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Three central banks are deciding rates simultaneously, Brent crude is swinging wildly around US$100 a barrel, and a war in the Middle East is rewriting the inflation outlook in real time. Whatever happens this week could set the tone for markets for the rest of 2026.
Quick facts
- The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announces its next cash rate decision on Tuesday, with markets now pricing a 66% chance of a second hike to 4.1%.
- Some analysts have warned the Iran war could push US inflation to 3.5% by year-end and delay Fed rate cuts until September, making this week's FOMC dot plot the most closely watched in years.
- Brent crude is flirting with US$100 a barrel after Iran launched what state media described as its "most intense operation since the beginning of the war."
RBA: Will Australia hike again?
The RBA raised the cash rate for the first time in two years to 3.85% at its February meeting after inflation picked up materially in the second half of 2025.
The question now is whether it moves again before even seeing the next quarterly CPI print, which isn't due until 29 April.
Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser acknowledged ahead of the meeting that policymakers face a genuinely divided decision, shaped by conflicting economic signals at home and growing instability abroad.
Financial markets currently assign around a 66% probability to another hike, with a May increase considered virtually certain regardless of what happens Monday.
Key dates
- RBA Cash Rate Decision: Tuesday 17 March, 2:30 pm AEDT
- Governor Bullock press conference: Tuesday 17 March, 3:30 pm AEDT
Monitor
- Any reference from Bullock to further hikes being likely in May
- AUD/USD immediate reaction.
- ASX banks and REITs.
FOMC: Hold likely, all eyes on the dot plot
The FOMC meets on March 17–18, with the policy statement scheduled for 2:00 pm ET on March 18 and Chair Jerome Powell's press conference at 2:30 pm. CME FedWatch shows a 99% probability that the Fed holds rates at 3.50% to 3.75%.
The real action is in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and dot plot. The current median dot shows one 25-basis-point cut for 2026. If it shifts to two cuts, that is dovish and bullish for risk assets. If it shifts to zero cuts or adds a rate hike into the projection, markets could react in the other direction.
Further complicating matters, Powell's term as Federal Reserve Chair expires on May 23, 2026. Kevin Warsh is the leading candidate to replace him, viewed as more hawkish on monetary policy. Any comment from Powell on this transition could move markets independently of the rate decision itself.
Key Date
- FOMC Rate Decision + SEP/Dot Plot: Thursday 19 March, 4:00 am AEDT
- Powell press conference: Thursday 19 March, 4:30 am AEDT
Monitor
- Powell's language on oil and tariff inflation.
- 2-year Treasury yield reaction.
- CME FedWatch repricing for any shift in the September cut probability.
Bank of Japan: Further tightening could be brought forward
The BOJ meets on March 18–19, with the decision expected Thursday morning Tokyo time. The current policy rate sits at 0.75% (a 30-year high), and the January 2026 meeting produced a hold in an 8-1 vote.
Governor Ueda has categorised the March meeting as "live," noting the timeline for further tightening could be "brought forward" if Shunto spring wage negotiations yield stronger-than-expected results.
Those results are due to begin flowing in during the week, making them the critical input for the BOJ's decision. Nomura expects 2026 Shunto wage hikes to come in around 5.0%, including seniority, with base pay growth of approximately 3.4%. If results confirm that trajectory, the case for a March hike strengthens considerably.
The complication is the global backdrop. Japan imports roughly 90% of its energy needs, and oil around US$100 per barrel is pushing up import costs and threatening to add inflationary pressure. A BOJ hike into a global oil shock would be an unusually bold move.
Most market participants still lean toward a hold at this meeting, with April or July seen as the more likely timing for the next move.
Key Date
- BOJ Policy Rate Decision (currently 0.75%): Thursday 19 March, morning AEDT
Monitor
- Shunto wage results as the primary trigger for a March hike.
- Ueda press conference language and forward guidance on April and July.
- USD/JPY reaction.
Oil: Continued volatility
Brent crude briefly touched US$119.50 per barrel earlier in the week before dropping 17% to below US$80, then rebounding toward US$95 on mixed signals from Washington about the Strait of Hormuz.
As of Thursday, Brent was back over US$100 as Iran launched fresh attacks on commercial shipping and the IEA reserve release failed to bring meaningful relief.
In the scenario where a longer conflict inflicts damage to energy infrastructure, analysts estimate CPI could rise to 3.5% by the end of 2026, with gasoline prices approaching US$5 per gallon in the second quarter.
For this week, oil acts as a macro meta-variable. Every geopolitical headline, ceasefire signal, tanker attack, reserve release, and Trump comment could move equities, bonds and currencies in real time.
Monitor
- Any resumed Strait of Hormuz tanker flow.
- IEA emergency reserve release.
