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US inflation data on Wednesday is the week's centrepiece, but with oil nearing seven-month highs, Bitcoin (BTC) sentiment shifting, and the Australian dollar at three-year highs, traders have plenty to navigate in the week ahead.
Quick Facts
- US inflation rate (February) is the key binary event for rate cut pricing and equity direction.
- Brent crude is trading around US$82–84/bbl, near seven-month highs, with a $4–$10 geopolitical risk premium baked in from Iran/Hormuz tensions.
- Bitcoin is trading above US$70,000 as of 6 March, a potential trend change if it holds through the week.
United States: inflation in focus
Last month’s US inflation reading showed prices rising 2.4% year-on-year, still well above the Fed's 2% target.
February's inflation rate, due Wednesday, will be scrutinised for signs that tariff pass-through or rising energy costs are pushing prices back up, or whether the slow grind lower is still intact.
The March FOMC meeting on 17–18 March is now priced at only an 4.7% probability of a cut. A higher-than-expected inflation print this week could potentially push rate cut expectations further out.
A softer read opens the door to renewed cut pricing and potential relief across risk assets.
Key Dates
- US Inflation Rate (February CPI): Wednesday 11 March, 12:30 am (AEDT)
Monitor
- Core vs. headline inflation divergence as evidence of tariff pass-through in goods prices.
- 2-year and 10-year treasury yield sensitivity to the print.
- USD direction and FedWatch repricing in the lead up to the 18 March FOMC decision.
Oil: elevated and event-sensitive
Brent is currently trading around US$83–85 per barrel, with a 52-week range spanning $58.40 to $85.12, reflecting the dramatic move triggered by the Middle East conflict.
Analysts estimate the geopolitical risk premium already baked into oil at US$4–$10 per barrel, and average 2026 Brent forecasts have been lifted to US$63.85/bbl, up from US$62.02 in January.
The EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts Brent to average $58/bbl in 2026, well below the current spot price.
The gap between spot and the forecast baseline could be a useful frame for traders this week: any de-escalation signal from the Middle East could rapidly close that gap.
Monitor
- Strait of Hormuz developments and any diplomatic signals from Iran nuclear talks.
- EIA weekly oil inventory data.
- Oil's knock-on to inflation expectations and whether it shifts central bank posture.
- Energy sector equity performance relative to the broader market.
Bitcoin: sentiment watch
BTC has been attempting to stabilise after a brutal 53% correction over the past 17 weeks, fuelled by escalating geopolitical tensions and renewed tariff concerns.
However, yesterday saw a 8% jump back above $72,000, and the crypto “fear and greed index” jumped up to 29 (fear), up from below 20 (extreme fear), where it has been sitting for over a month, indicating a potential sentiment shift.
A cooler-than-expected US inflation print on Wednesday could provide further fuel for the breakout; a hot print risks potentially pulling BTC back below the US$70,000 level it has just reclaimed.
Monitor
- Inflation print reaction on Wednesday as the primary macro catalyst for the move.
- Any rotation into altcoins following BTC strength.
- ETF inflow/outflow data as confirmation of institutional participation.
AUD/USD: Hawkish RBA meets geopolitical crosswinds
The Aussie is trading near more than three-year highs and heading for its fourth consecutive monthly gain, up more than 6% year-to-date, making it the top-performing G10 currency in 2026.
The driver is a clear policy divergence. RBA Governor Michele Bullock signalled the March policy meeting is "live" for a possible rate increase, and warned that an oil price shock from Iran tensions could reignite domestic inflationary pressures.
Market pricing now suggests around a 28% chance of a 25bp hike at the upcoming meeting, while fully pricing in tightening through May, and around a 75% chance of another increase to 4.35% by year-end.
This hawkish read, set against a Fed on hold and facing dovish political pressure, creates a potential structural tailwind for the Aussie.
Monitor
- AUD/USD reaction to Wednesday's US inflation data.
- RBA rate hike probability repricing through the week.
- Iron ore and commodity prices as secondary AUD drivers.
- China demand signals, given Australia's export exposure.
FX traders have a bumper week of major economic announcements to navigate, with markets in a holding pattern awaiting the pivotal January Federal Reserve meeting, adding to that a Bank of England policy meeting, CPI readings out of Australia and Europe topped off by the US non-farm employment report. The Charts to Watch: AUDUSD – Aussie CPI and Chinese manufacturing PMI Since hitting a cycle low of 0.6525 and finding support at the December lows on January 17 AUDUSD has traded in a tight range between that support and 0.66 where multiple attempts to push higher have been rebuffed. This week’s data looks set to test that range, starting with Aussie CPI and to a lesser extent a Chinese manufacturing PMI on Wednesday. 0.66 will be the level to watch if we get a hot CPI reading, the support at 0.6525 to the downside if there is a cooler than expected reading.
