Three data levers dominate the US markets in February: growth, labour and inflation. Beyond those, policy communication, trade headlines and geopolitics can still matter, even when they are not tied to a scheduled release date.

Growth: business activity and trade

Early to mid-month indicators provide a read on whether US momentum is stabilising or softening into Q1.

Key dates

• Advance monthly retail sales: 10 Feb, 8:30 am (ET) / 11 Feb, 12:30 am (AEDT) 
• Industrial Production and Capacity Utilisation: 18 Feb, 9:15 am (ET) / 19 Feb, 1:15 am (AEDT) 
• International Trade in Goods and Services: 19 Feb, 8:30 am (ET) / 20 Feb, 12:30 am (AEDT) 

What markets look for

Markets will be watching new orders and output trends in PMIs to gauge underlying demand momentum. Export and import data will offer insights into global trade flows and domestic consumption patterns. Traders will also assess whether manufacturing and services sectors remain in expansionary territory or show signs of contraction.

Market sensitivities

• Stronger growth can be associated with higher yields and a firmer USD, though inflation and policy expectations often dominate the rate response.
• Softer activity can be associated with lower yields and improved risk appetite, depending on inflation, positioning, and broader risk conditions.

‍

Payrolls data

Labour conditions remain a direct input into rate expectations. The monthly NFP report, alongside the weekly jobless claims released every Thursday, is typically watched for signs of cooling or renewed tightness.

Key dates

• Employment Situation (nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, wages): 6 Feb, 8:30 am (ET) / 7 Feb, 12:30 am (AEDT) 

What markets look for

Markets will focus on headline payrolls to assess the pace of job creation, the unemployment rate for signals of labour market slack, and average hourly earnings as a gauge of wage pressures. A gradual cooling can support the idea that wage pressures are easing. Persistent tightness may push out expectations for policy easing.

Market sensitivities

Payroll surprises frequently move Treasury yields and the USD quickly, with knock-on effects for equities and commodities.

‍

Inflation: CPI, PPI and PCE

Inflation releases remain a key input into expectations for the Fed’s policy path.

Key dates

• Consumer Price Index (CPI): 11 Feb, 8:30 am (ET) / 12 Feb, 12:30 am (AEDT) 
• Personal Income and Outlays, including the PCE price index): 20 Feb, 8:30 am (ET) / 21 Feb, 12:30 am (AEDT) 
• Producer Price Index (PPI): 27 Feb, 8:30 am (ET) / 28 Feb, 12:30 am (AEDT) 

What markets look for

Producer prices can act as a pipeline signal. CPI and the PCE price index can help confirm whether inflation pressures are broadening or fading at the consumer level.

How rates and the USD can react

• Cooling inflation can support lower yields and a softer USD, though market reactions can vary.
• Sticky inflation can keep upward pressure on yields and financial conditions, especially if it shifts policy expectations.

‍

Other influencing factors

Policy and communication

There is no scheduled February FOMC meeting, but speeches and other Fed communication, as well as the minutes cycle from prior meetings, can still influence expectations around the policy path.  Without a decision event, markets often react to shifts in tone, or renewed emphasis on inflation persistence and labour conditions.

Trade and geopolitics

Trade flows and energy markets can remain secondary, and the risk profile is typically headline-driven rather than linked to scheduled releases.

The Office of the United States Trade Representative has published fact sheets and policy updates (including on US-India trade engagement) that may occasionally influence sector and supply-chain sentiment at the margin, depending on the substance and market focus at the time. 

Separately, volatility tied to Middle East developments and any impact on energy pricing can filter into inflation expectations and bond yields. Weekly petroleum market data from the US Energy Information Administration is one input that markets often monitor for near-term signals.

Every four years, the Olympics does something markets understand very well: it concentrates attention. And when attention concentrates, so do headlines, narratives, positioning… and sometimes, price.

The Olympics isn’t just “two weeks of sport.” For traders, it’s a two-week global marketing and tourism event, delivered in real time, often while Australia is asleep.

So, let’s make this useful.

Scheduled dates: Friday 6 February to Sunday 22 February 2026
Where: Milan, Cortina d’Ampezzo, and alpine venues across northern Italy

What matters (and what doesn’t)

Matters

• Money moving early: Infrastructure, transport upgrades, sponsorship, media rights and tourism booking trends.
• Narrative amid liquidity: Themed trades can run harder than fundamentals, especially when volume shows up but can also reverse quickly.
• Earnings language: Traders often watch whether companies start referencing demand, bookings, ad spend, or guidance tailwinds.

Doesn’t

• Medal counts (controversial statement, I know).

Why the Olympics matter to markets

The Olympics are not just two weeks of sport. For host regions, they often reflect years of planning, investment and marketing and then all of that gets shoved into one concentrated global media moment. That’s why markets pay attention, even when the fundamentals haven’t suddenly reinvented themselves.

