在过去两周里，白银市场经历了极端剧烈的震荡与高位博弈：价格一度快速攀升至历史极高水平，随后出现剧烈回落，反映出市场在避险情绪、基本面需求与投机力量之间的动态平衡。这一阶段白银的表现不仅成为贵金属市场的焦点，也凸显出当前全球经济风险偏好和宏观预期的复杂变化。

一、价格表现：高峰与震荡并存

自年初以来，白银价格持续上涨，并在近期迎来非常显著的高点突破。本周一，白银价格在近段时间内冲高至历史高位——一度触及每盎司约 117.75 美元 的峰值水平，盘中涨幅一度接近 14%,创下自2008年以来的最大单日涨幅。上涨之后的价格快速回落，最终在震荡中收复1%涨幅收盘。反映出，在连续多日由动量推动、追涨情绪主导的行情之后，这轮上涨已经变得相对脆弱。

同一时间段内，黄金虽也创新高，但白银的价格波动要更加剧烈，表现出更高的弹性和交易热度。国内市场对应的沪银主连合约也在本轮行情中刷新了历史高点，盘中涨幅显著。

二、推动白银上涨的核心因素

白银价格在这两周内的大幅波动并非偶然，它是多重基本面与市场情绪因素共同作用的结果：

1. 全球供需高度紧张

从供给端看，全球白银市场已连续多年处于供给短缺状态。截至最近数据（约 2025 年末），白银产量约 3.18 万吨，而实际需求达到了约 3.55 万吨，现实中每年存在接近 8 亿盎司的累计缺口。供应端无法快速响应需求增长，因为全球大部分白银是伴生矿产品，其生产扩张依赖于铜、铅锌矿的开发节奏，且新矿开发周期长达 5–10 年。供给结构的僵化，成为白银价格持续上行的重要基本面支撑。

此外，即使在高价区间，工业消费仍保持强劲，特别是在新能源、光伏、电子设备等领域对白银的需求持续增长，这进一步加剧了供应紧张的局面。

2. 避险需求与宏观不确定性

宏观经济的多重不确定性是近期贵金属走强的重要逻辑背景之一。通胀预期、货币政策路径的不确定性、全球地缘风险等因素，使白银不仅具备避险功能，还因其对市场情绪敏感而呈现高波动性。今日，美国对韩国商品提高关税至25%，以及市场对美联储政策和主席人选的猜测，加剧了投资者的不确定性。此外，财政支出和货币政策压力也促使部分资金从债券和货币资产转向贵金属，形成所谓的贬值交易。

3. 美元与利率预期影响

美元走势与美国货币政策预期对贵金属价格影响显著。随着市场对美联储未来可能降息的预期升温，以及美元在多重政策不确定性下有所承压，白银作为非收益资产吸引了更多资产配置需求。这种“美元弱、避险升”组合在贵金属市场整体放大了资金对价格上行的共振。

三、短期震荡与风险提示

此次白银行情的一个明显特征是急涨之后伴随急跌与回撤，反映出市场对“过热状态”的风险意识正在增强。

分析人士认为，这种极端振幅表明白银部分上涨动力已接近短期极限，且高企价格开始对工业使用产生“挤压”效应，迫使光伏等行业加速寻求替代材料，从而削弱部分实需支撑。这种供需博弈下的潜在阻力，是当前白银短期回落不可忽视的风险因素。

虽然工业需求是白银的基本面支撑之一，但高价会对需求端形成反压。例如光伏等行业可能加快替代材料布局，减少对白银的边际需求，这在极端高价位很可能削弱部分基本面支撑，从而影响中长期供需平衡。

四、未来走势展望

从长期供需基本面来看，白银的结构性紧张、工业需求增长与避险功能并存，为其价格中枢提供了较强支撑。只要这些基本因素未发生根本性逆转，白银在未来阶段仍有潜力维持高位波动。

不过，从技术面和市场情绪出发，高位的急速上涨属于典型的“爆发型行情”，短线极易出现回调或震荡加剧，特别是在遇到宏观数据或全球金融风险事件时，价格波动可能进一步放大。

因此，在关注白银中长期上涨逻辑的同时，需要警惕短期波动风险，避免在高位盲目追涨，并重点关注供需基本面数据、美元走势和全球避险情绪的变化。

总结

基本面供需紧张、工业需求增长和宏观不确定性构成了白银中长期支撑，价格快速透支上涨动能，叠加高位获利了结与需求端压力，短期波动风险显著，需要投资者保持谨慎。

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FX markets enter an important window with a Federal Reserve policy decision and press conference, US ISM activity data, German inflation releases, China PMIs, and Australian labour figures all due.

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Quick facts

• The upcoming Fed policy decision and press conference are closely watched for guidance on the potential timing of rate cuts, with implications for US Treasury yields and USD direction. 
• Broad USD selling has intensified over the last 48 hours. The move has coincided with renewed tariff rhetoric and heightened sensitivity to FX intervention narratives. 
• ISM Manufacturing PMI is scheduled for Monday, 2 February, with ISM Services PMI on Wednesday, 4 February, providing timely insight into US growth momentum. 
• German CPI, euro area GDP and unemployment, China PMIs, and Australian labour data provide regional context, particularly for EUR and AUD crosses.

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USD/JPY

What to watch

The Federal Reserve decision and subsequent press conference are key events influencing US Treasury yields. 

Any shift in tone around inflation progress, economic risks, or rate cut timing expectations may affect yield differentials and near-term USD sensitivity. 

Recent broad USD weakness, reinforced by tariff-related headlines and intervention sensitivity, has added downside pressure to the USD. 

On the JPY side, Japan inflation signals, including Tokyo CPI, are relevant as indicators of domestic price trends and potential policy direction. 

Key releases and events

• Thu 30 Jan: Japan Tokyo CPI (January) 
• Thu 30 Jan: Federal Reserve policy decision and press conference 
• Mon 2 Feb: US ISM Manufacturing PMI 
• Wed 4 Feb: US ISM Services PMI 

Technical snapshot

USDJPY has broken lower from its recent consolidation zone, with downside range evident over the last 48 hours. Price has moved down to the 200-exponential moving average (EMA) and is testing a level not seen since October 2025.

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EUR/USD

What to watch

The Fed decision and press conference may influence EUR/USD primarily through USD moves linked to Treasury yield reactions. 

On the EUR side, German CPI will show inflation trends, while euro area flash GDP and unemployment data inform the regional growth outlook. 

Key releases and events

• Thu 29 Jan: Germany CPI (preliminary) 
• Thu 29 Jan: Eurozone flash GDP, Q4 2025 
• Thu 30 Jan: Federal Reserve decision and press conference 
• Fri 30 Jan: Eurozone unemployment rate

Technical snapshot

EURUSD has extended above a prior resistance level, with expanded daily ranges and strong momentum. Price action in other USD crosses suggests the move may be reflecting USD weakness, rather than a material shift in euro area fundamentals.

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EUR/AUD

What to watch

Alongside euro area growth numbers, Australian employment data may influence near-term EUR/AUD sensitivity ahead of the RBA policy decision next week. 

China's official PMIs remain relevant, as shifts in Chinese activity expectations can influence AUD via commodity demand and regional risk sentiment. 

Key releases and events

• Thu 29 Jan: Australia Labour Force, Detailed (Dec 2025), 11:30am AEDT 
• Fri 31 Jan: China official Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs 
• Tue 4 Feb: RBA policy decision 

Technical snapshot

EUR/AUD has decisively broken below its prior support zone, with price now testing levels not seen since April 2025. Momentum remains negative, consistent with a renewed downside phase rather than consolidation.

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Bottom line

The Fed decision and press conference, US PMI data, German inflation releases, China PMIs, and Australian labour figures are clustered in a short window. 

Markets will be watching whether the USD weakness evident over the last 48 hours extends further.

Expected earnings date: Thursday, 29 January 2026 (US, after market close) / early Friday, 30 January 2026 (AEDT)

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Key areas in focus

iPhone

The iPhone remains Apple’s largest revenue driver. Markets are likely to focus on unit demand, product mix (including higher-end models), and any signals on upgrade momentum and regional trends.

Services

Investors are likely to focus on growth across areas such as the App Store, iCloud, Apple Music and other subscriptions, alongside any commentary on average revenue per user (ARPU). The size and engagement of Apple’s installed base remain central to overall performance.

Wearables, home and accessories

This segment includes products such as Apple Watch, AirPods, Beats headphones, home-related devices, and accessories. Investors are likely to watch revenue trends in this segment as an indicator of discretionary consumer demand. 

Cost and margin framework

Management has flagged tariff and component cost pressures in prior commentary. Markets may remain sensitive to gross margin commentary and any signals of incremental cost pressure or mitigation strategies. 

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What happened last quarter

Apple’s most recent quarterly update (fiscal Q4 2025) highlighted record September-quarter revenue and EPS, alongside record Services revenue and continued emphasis on installed-base strength.  

The prior update also included discussion of holiday-quarter expectations and cost headwinds (including tariffs), which have influenced expected margins and management guidance.

Last earnings key highlights

• Revenue: US$102.5 billion 
• Earnings per share (EPS): US$1.85 (diluted) 
• iPhone revenue: US$49.03 billion 
• Services revenue: US$28.75 billion 
• Net income: US$27.5 billion 

How the market reacted last time

Apple shares rose in after-hours trading following the release, as investors assessed the results against analyst expectations and management’s holiday-quarter commentary, including tariff-related cost pressures and regional demand considerations. 

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What’s expected this quarter

Bloomberg consensus points to year-on-year EPS growth, with markets also focused on the revenue outcome and gross margins, given the scale and importance of the holiday quarter for Apple’s earnings profile. 

Bloomberg consensus reference points (January 2026):

• EPS: about US$2.65 
• Revenue: about US$138 billion 
• Full-year FY2026 EPS: about US$8.1 

*All above points observed as of 26 January 2026.

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Expectations

Sentiment around Apple may be sensitive to any disappointment on holiday-quarter revenue, Services momentum, or margin commentary, given the stock’s large index weight and the importance of this reporting period. 

Listed options were implying an indicative move of around ±3% to ±4% based on near-dated, at-the-money options-implied expected move estimates observed on Barchart at 11:00 am AEDT on 25 January 2026.  Implied volatility was approximately 29% annualised at that time. 

These are market-implied estimates (not a forecast) and may change. Actual post-earnings price moves can be larger or smaller.

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What this means for Australian traders

Apple’s earnings can influence near-term sentiment across major US equity indices, particularly Nasdaq-linked products, with potential spillover into the Asia session following the release.

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Important risk note 

Immediately after the US close and into the early Asia session, Nasdaq 100 (NDX) futures and related CFD pricing can reflect thinner liquidity, wider spreads, and sharper repricing around new information. 

Such an environment can increase gap risk and execution uncertainty relative to regular-hours conditions.