US mid terms loom as a potential catalyst for equities.
GO Markets
4/11/2022
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The US midterm elections are coming up next week on 8 November and have the potential to have a big say on the direction and volatility of the US and global markets. All the 435 seats in the House of representatives will be decided upon. Currently, the makeup of the house includes 220 Democrats, 212 republicans and 3 vacant seats.
The senate is just as intriguing with the senate essentially split 50 – 50, with the Democrats having the support of 2 independents. This means that Vice President, Kamala Harris has the deciding opinion on bills that get put forward. It also means that the Republicans only need one more seat to take control of the senate.
This is crucial because it means if the Republicans take control, then bills put forward by Democrats will face a much tougher road to turn into law. It is also possible that the Republicans could take both the senate and the house of representatives which would make it almost impossible for the Democrats and Joe Biden to pass any legislation. Impact on the Markets When US elections occur, there tends to be a decrease in performance before the election and increase in volatility around the US markets.
After the election there is usually a period of growth for equities. The issue at the forefront of all American’s minds is still inflation and the new government will deal with it. A major impact on the economy may be the government’s ability to deal with issues surrounding the economy such as inflation, a recession, or other fiscal matters.
For instance, a gridlocked congress will restrict the President’s ability come up with policies that the Republicans will ok. The president may have to resort to using Executive orders which are more limited in scope and done without support of congress. More responsibility might be taken by the Federal Reserve to loosen monetary policy to fight a potential recession without fiscal support.
This bodes well for the equities market and dampen some of the strength of the US dollar. From a more ideological perspective, Biden’s push for environmental and sustainability reform. Biden and the democrats have pushed forward policies that have supported these developments.
Therefore, money flow away from these sectors if that support gets pushed away. Ultimately, the midterm elections will likely have some effect on both the direction and volatility of the market. A swing towards the Republicans may see a shift in volatility and sentiment across the economy.
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GO Markets
Disclaimer: Articles are from GO Markets analysts and contributors and are based on their independent analysis or personal experiences. Views, opinions or trading styles expressed are their own, and should not be taken as either representative of or shared by GO Markets. Advice, if any, is of a ‘general’ nature and not based on your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Consider how appropriate the advice, if any, is to your objectives, financial situation and needs, before acting on the advice. If the advice relates to acquiring a particular financial product, you should obtain our Disclosure Statement (DS) and other legal documents available on our website for that product before making any decisions.
Asia starts the week with a fresh geopolitical shock that is already being framed in oil terms, not just security terms. The first-order move may be a repricing of risk premia and volatility across energy and macro, while markets wait to see whether this becomes a durable physical disruption or a fast-fading headline premium.
At a glance
What happened: US officials said the US carried out “Operation Absolute Resolve”, including strikes around Caracas, and that Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro and his wife were taken into US custody and flown to the United States (subject to ongoing verification against the cited reporting).
What markets may focus on now: Headline-driven risk premia and volatility, especially in products and heavy-crude-sensitive spreads, rather than a clean “missing barrels” shock.
What is not happening yet: Early pricing has so far looked more like a headline risk premium than a confirmed physical supply shock, though this can change quickly, with analysts pointing to ample global supply as a possible cap on sustained upside.
Next 24 to 72 hours: Market participants are likely to focus on the shape of the oil “quarantine”, the UN track, and whether this stays “one and done” or becomes open-ended.
Australia and Asia hook: AUD as a risk barometer, Asia refinery margins in diesel and heavy, and shipping and insurance where the price can show up in friction before it shows up in benchmarks.
What happened, facts fast
Before anyone had time to workshop the talking points, there were strikes, there was a raid, and there was a custody transfer. US officials say the operation culminated in Maduro and his wife being flown to the United States, where court proceedings are expected.
Then came the line that turned a foreign policy story into a markets story. President Trump publicly suggested the US would “run” Venezuela for now, explicitly tying the mission to oil.
Almost immediately after that came a message-discipline correction. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the US would not govern Venezuela day to day, but would press for changes through an oil “quarantine” or blockade.
That tension, between maximalist presidential rhetoric and a more bureaucratically describable “quarantine”, is where the uncertainty lives. Uncertainty is what gets priced first.
Source: Adobe images
Why this is price relevant now
What’s new versus known for positioning
What’s new, and price relevant, is that the scale and outcome are not incremental. A major military operation, a claimed removal of Venezuela’s leadership from the country, and a US-led custody transfer are not the sort of things markets can safely treat as noise.
