active user penetration, accounting for over a quarter of the region's crypto activity.
• Over 90% of Brazilian crypto flows are now stablecoin-related.
• Three LATAM countries rank in the global top 20: Brazil (5th), Venezuela (18th), Argentina (20th).
• Peru's crypto app downloads grew 50% in 2025, with 2.9 million downloads.

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From survival tool to financial infrastructure

Latin America did not embrace cryptocurrency because of speculation. It embraced it because traditional financial systems repeatedly failed ordinary people. Over the past 15 years, average annual inflation across the region's five largest economies ran at 13%, compared to just 2.3% in the US over the same period.

In Venezuela, it reached 65,000% in a single year. In Argentina, it exceeded 220% in 2024. For millions of people, holding savings in local currency was a slow act of self-destruction. Stablecoins became the natural response. Digital assets pegged to the US dollar offered a reliable store of value, borderless transferability, and access without a bank account. 

Unlike in the West, where crypto is seen more as a speculative instrument, in LATAM it has become a necessary financial tool. However, adoption drivers are not entirely uniform across the region. Brazil and Mexico are institutional stories, driven by regulated market participation and established financial players. 

Argentina and Venezuela remain store-of-value plays, with crypto serving as a direct hedge against fiat collapse. And Peru and Colombia are more yield-seeking markets, where crypto offers returns that traditional savings accounts cannot match. 

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How fast is LATAM adopting crypto?

LATAM’s on-chain crypto volume rose 60% year-on-year in 2025. The region has recorded nearly $1.5 trillion in cumulative volume since mid-2022, peaking at a record $87.7 billion in a single month in December 2024.

Monthly active crypto users across LATAM also grew 18% in 2025, three times faster than the US.

Stablecoins are the primary vehicle driving this adoption. Of the $730 billion received in 2025, $324 billion moved through stablecoin transactions, an 89% year-on-year surge. In Brazil, over 90% of all crypto flows are stablecoin-related, and in Argentina, stablecoins account for over 60% of activity. 

Looking ahead, the Latin America cryptocurrency market is forecast to reach $442.6 billion by 2033, growing at a compound annual rate of 10.93% from 2025, according to IMARC Group. 

For traders, the speed of adoption matters less as a headline than what is driving it: a region of 650 million people building parallel financial infrastructure in real time, with stablecoins as the foundation.

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The institutional turn

For most of LATAM’s crypto history, adoption was bottom-up. Unbanked or underbanked retail users drove volumes through local exchanges. That picture is now changing at the top end of the market.

In February 2026, Crypto Finance Group, part of the leading global exchange operator Deutsche Börse Group, announced its expansion into Latin America, targeting banks, asset managers, and financial intermediaries seeking institutional-grade custody and trading infrastructure. 

Traditional banks and fintechs are following suit. Nubank now rewards customers for holding USDC. Brazil's B3 exchange approved the world's first spot XRP and SOL ETFs, ahead of the US, in 2025. Centralised exchanges, including Mercado Bitcoin, NovaDAX, and Binance, have collectively listed over 200 new BRL-denominated trading pairs since early 2024.

In March 2025, Brazilian fintech Meliuz became the first publicly traded company in the country to launch a Bitcoin accumulation strategy, now holding 320 BTC.

“Crypto adoption in LatAm is already global-scale. What the market needs now is institutional-grade governance, and that’s exactly why we’re here,” — Stijn Vander Straeten, CEO of Crypto Finance Group

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Crypto remittance use case

Latin America receives hundreds of billions of dollars annually from workers abroad, making remittances one of the most concrete and measurable crypto use cases in the region. Traditional transfer services charge an average of 6.2% per transaction. On a US$300 transfer, that is roughly US$20 in fees.

Blockchain-based infrastructure more broadly offers dramatic fee reductions. Bitcoin brings costs to around US$3.12 per US$100 transferred. While cheaper alternatives like XRP or Ethereum layer-2 infrastructure can reduce that to less than US$0.01.

For a migrant worker sending US$1,500 home to Peru, switching from a legacy bank saves more than the average Peruvian weekly wage in fees alone.

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LATAM’s crypto regulatory environment

The variable that will most determine whether LATAM  lives up to its 2026 potential is crypto regulation. And here, the picture is genuinely mixed.

Brazil leads the region with its Virtual Assets Law, which covers asset segregation, VASP licensing, AML/KYC requirements, and capital standards. It also implemented the Travel Rule for domestic VASP transfers, which came into force in February 2026. However, some more controversial proposals, including a US$100,000 cap on cross-border stablecoin transactions and a ban on self-custody wallet transfers, remain under active consultation.

Mexico's 2018 Fintech Law remains one of the world's earliest formal recognitions of virtual assets. Chile's 2023 Fintech Law established licences for exchanges, wallets, and stablecoin issuers, formally recognising digital assets as 'digital money.' 

Bolivia reversed a decade-long crypto ban in June 2024 by authorising regulated digital asset transactions. Argentina introduced mandatory exchange registration in 2025. And El Salvador continues to expand tokenised economic initiatives despite removing Bitcoin's legal tender status.

Ten countries across the region now have formal crypto frameworks of some kind. But for traders, regulatory divergence remains a live risk, and given Brazil receiving nearly one-third of all LATAM crypto volume, any significant policy reversal there could have outsized consequences.

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What traders should watch

Brazil's institutional momentum is the most significant structural trend. With $318.8 billion in on-chain volume in 2025, Brazil effectively is the LATAM market. 

The outcome of the Brazil stablecoin consultation could have a big influence. A restriction on foreign stablecoins in domestic payments would directly impact the most traded asset class in the region's dominant market. 

Argentina is the volatility play. Monthly active user penetration of 12% and 5.4 million crypto app downloads in 2025 signal deep and growing retail engagement. 

Colombia is an early-warning market to watch. The peso's 5.3% depreciation in 2025 and deepening fiscal crisis are driving stablecoin inflows in a pattern that mirrors Argentina's trajectory in earlier years. If Colombia's macro situation deteriorates further, crypto adoption could accelerate.

There is also an exchange concentration risk at play. Binance crypto exchange is the primary exchange for over 50% of LATAM crypto users. If the exchange faces any regulatory action, operational disruption, or competitive shock, it could have an outsized market impact.

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Bottom line

Latin America's crypto market has entered a new phase. The structural drivers that caused initial crypto-demand in the region have not gone away: inflation, remittances, financial exclusion, and currency instability are all still at play.

What has changed is the layer being built on top of them. Institutional infrastructure, regulatory frameworks, corporate treasury adoption, and global exchange capital flowing into a region that was, until recently, largely self-contained. 

Brazil's near-250% volume growth in 2025 and its position receiving nearly one-third of all LATAM crypto are the defining market developments. Its regulatory trajectory, stablecoin policy decisions, and ETF pipeline will effectively set the tone for the region in 2026. 

For traders, the headline growth figures are real, but so are the concentration risks, regulatory uncertainties, and country-level divergences that sit beneath them.

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