- Trump statements on Iran.
- Energy sector equities.
7 global commodity stocks to watch as the Iran war reshapes markets
Goldman Sachs reported its latest financial results for the previous quarter before the US market open on Tuesday. Let’s take a closer look at the key numbers. The company reported higher than expected revenue for Q4 2021 of $12.639 billion vs. $12.044 billion estimate.
Earnings per share (EPS) at $10.81 per share in Q4 2021, below Wall Street analyst expectations of $11.77 per share. In 2021, Goldman Sachs generated record net revenues of $59.34 billion, record net earnings of $21.64 billion and record diluted EPS of $59.45 – all significantly surpassing previous records. David Solomon, Chairman and CEO commented on last year’s performance: ''2021 was a record year for Goldman Sachs.
The firm’s extraordinary performance is a testament to the strength of our client franchise and people. Moving forward, our leadership team remains committed to growing Goldman Sachs, diversifying our businesses and delivering strong returns for shareholders.'' Goldman Sachs chart (1Y) Shares of Goldman tumbled on Tuesday following the latest results, down by around 7%. The stock is up by 19% in the last year at $350.60 per share.
Goldman Sachs is the 117 th largest company in the world and with a total market cap of $127.07 billion. You can trade Goldman Sachs (GS) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Goldman Sachs, TradingView, CompaniesMarketCap
Bank of America announced its 2021 Q4 financial results before the opening bell on Wall Street on Wednesday. World’s 2 nd largest bank reported total revenue of $22.06 billion, falling short of analyst estimate of $22.18 billion. Earnings per share at $0.82 a share in the previous quarter, above analyst forecast of $0.77 a share.
Chairman and CEO, Brian Moynihan commented on the latest results: "Our fourth-quarter results were driven by strong organic growth, record levels of digital engagement, and an improving economy. We grew loans by $51 billion and added $100 billion of deposits during the quarter, further strengthening our position as the leader in retail deposits." "We earned a record $32 billion in 2021, with every business line solidly contributing. In Consumer, we added millions of new credit card accounts and nearly a million net new checking accounts as we continued to demonstrate the value we provide through our physical and digital capabilities.
Wealth Management had record client flows and the strongest client acquisition numbers since before the pandemic. Investment Banking had its best year ever and Global Markets had its highest sales and trading revenue in a decade, led by record Equities performance as we invested in the business." "We also continued to support our communities, helping them address some of society’s biggest challenges, including the environment, the pandemic, racial equality and economic opportunity. I want to thank our talented teammates across the globe for all their work over the past year," he added.
Bank of America chart (1Y) Share price of Bank of America little changed during the trading day on Wednesday. The stock is up by 45% in the past year at $46.58 per share. Bank of America is the 20 th largest company in the world and with a total market cap of $383.21 billion.
You can trade Bank of America (BAC) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: Bank of America, TradingView, CompaniesMarketCap
NIO Inc. (NIO) reported its latest delivery numbers for November on Wednesday, setting a new monthly following disappointing results in October. The Chinese electric vehicle company delivered 10,878 cars last month – an increase of 105.6% year-over-year. The deliveries in November consisted of: 2,683 ES8s – the company’s six-seater or seven-seater flagship premium smart electric SUV 4,713 ES6s – the company’s five-seater high-performance premium smart electric SUV 3,482 EC6s – the company’s five-seater premium smart electric coupe SUV NIO has delivered a total of 80,940 cars in 2021 and 156,581 in total as of 30 th November, 2021.
NIO Inc. Chart (1Y) Shares of NIO were trading higher on Wednesday following the latest delivery numbers, up by around 2% on the day. The stock is down by 16.61% in the past year at $40.19 a share.
NIO is the 13 th largest automaker in the world with a market cap of $63.79 billion. You can trade NIO Inc. (NIO) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Click here for more information.
Trading Derivatives carries a high level of risk. Sources: NIO, TradingView, CompaniesMarketCap
Last week, NIO announced that they have entered into a strategic agreement with Shell, the largest gasoline retailer in the world. The latest move is a boost for NIO to further establish themselves in the electric vehicle industry. The agreement includes plans to construct and operate battery charging and swapping facilities in China and Europe.
NIO and Shell plan to install 100 battery swapping stations in China by 2025 and start to construct and operate pilot stations in Europe from next year. Both companies will also explore collaboration opportunities in battery asset management, fleet management, membership system, home charging services, advanced battery charging and swapping technology development, and construction of charging facilities. William Li, Founder, Chairman, CEO of NIO commented on the agreement: ''The cooperation demonstrates Shell’s determination to accelerate the energy transition and commitment to contribute to sustainable development globally.