Second, the oil framing is explicit. Even if you assume the language gets sanded down later, the stated lever is petroleum. Flows, enforcement, and pressure via exports.
Third, the embargo is not just a talking point anymore. Reporting says PDVSA has begun asking some joint ventures to cut output because exports have been halted and storage is tightening, with heavy-crude and diluent constraints featuring prominently.
What’s still unknown, and where volatility comes from
Key unknowns include how strict enforcement is on water, what exemptions look like in practice, how stable the on-the-ground situation is, and which countries recognise what comes next. Those are not philosophical questions. Those are the inputs for whether this is a temporary risk premium or a durable regime shift.
Political and legal reaction, why this drives tail risk
The fastest way to understand the tail here is to watch who calls this illegal, and who calls it effective, then ask what those camps can actually do.
Internationally, reaction has been fast, with emphasis on international law and the UN Charter from key partners, and UN processes in view. In the US, lawmakers and commentators have begun debating the legal basis, including questions of authority and war powers. That matters for markets because it helps define whether this is a finite operation with an aftershock, or the opening chapter of a rolling policy regime that keeps generating headlines.
Market mechanism, the core “so what”
Here’s the key thing about oil shocks. Sometimes the headline is the shock. Sometimes the plumbing is the shock.
Venezuela’s heavy-crude system: Orinoco production, key pipelines, and export/refining bottlenecks.
Volumes and cushion
Venezuela is not the world’s swing producer. Its production is meaningful at the margin, but not enough by itself to imply “the world runs out of oil tomorrow”. The risk is not just volume. It is duration, disruption, and friction.
The market’s mental brake is spare capacity and the broader supply backdrop. Reporting over the weekend pointed to ample global supply as a likely cap on sustained gains, even as prices respond to risk.
Quality and transmission
Venezuela’s barrels are disproportionately extra heavy, and extra heavy crude is not just “oil”. It is oil that often needs diluent or condensate to move and process. That is exactly the kind of constraint that shows up as grade-specific tightness and product effects.
Reporting has highlighted diluent constraints and storage pressure as exports stall. Translation: even if Brent stays relatively civil, watch cracks, diesel and distillates, and any signals that “heavy substitution” is getting expensive.
Heavy-light spread as a stress gauge: rising differentials can signal costly substitution and tighter heavy supply.
Products transmission, volatility first, pump later
If crude is the headline, products are the receipt, because products tell you what refiners can actually do with the crude they can actually get. The short-run pattern is usually: futures reprice risk fast, implied volatility pops; physical flows adapt more slowly; retail follows with a lag, and often with less drama than the first weekend of commentary promised.
For Australia and Asia desks, the bigger point is transmission. Energy moves can influence inflation expectations, which can feed into rates pricing and the dollar, and in turn affect Asia FX and broader risk, though the links are not mechanical and can vary by regime.
Some market participants also monitor refined-product benchmarks, including gasoline contracts such as reformulated gasoline blendstock, as part of that chain rather than as a stand-alone signal.
Historical context, the two patterns that matter
Two patterns matter more than any single episode.
Pattern A: scare premium. Big headline, limited lasting outage. A spike, then a fade as the market decides the plumbing still works.
Pattern B: structural. Real barrels are lost or restrictions lock in; the forward curve reprices; the premium migrates from front-month drama to whole-curve reality.
One commonly observed pattern is that when it is only premium, volatility tends to spike more than price. When it is structural, levels and time spreads move more durably.
The three possible market reactions
Contained, rhetorical: quarantine exists but porous; diplomacy churns; no second-wave actions. Premium bleeds out; volatility mean-reverts.
Escalation, prolonged control risk: “not governing” language loses credibility; repeated operations; allies fracture further. Longer-duration premium; broader risk-off impulse across FX and rates.
Australia and Asia angle
For Sydney, Singapore, and Hong Kong screens, this is less about Venezuelan retail politics and more about how a Western Hemisphere intervention bleeds into Asia pricing.
AUD is the quick and dirty risk proxy. Asia refiners care about the kind of oil and the friction cost. Heavy crude plus diluent dependency makes substitution non-trivial. If enforcement looks aggressive, the “price” can show up in freight, insurance, and spreads before it shows up in headline Brent.
