市场资讯及洞察

FX markets enter the month influenced by uncertain growth momentum, inflation dynamics and central bank policy, yield sensitivity, and shifts in how markets are pricing geopolitical risk.

‍

Quick facts:

• USD remains primarily responsive to inflation data, and this may have overtaken growth as the main driver.
• JPY sensitivity to potential Bank of Japan (BOJ) action remains high, creating asymmetric responses to global rate moves and policy communication.
• EUR and AUD continue to trade reactively to global events and commodity price moves.
• Volatility may be episodic, clustering around key data releases rather than a single sustained directional trend.

‍

With central bank expectations still evolving into the first quarter (Q1), key releases and policy communication are likely to stay central to near-term FX pricing. In this environment, moves may cluster around scheduled events and headline risk, rather than build into a single dominant trend.

US dollar (USD)

Key data and events:

• Non-farm payrolls (Employment Situation, Dec 2025): 9 January 2026 Bureau of Labor Statistics
• CPI (Dec 2025): 13 January 2026 Bureau of Labor Statistics
• Fed rate decision: 27-28 January 2026 Federal Reserve
• Advance GDP (Q4): rescheduled (date TBA) U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

What to watch:

USD performance remains closely tied to inflation data and what it could mean for Federal Reserve policy expectations. Market pricing can shift quickly around CPI and labour-market outcomes, particularly where outcomes affect how investors perceive the timing and pace of any policy changes.

Jobs data and GDP numbers will be watched as gauges of growth momentum. The start of the US earnings season may also influence FX indirectly through its impact on equity performance, risk sentiment, and yield expectations, rather than acting as a direct currency driver.

Key chart: US dollar index (DXY) weekly chart

Periods of market uncertainty can support USD demand around prior support areas near 97, while the 100 region may continue to act as a reference point for resistance, including where it aligns with commonly watched moving averages (noting technical indicators can fail).

A break in either direction may reflect shifting expectations about how different central banks will respond to the next run of inflation and growth data.

‍

Euro (EUR)

Key data and events:

• CPI (Euro area HICP, Dec 2025 reference period): 19 January 2026 European Central Bank
• ECB rate decision: 5 February 2026 European Central Bank

What to watch:

European Central Bank (ECB) messaging on policy direction and inflation remains key. A prolonged hold is one scenario market participants continue to debate, but outcomes are likely to remain data-dependent and sensitive to changes in the growth and inflation backdrop.

The geopolitical situation in Ukraine will also remain in focus.

Key chart: EUR/USD weekly chart

Differences in likely central bank direction could support a test of the top end of the current multi-month range near 1.18. A sustained break above that level would be technically significant.

For now, price may stay range-bound until there is clearer guidance on policy direction on both sides of the Atlantic.

‍

Japanese yen (JPY)

Key data and events:

• BOJ policy decision: 22–23 January 2026 Bank of Japan
• Tokyo core CPI (Ku-area of Tokyo, preliminary; Dec 2025 reference month): 23 January 2026 Statistics Bureau of Japan

What to watch:

Following the BOJ’s December rate rise, markets appear to be weighing the likelihood of further action in Q1. Whether the January meeting delivers another move remains uncertain and may depend on incoming inflation and wage signals, as well as BOJ communication.

Data released ahead of the decision may be important in shaping expectations.

Key chart: GBP/JPY daily chart

As of 7 January 2026, GBPJPY has traded around the 211.50 area, near levels last seen in 2008. Continued consolidation may suggest fresh drivers are needed to extend gains.

If the cross fails to move higher, a retracement toward 210.00 is possible. If expectations for BOJ action rise, further selling could extend toward more established support near 208.00.

‍

Australian dollar (AUD)

Key data and events:

• CPI (Complete Monthly CPI; Nov 2025 reference month): 7 January 2026 Australian Bureau of Statistics
• Employment (Labour Force; Dec 2025 reference month): 22 January 2026, Australian Bureau of Statistics
• RBA rate decision: 3 February 2026 (Monetary Policy Board meeting 2–3 February) Reserve Bank of Australia

AUD continues to behave as a proxy for global growth sentiment and commodity demand.

