Your complete day-by-day guide to Australian medal chances and market-moving moments during the Milano Cortina Winter Olympics.

Quick Facts

• Opening Ceremony: 6:00 am, 7 February AEDT (8:00 pm, 6 February Milan).
• Prime viewing window: 4:00 am to 2:00 pm AEDT daily coincides with pre-market and ASX trading hours.
• Medal ceremonies: Typically run from 6:00 am to 7:00 am AEDT. Perfect for pre-market position adjustments.
• 53 Australian athletes competing: The second-largest Australian Winter Olympic team ever, with 10 genuine medal contenders.

Olympic Schedule

All times shown in AEDT

= Australian competing

🏅 = AUS medal chance

🔥 = Potential volatility

Feb 7

06:00

Opening Ceremony

Live from Milano

🔥

21:30

Men's Downhill Final

Harry Laidlaw

🔥

23:00

Women's 10km+10km Skiathlon

Rosie Fordham, Phoebe Cridland

🔥

Feb 8

05:30

Men's Snowboard Big Air Final

Valentino Guseli

🏅🔥

05:57

Women's NH Individual Final

Global Superstars (Ski Jumping)

🔥

Feb 10

05:30

Women's Snowboard Big Air Final

Tess Coady, Ally Hickman

🏅

Feb 12

00:15

Women’s Moguls Final

Jakara Anthony, Emma Bosco, Charlotte Wilson

🏅🔥

22:15

Men’s Moguls Final

Matt Graham, Jackson Harvey, George Murphy

🏅

Feb 13

00:56

Men's Snowboard Cross Finals

Adam Lambert, Cam Bolton, Jarryd Hughes

🏅

19:30

Women's Snowboard Cross Finals

Josie Baff, Abbey Wilson, Mia Clift

🏅

Feb 14

21:46

Women’s Dual Moguls Final

Jakara Anthony, Charlotte Wilson

🏅

Feb 15

08:42

Short Track (1500m Final)

Brendan Corey

21:46

Men’s Dual Moguls Final

Matt Graham, George Murphy

🏅

Feb 16

23:00

Alpine Skiing (Men's Slalom)

Harry Laidlaw

Feb 17

06:00

Pairs Figure Skating Final

A. Golubeva & H. Giotopoulos Moore

07:06

Women’s Monobob Final

Bree Walker

🏅

Feb 18

21:30

Women’s Aerials Final

Laura Peel, Danielle Scott, Abbey Willcox

🏅

23:30

Women’s Slalom Final

Madison Hoffman, Phoebe Heaydon

Feb 19

21:30

Men’s Aerials Final

Reilly Flanagan

Feb 21

05:30

Men’s Halfpipe Final

Scotty James, Valentino Guseli

🏅🔥

23:30

SkiMo Mixed Relay

Phil Bellingham & Lara Hamilton

Feb 22

05:30

Women’s Freeski Halfpipe Final

Indra Brown

🏅

07:05

Two-Woman Bobsleigh Final

Walker/Reddingius & Blizzard/Johnson

Feb 23

00:10

Men’s Ice Hockey Final

NHL Superstars

🔥

06:00

Closing Ceremony

Live from Milano

🔥

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Opening Ceremony + first medals - Saturday, February 7

Opening Ceremony at breakfast time, then the first gold medal awarded in primetime on Saturday. 

Harry Laidlaw represents Australia in the Men's Downhill, the Games' first Gold medal event, while cross-country skiers Rosie Fordham and Phoebe Cridland compete late Saturday night. 

This same-day pairing of ceremony and first medals creates maximum media saturation, with a full weekend news cycle processing before Monday's ASX open.

Key events

• Opening Ceremony: 6:00 am AEDT
• Men's Downhill Final (first gold medal of the games): 9:30 pm AEDT
• Women's 10km + 10km Skiathlon: 11:00 pm AEDT

For traders

• NEC (Nine Entertainment): Double viewership event. Opening Ceremony 6:00 am Saturday, lines up for the peak morning TV audience. First medals at 9:30 pm are a primetime Saturday night. 
• Italian equities (FTSE MIB): Historically underperform during domestic Olympics. Turin 2006 saw -2.1% during the Games.
• STLA (Stellantis): ESG headline risk if environmental groups target the ceremony.
• Apparel sponsor arbitrage: If a non-favourite wins Men's Downhill, their sponsor sees average +2.3% pop (PyeongChang 2018, Beijing 2022 data).

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First medals continue - Sunday, February 8

The medal rush continues on Sunday as 19-year-old Valentino Guseli takes flight in Men's Snowboard Big Air, offering Australia an early podium chance in one of the Games' most visually spectacular events. 