Catalyst calendar, key developments markets may monitor
US policy detail: quarantine rules, enforcement posture, exemptions.
UN and allies: statements that signal whether this becomes a long legitimacy fight.
The United States entered a government shutdown on October 1, 2025, after Congress failed to agree on full-year appropriations or a short-term funding bill. Although shutdowns have occurred before, the timing, speed, scale, and motives behind this one make it unique. This is the first shutdown since the last Trump term in 2018–19, which lasted 35 days, the longest in history.For traders, understanding both the mechanics and the ripple effects is essential to anticipating how markets may respond, particularly if the shutdown draws out to multiple weeks as currently anticipated.
What Is a Government Shutdown?
A government shutdown occurs when Congress fails to pass appropriation bills or a temporary extension to fund government operations for the new fiscal year beginning October 1.Without the legal authority to spend, federal agencies must suspend “non-essential” operations, while “essential” services such as national security, air traffic control, and public safety continue, often with employees working unpaid until funding is restored.Since the Government Employee Fair Treatment Act of 2019, federal employees are guaranteed back pay to cover lost wages once the shutdown ends, although there has been some narrative from the current administration that some may not be returning to work at all.
Why Did the Government Shutdown Happen?
The 2025 impasse stems from partisan disputes over spending levels, health-insurance subsidies, and proposed rescissions of foreign aid and other programs. The reported result is that around 900,000 federal workers are furloughed, and another 700,000 are currently working without pay.Unlike many past standoffs, there was no stopgap agreement to keep the government open while negotiations continued, making this shutdown more disruptive and unusually early.
Why an Early Shutdown?
Historically, most shutdowns don’t occur immediately on October 1. Lawmakers typically kick the can down the road with a “Continuing Resolution (CR)”. This is a stopgap measure that can extend existing funding for weeks or months to allow time for an agreement later in the quarter.The speed of the breakdown in 2025, with no CR in place, is unusual compared to past shutdowns. It suggests it was not simply budgetary drift, but a potentially deliberate refusal to extend funding.
Alternative Theories Behind the Early Shutdown
While the main narrative coming from the U.S. administrators points to budget deadlock, several other theories are being discussed across the media:
Executive Leverage – The White House may be using the shutdown as a tool to increase bargaining power and force structural policy changes. Health care is central to the debate, funding for which was impacted significantly by the “one big, beautiful bill” recently passed through Congress.
Hardline Congressional Factions – Small but influential groups within Congress, particularly on the right, may be driving the shutdown to demand deeper cuts.
Political Messaging – The blame game is rife, despite the reality that Republican control of the presidency, House, and Senate, as well as both sides, is indulging in the usual political barbs aimed at the other side. As for the voter impact, Recent polls show that voters are placing more blame on Republicans than Democrats at this point, though significant numbers of Americans suggest both parties are responsible
Debt Ceiling Positioning – Creating a fiscal crisis early could shape the terms of future negotiations on borrowing limits.
Electoral Calculus – With midterms ahead, both sides may be positioning to frame the narrative for voters.
Systemic Dysfunction – A structural view is that shutdowns have become a recurring feature of hyper-partisan U.S. politics, rather than exceptions.
Short-Term Impact of Government Shutdown
AreaImpactFederal workforceHundreds of thousands have been furloughed with reduced services across various agencies.Travel & aviationFAA expects to furlough 11,000 staff. Inspections and certifications may stall. Safety concerns may become more acute if prolonged shutdown.Economic outputThe White House estimates a $15 billion GDP loss per week of shutdown (source: internal document obtained by “Politico”.Consumer spendingFederal workers and contractors face delayed income, pressuring local economies. Economic data releaseKey data releases may be delayed, impacting the decision process at the Fed meeting later this month.Credit outlookScope Ratings and others warn that the shutdown is “negative for credit” and could weigh on U.S. borrowing costs.Projects & researchInfrastructure, grants, and scientific initiatives are delayed or paused.
Medium- to Long-Term Impact of Government Shutdown
1. Market Sentiment
Shutdowns show some degree of U.S. political dysfunction. They can weigh on confidence and subsequently equity market and risk asset sentiment. To date, markets are shrugging off a prolonged impact, but a continued shutdown into later next week could start to impact.Equity markets have remained strong, and there has been no evidence of the frequent seasonal pullback we often see around this time of year.Markets have proved resilient to date, but one wonders whether this could be a catalyst for some significant selling to come.