Stabilisation in Chinese data, firmer commodity prices, and expectations around the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy path may be providing relative support for AUD. Sensitivity to broader risk conditions remains high.

Key chart: EUR/AUD daily chart

Moves in commodity prices have coincided with a sharp fall in EURAUD since the 31 December close, breaking down out of the prior range. The next key level to the downside sits at 1.7305.

The area around 1.7305 may help indicate whether selling pressure is continuing or whether momentum is fading for now. Near-term commodity price moves are likely to remain important.

‍

Bottom line

FX conditions this month may remain reactive, with volatility clustering around key data releases rather than a sustained directional trend. With Q1 central bank expectations still forming, price moves may be sharper around the calendar, policy communication, and geopolitical headlines.

Global markets are calm but alert in response to the US–Venezuela situation, with US and European equities holding near or testing record levels.

Gains in energy, defence and materials suggest selective positioning. Modest strength in gold and lower yields is indicative of hedging rather than market fear, with oil prices remaining muted.

‍

Quick facts

• US and European equity indices are holding near record highs despite geopolitical headlines. Volatility remains low through the trading session.
• Energy and defence stocks are leading gains, with materials stocks responding to mild gains in previous metals, reflecting selective risk positioning.
• Gold is edging higher, and government bond yields have dipped slightly, signalling mild hedging.
• Oil prices remain range-bound, suggesting no immediate supply shock is being priced in.
• Markets could be sensitive to further geopolitical developments, with any escalation a major potential risk to sentiment.

‍

US–Venezuela tensions escalation has prompted heightened geopolitical scrutiny across the globe, not only related to this action itself but other geopolitical longer-term implications. 

There has been a muted and measured response across global financial markets so far, with little significant negative impact evident for now. 

Some sectors have had noteworthy gains, whilst the impact on other asset classes has again been calm.

US equities 

What’s happening:

US equity markets are showing resilience, with the S&P 500 holding near recent highs and the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 1.23%, pushing into fresh record territory.

What to watch:

• If US indices continue to hold above recent breakout levels, then markets are reinforcing the view that geopolitical risk remains manageable.
• Rising volatility, if seen in the VIX index, may indicate that sentiment may be shifting from selective risk-taking to broader caution.

‍

European equities

What’s happening:‍

European markets are modestly higher, with the DAX trading at record levels and the FTSE 100 closing over 10,000 for the first time.

What to watch:

• For now, European indices appear to be tracking US strength, suggesting investors are viewing the event as externally contained. Similar sectors are performing well, as seen in overnight US equity performance. 
• It is unlikely that we will see any specific regional response, though tensions related to the US administration's narrative around Greenland is noteworthy.

‍

Specific sector moves

‍Energy stocks

What’s happening:‍

Energy stocks are leading equity gains across the US (e.g. Chevron Corp – CVX up 5.1%), and European markets, with the potential for increased influence in Venezuela of US oil companies.

What to watch:

• While energy equities outperform while oil prices remain range-bound, then markets are pricing geopolitical caution rather than immediate disruption. If this is accompanied by a rise in crude prices rise together, then it may be indicative of supply risk
  

‍

Defence stocks

What’s happening:‍

Defence stocks are attracting some investor interest. (E.g. Lockheed Martin – LMT up 2.92%, General Dynamics – GD up  3.54%).

What to watch:

• Continued outperformance with other sector equity drawdowns may be indicative of some escalation concerns.

‍

‍Materials & miners

What’s happening:‍

Materials and mining stocks are finding support alongside modest gains in precious metals and record highs in copper. The S&P Metals & Mining ETF – XME closed 3.28% up.

What to watch:

• Ongoing materials strength alongside stable growth indicators, then the current move may reflect real-asset demand rather than simply a hedging approach. If gold accelerates higher while base metals fail to follow, then investor defensive positioning may be overtaking confidence in growth.

‍

Crude oil

What’s happening:‍

Oil prices remain subdued, with the futures trading at $58.40, within recent ranges, despite the unfolding geopolitical situation. 

What to watch:

• Venezuelan influence on global oil production is not substantial enough on its own to create any major issues in the short term with global oil supply at high levels.
• As a result, the impact is more likely to remain muted, but any significant rises in oil price across multiple sessions may be indicative of some market concerns related to increases in geopolitical-influenced supply expectations.