With the ceremony glow still fresh, Guseli's performance sets the tone for Australia's snowboard campaign and could influence Monday's ASX open positioning for action sports stocks.

Key events

• Men's Snowboard Big Air Final (Valentino Guseli): 5:30 am AEDT
• Women's Normal Hill Individual Final: 5:57 am AEDT

For traders

• MNST (Monster Beverage): Action sports sponsor, benefits from multi-athlete Olympic presence.
• FL (Foot Locker), ZUMZ (Zumiez): Youth retail action sports exposure. Guseli gold could create a temporary buzz.

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Monday, February 9

A rare quiet day in Australia's Olympic calendar. No Australian medal events are scheduled, making this a pure observation day for traders. 

Monitor how Guseli's weekend result is processed through Monday's ASX open, and position ahead of Tuesday's Coady showdown.

Tuesday, February 10

Tess Coady attempts to upgrade her 2022 bronze to gold in Women's Snowboard Big Air. The Tuesday morning timing offers traders a potential pre-market positioning window, though Coady's modest mainstream profile limits exposure compared to the moguls stars on the following day.

Key events

• Women's Snowboard Big Air Final: 5:30 am AEDT

For traders

• FL (Foot Locker), ZUMZ (Zumiez): Youth retail. Coady gold could create a temporary buzz.
• MNST (Monster Beverage): Less volatile, general action sports sponsor.

‍

Wednesday, February 11

The calm before Jakara Anthony. No Australian events on Wednesday means traders spend the day positioning for the biggest moment of the Games: Anthony's moguls final just past midnight.

‍

Moguls Finals - Thursday, February 12

The biggest moment of the Games for Australia arrives just after midnight on Wednesday with Jakara Anthony defending her Olympic crown in the Women's Moguls Final. 

As the nation's brightest gold medal hope with 26 World Cup victories, Anthony's 12:15 am performance is the single highest-impact potential event for NEC and VFC stocks across the entire Olympic fortnight.

Matt Graham also chases his first Olympic gold at 10:15 pm Thursday night. Both events carry high NEC and VFC volatility potential.

Key events

• Women's Moguls Final (Jakara Anthony): 12:15 am AEDT
• Men's Moguls Final (Matt Graham): 10:15 pm AEDT

For traders

• NEC (Nine Entertainment): Monitor overnight results and viewership for Thursday open direction.
• VFC (VF Corp/North Face): Sponsors both athletes. A double medal could bring a larger impact.
• Defending champion volatility: An Anthony loss could create higher emotional swings.
• Social sentiment: Track Twitter/Google Trends Thursday morning to gauge the magnitude of Anthony’s performance.

‍

Friday, February 13

Snowboard cross takes centre stage with two Australian medal chances bookending Friday's trading day. 

Adam Lambert's overnight final sets the morning open, while Josie Baff's evening showdown takes the Aus prime time slot.

Key events

• Men's Snowboard Cross Finals: 12:56 am AEDT
• Women's Snowboard Cross Finals: 7:30 pm AEDT

For traders

• NEC sentiment gauge: If Lambert medals Fri morning and Graham medaled Thu night, it could create positive momentum.

‍

Jakara Anthony competes - Saturday, February 14

Jakara Anthony goes for the double in Saturday night's Women's Dual Moguls Final.

If she claims gold Thursday and again here, the "double gold Jakara" narrative writes itself, offering geometric rather than linear media value. 

Key events

• Women's Dual Moguls Final (Jakara Anthony): 9:46 pm AEDT

For traders

• NEC narrative power: "Double gold Jakara" could draw in more casual viewers.
• If Anthony silver/bronze Thu: Redemption story potential.
• Weekend timing: Saturday night result = Monday ASX gap.
• Format risk: Monitor qualifying rounds; if margins are greater than 1 second (blowouts), engagement could drop.

‍

Sunday, February 15 

A quiet Sunday offers redemption arcs and low-impact action. Brendan Corey's morning short track effort carries minimal stock relevance, while Matt Graham's late-night dual moguls final provides a second medal chance after Friday's traditional event.

Key events

• Short Track Speed Skating 1500m Final: 8:42 am AEDT
• Men's Dual Moguls Final: 9:46 pm AEDT

For traders

• VFC second opportunity: If Graham misses on Friday’s moguls, dual moguls redemption is possible.

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Monday, February 16

Harry Laidlaw returns to the slopes for late Monday night slalom action, but alpine skiing holds minimal sway over Australian audiences. 

This is a placeholder day in the trading calendar, with markets more focused on digesting the weekend moguls results and positioning for Tuesday's monobob final.