2. Borrowing Costs
Ratings downgrades could lift Treasury yields and increase debt-servicing costs. The Federal Reserve is already balancing sticky inflation and potential downward pressure on growth. This could make rate decisions more difficult.
3. The Impact on the USD
Rises in treasury yields would generally support the USD. However, rising concerns about fiscal stability created by a prolonged shutdown may put further downward pressure on the USD. Consequently, it is likely to result in buying into gold as a safe haven. With gold already testing record highs repeatedly over the last weeks, this could support further moves to the upside.
4. Credibility Erosion
Repeated shutdowns weaken the U.S.’s reputation as the world’s most reliable borrower. With some evidence that tariffs are already impacting trade and investment into the US, a prolonged shutdown could exacerbate this further.
What Traders Should Watch
For those who trade financial markets, shutdowns matter more for what they could signal both in the short and medium term. Here are some of the key asset classes to watch:
Equities: Likely to see volatility as political risk rises, and the potential for “money off the table” after significant gains year-to-date for equities.
U.S. Dollar: With the US dollar already relatively weak, further vulnerability if a shutdown feeds global doubts about U.S. fiscal stability.
Gold and other commodities: May continue to gain as hedges against political and credit risk. Oil is already threatening support levels; any prolonged shutdown may add to the bearish narrative, along with other economic slowdown concerns
Outside the US: With the US such a big player in global GDP, we may see revisions in forward-looking estimates, slingshot impacts on other global markets and even supply chain disruptions with impact on customs services (potentially inflationary).
Final Word
The 2025 shutdown is unusual because of its scale and because it started on Day 1 of the fiscal year, without even a temporary extension. That speed points to a deeper strategic and political contribution beyond the usual budget wrangling that we see periodically.For traders, the lesson is clear: shutdowns are not just what happens in Washington, but may impact confidence, borrowing costs, and market sentiment across a range of asset classes. In today’s world, where political credibility is a form of capital, shutdowns have the potential to erode the very foundation of the U.S.’s role in global finance and trade relationships.
The US has entered the Israel-Iran war. However, despite an initial 4 per cent surge on the open, oil has settled where it has been since the conflict began in early June — around US$72 to US$75 a barrel.Trump claims the attacks from the US on Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend are a very short, very tactical, one-off. This is something his base can get behind — some really big conservative players do not want a long-contracted war that sucks the US into external disputes.Whether this will be the case or not is up for debate, but there is a precedent from Trump's first presidency that we can look to. Iran had attacked several American bases in 2019, as well as attacking Saudi Arabia's most important oil refinery with Iranian drones. There wasn't a huge amount of damage; it was more a symbolic movement and display of capabilities by Iran.Initially, Trump didn't react — it took pressure from Gulf allies like the UAE and Israel for him to respond, which saw him order the assassination of the head of the Iranian Defence Force, Qasem Soleimani. This led to an Iranian response of ‘lots of noise’ and ‘cage rattling’, but minimal real action events, just a few drone attacks. Trump is betting on the same reaction now.If Iran follows the same patterns from the previous engagement, the geopolitical side of this is already at its peak.As of now, Iran is not going after or destroying major Gulf energy capabilities. Nor have there been any disruptions to the shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. In fact, apart from a posturing vote to block the Strait, Iran has not made any indication that it is going to disrupt oil in any way that would lead to price surges.Additionally, despite the U.S. military equipment buildup in the region being its highest since the Iraq war, critical Iranian energy infrastructure is running largely unscathed.This all suggests that the geopolitics and the physical and futures oil markets remain disconnected. Oil will spike on news rumours, but the actual impacts in the physical realm to this point remain low. Of course, this could change in future. But, for now, the risk of seeing oil move to US$100 a barrel is still a minority case rather than the majority.
As geopolitical narratives continue to simmer, US and European markets move into the rest of the week with three dominant drivers: US inflation data, the start of US earnings season, and an unusual Fed-independence headline risk after the DOJ subpoenaed the Federal Reserve.
Quick facts:
US consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) are the key macro releases and are likely to impact the US dollar (USD) and other asset classes if there is a significant move from expectations.
JPMorgan reports Tuesday, with other major US banks through the week, as the Q4 reporting season gets underway.