‍

Gold

What’s happening:‍

Gold prices are currently edging higher towards all-time highs, reflecting a modest safe-haven play. The closing price for Gold futures is $4454, breaching the psychologically important $4400.

What to watch:

• If gold continues to rise gradually while equities remain firm, then the move reflects a standard hedging approach to assets rather than fear. 
• A spike in gold price alongside falling equities and rising volatility, maybe a signal that market risk may be increasing.

‍

Treasury yields

What’s happening:‍

Yields have eased slightly, indicating a potential selective defensive positioning in asset choice by institutional investors. (10-year Treasury yields at 4.153%, down 0.36%)

What to watch:

• If yields should fall sharply alongside equity weakness, then markets may be shifting toward a risk-off approach.

‍

What to watch next

• If asset-class correlations remain contained, then markets are maintaining confidence in the broader macro backdrop. 
• If tensions escalate into broader regional instability or prolonged policy responses, Sharp movements across equities, bonds, and commodities may signify a reassessment of risk.
• If geopolitical developments fail to translate into sustained price dislocation, then the current response is likely to fade.

‍

(All prices quoted correct as of 4.30pm NY time after market close).

在 Pine Script 中，for 循环是一种非常重要且高频使用的控制结构，主要用于在脚本中执行重复、可控次数的计算或操作。无论是遍历数组、逐项计算指标，还是在指定范围内生成图形元素，for 循环都能让代码更加简洁、高效和可读。与简单的条件判断不同，for 循环通过计数器精确控制迭代次数，使开发者能够清楚地掌握脚本的执行流程。理解 for 循环的语法结构、执行机制以及与 continue、break 等关键字的配合方式，是掌握 Pine Script 进阶编程的关键一步。本文将从基础概念入手，结合示例，系统地介绍 Pine Script 中 for 循环的用法与注意事项。

‍

for 循环语句用于创建一种计数控制型循环，它通过一个计数器变量来管理其局部代码块的重复执行。计数器从预先定义的初始值开始，在每次迭代结束后按固定的步长递增或递减。当计数器达到指定的最终值时，循环停止迭代。

‍

在 Pine Script 中，for 循环使用以下语法来定义：

‍

[variables = | :=] for counter = from_num to to_num [by step_num]

    statements | continue | break

return_expression

‍

其中，以下部分共同定义了循环头（loop header）：

• counter 表示计数器变量，可以是任何合法的标识符。循环在每次迭代后，都会将该变量的值以固定的步长（step_num）从初始值（from_num）向最终值（to_num）递增或递减。最后一次可能的迭代发生在该变量的值达到 to_num 时。
• from_num 是计数器变量在第一次迭代时的初始值。
• to_num 是循环头允许进行新一次迭代的最终计数器值。循环会按 step_num 的幅度调整计数器的值，直到其达到或越过该值。如果脚本在某次循环迭代中修改了 to_num，循环头会使用新的值来控制后续允许的迭代次数。
• step_num 是一个正数，表示计数器在每次迭代后递增或递减的数值幅度，直到达到或越过 to_num。如果 from_num 大于初始的 to_num，循环会在每次迭代后从计数器中减去该数值；否则，循环会在每次迭代后将该数值加到计数器上。默认值为 1。

‍

下面这个简单的脚本演示了一个 for 循环：在最后一根历史 K 线执行脚本时，循环会在未来的柱索引位置绘制多个标签。该循环的计数器从 0 开始，每次增加 1，直到达到 10，此时执行最后一次迭代。

‍

‍

下面对这段 Pine Script 代码进行逐行解析。

声明这是一个指标脚本，并将指标名称设置为for loop example 1。该名称会显示在 TradingView 的指标列表和图表上。

设置一个条件判断语句，barstate.islastconfirmedhistory 在最后一根已确认的历史 K 线上返回 true。这样可以确保后面的代码只执行一次，避免在每根 K 线上重复创建标签。

定义一个 for 循环。计数器变量 i 从 0 开始，每次递增 1，直到 10 为止，一共执行 11 次迭代。

• bar_index + i：标签绘制在当前 K 线之后第 i 根柱子的位置
• 0：标签在价格轴上的 y 坐标
• str.tostring(i)：将当前计数器 i 转换为字符串，作为标签文本
• textcolor = color.white：设置文字颜色为白色
• size = size.large：设置文字大小为大号

