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Asia open: what matters after the Venezuela headlines

Asia starts the week with a fresh geopolitical shock that is already being framed in oil terms, not just security terms. The first-order move may be a repricing of risk premia and volatility across energy and macro, while markets wait to see whether this becomes a durable physical disruption or a fast-fading headline premium.

At a glance

• What happened: US officials said the US carried out “Operation Absolute Resolve”, including strikes around Caracas, and that Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro and his wife were taken into US custody and flown to the United States (subject to ongoing verification against the cited reporting).
• What markets may focus on now: Headline-driven risk premia and volatility, especially in products and heavy-crude-sensitive spreads, rather than a clean “missing barrels” shock.
• What is not happening yet: Early pricing has so far looked more like a headline risk premium than a confirmed physical supply shock, though this can change quickly, with analysts pointing to ample global supply as a possible cap on sustained upside.
• Next 24 to 72 hours: Market participants are likely to focus on the shape of the oil “quarantine”, the UN track, and whether this stays “one and done” or becomes open-ended.
• Australia and Asia hook: AUD as a risk barometer, Asia refinery margins in diesel and heavy, and shipping and insurance where the price can show up in friction before it shows up in benchmarks.

What happened, facts fast

Before anyone had time to workshop the talking points, there were strikes, there was a raid, and there was a custody transfer. US officials say the operation culminated in Maduro and his wife being flown to the United States, where court proceedings are expected.

Then came the line that turned a foreign policy story into a markets story. President Trump publicly suggested the US would “run” Venezuela for now, explicitly tying the mission to oil.

Almost immediately after that came a message-discipline correction. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the US would not govern Venezuela day to day, but would press for changes through an oil “quarantine” or blockade.

That tension, between maximalist presidential rhetoric and a more bureaucratically describable “quarantine”, is where the uncertainty lives. Uncertainty is what gets priced first.

Why this is price relevant now

What’s new versus known for positioning

What’s new, and price relevant, is that the scale and outcome are not incremental. A major military operation, a claimed removal of Venezuela’s leadership from the country, and a US-led custody transfer are not the sort of things markets can safely treat as noise.

Second, the oil framing is explicit. Even if you assume the language gets sanded down later, the stated lever is petroleum. Flows, enforcement, and pressure via exports.

Third, the embargo is not just a talking point anymore. Reporting says PDVSA has begun asking some joint ventures to cut output because exports have been halted and storage is tightening, with heavy-crude and diluent constraints featuring prominently.

What’s still unknown, and where volatility comes from

Key unknowns include how strict enforcement is on water, what exemptions look like in practice, how stable the on-the-ground situation is, and which countries recognise what comes next. Those are not philosophical questions. Those are the inputs for whether this is a temporary risk premium or a durable regime shift.

Political and legal reaction, why this drives tail risk

The fastest way to understand the tail here is to watch who calls this illegal, and who calls it effective, then ask what those camps can actually do.

Internationally, reaction has been fast, with emphasis on international law and the UN Charter from key partners, and UN processes in view. In the US, lawmakers and commentators have begun debating the legal basis, including questions of authority and war powers. That matters for markets because it helps define whether this is a finite operation with an aftershock, or the opening chapter of a rolling policy regime that keeps generating headlines.

Market mechanism, the core “so what”

Here’s the key thing about oil shocks. Sometimes the headline is the shock. Sometimes the plumbing is the shock.

Volumes and cushion

Venezuela is not the world’s swing producer. Its production is meaningful at the margin, but not enough by itself to imply “the world runs out of oil tomorrow”. The risk is not just volume. It is duration, disruption, and friction.

The market’s mental brake is spare capacity and the broader supply backdrop. Reporting over the weekend pointed to ample global supply as a likely cap on sustained gains, even as prices respond to risk.

Quality and transmission

Venezuela’s barrels are disproportionately extra heavy, and extra heavy crude is not just “oil”. It is oil that often needs diluent or condensate to move and process. That is exactly the kind of constraint that shows up as grade-specific tightness and product effects.

Reporting has highlighted diluent constraints and storage pressure as exports stall. Translation: even if Brent stays relatively civil, watch cracks, diesel and distillates, and any signals that “heavy substitution” is getting expensive.

Products transmission, volatility first, pump later

If crude is the headline, products are the receipt, because products tell you what refiners can actually do with the crude they can actually get. The short-run pattern is usually: futures reprice risk fast, implied volatility pops; physical flows adapt more slowly; retail follows with a lag, and often with less drama than the first weekend of commentary promised.

For Australia and Asia desks, the bigger point is transmission. Energy moves can influence inflation expectations, which can feed into rates pricing and the dollar, and in turn affect Asia FX and broader risk, though the links are not mechanical and can vary by regime.

Some market participants also monitor refined-product benchmarks, including gasoline contracts such as reformulated gasoline blendstock, as part of that chain rather than as a stand-alone signal.

Historical context, the two patterns that matter

Two patterns matter more than any single episode.

Pattern A: scare premium. Big headline, limited lasting outage. A spike, then a fade as the market decides the plumbing still works.

Pattern B: structural. Real barrels are lost or restrictions lock in; the forward curve reprices; the premium migrates from front-month drama to whole-curve reality.

One commonly observed pattern is that when it is only premium, volatility tends to spike more than price. When it is structural, levels and time spreads move more durably.

The three possible market reactions

Contained, rhetorical: quarantine exists but porous; diplomacy churns; no second-wave actions. Premium bleeds out; volatility mean-reverts.

Embargo tightens, exports curtailed, quality shock: enforcement hardens; PDVSA cuts deepen; diluent constraints bite. Heavies bid; cracks and distillates react; freight and insurance add friction.

Escalation, prolonged control risk: “not governing” language loses credibility; repeated operations; allies fracture further. Longer-duration premium; broader risk-off impulse across FX and rates.

Australia and Asia angle

For Sydney, Singapore, and Hong Kong screens, this is less about Venezuelan retail politics and more about how a Western Hemisphere intervention bleeds into Asia pricing.

AUD is the quick and dirty risk proxy. Asia refiners care about the kind of oil and the friction cost. Heavy crude plus diluent dependency makes substitution non-trivial. If enforcement looks aggressive, the “price” can show up in freight, insurance, and spreads before it shows up in headline Brent.

Catalyst calendar, key developments markets may monitor

• US policy detail: quarantine rules, enforcement posture, exemptions.
• UN and allies: statements that signal whether this becomes a long legitimacy fight.
• PDVSA operations: storage, shut-ins, diluent availability, floating storage signals.
• OPEC+ signalling: whether the group stays committed to stability if spreads blow out.

2025 年即将收官，全球金融市场经历了一段复杂且充满挑战的时期。从宏观经济到货币政策，从资本市场到地缘政治，多重因素交织影响着市场走向。进入 2026 年，市场关注点正从“方向判断”转向“节奏与兑现”。

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一、宏观经济：全球增长放缓但整体稳健

回顾 2025 年，全球经济的整体状态可以概括为 “低速增长伴随高不确定性”。

在经历了高通胀和高利率的双重挤压后，主要经济体的增长动能普遍减弱。美国经济表现相对突出，消费和服务业依然提供支撑，但制造业和企业投资明显放慢；欧洲经济受到高融资成本和财政空间受限影响，增长乏力；中国则在结构调整背景下，通过政策托底稳定预期，政策重心更多倾向于稳增长、防控风险以及提振市场信心。新兴市场在美元压力缓解后有所改善，但内部差异加大。

从全球层面看，2025 年并不是一个“强复苏”的年份，这种状态为金融市场提供了有限但尚可的基本面支撑。经济虽无大幅反弹，但也未出现系统性衰退，市场在这种不确定的环境中寻求平衡。

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二、通胀与利率：从核心主线转为背景变量

如果说 2022–2024 年金融市场的核心矛盾是“通胀”，那么到了 2025 年，这一问题的重要性明显下降。

从 2025 年下半年开始，通胀不再是市场唯一的关注焦点，但依然是政策制定和资产价格的重要 “底层约束”。商品价格的剧烈波动趋于平稳，但服务业通胀仍保持一定黏性，工资增长速度虽有所放缓，但并未出现明显下滑。

这一变化促使主要央行逐步从 “强力压制通胀” 转向在 “增长与通胀间寻找平衡”，为 2026 年货币政策转向降息周期奠定了基础。

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三、货币政策：降息周期开启，但并非一条直线

美联储在确认通胀趋势性回落后，逐步启动降息，但态度始终谨慎，反复强调政策将取决于经济和数据变化；欧洲央行因经济疲弱，更早释放宽松信号；澳洲、英国等央行则在通胀与增长之间保持平衡；日本央行继续推进政策正常化，但节奏缓慢，日元汇率成为市场关注重点。

整体而言，2025 年的货币政策环境呈现出 “方向一致、节奏分化” 的特点。这也意味着，市场不再是单边押注宽松，而是需要不断调整对利率路径的判断。

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四、资本市场：从情绪驱动回归基本面

2025 年资本市场的一个显著特征是 AI 及相关科技板块的估值经历了明显的重构。年初至年中，科技和人工智能相关概念股表现强劲，但下半年随着市场关注点转向盈利兑现，部分高估值资产出现调整。高资本开支和现金流压力成为估值波动的主要诱因。

与此同时，价值股、红利股以及现金流稳定的行业在年末重新受到投资者青睐，市场风格出现明显切换。这表明投资者从 “故事驱动” 转向 “盈利驱动”，更加注重基本面质量。

债券市场方面，降息预期推动收益率整体下行，但财政赤字和债务规模的扩大限制了长期收益率的下行空间。收益率曲线形态的变化成为宏观经济预期的重要信号。进入 2026 年初，债券市场仍将在政策宽松预期与财政可持续性之间寻求平衡。

外汇市场方面，美元在降息周期背景下整体偏弱，但其避险属性依然保持吸引力。日元和欧元等则受政策差异和经济基本面的显著影响，波动加剧。黄金价格则在降息预期、地缘政治紧张和资产配置多元化需求的共同推动下，维持较高关注度。

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五、地缘政治：长期风险并未退场

地缘政治虽并未成为持续性的市场主线，但始终以“潜在风险”的形式存在。

贸易摩擦、科技限制、区域冲突和能源安全问题，使市场对全球供应链和金融体系稳定性的担忧难以彻底消散。这些因素并未每天影响价格，却在关键时刻迅速放大市场波动，成为风险定价中不可忽视的一部分。

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六、展望 2026 年：开年首月的关键观察点

进入 2026 年，市场将从年末的流动性和仓位调整阶段，逐步回归对基本面的关注。开年首周，以下几个方面尤为重要：

宏观数据

• 1 月 5 日：美国 ISM 制造业 PMI（12 月数据） → 观察经济是否放缓
• 1月6日：日本央行账户数据（BOJ Accounts）
  → 反映日本央行的货币政策操作与流动性投放情况，市场将据此评估政策正常化节奏及其对日元、日债和全球资金流动的潜在影响
• 1 月 7 日：美国 JOLTS 职位空缺 → 劳动力市场状况
• 1 月 9 日：美国非农就业报告 → 就业、失业率、平均时薪，影响美联储降息预期
• 1月14日：美国 PPI（2025 年 11 月，含 10 月延迟数据）
  → 观察生产端通胀压力变化，为 CPI 与美联储政策预期提供前瞻信号
• 1 月初：中国官方制造业 PMI / 财新 PMI → 全球需求与风险偏好参考
• 1 月 15 日：美国 CPI 通胀数据（12 月）→ 判断通胀回落是否持续
• 1 月 30 日：美国 PPI（2025 年 12 月，常规发布）
  → 判断年末通胀走势及其对 2026 年货币政策路径的影响
• 1 月 31 日：CME 比特币期货合约到期→ 可能引发加密资产波动

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 央行动态

• 无利率决议，但美联储官员讲话 → 指导全年政策预期

风险偏好

• 资金在防御资产与风险资产间流动
• 美债收益率曲线与 VIX 波动率 → 观察市场风险偏好变化

 政策与地缘政治不确定性

• 财政、产业、贸易政策及地缘事件可能影响市场定价

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总结 

2025 年，全球金融市场完成了一次重要的过渡：从高通胀、高利率向降息周期初段的转变；从单一逻辑，走向多因素博弈。进入 2026 年，投资者面临的核心挑战不再仅仅是判断市场的大方向，而是如何在高不确定性环境中实现更精细、更动态的风险定价和资产配置。关注宏观经济数据、政策信号、资本市场结构变化及地缘政治风险，将是制定投资策略的关键。

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自上周以来白银价格已经飙升25%以上，在欧美国家欢庆佳节的时刻，一场以白银领导的全球贵金属市场的超大动荡以迅雷不及掩耳之势袭来。

2025年毋庸置疑可以被称作贵金属年，迄今为止距离年初黄金涨幅已经超过73%，白银涨幅超过190%，铂金涨幅超过180%。作为本轮的主角白银来说他从各方面性质又和黄金不完全相同，白银在工业属性上的强力需求是本轮能完成戴维斯双击共鸣的重要因素，如果想了解白银本次一飞冲天的本质因素，需要从两个宏观基本面和两个资金导向因素进行挖掘。

贵金属的宏观“避险”逻辑

我们总说大炮一响黄金万两，但是俄乌战争这个贵金属最初的催化剂已过去数年，中东地区的战争冲突也已阶段性进入平静，但是今年的黄金和一众贵金属小弟则是鸡犬升天，究其原因市场避险的并非是阶段性全球发生的冲突与炮火而是在避险被庞大债务阴影笼罩的美国经济。自上世纪70年代布雷顿森林体系崩盘以来黄金已经上涨超过了128倍，细数这中间每一轮的牛市其实都和美国的经济周期有莫大的关系。概括来说，这一轮美国国债体量达到38万亿之后，市场曾以为美联储依旧会根据其独立性去审慎定义货币体系和全球的金融规则，但是特朗普作为搅局者在上台后从大而美法案（提高债务上限），到疯狂叫嚣美联储降息（发推特），安插激进鸽派进入美联储（米兰上任），以及甄选比鲍威尔更听话的主席继任（鲍明年中退休，现预计候选人为激进鸽派）。一系列手段基本验证了一个全球市场都不想接受的事实就是美国发现在通胀不会严重失控的前提下将开启进一步的宽松通过稀释来减缓债务压力，现阶段美国的债务压力极强，万亿利息支出早已超越军费。全球各国在识穿了美国的阳谋之后能做的事情就是囤积黄金降低美债持有，今年的贵金属整体趋势是黄金作为头部对冲长期通胀资产所引领，而作为贵金属的二号头目白银自然不会脱离本轮主要牛市的趋向。

白银的工业需求和恐怖的供需失衡

虽然作为贵金属之一跟随牛市的Alpha只是上涨的因素之一，白银本轮的上涨Beta则深深的藏在其较为可怕的供需失衡当中，在过去五年中白银全球市场已经连续五年处于供应短缺状态，最新数据显示2024年到2025年之间白银的年度供给缺口为1.5到2亿盎司，而其中伦敦金银市场协会LBMA和纽约COMEX的白银显性库存距离2021年的峰值已经下降了40%，上交所的库存也跌至近十年低位。与之对应的是白银可怕的工业需求，作为全球光伏巨头在新光伏技术方向上对白银的消耗较此前PERC技术的消耗量高出30%-50%，异质结的银耗量则接近翻倍，这种可怕的工业需求是其他贵金属所不具备的。尤其是在人工智能高速发展对电网和电能需求进一步攀升的今天。

供给侧嗷嗷待哺，供应侧却面临无米之炊的难产，不同于金价对金矿的扩产催动，白银是一个高度伴生的矿产，全球28%的白银来自原生家庭，而剩下的72%则全部来自于铜铅锌的副产品，所以白银价格对供应影响是极其不敏感的，哪怕白银价格翻倍暴涨，供应端的涨幅仍旧不紧不慢，这种供需之间可怕的失衡是促成此次戴维斯双击的重要共振因素。

圣诞劫亚洲盘面的猎杀时刻：

本轮欧美节假日是一年交投理论上最清淡的时刻，欧盘美盘的做市商交易员忙着欢庆节假日，亚洲主力利用这一流动性真空时期发动了多头的强力逼空，这轮行情中COMEX的挂单簿极其稀薄，推动价格上涨的资金需求远非正常时段，上交所直接主导了本轮白银价格的龙头趋势，导致欧美交割库进一步紧张，同时多个欧美空头关键技术点位触及止损带来市场进一步的资金倾轧，而本轮节假日结束白银先是向上跳张就完美的印证了这点，而这从长期看也是国家战略布局的阳谋之一，毕竟光伏大国在东方，白银的定价需求对未来的能源战略地位是有举足轻重的影响。

板块轮动带来的强势补涨

这轮白银上涨不是单纯自己上涨，铂金等年内没有跟着黄金大幅走强的贵金属也有提振，而白银历史上和黄金的比例（俗称金银比）约为50-60之间，今年因为黄金快速起飞这个数据之前被拉升到了80以上，而历史上每一轮出现这种情况，金银比都会因为板块资金轮动快速修正到40-50左右，所以这轮上涨板块轮动也是因素之一，ETF的资金回流进一步促成了这一趋势。

总结：历史上白银的牛市都很短促会在短期内高涨后下跌，但是现阶段几个因素来看这轮涨势的因素仍旧存在，在重要因素没有转向之前，趋势或难以断定是否逆转，市场有风险，交易需谨慎。

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