Here are a few themes host regions may see. Outcomes vary by host, timing, and the macro backdrop.

Theme map: where headlines usually cluster

Construction and materials
Logistics upgrades, transport links, and “sustainable” builds.

Luxury and tourism
Milan’s fashion-capital status starts turning into demand well before opening night.

Media and streaming
Advertising increases as audiences surge and platforms cash in.

Transport and travel
Airlines, hotels and travel tech riding the volume, and the expectations.

For Australian-based traders, the key idea is exposure, not geography. Italian listings aren’t required to see the theme while simultaneously, some people look for ASX-listed companies whose earnings may be linked to similar forces (travel demand, discretionary spend). The connection is not guaranteed. It depends on the business, the numbers and the valuation.

The ASX shortlist

The ASX shortlist is simply a way to organise the local market by exposure, so you can see which parts of the index are most likely to pick up the spillover. It is not a forecast and it is not a recommendation, it is a framework for tracking how a narrative moves from headlines into sector pricing, and for separating genuine theme exposure from names that are only catching the noise.

Wesfarmers (WES): broad retail exposure that gives a read on the local consumer.

Flight Centre (FLT): may offer higher exposure to travel cycles across retail and corporate.

Corporate Travel Management (CTD): business travel sensitivity, and it often reacts to conference and event demands.

The Aussie toolkit

The Olympics compresses attention, and when attention compresses, a handful of instruments tend to register it first while everything else just picks up noise. The whole point here is monitoring and discipline, not variety. 

FX: the fastest headline absorber

Examples: EUR/USD, EUR/AUD, with AUD/JPY often watched as broader risk-sentiment signals.
What it captures: how markets are pricing European optimism, global risk appetite, and where capital is leaning in real time

Index benchmarks: the sentiment dashboard

Examples (index level): Euro Stoxx 50, DAX, FTSE, S&P 500.
What it can capture: whether a headline is broad enough to influence wider positioning, or whether it stays contained to a narrow theme.

Commodities: second order, often the amplifier

Examples: copper (industrial sensitivity), Brent/WTI (energy and geopolitics), gold (risk/uncertainty).
What it can capture: the bigger drivers (USD, rates, growth expectations, weather and geopolitics) with the Olympics usually acting as the wrapper rather than the engine.

Put together, this is not a prediction, and it is not a shopping list. It is a compact map of where the Olympics story is most likely to show itself first, where it might spread next, and where it sometimes shows up late, after everyone has already decided how they feel about it.

Your calendar is not Europe’s calendar

For Aussie traders, the Olympics is a two-week, overnight headline cycle. Much of the “live” information flow is likely to land during the European and US sessions. However, there are three windows to keep in mind.

‍

‍
Watch this space.

In the next piece, we’ll build the Euro checklist and map the volatility windows around Milano–Cortina so you can see when the market is actually pricing the story, and when it is just reacting to noise.

今年初澳元作为商品货币受大宗商品价格上涨和通胀持续反弹造成了澳元大幅持续反弹。 通过昨日澳洲联储在货币政策新闻发布会的信息会对澳元的走势会造成什么影响？

1. 通胀判断：通胀明显回潮，风险在“根深蒂固”

澳洲联储认为，尽管通胀已较2022 年高点明显回落，但2025 年下半年通胀再度走强、动能过于强劲，仍将长期高于2–3% 目标区间中值，因此必须防止通胀失控并固化。

‍

2. 加息立场：这不是一次性动作，但会保持谨慎

澳洲联储此次一致通过加息25bp 至 3.85%，明确释放“加息未必止步于此”的信号，但同时强调将保持高度谨慎，不预设利率路径、不提供前瞻指引，且未考虑50bp 的激进加息。

‍

3. 经济背景：需求强、供给受限，是通胀再起的根源

澳洲联储指出，私人需求增长显著超预期，而产能受限与生产力疲软等结构性问题叠加政府支出强劲，导致在经济整体表现尚可的情况下，供给难以匹配需求并持续推高通胀压力。

‍

4. 劳动力与金融条件：仍偏紧，政策可能还不够“紧”

澳洲联储认为，在劳动力市场依然紧俏、工资和信贷增长走强的背景下，当前金融状况可能仍偏宽松，现金利率水平亦低于部分中性利率估计。

‍

5. 澳元角色：欢迎升值，视为政策传导工具

行长布洛克表示，澳元升值不仅是政策传导机制的一部分，还可在边际上收紧金融条件、降低进口通胀，助力联储控制通胀。

‍

6. 前景与市场含义：年内再加息概率显著上升

官方预测显示，假设利率按当前路径发展，年中将接近3.9%，年底可能升至4.10%–4.20%。

‍

7. 结论：

澳洲联储因通胀回升、私人需求强劲及产能受限而鹰派加息25bp至3.85%，暗示年内可能继续加息，澳元短线走强，市场对加息周期预期明显升温。

‍