‍

下面再举一个复杂一点的例子，下面的脚本用于计算并绘制 开盘价的成交量加权移动平均线（VWMA），计算范围为指定数量的 K 线。随后，脚本使用一个向下计数的 for 循环，将最后一根历史 K 线的数值与之前各根 K 线的数值进行比较，比较过程从所设定回看窗口中最早的一根 K 线开始。在每一次循环迭代中，脚本都会获取某一根过去 K 线的 vwmaOpen 值，计算它与当前 K 线数值之间的差值，并在该历史 K 线的开盘价位置通过标签显示计算结果。

‍

‍

下面对这段 Pine Script代码进行逐行解析：

‍

第二行，声明这是一个指标脚本：

• "for loop example 2"：指标名称
• "VWMA differences"：指标的简短标题
• Overlay = true：将指标绘制在主图（价格图）上
• max_labels_count = 500：允许最多绘制 500 个标签，防止标签数量超限报错

‍

第四行，定义一个常量颜色 DISPLAY_COLOR，用于统一设置指标线和标签的显示颜色。const 表示该变量在脚本中不可被修改。

第六行，创建一个整数输入参数 maLengthInput：

• 默认值为 20
• 显示名称为 “VWMA length”
• 最小值为 1
• 该参数用于控制 VWMA 的计算周期长度。

第八行，定义另一个输入参数lookbackInput：

• 默认回看 15 根 K 线
• 最小值 1，最大值 500
• 用于决定向过去比较多少根 K 线的数据。

第十行，计算开盘价的成交量加权移动平均线（VWMA）：

• 使用 open 作为数据源
• 计算周期由 maLengthInput 决定
• 结果保存在 vwmaOpen 变量中。

第十二行，判断当前是否为最后一根已确认的历史 K 线。

第十四行，定义一个向下计数的 for 循环：

• 计数器 i 从 lookbackInput 开始
• 每次递减 1
• 直到 i == 1 为止
  用于逐根回看历史 K 线。

第十六行，计算差值：

• vwmaOpen[i]：i 根 K 线之前的 VWMA 值
• vwmaOpen：当前 K 线的 VWMA 值
• 两者相减，得到历史值与当前值之间的差。

第十八行，将差值转换为显示文本：

• 如果差值大于 0，在前面加上 “+”
• 使用 str.tostring 将数值保留两位小数
  最终生成用于标签显示的字符串。

第二十行，在历史 K 线上绘制标签：

• bar_index - i：定位到 i 根 K 线之前
• open[i]：标签绘制在该 K 线的开盘价位置
• displayText：标签文本内容
• textcolor = color.white：文字颜色
• color = DISPLAY_COLOR：标签背景色
• style 和 size：设置标签样式和大小

‍

第二十五行，将 vwmaOpen 以曲线形式绘制在图表上：

• 线条名称为 “VWMA”
• 使用统一的显示颜色
• 线宽为 2

‍

‍

最终效果如上所示：在主图中，脚本会对过去 15 根 K 线逐一计算其 VWMA 历史值与当前 VWMA 值之间的差异，并将结果以标签形式直接标注在对应的 K 线位置上。

‍

本文围绕 Pine Script 中的 for 循环 展开，介绍了其基本语法、计数方式以及在实际指标中的应用。通过 VWMA 示例，演示了如何利用 for 循环回看历史 K 线、逐一计算并对比数据，并将结果直观地展示在主图上。同时，也指出了 overlay = true、barstate.islastconfirmedhistory 等常见但关键的细节问题。掌握 for 循环的正确用法，有助于编写更高效、清晰且可维护的 Pine Script 指标代码。

‍

January’s market action often matters more than simply marking the opening of the calendar year. Institutional positioning resets, testing of economic assumptions, and early price moves reflect how market participants interpret the first meaningful signals of the year.

While January rarely determines full-year outcomes, it frequently shapes the narratives markets carry into the first quarter (Q1).

Four critical levers: growth, labour, inflation, and policy, can provide an early indication of how markets are processing and prioritising incoming information.

‍

Growth: manufacturing PMIs

January’s first growth test comes from the manufacturing surveys, with markets watching whether signals from S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing PMI tell a consistent story.

Key dates:

• ISM Manufacturing PMI: 5 January, 10:00 AM (ET)/ 6 January, 1:00 AM (AEDT)

What markets look for:

Attention often centres on new orders as a forward-looking indicator of demand, alongside prices paid for early insight into cost pressures.

Broad strength across both surveys would support the narrative that the growth momentum seen toward the end of 2025 may extend into early 2026, easing some concerns about a sharper slowdown. Weaker or conflicting readings would keep the growth outlook uncertain, rather than decisively negative.

How it tends to show up in markets:

Firmer growth signals often appear first in higher short-dated Treasury yields. Rising yields can tighten financial conditions, weigh on equity valuations, and support the USD, with spillover effects across foreign exchange (FX) and commodity markets.

‍

Labour: job openings and payrolls

While early-January Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) often drive short-term volatility, JOLTS job openings may be more influential in shaping January’s policy narrative.

Key dates:

• JOLTS Job Openings: 7 January, 10:00 AM (ET)/ 8 January, 1:00 AM (AEDT)
• Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP): 9 January, 8:30 AM (ET)/ 10 January, 12:30 AM (AEDT)

What markets look for:

Markets often treat JOLTS as a clearer indicator of underlying labour demand than month-to-month hiring flows.

A continued drift lower in openings would support the view that labour demand is easing in an orderly way, reinforcing confidence that inflation pressures can continue to moderate. A rebound or stalled decline would suggest labour conditions remain firmer than expected.

Market sensitivities:

For markets, easing labour demand typically supports lower short-dated yields and a softer USD, while persistent tightness can push yields higher, strengthen the USD, and increase volatility across rate-sensitive assets.

‍

Inflation: PPI and CPI

Key Dates:

• PPI: 14 January, 8:30 AM (ET)/ 15 January, 12:30 AM (AEDT)
• CPI (December 2025 data): 15 January, 8:30 AM (ET)/ 16 January, 12:30 AM (AEDT)

The inflation signal can be read as a pipeline from producer prices to consumer inflation. Markets are watching whether producer-level cost pressures continue to fade or begin to re-emerge.

What markets look for:

Core PPI, particularly services-linked components, provides an early indication of cost momentum. Core CPI breadth may help determine whether inflation is continuing to cool or showing signs of persistence.

A softer pipeline would reinforce confidence that disinflation can extend into early 2026, increasing the scope for a potential March policy adjustment. Stickier CPI readings above 3% would raise questions about the durability of recent progress.

How rates and the USD often react

Market reaction tends to be led by yields. Cooling inflation pressure usually pulls short-dated yields lower and softens the USD, while persistent inflation risks can push yields higher and tighten financial conditions.

‍

Policy: January FOMC meeting

By the time the Federal Reserve meets at the end of January, markets will have processed the early growth, labour, and inflation signals of the year.

Key Dates:

• FOMC rate decision: 29 January, 2:00 PM (ET)/ 30 January, 6:00 AM (AEDT)

What markets look for:

A policy change is unlikely this month, but how those signals are framed in the statement and press conference still matters. With January cut expectations priced well below 20%, attention is on whether expectations for a March move, currently around 50%, begin to shift.

Confidence that inflation and labour pressures are easing would typically support lower yields and a softer USD. A more cautious tone could lift yields, strengthen the USD, and tighten global financial conditions.

Putting it all together

January’s data acts as condition-setters rather than decision points. The practical takeaway lies in how markets respond as those conditions become clearer:

If growth and labour soften while inflation continues to ease, markets may lean toward a more constructive risk backdrop, with Treasury yields remaining the key guide and expectations for policy easing later in Q1 firming.

If growth holds up and inflation proves sticky, a more cautious posture may be warranted, with heightened sensitivity to Treasury yields, USD strength, and pressure on equity valuations and rate-sensitive commodities.

Asia starts the week with a fresh geopolitical shock that is already being framed in oil terms, not just security terms. The first-order move may be a repricing of risk premia and volatility across energy and macro, while markets wait to see whether this becomes a durable physical disruption or a fast-fading headline premium.

