数字货币CFDs 零隔夜费

From two-year highs to a three-year low

2025 has seen a material decline in the fortunes of the greenback. A technical structure breakdown early in the year was followed by a breach of the 200-day moving average (MA) at the end of Q1. The index then entered correction territory, printing a three-year low at the end of Q2.

Since then, we have seen attempts to build a technical base, including a re-test of the end-of-June lows in mid-September. However, buying pressure has not been strong enough to push price back above the technically critical and psychologically important 100 level.

What the levels suggest from here

As things stand, the index remains more than 10% lower for 2025. On this technical view, the index may revisit the 96 area. However, technical levels can fail and outcomes depend on multiple factors.

US dollar index

The key question for 2026

The key question remains: are we likely to see further losses in the early part of next year and beyond, or will current support hold?

We cannot assess the US dollar in isolation and any outlook is shaped by internal and global factors, not least its relative strength versus other major currencies. Many of these drivers are interrelated, but four potential headwinds stand out for any US dollar recovery. Collectively, they may keep downside pressure in play.

Four headwinds for any US dollar recovery

1. The US dollar as a safe-haven trade

One scenario where US dollar support has historically been evident is during major global events, slowdowns and market shocks. However, the more muted response of the US dollar during risk-off episodes this year suggests a shift away from the historical norm, with fewer sustained US dollar rallies.

Instead, throughout 2025, some investors appeared to favour gold, and at other times, FX and even equities, rather than into the US dollar. If this change in behaviour persists through 2026, it could make recovery harder, even if global economic pressure builds over the year ahead.

2. US versus global trade

Trade policy is harder to measure objectively, and outcomes can be difficult to predict. That said, trade battles driven by tariffs on US imports are often viewed as an additional potential drag on the US dollar.

The impact may be twofold if additional strain is placed on the US economy through:

• a slowdown in global trade volumes as impacted countries seek alternative trade relationships, with supply chain distortions that may not favour US growth
  
• pressure on US corporate profit margins as tariffs lift costs for importers
  

3. Removal of quantitative tightening

The Fed formally halted its balance sheet reduction, quantitative tightening (QT), as of 1 December 2025, ending a program that shrank assets by roughly US$2.4 trillion since mid-2022.

Traditionally, ending QT is seen as marginally negative for the US dollar because it stops the withdrawal of liquidity, can ease global funding conditions, and may reduce the scarcity that can support dollar demand. Put simply, more dollars in the system can soften the currency’s support at the margin, although outcomes have varied historically and often depend on broader financial conditions.

4. Interest rate differential

Interest rate differential IRD is likely to be a primary driver of US dollar strength, or otherwise, in the months ahead. The latest FOMC meeting delivered the expected 0.25% cut, with attention on guidance for what may come next.

Even after a softer-than-expected CPI print, markets have been reluctant to price aggressive near-term easing. At the time of writing, less than a 20% chance of a January cut is priced in, and it may be March before we see the next move.

The Fed is balancing sticky inflation against a jobs market under pressure, with the headline rate back at levels last seen in 2012. The practical takeaway is that a more accommodative stance may add to downward pressure on the US dollar.

Current expectations imply around two rate cuts through 2026, with the potential for further easing beyond that, broadly consistent with the median projections shown in the chart below. These are forecasts rather than guarantees, and they can shift as economic data and policy guidance evolve.

如果你在两年前买入任何一只铀矿股，大概率都赚到了钱。那时候是“风口来了猪都会飞”，只要沾上“核能”两个字，股价就跟着铀价一起涨。但站在2025年底，那种“闭眼买、随便涨”的好日子结束了。

2026年，铀矿投资将进入一个新的阶段——“拼内功”的阶段。有些公司会因为手里有真矿而一飞冲天，而有些只会讲故事的公司将会原形毕露。

最近发生了两件大事，一喜一忧。

‍第一件事：印度的“核能大门”终于开了（这是超级利好）

‍以前，全世界最大的核能市场是中国和欧美。但就在昨天，印度通过了一个叫《SHANTI法案》的新法律。简单说，这就像是给印度的核能市场松了绑。以前印度搞核电只能国家自己弄，效率低、资金少；现在法律允许塔塔、阿达尼这些印度财阀巨头进场，也允许外国技术进来。印度计划在未来20年把核电规模扩大10倍。

这对铀价意味着什么？意味着除了微软、亚马逊这些搞AI需要电力的科技巨头在抢铀，现在又多了一个拥有14亿人口的超级大买家。需求端简直是火上浇油。

‍第二件事：澳洲矿企Boss Energy暴雷（这是血的教训）

‍既然需求这么好，为什么今天铀矿股没有集体狂欢？因为澳洲的一家明星公司——Boss Energy股价腰斩后又暴跌了20%多。

为什么暴跌？简单说就是：牛皮吹破了。这家公司以前告诉大家，他们的Honeymoon矿山很好挖，成本很低。结果今天他们不得不承认，地底下的矿石情况比预想的差很多，原来的开采方案行不通，之前的赚钱计划作废，一切得推倒重来。

这给所有投资者敲响了警钟：铀价再高，如果你挖不出来，或者挖矿成本太高，那也是白搭。

‍2026年，普通人该怎么买？

‍基于上面这一正一反两个消息，明年的策略非常简单：买那些真正能把矿挖出来、卖出去的好公司；远离那些只会画大饼、还没证明自己的公司。以下是对几只热门股票的解读：1. 最稳的“定海神针”：Cameco (CCJ)