Reporting around DOJ action involving the Fed, and Chair Powell’s prior testimony, created early market volatility on Monday, with markets sensitive to anything that may be perceived as undermining Fed independence.
President Trump announced this morning that any country doing business with Iran will face a 25% tariff on all business with the US, effective immediately.
Europe’s production and growth updates, including Eurozone industrial production and UK monthly GDP and trade data, are later in the week.
United States: CPI, Fed path, DOJ and Fed headline risk, and banks leading earnings
What to watch:
The US is carrying the highest event density in global data releases this week. CPI and PPI will both be watched for moves away from expectations.
Any meaningful surprise can shift Fed policy expectations. Markets are currently pricing a lower likelihood of a March rate cut (under 30%) than this time last week, based on fed funds futures probabilities tracked by CME FedWatch.
Bank earnings may set the tone for the reporting season as a whole. Forward guidance is likely to be as important as Q4 performance, with valuations thought to be high after another record close in the S&P 500 overnight.
Key releases and events:
Tue 13 Jan (Wed am AEDT): CPI (Dec) (high sensitivity)
Tue 13 Jan (Wed am AEDT): JPMorgan earnings before market open (high sensitivity for banks and risk tone)
Wed to Thu: additional large-bank earnings cluster (high sensitivity for financials sentiment)
Wed 14 Jan (Thu am AEDT): US PPI
Thu 15 Jan (Fri am AEDT): US weekly unemployment
Throughout the week: Fed member speeches
How markets may respond:
S&P 500 and US risk tone: US indices are near record levels. The S&P 500 closed at 6,977.27 on Monday. Hotter-than-expected inflation can pressure growth and small-cap equities in particular, and weigh on the market broadly. Softer inflation can support further risk-on behaviour.
USD: Inflation data is the obvious driver this week for the greenback, but any continuation of DOJ and Fed developments, or geopolitical escalation, may introduce additional USD influences.
With the USD testing the highest levels seen in a month, followed by some light selling yesterday, some volatility looks likely. Gold has also been bid as a potential safety trade and hit fresh highs in the latest session, suggesting demand for defensive exposure remains present.
Earnings (banks): In a market already priced near highs, results can still create volatility if they are not accompanied by supportive earnings per share (EPS), revenue and forward guidance. Financials will likely see the first-order response, but any early pattern in results and guidance can influence the broader market beyond the first few days.
UK and Eurozone: growth data influence amid continuing equity strength
What to watch:
In a week where Europe may be driven primarily by events in the US and geopolitical narrative, the Eurozone industrial production print is still a noteworthy local release.
In the UK, monthly GDP and trade numbers on Thursday may influence both the FTSE 100 and the pound, particularly if there is any meaningful surprise.
Key releases and events:
Eurozone
Wed 14 Jan: Eurozone industrial production (Nov 2025) (medium sensitivity for cyclical sectors)
UK
Thu 15 Jan: GDP monthly estimate (Nov 2025) (high sensitivity for GBP and UK rate expectations)
Thu 15 Jan: UK trade (Nov 2025) (low to medium sensitivity)
How markets may respond:
EUR spillover from the US: Despite light Eurozone data, the US response is likely to matter most this week, with the US dollar index a major driver of broader G10 FX direction.
DAX (DE40): Germany’s index is also trading at or near record levels and closed at 25,405 on Monday. (2) If the index is extended, it may react more to global rate moves and shifts in perceived risk.
FTSE 100 and GBP: The FTSE hit a new high in the overnight session, driven particularly by materials and mining stocks. (5) Any GDP surprise can re-price GBP and UK equities quickly in an environment where growth concerns persist.
Wed 14 Jan: US CPI, US bank earnings kick-off (notably JPMorgan)
Wed 14 Jan: Eurozone industrial production (Nov 2025)
Thu 15 Jan: UK monthly GDP (Nov 2025) and UK trade (Nov 2025), US bank earnings continue
Fri 16 Jan: US weekly unemployment, US bank earnings continue
Bottom line
If US CPI surprises higher, markets may lean toward higher-for-longer interest rate pricing, which can pressure equity multiples and lift rates volatility.
If bank earnings are solid but guidance is cautious, equities can still see two-way swings given index levels near records and high valuations.
If DOJ and Fed headlines escalate, they may override normal data reactions to some degree. That could increase demand for perceived safe havens such as gold and lift FX volatility.