At a glance

• What happened: US officials said the US carried out “Operation Absolute Resolve”, including strikes around Caracas, and that Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro and his wife were taken into US custody and flown to the United States (subject to ongoing verification against the cited reporting).
• What markets may focus on now: Headline-driven risk premia and volatility, especially in products and heavy-crude-sensitive spreads, rather than a clean “missing barrels” shock.
• What is not happening yet: Early pricing has so far looked more like a headline risk premium than a confirmed physical supply shock, though this can change quickly, with analysts pointing to ample global supply as a possible cap on sustained upside.
• Next 24 to 72 hours: Market participants are likely to focus on the shape of the oil “quarantine”, the UN track, and whether this stays “one and done” or becomes open-ended.
• Australia and Asia hook: AUD as a risk barometer, Asia refinery margins in diesel and heavy, and shipping and insurance where the price can show up in friction before it shows up in benchmarks.

What happened, facts fast

Before anyone had time to workshop the talking points, there were strikes, there was a raid, and there was a custody transfer. US officials say the operation culminated in Maduro and his wife being flown to the United States, where court proceedings are expected.

Then came the line that turned a foreign policy story into a markets story. President Trump publicly suggested the US would “run” Venezuela for now, explicitly tying the mission to oil.

Almost immediately after that came a message-discipline correction. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the US would not govern Venezuela day to day, but would press for changes through an oil “quarantine” or blockade.

That tension, between maximalist presidential rhetoric and a more bureaucratically describable “quarantine”, is where the uncertainty lives. Uncertainty is what gets priced first.

Why this is price relevant now

What’s new versus known for positioning

What’s new, and price relevant, is that the scale and outcome are not incremental. A major military operation, a claimed removal of Venezuela’s leadership from the country, and a US-led custody transfer are not the sort of things markets can safely treat as noise.

Second, the oil framing is explicit. Even if you assume the language gets sanded down later, the stated lever is petroleum. Flows, enforcement, and pressure via exports.

Third, the embargo is not just a talking point anymore. Reporting says PDVSA has begun asking some joint ventures to cut output because exports have been halted and storage is tightening, with heavy-crude and diluent constraints featuring prominently.

What’s still unknown, and where volatility comes from

Key unknowns include how strict enforcement is on water, what exemptions look like in practice, how stable the on-the-ground situation is, and which countries recognise what comes next. Those are not philosophical questions. Those are the inputs for whether this is a temporary risk premium or a durable regime shift.

Political and legal reaction, why this drives tail risk

The fastest way to understand the tail here is to watch who calls this illegal, and who calls it effective, then ask what those camps can actually do.

Internationally, reaction has been fast, with emphasis on international law and the UN Charter from key partners, and UN processes in view. In the US, lawmakers and commentators have begun debating the legal basis, including questions of authority and war powers. That matters for markets because it helps define whether this is a finite operation with an aftershock, or the opening chapter of a rolling policy regime that keeps generating headlines.

Market mechanism, the core “so what”

Here’s the key thing about oil shocks. Sometimes the headline is the shock. Sometimes the plumbing is the shock.

Volumes and cushion

Venezuela is not the world’s swing producer. Its production is meaningful at the margin, but not enough by itself to imply “the world runs out of oil tomorrow”. The risk is not just volume. It is duration, disruption, and friction.

The market’s mental brake is spare capacity and the broader supply backdrop. Reporting over the weekend pointed to ample global supply as a likely cap on sustained gains, even as prices respond to risk.

Quality and transmission

Venezuela’s barrels are disproportionately extra heavy, and extra heavy crude is not just “oil”. It is oil that often needs diluent or condensate to move and process. That is exactly the kind of constraint that shows up as grade-specific tightness and product effects.

Reporting has highlighted diluent constraints and storage pressure as exports stall. Translation: even if Brent stays relatively civil, watch cracks, diesel and distillates, and any signals that “heavy substitution” is getting expensive.

Products transmission, volatility first, pump later

If crude is the headline, products are the receipt, because products tell you what refiners can actually do with the crude they can actually get. The short-run pattern is usually: futures reprice risk fast, implied volatility pops; physical flows adapt more slowly; retail follows with a lag, and often with less drama than the first weekend of commentary promised.

For Australia and Asia desks, the bigger point is transmission. Energy moves can influence inflation expectations, which can feed into rates pricing and the dollar, and in turn affect Asia FX and broader risk, though the links are not mechanical and can vary by regime.

Some market participants also monitor refined-product benchmarks, including gasoline contracts such as reformulated gasoline blendstock, as part of that chain rather than as a stand-alone signal.

Historical context, the two patterns that matter

Two patterns matter more than any single episode.

Pattern A: scare premium. Big headline, limited lasting outage. A spike, then a fade as the market decides the plumbing still works.

Pattern B: structural. Real barrels are lost or restrictions lock in; the forward curve reprices; the premium migrates from front-month drama to whole-curve reality.

One commonly observed pattern is that when it is only premium, volatility tends to spike more than price. When it is structural, levels and time spreads move more durably.

The three possible market reactions

Contained, rhetorical: quarantine exists but porous; diplomacy churns; no second-wave actions. Premium bleeds out; volatility mean-reverts.

Embargo tightens, exports curtailed, quality shock: enforcement hardens; PDVSA cuts deepen; diluent constraints bite. Heavies bid; cracks and distillates react; freight and insurance add friction.

Escalation, prolonged control risk: “not governing” language loses credibility; repeated operations; allies fracture further. Longer-duration premium; broader risk-off impulse across FX and rates.

Australia and Asia angle

For Sydney, Singapore, and Hong Kong screens, this is less about Venezuelan retail politics and more about how a Western Hemisphere intervention bleeds into Asia pricing.

AUD is the quick and dirty risk proxy. Asia refiners care about the kind of oil and the friction cost. Heavy crude plus diluent dependency makes substitution non-trivial. If enforcement looks aggressive, the “price” can show up in freight, insurance, and spreads before it shows up in headline Brent.

Catalyst calendar, key developments markets may monitor

• US policy detail: quarantine rules, enforcement posture, exemptions.
• UN and allies: statements that signal whether this becomes a long legitimacy fight.
• PDVSA operations: storage, shut-ins, diluent availability, floating storage signals.
• OPEC+ signalling: whether the group stays committed to stability if spreads blow out.

2025 年即将收官，全球金融市场经历了一段复杂且充满挑战的时期。从宏观经济到货币政策，从资本市场到地缘政治，多重因素交织影响着市场走向。进入 2026 年，市场关注点正从“方向判断”转向“节奏与兑现”。

‍

一、宏观经济：全球增长放缓但整体稳健

回顾 2025 年，全球经济的整体状态可以概括为 “低速增长伴随高不确定性”。

在经历了高通胀和高利率的双重挤压后，主要经济体的增长动能普遍减弱。美国经济表现相对突出，消费和服务业依然提供支撑，但制造业和企业投资明显放慢；欧洲经济受到高融资成本和财政空间受限影响，增长乏力；中国则在结构调整背景下，通过政策托底稳定预期，政策重心更多倾向于稳增长、防控风险以及提振市场信心。新兴市场在美元压力缓解后有所改善，但内部差异加大。

从全球层面看，2025 年并不是一个“强复苏”的年份，这种状态为金融市场提供了有限但尚可的基本面支撑。经济虽无大幅反弹，但也未出现系统性衰退，市场在这种不确定的环境中寻求平衡。

‍

二、通胀与利率：从核心主线转为背景变量

如果说 2022–2024 年金融市场的核心矛盾是“通胀”，那么到了 2025 年，这一问题的重要性明显下降。

从 2025 年下半年开始，通胀不再是市场唯一的关注焦点，但依然是政策制定和资产价格的重要 “底层约束”。商品价格的剧烈波动趋于平稳，但服务业通胀仍保持一定黏性，工资增长速度虽有所放缓，但并未出现明显下滑。

这一变化促使主要央行逐步从 “强力压制通胀” 转向在 “增长与通胀间寻找平衡”，为 2026 年货币政策转向降息周期奠定了基础。

‍

三、货币政策：降息周期开启，但并非一条直线

美联储在确认通胀趋势性回落后，逐步启动降息，但态度始终谨慎，反复强调政策将取决于经济和数据变化；欧洲央行因经济疲弱，更早释放宽松信号；澳洲、英国等央行则在通胀与增长之间保持平衡；日本央行继续推进政策正常化，但节奏缓慢，日元汇率成为市场关注重点。

整体而言，2025 年的货币政策环境呈现出 “方向一致、节奏分化” 的特点。这也意味着，市场不再是单边押注宽松，而是需要不断调整对利率路径的判断。

‍

四、资本市场：从情绪驱动回归基本面

2025 年资本市场的一个显著特征是 AI 及相关科技板块的估值经历了明显的重构。年初至年中，科技和人工智能相关概念股表现强劲，但下半年随着市场关注点转向盈利兑现，部分高估值资产出现调整。高资本开支和现金流压力成为估值波动的主要诱因。

与此同时，价值股、红利股以及现金流稳定的行业在年末重新受到投资者青睐，市场风格出现明显切换。这表明投资者从 “故事驱动” 转向 “盈利驱动”，更加注重基本面质量。

债券市场方面，降息预期推动收益率整体下行，但财政赤字和债务规模的扩大限制了长期收益率的下行空间。收益率曲线形态的变化成为宏观经济预期的重要信号。进入 2026 年初，债券市场仍将在政策宽松预期与财政可持续性之间寻求平衡。

外汇市场方面，美元在降息周期背景下整体偏弱，但其避险属性依然保持吸引力。日元和欧元等则受政策差异和经济基本面的显著影响，波动加剧。黄金价格则在降息预期、地缘政治紧张和资产配置多元化需求的共同推动下，维持较高关注度。

‍

五、地缘政治：长期风险并未退场

地缘政治虽并未成为持续性的市场主线，但始终以“潜在风险”的形式存在。

贸易摩擦、科技限制、区域冲突和能源安全问题，使市场对全球供应链和金融体系稳定性的担忧难以彻底消散。这些因素并未每天影响价格，却在关键时刻迅速放大市场波动，成为风险定价中不可忽视的一部分。

‍

六、展望 2026 年：开年首月的关键观察点

进入 2026 年，市场将从年末的流动性和仓位调整阶段，逐步回归对基本面的关注。开年首周，以下几个方面尤为重要：

宏观数据

• 1 月 5 日：美国 ISM 制造业 PMI（12 月数据） → 观察经济是否放缓
• 1月6日：日本央行账户数据（BOJ Accounts）
  → 反映日本央行的货币政策操作与流动性投放情况，市场将据此评估政策正常化节奏及其对日元、日债和全球资金流动的潜在影响
• 1 月 7 日：美国 JOLTS 职位空缺 → 劳动力市场状况
• 1 月 9 日：美国非农就业报告 → 就业、失业率、平均时薪，影响美联储降息预期
• 1月14日：美国 PPI（2025 年 11 月，含 10 月延迟数据）
  → 观察生产端通胀压力变化，为 CPI 与美联储政策预期提供前瞻信号
• 1 月初：中国官方制造业 PMI / 财新 PMI → 全球需求与风险偏好参考
• 1 月 15 日：美国 CPI 通胀数据（12 月）→ 判断通胀回落是否持续
• 1 月 30 日：美国 PPI（2025 年 12 月，常规发布）
  → 判断年末通胀走势及其对 2026 年货币政策路径的影响
• 1 月 31 日：CME 比特币期货合约到期→ 可能引发加密资产波动

‍

 央行动态

• 无利率决议，但美联储官员讲话 → 指导全年政策预期

风险偏好

• 资金在防御资产与风险资产间流动
• 美债收益率曲线与 VIX 波动率 → 观察市场风险偏好变化

 政策与地缘政治不确定性

• 财政、产业、贸易政策及地缘事件可能影响市场定价

‍

总结 

2025 年，全球金融市场完成了一次重要的过渡：从高通胀、高利率向降息周期初段的转变；从单一逻辑，走向多因素博弈。进入 2026 年，投资者面临的核心挑战不再仅仅是判断市场的大方向，而是如何在高不确定性环境中实现更精细、更动态的风险定价和资产配置。关注宏观经济数据、政策信号、资本市场结构变化及地缘政治风险，将是制定投资策略的关键。

‍