We believe that the cooperation between NIO and Shell will bring better services and experience to electric vehicle users worldwide.'' István Kapitány, global executive vice president of Shell Mobility said: "Decarbonization is a global challenge that requires broad-reaching, multi-faceted global solutions. This is the most exciting thing about our new partnership with NIO—the breadth of the collaboration and the value we can offer our EV customers together, both in Europe and in China. Together, we'll be working to improve every aspect of the EV experience.
This means we’ll offer Shell Recharge high-speed charging at NIO locations and make battery swap available at convenient Shell locations while also offering NIO customers our best home and business charging solutions." Shell has service stations in nearly 46,000 locations in 80 markets around the world. The company is planning to operate more than 500,000 electric vehicle charge points globally by 2025. NIO Inc.
Chart (1Y) Share price of NIO is down by 19.93% in the past year at $40.46 per share. NIO is the 12 th largest automaker in the world with a market cap of $63.20 billion. You can trade NIO Inc. (NIO) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
Click here for more information. Trading Derivatives carries a high level of risk. Sources: NIO, Shell, TradingView, CompaniesMarketCap
Cash stock indices such as the Dow 30, FTSE 100 and ASX 200 are made up of constituent stocks which is where their price is derived from. These constituent stocks of an index will periodically pay dividends to shareholders, causing a drop in that stocks price and impacting the overall value of the index. With GO Markets this index adjustment will be made at the open of the index on the ex-dividend date of the underlying stock(s).
This price drop in the index will affect the PnL on an open index CFD trade, to compensate this, there will be credit or debit that will be included in the swap that is made around 00:00 server time. If you have a long index position you PnL will be negatively affected so you will receive a credit in the same amount as the dividend adjustment. If you have a short index position you PnL will be positively affected so you will receive a debit in the same amount as the dividend adjustment.
It’s an important point to remember that index traders do not profit or loss from these adjustments. It is a zero sum situation where any PnL change has a corresponding debit or credit to compensate. Example 1: You have a buy position on the ASX200 contract of 10 lots at 00:00 server time.
The next trading day multiple companies go ex-dividend resulting in a 20 point drop in the ASX200 at the open. The swap on this position will be credited $200 AUD (20 points * $10 per point exposure). The ASX200 will open 20 points lower than it would have without the adjustment.
As a result, the PnL on the buy position is $200 worse off, which was compensated for by the swap credit you received. Example 2: You have a sell position on the FTSE100 contract of 10 lots at 00:00 server time. The next trading day multiple companies go ex-dividend resulting in a 15 point drop in the FTSE100 at the next open.
The swap on this position will be debited £150 GBP (15 points * £10 per point exposure). The FTSE100 will open 15 points lower than it would have without the adjustment. As a result, the PnL on the sell position is £150 better off, which was compensated for by the swap debit you received. (Please note, as dividends are combined with normal financing adjustments, the swap will not be exactly the same as the dividend only) You can view the trading hours and upcoming swap/dividend adjustments in the specifications of an instrument.
Example of ASX200 before a 20 point adjustment below:
It’s set to be busy one over in the United States this week with some of the world’s largest companies, including Apple, Microsoft, Facebook and Alphabet due to report their Q1 earnings. Up first – Tesla. World’s largest electric vehicle maker reported their results after the closing bell on Monday.
Elon Musk’s Tesla reported total revenue of $10.39 billion in Q1 above analyst forecast of $10.29 billion. Adjusted earnings per share were reported at $0.93 above $0.78 expected. Net profit reached $438 million in Q1 – the highest quarterly number ever for the company. "In Q1, we achieved our highest ever vehicle production and deliveries.
This was in spite of multiple challenges, including seasonality, supply chain instability and the transition to the new Model S and Model X. Our GAAP net income reached $438M, and our non-GAAP net income surpassed $1B for the first time in our history." Earlier in the month, the company reported record delivery numbers with 184,800 vehicles delivered in the first 3 months of 2021 – a 109% improvement from Q1 in 2020. Tesla are planning a 50% average annual growth in vehicle deliveries in the next few years. "Over a multi-year horizon, we expect to achieve 50% average annual growth in vehicle deliveries.
In some years we may grow faster, which we expect to be the case in 2021," Tesla said in a statement. "The rate of growth will depend on our equipment capacity, operational efficiency and capacity and stability of the supply chain." Shares of Tesla trading lower following the latest numbers, down by 1.83% post-market after ending the trading day on Monday at $738.20 per share. Share price is up by over 4% year-to-date. Total market cap currently stands at over $722 billion, making it the 8 th largest company in the world.
Tesla Source: TradingView You can trade Tesla (TSLA) and many other stocks from the ASX, NYSE, and the NASDAQ with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Click here for more information. Trading Derivatives carries a high level of risk.