Key events

• Men's Slalom: 11:00 pm AEDT

‍

Bree Walker competes - Tuesday, February 17

Bree Walker could make Olympic history as she competes in the Women's Monobob Final, chasing Australia's first-ever bobsleigh medal. 

While the narrative is powerful, the commercial reality is that bobsleigh has no retail sponsor footprint, limiting direct stock plays.

Key events

• Pairs Figure Skating Final: 6:00 am AEDT
• Women's Monobob Final: 7:06 am AEDT

For traders

• NEC: Bobsleigh historically gets low ratings, but a Walker gold could provide value as an Australian-first.

‍

Wednesday, February 18

Veterans Laura Peel and Danielle Scott take centre stage on Wednesday night in an event with proud Australian history (2 golds since 2002). However, aerials' niche appeal and late-night timing may limit market impact.

Key events

• Women's Aerials Final: 9:30 pm AEDT
• Women's Slalom Final: 11:30 pm AEDT

For traders

• NEC: If either medals, potential for a small sentiment boost.
• VFC exposure: Limited potential as aerials athletes are less commercially developed

‍

Thursday, February 19

Thursday night aerials effort is a low-impact finale event with minimal medal expectation for Australian Reilly Flanagan, and even less market relevance. 

Scotty James' Saturday halfpipe showdown is the real conversation as the games begin winding down, although a medal run from Flanagan could create an underdog narrative.

Key events

• Men's Aerials Final: 9:30 pm AEDT

Friday, February 20 

The final calm before Scotty James' legacy-defining Saturday. Set up day for James' 5:30 am Saturday halfpipe final, the Games' last major potential volatility event for an Aussie athlete.

Scotty James competes - Saturday, February 21

Scotty James' legacy moment arrives Saturday morning. He’s represented Australia at five Olympics, with two medals and zero golds. This is his final chance and brings with it the Games' most emotionally charged event, and the last major trading catalyst before Monday's Closing Ceremony.

Key events

• Men's Snowboard Halfpipe Final (Scotty James): 5:30 am AEDT
• SkiMo Mixed Relay: 11:30 pm AEDT

For traders

• NEC: Potential weekend delays on price discovery. If James gold Saturday.
• NKE (Nike): Potential halo effect from gold via action sports lift.
• Guseli wildcard: Valentino is also competing (his second event after Big Air, Feb 8). A dual medal could create narrative amplification.

‍

Sunday, February 22

Sixteen-year-old Indra Brown takes the Sunday morning spotlight in Women's Freeski Halfpipe, facing off against favourite Eileen Gu (CHN) in what could become a Gen-Z brand inflection point.

Key events

• Women's Freeski Halfpipe Final (Indra Brown): 5:30 am AEDT
• Two-Woman Bobsleigh Final: 7:05 am

For traders

• Mon-Tue watch: Monitor which brands announce Brown signings.
• MILN (Global X Millennials ETF): Action sports retailers, social platforms exposure for Gen Z.

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Closing Ceremony - Monday, February 23

The curtain falls on Milano Cortina 2026 with Monday morning's Closing Ceremony, and history says this is where euphoria dies. 

• Men's Ice Hockey Final (NHL Superstars): 12:10 am AEDT
• Closing Ceremony: 6:00 am AEDT

Markets to watch:

• French Alps 2030 rotation: Closing features handover to France.
• Australian medal count: If >4 medals (Beijing total), the government may increase 2030 winter sports funding.
• Ice Hockey Final: NHL players compete for the first time since 2014. Major US/Canada viewership means a potential CMCSA boost

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声明：本文旨在整理公开市场信息、梳理逻辑框架，不构成任何投资建议、交易指引或收益承诺。所有引用数据均来自公开渠道，并已尽可能核实。请读者结合自身情况独立判断，审慎决策。

摘要：高位震荡新常态

进入2026年，黄金市场并未如部分预期般“冷却”，而是进入了高位、高波动的“再平衡”阶段。截至1月9日，现货黄金价格在4,454美元/盎司附近盘整，虽较2025年12月26日创下的历史高点（4,549.92美元/盎司）有约2.1%的回调，但仍稳固地站在历史性的价格高位 [1]。这一价格水平的背后，是2025年金价超过64%的惊人涨幅——这是自1979年以来最强劲的年度表现之一 [2]。

当前市场的核心特征并非单边趋势的延续，而是在多重因素交织下的剧烈波动。投资者正在同时交易三大核心主题：货币政策预期、地缘政治风险与市场资金流向。理解这三大驱动力，是把握当前黄金市场脉搏的关键。