GBPUSD – Bank of England policy meeting Cable has also spent the last week chopping around in a tight range, GBPUSD price action has been contained in a myriad of technical levels with resistance to the upside at 1.27720 and support at the lower 2024 trendline around 1.2650. At this weeks Bank of England meeting, the central bank is expected to gold rates steady but is will be the accompanying statement and presser where traders will look for clues as to when the bank may start cutting rates that will see FX markets re-price. US Dollar Index (DXY) – FOMC and NFP ahead DXY comes off a choppy week with a pivotal FOMC meeting on Thursday and the always market moving NFP on Friday to get things moving.
The 2024 advance in DXY has been capped by resistance at the 200-day moving average along with the July lows-October highs 50% fib level at 103.55. The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady at this meeting, with futures only pricing in a 2% chance of a cut, but it will be the messaging regarding the March meeting (where there is a 50-50 chance of a cut) that should see some volatility in the USD as markets re-price those odds. 103.55 will be the level to watch for the next move in DXY with a break above or below possibly signaling the next trend in DXY. The weeks full calendar at the link below: https://www.gomarkets.com/au/economic-calendar/
With FX markets being pushed and pulled by market participants betting on when the major central banks are going to start cutting rates (or not) FX traders have some important risk events that will influence those expectations to negotiate this week. CPI and retail sales headline in the US, Aussie traders have the January Jobs report and for Sterling traders, UK GDP figures. The charts to watch US Dollar Index (DXY) – CPI to sway market pricing of a March cut Recent strong employment and growth data out of the US has seen the market reprice significantly lower the chance of a Fed rate cut in the March meeting, with odds currently sitting at around 19%, from around 50% only a couple of weeks ago.
This week’s CPI will likely go a long way to settling market expectations on this. DXY has had a strong run up in 2024 so far as continued Fed pushback on rate cut expectations has supported the USD. Key levels to watch this week are the 100 day SMA to the upside which has capped further upside in the DXY over the last few sessions, and the 200 day SMA to the downside for support.
AUDUSD – Will jobs bounce back after December’s shocker Last Tuesdays RBA meeting saw no cut as expected but with a hawkish bias in the accompanying statement. This was a relief for AUDUSD bulls after a break lower of the support level at 0.6525 on Monday looked like a significant decline was ahead for this pair. The RBA has a dual mandate of inflation and employment to look after, so this week’s Jobs report will be closely watched after the big miss in December’s figure.
The once support of 0.6525 has now established as resistance paired with the 100 Day SMA and will be a key level to watch with this week’s data as to the Aussies next move. The weeks full calendar at the link below: https://www.gomarkets.com/au/economic-calendar/
US tobacco and cigarette company Philip Morris International Inc. (NYSE: PM) released the latest financial results for Q4 and 2023 full year before opening bell in the US on Thursday. The company reported revenue of $9 billion for the quarter, which was just shy of $9.008 billion expected. Earnings per share (EPS) fell short of analyst estimates at $1.36 vs. $1.449 per share expected.
Full year revenue and EPS reached $35.2 billion and $5.02 per share respectively. Company overview Founded: 1874 Headquarters: Stamford, Connecticut, United States Number of employees: 79,800 (2022) Industry: Tobacco Key people: André Calantzopoulos (Executive Chairman), Jacek Olczak (CEO) CEO commentary "Our business delivered a strong finish to 2023 and we achieved a number of remarkable milestones on our path to becoming a smoke-free company," Jacek Olczak, CEO of Philip Morris said after earnings. "We are entering 2024 with strong momentum, and we expect it will be another year of excellent performance underpinned by an acceleration in organic smoke-free net revenue and profit growth," Olczak added. Stock reaction Shares were down by 2.68% at the end of Thursday’s session at $88.99 a share – the lowest since October 2023.
Stock performance 5 day: -4.57% 1 month: -6.43% 3 months: -0.86% Year-to-date: -5.37% 1 year: -12.73% Philip Morris stock price targets UBS Group: $86.50 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $115 Redburn Atlantic: $95 Jefferies Financial Group: $105 Stifel Nicolaus: $114 Morgan Stanley: $113 Bank of America: $111 Barclays: $110 Citigroup: $117 Philip Morris International Inc. is the 94th largest company in the world with a market cap of $138.19 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Philip Morris International Inc. (NYSE: PM) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs".
GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Philip Morris International Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
On Friday, US beverage and food company PepsiCo Inc. (NASDAQ: PEP) announced the latest financial results before the market opened. The New York based company reported revenue of $27.85 billion for Q4 2023, falling short of Wall Street analyst estimate of $28.4 billion. Revenue was down from $27.996 billion from the same period in 2022.
Earnings per share (EPS) reached $1.78 (up by 6.5% year-over-year) vs. $1.722 per share expected. PepsiCo achieved full year revenue of $91.471 billion. Full year EPS reached $7.62 per share.
The company also announced a quarterly dividend of $1.265 per share. Company overview Founded: 1898 Headquarters: Donald M. Kendall Sculpture Gardens, Harrison, New York, U.S.