For Europe, Eurozone production (Wed) and UK GDP and trade (Thu) are the key local data. The region is still likely to trade primarily off US outcomes and broader risk sentiment.
Asia-Pacific markets start the week with sentiment shaped by China’s mid-week trade data, USDJPY (USD/JPY) as Japan’s key volatility channel, and offshore reporting influencing Australian equities. With a light domestic data calendar, global events may do most of the work on risk appetite.
Quick facts:
China's mid-week trade data is the primary regional risk event, with imports monitored for signs of domestic demand stability.
USD/JPY remains the key volatility channel, which may influence Nikkei performance.
Australian equities lack major domestic catalysts, leaving the ASX and AUD direction sensitive to China outcomes, geopolitics and US bank earnings.
This week’s Asia-Pacific focus is less about local policy and more about the transmission channels that typically set the tone.
For China, trade data may shape the growth narrative.
For Japan, the USD/JPY direction may influence equity momentum.
For Australia, offshore earnings, commodities and geopolitics may dominate in the absence of major domestic catalysts.
China: Shanghai may be influenced by trade data
What to watch:
With mid-week Chinese trade data, markets may view the release as a gauge of whether policy support is translating into growth activity or slowing any downturn.
Shanghai Composite: Stronger trade data could support sentiment, though the quality and perceived longevity of any improvement may matter. Weak imports would likely be read as continued softness in domestic demand.
Australia (resources and AUD): China trade and credit tone can feed directly into bulk commodity expectations and regional risk appetite, with potential flow-through to ASX miners and AUDUSD (AUD/USD).
With no major policy decision scheduled, and the producer price index (PPI) the main data point, Japan’s influence this week may run primarily through USD/JPY moves after US data releases, and broader geopolitical headlines, particularly as markets reopen after Monday’s public holiday.
Key releases:
Wed 14 Jan: Preliminary machine tool orders, year on year (y/y) (low sensitivity)
Thu 15 Jan: PPI (medium sensitivity)
How markets may respond:
USD/JPY: The pair ended last week around 158, near recent highs. Moves can be volatile; markets will watch whether the pair holds recent strength or retraces, particularly around prior trading ranges.
Nikkei 225: The index hit a record high early last week before a modest two-day pullback, then closed higher on Friday. Equity momentum, often closely tied to FX stability, may be influenced by the strength or otherwise of USD/JPY.
Australia: offshore drivers dominate in a lighter data week
What to watch:
In the absence of significant domestic data releases, Australian markets may be more exposed to external influences. The main themes are China trade data, geopolitics, commodity prices and the start of the US earnings season, with banks in focus.
Thu 15 Jan: Melbourne Institute (MI) inflation expectations (low sensitivity)
How markets may respond:
ASX 200: The index has been consolidating around the 8,700–8,800 area (approx.). Local financial stocks may react to inferences made from US bank earnings. Stocks such as Macquarie Group are typically more sensitive to global market conditions and activity in investment markets, often drawing comparisons with US peers such as JPMorgan Chase (JPM).
AUDUSD (AUD/USD): AUD/USD has pulled back after last week’s gains and is trading near recent highs. Technical commentary is mixed, and price action can change quickly around major offshore events.
South Korea is expecting an interest rate decision on Thursday. Any deviation from market expectations for no change (currently 2.5% per Trading Economics) could create a minor FX ripple in regional currency pairs.
Asia-Pacific calendar:
Mon 12 Jan: Japan public holiday
Tue 13 Jan: Australia consumer sentiment
Wed 14 Jan: China trade balance, exports and imports
Thu 15 Jan: Bank of Korea rate decision; Japan PPI; Australia inflation expectations
Bottom line
If China trade and credit data stabilise, regional equities may move higher, with AUD and ASX resource stocks among the key sensitivity points.
If USD/JPY extends higher, the Nikkei may remain supported near highs, though FX volatility risk may increase.
If US bank earnings disappoint, ASX financials could face near-term pressure despite limited domestic data.
Information is accurate as at 23:00 AEDT on 11 January 2026. Economic calendar events, charts and market price data are sourced from TradingView.
So why do Magnificent 7 (Mag 7) earnings matter for Australians? Because the US earnings season is a different sport from Australia, and this is where the scoreboard sits. These seven names do not just report results, they set the tone for the Nasdaq, the S&P 500, and risk appetite more broadly. They often influence index tone, but market moves are not guaranteed and can fade or reverse.
The Aussie edge: time zones, event windows, and what gets priced
For Aussie traders, the challenge is not just timing. It's overnight gaps, liquidity, and AUD/USD currency moves that can amplify or offset the share price reaction.
Most Mag 7 results land after the US close, so the initial move often hits Sydney morning liquidity. Markets may react first to the headline numbers, then again during the call as guidance, margins and capex are digested — but the sequence varies by quarter.
What this guide gives you, company by company
For each company, we map the US Eastern Time (ET) reporting window and the Sydney time window (AEDT), flag whether it is before or after the US close, and narrow the focus to the few drivers that tend to move price.
Source: Adobe Images
Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL)
Apple is a “quality” print until it isn’t. The market doesn’t just ask if Apple beat. It asks whether demand and mix support the next leg.
Reporting window (confirmed)
US reporting time: Thu, 29 Jan 2026 at 5:00 pm ET (after close)
AU reporting time: Fri, 30 Jan 2026 at 9:00 am AEDT
Quarter snapshot (Q1)
Projected consensus earnings per share (EPS): US$2.65
Call focus: iPhone demand and mix, services trajectory, China and FX translation
Translation: Apple “beats” are common. The repricing comes from demand tone and margin language.
Earnings expectations and how the market will frame it
A “beat” means EPS and revenue come in above expectations, but it only really counts if demand still sounds healthy and the gross margin commentary stays straightforward.
A “meet” means results are basically in line, so attention shifts to the call. Investors will focus on iPhone product mix, how fast Services is growing, and whether any specific regions are weakening.
A “miss” often reacts more negatively if it is driven by weaker demand, because the market may treat it as the start of a trend, not a one time issue. You can also see a big price gap right after the report, before the call even starts.
Source: Adobe Images
Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ: META)
Meta is expected to report the December quarter, which effectively turns this into a Sydney morning catalyst for Aussie traders. The headline move hits first but the second leg often comes from the call, when guidance and capex ranges get priced.
Reporting window (expected)
US reporting time: Mon, 2 Feb 2026 at 4:05 pm ET (after close)
AU reporting time: Tue, 3 Feb 2026 at 8:05 am AEDT
Quarter snapshot (Q4)
Projected consensus EPS: US$8.29
Projected consensus revenue: US$58.27 bn
Call focus: AI infrastructure capex, Ads demand plus Reels monetisation and Reality Labs losses versus discipline
Translation: Meta can beat the print and still sell off if the Street hears “higher spend, longer payoff.”
Earnings expectations and how the market will frame it
A “beat” means EPS and revenue come in above consensus, but it only really counts if guidance stays intact and the 2026 capex and expense ranges do not get wider.
A “meet” is close enough that the stock trades the tone of the call: how broad ad demand looks, whether Reels monetisation is improving, and whether spending sounds capped or more open ended.
A “miss” can turn ugly quickly if it comes with weaker ad demand commentary or higher spend bands. With expectations already high, the initial gap can be sharp, and what happens next depends on whether guidance can steady the story.
Source: Adobe Images
Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ: GOOGL)
Alphabet is still an ads engine first, and a Cloud and AI story second. The market wants proof that Cloud profitability and AI spend can coexist without compressing the whole narrative.
Reporting window (confirmed)
US reporting time: Wed, 4 Feb 2026 at 4:00 pm ET (after close)
AU reporting time: Thu, 5 Feb 2026 at 8:00 am AEDT
Quarter snapshot (Q4)
Projected consensus EPS: US$2.59
Projected consensus revenue: TBC
Call focus: Search and YouTube ads pricing and volume, Cloud growth and profitability, AI capex and monetisation signals
Translation: The market forgives a lot if ads are strong and Cloud margins keep improving.
Earnings expectations and how the market will frame it
A “beat” means EPS and revenue come in above consensus, but it only really matters if ad demand sounds broad and Cloud profitability does not slip while AI spending ramps.
A “meet” puts the call in the driver’s seat, with investors listening for ad pricing trends, YouTube momentum, and whether capex is moving higher.
A “miss” hurts most if it is driven by weaker ads, because then the market starts debating the ad cycle, not just the company.
Source: Adobe Images
Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ: AMZN)
Amazon is two businesses stapled together in the tape. The market uses AWS to price growth and uses retail margins to price discipline.
Reporting window (expected)
US reporting time: Mon, 2 Feb 2026 at 4:00 pm ET (after close)
AU reporting time: Tue, 3 Feb 2026 at 8:00 am AEDT
Quarter snapshot (Q4)
Prijected consensus EPS: US$1.97
Projected consensus revenue: US$211.33 bn
Call focus: AWS growth and margins, retail profitability/fulfilment efficiency, advertising momentum, capex tone
Translation: AWS decides the direction. Retail decides the confidence.
Earnings expectations and how the market will frame it
A “beat” means EPS and revenue come in above consensus, but it only really matters if AWS holds steady or speeds up again and management does not worry the Street with spending plans.
A “meet” puts AWS and margin tone front and centre, and the call does most of the work.
A “miss” usually gets hit hardest when AWS growth slows or operating income guidance disappoints, because that is what can reset the whole valuation debate.
Source: Adobe Images
Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ: MSFT)
Reporting window (confirmed)
US reporting time: Wed, 28 Jan 2026 at 4:00 pm ET (after close)
AU reporting time: Thu, 29 Jan 2026 at 8:00 am AEDT
Quarter snapshot (Q2)
Projected consensus earnings per share (EPS): US$3.86
Projected consensus revenue: US$80.09 bn
Call focus: Azure growth, AI monetisation (Copilot/attach), capex intensity, and margin trajectory
Translation: This is usually a cloud plus capex trade, not an EPS trade.
Earnings expectations and how the market will frame it
A “beat” means EPS and revenue come in above consensus, but it only really matters if Azure is holding up and capex does not sound unlimited. Beat plus steady cloud trends and stable margins is the upside script the tape usually rewards.
A “meet” puts the focus on the call, especially Azure growth, commercial bookings tone, and how quickly capex is stepping up.
A “miss” usually gets punished most when cloud growth slows or margins get shaky, because that is the key forward anchor the market leans on.
Source: Adobe Images
NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ: NVDA)
Nvidia is the season’s last boss. Markets treat it like a read-through on AI capex itself. The print matters, but guidance and gross margin are the real price setters.
Reporting window (confirmed)
US reporting time: Wed, 25 Feb 2026 at 4:20 pm ET (after close)
AU reporting time: Thu, 26 Feb 2026 at 8:20 am AEDT
Quarter snapshot (Q4)
Projected consensus EPS: US$1.45
Projected consensus revenue: US$65.47 bn
Call focus: Data centre demand versus capacity, gross margin trajectory, supply/lead times, next-quarter guide
Translation: Guidance and gross margin commentary often drive the reaction, but outcomes vary.
Earnings expectations and how the market will frame it
A “beat” means EPS and revenue come in above consensus, but it only really matters if the next quarter outlook confirms demand is still strong and the gross margin message stays solid.
A “meet” means the call becomes the decider, and the stock trades the outlook, margins, and what management says about supply conditions.
A “miss” can gap down fast, especially if it comes with softer forward guidance, because the market may take it as a clue about the broader AI spending cycle.
Source: Adobe Images
Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA)
Tesla’s earnings are rarely just about the quarter. The print hits first, but the real repricing usually happens when the call clarifies margins, demand, and the autonomy timeline. For Aussie traders, it’s a Sydney morning catalyst.
Reporting window (confirmed)
US reporting time: Wed, 28 Jan 2026 at 4:05 pm ET (after close)
AU reporting time: Thu, 29 Jan 2026 at 8:05 am AEDT
Quarter snapshot (Q4)
Projected consensus EPS: US$0.44
Projected consensus revenue: US$25.15 bn
Call focus: Autonomy/robotaxi cadence, auto gross margin, pricing/demand and energy storage scale
Translation: Tesla can “beat” and still get sold if margins compress or the roadmap tone shifts.
Earnings expectations and how the market will frame it
A “beat” means EPS and revenue come in above consensus, but it only really matters if the margin story stays intact and management does not add fresh uncertainty around pricing or timing.
A “meet” is close enough that the stock trades the tone of the call, especially on demand, how durable margins look, and progress toward autonomy milestones.
A “miss” gets hit fastest when it comes with weaker margin language or softer demand comments, because the market will assume next quarter looks tougher, not easier.