• 它是什么： 加拿大的巨无霸，行业老大。
• 投资逻辑： 如果你不想担惊受怕，买它就对了。它不仅有世界上最好的矿，还收购了西屋电气（造核反应堆的）。不管谁建核电站，都要找它买燃料。虽然它最近也遇到一点小技术问题减产，但那是“感冒”，不像Boss Energy是“重伤”。
• 评价： 核心配置。

‍2. 最具爆发力的“皇储”：NexGen Energy (NXE)

• 它是什么： 还没开始挖，但手里握着一个“金矿”。
• 投资逻辑： 它在加拿大的那个矿，品位极高，就像地底下埋着印钞机。现在只要等加拿大政府最后盖个章（审批通过），它就能开工。按照现在的进度，2026年初很可能就有好消息。一旦获批，它的价值会重估。
• 评价： 值得，要等待好消息落地。

‍3. 美国的“投机之王”：UEC

• 它是什么： 美国本土公司，非常擅长资本运作。
• 投资逻辑： 这家公司很有意思，它不仅自己挖矿，还特别喜欢在铀价便宜的时候囤货。它现在的仓库里堆满了铀。如果明年铀价突然暴涨，它赚得最快最多。而且它有“美国制造”的光环，美国政府现在很支持本土矿企。
• 评价： 有点激进，博取的短期暴涨。

‍4. 甚至有点危险的：Boss Energy (BOE)

• 它是什么： 刚刚暴雷的澳洲公司。
• 投资逻辑： 就像我前面说的，它承认了地质问题。解决这些问题可能需要一年甚至更久，而且不一定能解决好。
• 评价： 坚决不碰。 哪怕它跌了很多看起来很便宜，也不要去接“飞下来的刀子”。

‍5. 值得观察的：Paladin (PDN) 和 Deep Yellow (DYL)

• Paladin (PDN)： 它已经开始生产了，比Boss Energy强。但最近为了还债在调整财务结构，加上成本控制还需要观察。属于“比上不足，比下有余”。
• Deep Yellow (DYL)： 这是家好公司，老板是行业老兵，非常稳健。看到Boss Energy翻车，他们很聪明地推迟了做决定的时间，一定要把账算清楚再开工。这种谨慎在现在很难得，现在的价格是被错杀了，值得关注。

‍总结2026年的铀市场，不再是大家一起发财的宴席，而是一场“淘汰赛”。核能复兴的大趋势没有任何问题，印度的入局更是加了一把火。但是，地下的矿石不会骗人。作为投资者，我们要把钱投给那些确定性最高的公司（如Cameco、NexGen），而不是去赌那些看起来便宜但风险巨大的“故事股”。记住一句话：在牛市的下半场，安全比暴利更重要。

Donald Trump has officially declared the Maduro regime in Venezuela a foreign terrorist organisation and ordered a "total and complete blockade" of the country's sanctioned oil tankers.

The U.S. has positioned 11 warships in the Caribbean to enforce the blockade, which could remove 400,000 to 500,000 barrels daily from global supply.

The move sent crude prices jumping over 2% and sparked renewed concerns about supply stability heading into 2026.

White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles succinctly summarised the situation as: “Trump wants to keep on blowing boats up until Maduro cries uncle."

Brent crude jumped 2.4% to $60.33 per barrel, while WTI climbed 2.6% to $56.69.

If crude maintains its $60 per barrel price, analysts project the blockade, combined with potential Russian sanctions, could push prices toward $70 as Venezuela's already-devastated economy faces collapse.

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Bank of Japan to Hike Rates to Highest Level in Decades

The Bank of Japan is set to raise interest rates to their highest level in three decades this Friday, with Governor Kazuo Ueda expected to lift the benchmark rate from 0.5% to 0.75%.

While modest by global standards, this marks a landmark step in Japan's departure from decades of near-zero rates and unconventional easing.

The decision comes amid significant market turbulence. Japanese government bond yields have surged, with 30-year bonds hitting record highs and 10-year yields reaching 19-year peaks.

The volatility stems partly from concerns under new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who recently approved a $118 billion stimulus package with over 60% financed through borrowing.

While Friday's hike appears certain, policymakers have signalled caution as they push rates toward levels estimated between 1% and 2.5%.

Ueda's post-meeting press conference will be closely watched for signals about future increases.

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Micron Forecasts Blowout Earnings on Booming AI Market

Micron Technology is projecting second-quarter earnings of $8.42 per share, nearly double Wall Street's $4.78 estimate.

Micron shares surged 7% in after-hours trading as markets reacted to the news that the AI-driven memory chip race is showing no signs of slowing.

As one of only three major suppliers of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips alongside SK Hynix and Samsung, Micron sits at a chokepoint in AI infrastructure.

The HBM specialised chips are essential for training and deploying generative AI models, and current demand is dramatically outpacing supply.

CEO Sanjay Mehrotra revealed that supply tightness will extend beyond 2026, with Micron expecting to fulfil only 50-70% of key customer demand in the medium term.

Micron projects revenue of $18.70 billion this quarter versus analyst estimates of $14.20 billion. The company has retooled their operations toward AI applications, even dissolving its consumer "Crucial" brand to concentrate on AI data centre demand.

HBM chips are now the bottleneck in AI system performance, and suppliers who can deliver at scale have the potential to capture large amounts of value over the coming years.