Number of employees: 315,000 (2022) Industry: Beverages, Food processing Key people: Ramon Laguarta (Chairman & CEO), Hugh Johnston (Vice Chairman & CFO) CEO commentary "We are pleased with our results for 2023 as we successfully navigated another year of elevated levels of inflation, macroeconomic volatility, geopolitical tensions and international conflicts. Our results demonstrate that the investments we have made to strengthen our business and advance our pep+ agenda are working: it’s evident in how we are innovating, operating, empowering our teams, building our brands, and competing in the marketplace," CEO of PepsiCo, Ramon Laguarta said in a statement to investors. Stock reaction The stock was down by 2.80% during Friday's session, trading at $168.99 a share.
Stock performance 5 day: -1.37% 1 month: +0.81% 3 months: +1.02% Year-to-date: -0.71% 1 year: -4.30% PepsiCo stock price targets Wedbush: $195 Barclays: $179 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $176 Jefferies Financial Group: $203 DZ Bank: $187 Wells Fargo & Company: $172 Morgan Stanley: $190 Argus: $186 Royal Bank of Canada: $180 Citigroup: $180 Evercore ISI: $185 Deutsche Bank: $195 UBS Group: $205 Credit Suisse Group: $182 PepsiCo Inc. is the 47th largest company in the world with a market cap of $231.86 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade PepsiCo Inc. (NASDAQ: PEP) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs".
GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: PepsiCo Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
The largest steel producer company in the United States, Nucor Corporation (NYSE: NUE), announced the latest financial results after the market closed in Wall Street on Monday. The company achieved revenue of $7.705 billion in the fourth quarter of last year, above analyst estimate of $7.635 billion. Earnings per share was reported at $3.16, also higher than $2.921 per share expected.
Company overview Founded: 1905 Headquarters: Charlotte, North Carolina, United States Number of employees: 31,000 (2022) Industry: Steel Key people: Leon J. Topalian (President, & CEO), John H. Walker (Executive Chairman), James D.
Frias (CFO) CEO commentary "The Nucor team delivered a strong finish to 2023, which represents the third-most profitable year in our Company's history. Nucor's strategy to grow our core steelmaking capabilities and expand beyond into steel-adjacent business lines continues to deliver strong results," Leon J. Topalian, CEO of the steel company said in a press release to investors. "Over the past four years, Nucor has generated an average annual ROE of 33% and has returned approximately $9.7 billion to its shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.
We remain optimistic that Nucor's best days are ahead of us, with a resilient U.S. economy and steel-intensive megatrends driving increased demand for our products. With our strong balance sheet and broad array of sustainable steel solutions, we believe Nucor is unparalleled with respect to its ability to leverage these market drivers for continued growth," Topalian added. Stock reaction The stock was up by 0.88% at market close on Monday, trading at $176.64 a share – the highest since 27/12/2023.
Shares rose by around 1% in the after-hours trading as the latest results were announced. Stock performance 5 day: +3.12% 1 month: +0.98% 3 months: +17.99% Year-to-date: +0.98% 1 year: +5.64% Nucor stock price targets UBS Group: $210 JP Morgan & Chase: $158 Morgan Stanley: $154 Citigroup: $180 Credit Suisse Group: $167 BNP Paribas: $191 The Goldman Sachs Group: $161 Nucor Corporation is the 427th largest company in the world with a market cap of $43.14 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Nucor Corporation (NYSE: NUE) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform.
To find out more, go to ''Trading'' then select ''Share CFDs''. GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Nucor Corporation, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
Chinese electric vehicle company, NIO Inc. (NYSE: NIO), hasn’t had the best start to 2024 with the stock plummeting by 37.05% year-to-date. That’s despite the company signing battery-swap agreements with other Chinese automakers, including, Changan Automobile, Geely Group, JAC Group and Chery Automobile. Back in the December, NIO also announced a $2.2 billion investment from Abu Dhabi.
You can read more about it here. On Thursday, the company released the latest delivery numbers for January, which had a rare positive effect on the share price. NIO delivered 10,055 cars last month, which was up by 18.2% from January 2023.
The company has delivered 459,649 vehicles in total as of 31/1/2024. The EV maker is expected to announce the latest financial results for the fourth quarter on around 21/3/2024. Company overview Founded: November 2014 Headquarters: Shanghai, China Number of employees: 20,000+ (2023) Industry: Automotive Key people: William Li (CEO), Lihong Qin (President), Wei Feng (CFO) Stock reaction The stock was up by 1.60% at the end of trading day on Thursday at $5.71 a share and is currently trading at the lowest level since June 2020.
Stock performance 5 day: -5.46% 1 month: -30.96% 3 months: -26.70% Year-to-date: -37.05% 1 year: -52.26% NIO stock price targets Mizuho: $15 Deutsche Bank: $16 CLSA: $14 Sanford C. Bernstein: $8 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $10.50 Citigroup: $19.20 UBS Group: $15 Nomura: $7.50 Barclays: $8 Morgan Stanley: $12 NIO Inc. is the 1367th largest and 5th largest electric vehicle company in the world with a market cap of $11.91 billion. You can trade NIO Inc. (NYSE: NIO) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: NIO Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap