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Expected earnings date: Wednesday, 28 January 2026 (US, after market close) / early Thursday, 29 January 2026 (AEDT)

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Key areas in focus

Advertising (Family of Apps)

Advertising remains Meta’s dominant revenue driver. AI-driven ad targeting, Reels monetisation, and engagement efficiency can be important contributors to revenue growth and may support advertiser outcomes, noting results can vary by advertiser, format, and market conditions.

User engagement and monetisation

Engagement trends across Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Threads remain closely watched as indicators that can influence monetisation assumptions and medium-term expectations.

Artificial intelligence

Meta views AI as a foundation for content discovery, advertising performance, and the development of generative tools. Markets may continue to evaluate whether AI-driven gains offset the level of infrastructure and data centre investment required to support these projects.

Reality Labs

Reality Labs remains loss-making. Management continues to frame AR/VR and metaverse-related platforms as long-term strategic investments, while acknowledging continued operating losses and a drag on earnings performance.

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What happened last quarter

Meta’s most recent quarterly update highlighted strong revenue growth alongside ongoing investment themes. 

The company’s reported (GAAP) net income and EPS reflected a one-time, non-cash income tax charge disclosed in the earnings materials, while management commentary also emphasised cost discipline and investment priorities.

Operating margins expanded year-on-year, despite elevated AI-related investment.

Last earnings key highlights

• Revenue: US$51.24 billion 
• Earnings per share (EPS): US$1.05 (GAAP) 
• Advertising revenue: US$50.08 billion 
• Operating margin: 40% 
• Reality Labs operating loss: about US$4.43 billion 

How the market reacted last time

Meta shares fell in after-hours trading after the release. Commentary at the time highlighted strong top-line outcomes, alongside investor focus on the outlook for spending and the pace of AI and infrastructure investment.

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What’s expected this quarter

Bloomberg consensus points to continued year-on-year revenue growth, led by advertising, with operating margins expected to remain elevated despite ongoing AI and infrastructure expenditure.

Bloomberg consensus reference points (January 2026)

• Revenue: about US$41 to US$43 billion 
• EPS: about US$4.80 to US$5.10 (adjusted) 
• Advertising growth: high-teens year on year (YoY) 
• Operating margin: expected to remain above 40% 
• Capital expenditure (capex): elevated, reflecting AI and data centre investment 

*All above points observed as of 23 January 2026.

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Expectations

Sentiment around Meta Platforms may be sensitive to any disappointment around advertising demand, margin sustainability, or the scale of ongoing investment in AI and Reality Labs.

Recent price action suggests that some market participants appear to be pricing in a relatively constructive earnings outcome, which can increase sensitivity to negative surprises.

Listed options were pricing an indicative move of around ±3% based on near-dated options expiring after 28 January and an at-the-money options-implied ‘expected move’ estimate.

Implied volatility was about 31% annualised into the event, as observed on Barchart at 11:00 am AEDT on 23 January 2026.

These are market-implied estimates and may change. Actual post-earnings moves can be larger or smaller.

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What this means for Australian traders

Meta’s earnings may influence near-term sentiment across US technology indices, particularly the Nasdaq, with potential spillover into broader global equity risk appetite and index-linked products traded during the Asia session after the release, which can be volatile and unpredictable following earnings events.

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Important risk note

Immediately after the US close and into the early Asia session, Nasdaq 100 (NDX) futures and related CFD pricing can reflect thinner liquidity, wider spreads, and sharper repricing around new information. 

Such an environment can increase gap risk and execution uncertainty relative to regular-hours conditions.

Australian CPI may test market pricing for a February RBA move, while the Federal Reserve narrative will be followed closely, even though a pause is widely expected. It is also a busy US earnings week, with mega-cap names headlining, and Gold remains a key market focus.

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• Australia CPI: Australian CPI is the key domestic release, with markets pricing the risk of a February RBA rate increase.
• US Federal Reserve: The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady, with attention on whether a potential June rate cut remains intact.
• US mega-cap tech earnings: Earnings from large-cap technology names may test whether current equity valuations remain supported.
• Gold: Gold continues to trade near record highs.

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Australia

• Australia CPI (Q4): Wednesday, 28 January

Stronger-than-expected jobs report this week lifted market expectations for further policy tightening. 

According to the ASX RBA Rate Tracker, market-implied pricing for a February rate increase has risen to above 60%.

Market impact

• AUD crosses may respond to any shift in rate expectations
• Rate-sensitive equity sectors could see follow-through moves

Federal Reserve

• FOMC rate decision: Wednesday, 28 January (US) | 29 January (AEDT)

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to announce no change in rates after its two-day meeting. 

Market focus will centre on communication around inflation progress, and whether market-implied pricing for a potential June rate cut is reinforced or challenged.

Market impact

• USD direction may respond to any shift in policy tone across multiple asset classes
• US Treasury yields, especially at the front end, may react to changes in rate expectations

US mega-cap earnings

• Boeing: 27 January (US time) | 28 January AEDT
• Microsoft: 28 January (US time, after market close) | 29 January AEDT
• Meta Platforms: 28 January (US time, after market close) | 29 January AEDT
• Tesla: 28 January (US time, after market close) | 29 January AEDT
• Caterpillar: 29 January (US time, before market open)/30 January AEDT
• Apple: 29 January (US time, after market close) | 30 January AEDT

Earnings from US mega-cap technology companies are likely to dominate headlines, but next week is also one of the busiest periods so far this earnings season across multiple sectors. 

Markets are likely to focus on guidance, margins and capital expenditure as much as the headline results.

Market impact

• Nasdaq leadership breadth may respond to guidance consistency
• With equity markets remaining generally strong, current valuations will again be tested
• Overall performance across sectors will be viewed as a lens into the state of the econ

(Note: Dates may be subject to change)

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Gold

At the US close on 22 January 2026, COMEX gold futures traded around US$4,920/oz, with the psychologically important 5,000 level in view. 

Sensitivity to Treasury yields and the USD, policy uncertainty, and geopolitical developments may influence price action either way.

Market impact

• Gold prices can remain sensitive to changes in Treasury yields, USD movements and geopolitical developments.
• Movements around record levels can be volatile and unpredictable, and may reverse quickly.

Final takeaways

• If Australian CPI suggests inflation persistence, market pricing may continue to lean toward a February RBA move
• If the Fed narrative is less dovish than expected, current assumptions may be challenged
• If mega-cap earnings reinforce valuation confidence, leadership from these stocks may help support broader equity levels
• If gold holds near record highs, USD weakness and hedging demand may remain key drivers

韩国银行（Bank of Korea, BOK）货币政策委员会于2026年1月15日决定：将韩国银行基准利率维持在2.50%，并在同一公开材料中载明该决定获得一致通过。韩国银行在决议公告中同时表示：鉴于通胀预计将逐步稳定、经济增长持续改善、且金融稳定风险仍然存在，委员会判断在评估国内外政策环境变化的同时，维持当前利率水平是适当的。

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BOK对主要经济体的外部环境进一步给出方向性描述：BOK认为美国经济预计将维持稳健增长，并将支撑因素描述为人工智能领域投资增加以及减税政策；同时提到关税影响较最初预期更不显著。BOK还表示欧元区预计将呈现较为有利的增长趋势，影响因素包括财政支出扩张与相对宽松的金融条件。对中国，BOK表示由于出口转弱，中国经济预计将较上年放缓，但在提振内需措施支撑下，放缓速度可能相对温和。

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在全球金融市场方面，BOK提到，主要经济体对进一步降息的预期走弱叠加对财政稳健性的担忧，推动长期政府债券收益率上升。BOK同时描述美元汇率阶段性走弱后又转强，影响因素包括好于预期的美国经济指标以及股市风险偏好变化；股票价格则在对企业盈利改善预期的带动下继续上行。BOK指出，尽管美国关税政策对全球经济造成影响，全球经济仍预计将维持温和增长。BOK同时将支撑因素表述为主要经济体的扩张性财政政策以及持续的人工智能相关投资。

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在国内经济部分，BOK指出，尽管建筑投资仍显疲弱，韩国经济增长仍延续改善趋势，支撑因素包括消费持续恢复以及出口持续增长。BOK提到就业人数总体增加持续，且服务业是重要带动来源。对于前景，BOK表示在半导体行业强劲表现支撑下，出口预计仍将保持有利；国内需求也预计将延续改善趋势，其支撑因素包括消费持续恢复以及建筑投资疲弱程度缓解。BOK并写明当年增长率预计与11月预测的1.8%大体一致，同时指出与半导体行业上行趋势加速、主要经济体增长好于预期相关的上行风险有所增加。BOK认为第四季度增长较上年第三季度强劲增长所带来的基数效应影响而有所走弱，但总体仍维持“潜在改善趋势”的判断。BOK同时指出复苏呈“K形”特征，即信息技术（IT）部门表现强劲与非IT部门持续疲弱并存，从而在行业之间形成较大差异。

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在通胀方面，BOK披露2025年12月消费者价格通胀小幅回落至2.3%，并将其原因描述为农畜水产品价格涨幅放缓，尽管石油产品价格涨幅加快。剔除食品与能源后的核心通胀为2.0%，与前月持平，并指出公众短期通胀预期为2.6%，同样与前月持平。对未来通胀路径，BOK表示在全球油价相对稳定的支撑下，通胀预计将逐步下降至2%水平，但较高的汇率水平可能对通胀形成上行压力。BOK还写明当年总体通胀与核心通胀预计与11月预测大体一致，分别为2.1%与2.0%。

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在金融与外汇市场方面，BOK描述韩元兑美元汇率在外汇市场稳定化措施后出现明显下行，但随后又回升至1400韩元中后段区间，并将驱动因素列为美元走强、日元走弱、地缘政治风险上升以及居民持续海外投资等。BOK同时提到，由于市场对降息预期走弱，韩国国债收益率显著上升，但之后有所回落；股市则在对半导体等主要行业盈利改善预期的带动下大幅上涨。BOK在同一段落中提到家庭贷款增速放缓趋势延续，主要与住房相关贷款增幅放缓及其他贷款净偿还有关；同时指出首尔及周边地区房价仍以较快速度上涨。BOK强调需要持续关注外汇与住房市场变化。BOK提到汇率在年末稳定化措施后曾对美元下跌超过40韩元，但本年度又回到1400韩元中后段区间，因此需要高度警惕。BOK将相关背景归因于美元走强、日元走弱以及伊朗与委内瑞拉相关事件引发的地缘政治风险上升等多因素组合，并提到海外投资与外汇供需失衡因素仍在。BOK同时提示需要警惕家庭债务相关风险，并提到首尔房价上涨仍处于高位，且价格外溢效应在部分非监管地区显现。

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在政策框架表述方面，BOK表示其将以中期稳定通胀于目标水平为目标开展货币政策，在监测经济增长的同时关注金融稳定。BOK在政策决定中指出，国内经济继续处于改善增长趋势，上行风险有所增加；通胀预计逐步下降，但较高汇率仍是通胀上行风险来源之一；金融稳定风险仍与首尔及周边房价、家庭债务以及汇率波动加剧相关。基于这些因素，BOK表示将一边支持经济增长恢复，一边密切监测国内外政策条件变化及其对通胀与金融稳定的影响，并据此作出政策决定。

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此外，BOK在开场陈述中还披露了与货币政策决定同日的另一项决定：BOK决定将针对低信用个体工商户与中小企业的临时特别支持项目延长六个月，并说明该决定考虑了尽管经济增长持续改善，但中小企业与地区经济复苏仍相对滞后的情况。

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相关官方文件和详细数据请参考：

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韩国银行官方网站：https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/main/main.do

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BOK 2026年1月15日《货币政策决定 + 行长开场陈述》：

https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000634/view.do?nttId=10095713&menuNo=400423&relate=Y&depth=400423&programType=newsDataEng

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BOK 2026年1月15日《通货政策方向/决议文》：

https://www.bok.or.kr/portal/bbs/P0000559/view.do?nttId=10095711&menuNo=200690

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BOK 2025年11月《经济展望（Economic Outlook）》：

https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000634/view.do?nttId=10094798&menuNo=400069

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韩国统计局（Statistics Korea, KOSIS）：https://kostat.go.kr/anse/

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免责声明：本文内容仅为一般性建议，未考虑任何个人的具体投资目标、财务状况或特定需求，不构成任何形式的个人财务建议、投资建议、税务建议、法律建议或任何金融产品推荐等。本文陈述的信息基于韩国银行（BOK）等公开渠道资料。本文可能包含对市场机制与潜在情景的讨论，但不构成对未来市场走向、经济表现、投资回报或政策变化的承诺或保证。过往表现和历史数据不代表未来结果。所有投资均涉及风险，包括可能损失全部本金，外汇、差价合约（CFD）、衍生品等杠杆类产品具有高风险特性，可能导致快速且重大的损失，市场价格可能因各种因素剧烈波动。本文引用的信息来源于公开渠道，虽已尽力确保准确性，但不对信息的完全准确性、完整性、及时性或适用性作出任何明示或暗示的保证，信息可能存在延迟、需要更正，或因市场和政策环境快速变化而不再适用于当前情况。在做出任何投资或财务决策前，您应当仔细考虑自身的财务状况、投资目标和风险承受能力，进行适当性评估以确保相关产品或策略符合您的需求，并咨询持有澳大利亚金融服务牌照（AFSL）的财务顾问、税务专业人士或法律顾问，同时了解并遵守您所在司法管辖区的相关法律法规。本文提及的任何第三方机构、产品或服务不构成推荐或认可，相关商标、名称归其合法所有者。在法律允许的最大范围内，作者及相关方对因使用、依赖或无法使用本文信息而导致的任何直接、间接、附带、特殊或后果性损失不承担任何责任。投资有风险，决策需谨慎。

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