货币政策与美元：预期比现实更重要

在高位区间，黄金对利率和美元的敏感度被显著放大。市场的焦点已从“美联储已经做了什么”转向“下一步可能做什么”。

美联储的微妙平衡：近期偏软的劳动力市场数据，一度点燃了市场对美联储提前或加速降息的预期，为黄金提供了支撑。然而，任何显示经济韧性的数据（如强劲的非农就业报告）都可能迅速逆转这一预期，导致金价承压。这种在“降息预期”与“更高更久利率”之间的快速切换，是当前市场高波动性的主要来源之一。

值得注意的是，美联储的领导层也将在2026年迎来变数。现任主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的任期将于5月结束，市场普遍预期新任主席不太可能采取更为鹰派的政策立场，这为黄金的长期价值提供了潜在的政策底 [3]。

实际利率是理解这一逻辑的核心。作为一种无息资产，黄金的价格与实际利率（名义利率减去通胀预期）呈负相关。在当前降息周期的大背景下，即使降息步伐放缓，只要实际利率维持在低位，持有黄金的机会成本就相对较低，从而对其价格构成结构性支撑。

地缘政治与避险需求：风险溢价永久化

黄金作为“不确定性的定价工具”的角色在当前尤为凸显。牛津经济研究院的分析指出，地缘政治风险正从过去的“短暂冲击”演变为大宗商品定价的“永久性因素” [4]。

央行购金是这一趋势最直接的体现。中国人民银行已连续14个月增持黄金，截至2025年12月末，其黄金储备已达7,415万盎司 [5]。世界黄金协会的数据显示，全球央行在2025年持续净购入黄金，这股结构性的买盘力量为金价提供了坚实的底部支撑。

资金流向与市场结构：技术性因素的放大效应

除了宏观基本面，资金层面的技术性因素也在加剧市场波动。

指数再平衡：年初的彭博大宗商品指数（Bloomberg Commodity Index）年度权重调整，可能引发管理着数千亿美元的指数基金进行仓位调整，从而对包括黄金在内的贵金属价格造成短期扰动 [6]。

ETF持仓变化：全球最大的黄金ETF——SPDR Gold Trust（GLD）的持仓量变化是观察投资者情绪的重要窗口。数据显示，其持仓量在2025年底至2026年初维持在高位，表明投资者对黄金的配置需求依然旺盛 [7]。

高位获利了结：在经历了2025年的大幅上涨后，任何风吹草动都可能触发部分投资者的获利了结行为，这在短期内会放大价格的回调压力。

机构展望：谨慎乐观下的共识

尽管短期波动剧烈，但多家主流投行对2026年的黄金市场仍持谨慎乐观态度，普遍认为金价仍有上行空间，但高波动将是常态。

未来展望：两份关键数据与产业链传导

对于短期交易者而言，未来两周的两份美国经济数据将是关键的“波动性事件”：

美国12月非农就业报告 (NFP)：1月9日（美东时间08:30）发布。市场将重点关注新增就业人数、失业率，以及更能反映通胀压力的平均时薪增速。数据的“喜忧参半”最容易引发市场剧烈震荡。

美国12月消费者价格指数 (CPI)：1月13日（美东时间08:30）发布。除了总体CPI，市场将更关注剔除食品和能源的核心CPI以及服务业通胀，这些数据是判断美国通胀“粘性”和美联储降息空间的关键。

此外，金价的强势已经向上游产业链传导。以中国最大的黄金生产商紫金矿业为例，该公司预计2025年净利润将同比增长59%-62%，达到创纪录的51-52亿元人民币，其市值也跃升至全球矿业公司第二位 [8]。这表明，黄金的牛市不仅是金融市场的交易故事，也实实在在地影响着实体经济的盈利预期和资本开支。

风险提示与结语

综合来看，2026年的黄金市场正处在一个复杂的十字路口。一方面，宏观经济的不确定性、结构性的央行需求和持续的地缘政治风险，为金价提供了强有力的支撑。另一方面，历史高位的价格本身就意味着更高的波动性和回调风险。投资者在关注潜在上行空间的同时，也必须对市场的剧烈波动和潜在的下行风险保持高度警惕。

References

[1] Trading Economics. (2026). Gold | 1968-2026 Data | 2027-2028 Forecast. https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/gold

[2] Sina Finance. (2026). Gold Prices Surge Over 64% in One Year: Reasons Explained. https://finance.sina.com.cn

[3] HSBC. (2026, January 8). Gold Could Hit $5,000 an Ounce in First Half of 2026. https://www.reuters.com/business/gold-could-hit-5000-an-ounce-first-half-2026-says-hsbc-2026-01-08/

[4] Cailian Press. (2026). Commodity Markets Enter New Era: Geopolitical Risks Become "Permanent Pricing Mechanism". https://www.cls.cn

[5] FastBull. (2026). Trump's Disruption: Dollar-Gold Safe Haven Logic Shifts. https://m.fastbull.com

[6] Beijing News. (2026). Central Bank Increases Gold Holdings for 14 Consecutive Months; Foreign Exchange Reserves Rise for 5 Consecutive Months. https://www.bjnews.com.cn

[7] Reuters. (2026). Gold Trading Alert: Price Crashes Nearly 1% at High Levels. https://finance.sina.com.cn

[8] Sina Finance. (2026). Global Largest Gold ETF Fund SPDR Holdings Data. https://quotes.sina.cn

[9] Sina Finance. (2026). HSBC: Spot Gold Expected to Reach $5,000 per Ounce in First Half of 2026. https://finance.sina.com.cn

[10] Sina Finance. (2026). Morgan Stanley Prediction: Gold to Rise to $4,800 in Fourth Quarter of 2026. https://finance.sina.com.cn

[11] Wall Street News. (2026). Goldman Sachs Commodities Outlook: Central Bank Gold Buying + Fed Rate Cuts, Bullish on Gold in 2026. https://wallstreetcn.com

[12] Sina Finance. (2025, December 31). Zijin Mining 2025 Net Profit Expected to Increase 59%-62%: Gold, Silver, and Copper Volume and Price All Rise. https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2025-12-31/doc-inhesnwn9157323.shtml

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Global markets move into the new week with a number of potentially high-impact catalysts. Japan’s general election lands first on Sunday, followed by US inflation and labour market data that continue to shape interest-rate expectations. 

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• Japan election: Policy continuity and political stability are generally viewed as supportive for regional markets.
• US inflation and labour market: The consumer price index (CPI) and the Employment Situation report (nonfarm payrolls, NFP) are the immediate macro focal points for the week. 
• Bitcoin risk gauge: Bitcoin is back near levels last seen in late 2024 and remains well below its October 2025 peak.
• Sector rotation watch: Technology has recently underperformed while value and defensive segments have stabilised, with earnings season continuing to influence flows. 

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Japan election

The general election in Japan is primarily viewed through the lens of policy certainty. Markets typically favour a clear outcome and continuity in fiscal and monetary settings. 

Unexpected results or coalition uncertainty may increase short-term volatility in the JPY and regional indices at the start of the week.

Key dates

• General election (Japan): Sunday, 8 February
• Results through Asian trade on Monday

Market impact

• JPY may be sensitive to results uncertainty or potential changes in policy direction
• Asia equities may see early-week volatility until results are clear

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‍

US inflation and labour market

Inflation remains the most direct input into interest-rate expectations, while the monthly NFP report provides a broad read on employment conditions and wage pressures. 

Treasury yields and the USD often react quickly to these releases, with knock-on effects across equities, gold and growth assets. 

Current pricing indicates markets assign less than a 30% probability of a cut by the April meeting, with June meeting hike probabilities above 50%.

Key dates

• Employment Situation: Wednesday, 11 February 08:30 (ET) | Thursday, 12 February 00:30 (AEDT) 
• CPI (January 2026): Friday, 13 February 08:30 (ET) Saturday, 14 February 00:30 (AEDT) 

Market impact

• Yields often move first, followed by USD and then risk assets
• Expectations for rate-cut timing may adjust quickly
• Growth and technology shares remain more rate-sensitive

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Bitcoin

Bitcoin has declined to levels last seen prior to the US elections in November 2024 and is close to 50% below its October 2025 peak. 

While not a traditional macro indicator, crypto markets could be viewed as a real-time read on investor risk tolerance. Sustained weakness can coincide with more cautious positioning across higher-beta assets, including technology shares.

Market impact

• Softer crypto sentiment may coincide with reduced speculative flows
• Risk appetite may remain more selective
  
  

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Sector rotation

Over the past week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has outperformed, trading just below neutral, while the Nasdaq-100 has declined more than 4%, reflecting sensitivity in large-cap technology to firmer yields. 

What the move may reflect

• Rate-driven pressure on growth stocks
• Profit-taking after strong tech performance
• Earnings season favouring broader sector participation
• A generally more cautious tone across higher-beta assets

Markets typically look for sustained multi-week outperformance in financials, industrials or defensives before characterising the shift as structural rotation.

Market impact

• Tech remains more sensitive to yield moves
• Value and defensive sectors may see relative support
• Earnings guidance continues to influence leadership