The latest move in oil has put energy names back in focus. Over the past six months, Exxon Mobil and Baker Hughes have outperformed Brent crude on a normalised basis, Chevron has remained broadly constructive, SLB has lagged the commodity and Woodside's broker consensus has been more measured.

When crude moves, the impact rarely stays contained to the commodity itself. Higher oil prices can affect inflation expectations, shipping costs and corporate margins across the global economy.

What the latest move is showing

There are three broad ways companies can benefit from firmer oil prices:

1. Producing oil and gas, by selling the commodity at a higher price

2. Providing services and equipment to producers

3. Transporting oil around the world

Each of the names below represents one of those exposure types, with a different risk profile when crude rises.

1. Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM)

Over the past six months, Exxon Mobil has outperformed Brent crude, with its share price up nearly 35% compared with about 30% for Brent. As of 11 March 2026, both were trading just over 3% below their all-time highs, while Exxon remained closer to its 52-week high.

Exxon Mobil is one of the world's largest integrated oil companies, with exposure spanning exploration, production, refining and chemicals. When oil prices rise, its upstream business may benefit from wider margins, while its scale and diversification can help cushion weaker parts of the cycle.

Exxon Mobil (XOM) vs. Brent Crude 3-month performance

Analyst consensus: Buy

According to TradingView data, analyst sentiment towards Exxon is broadly positive. Of the 31 analysts tracked, 15 rate the stock Strong Buy or Buy, 13 rate it Hold, 1 rates it Sell and 2 rate it Strong Sell.

That positive view is linked to Exxon's balance sheet strength and higher-margin production. The most optimistic analysts project a 1-year price target as high as US$183.00. The average price target is US$145.00, which sits about 3.6% below the current trading price.

2. Chevron (NYSE: CVX)

Chevron is another global integrated major that has benefited from the recent move higher in crude, with its shares trading near 52-week highs. Like Exxon, Chevron operates across the value chain, including upstream production, refining and marketing.

Chevron's completed acquisition of Hess adds Guyana and other upstream assets, which some analysts see as supportive over time. That said, the earnings impact remains subject to integration, project execution and commodity price risks.

Exxon Mobil vs Chevron performance, 6-month chart

Analyst consensus: Buy

Chevron is viewed similarly to Exxon, with broker sentiment remaining broadly constructive. Recent TradingView aggregates show 30 analysts covering the stock over the past three months, with 17 rating it Strong Buy or Buy, 11 at Hold, 1 at Sell and 1 at Strong Sell.

Analysts have highlighted Chevron's diversified portfolio and the potential contribution from Hess, although commodity price volatility and execution risk may keep some more cautious.

3. SLB (NYSE: SLB)

SLB, previously known as Schlumberger, is one of the world's largest oilfield services and technology providers. It supplies tools, equipment and software that help producers find, drill and complete wells more efficiently.

Over the past six months, SLB has lagged Brent crude, with the share price trading in a choppier range and remaining below its recent peak. That suggests the stronger oil backdrop has not been fully reflected in the share price.

That pattern is not unusual for oilfield services companies, where customer spending decisions often follow moves in the underlying commodity rather than move in lockstep with them. Any future re-rating would depend on factors including producer capital spending, contract timing, service pricing, offshore activity and broader market conditions. A firmer oil price should not be assumed to translate automatically into a firmer SLB share price.

SLB vs Brent crude, 1-month normalised performance

Consensus: Buy

According to TradingView data, third-party analyst consensus on SLB is Buy. Of the 33 analysts covering the stock, 27 rate it Strong Buy or Buy, 4 rate it Hold and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell.

That indicates constructive broker sentiment, although the gap between oil prices and SLB's recent share-price performance suggests investors may still want clearer evidence of improving service demand and pricing before the stock fully reflects the stronger commodity backdrop.

4. Baker Hughes (NASDAQ: BKR)

Baker Hughes is another major oilfield services and equipment provider, with additional exposure to industrial segments such as LNG and power infrastructure. Even when oil prices are not at extreme highs, advances in drilling technology and lower break-even costs have helped keep many shale plays profitable, supporting demand for its services.

The company has also been described as well positioned because of its balance sheet and its exposure to ongoing exploration and production activity. In a period of higher, or even stable-to-firm, oil prices, that mix of services and energy technology may create several revenue drivers.

Over the past six months, Baker Hughes has materially outperformed Brent crude on a normalised basis. Brent traded in a much tighter range for most of the period before moving higher late, while BKR climbed more steadily and reached a significantly stronger cumulative gain. That suggests BKR's share price benefited not only from the backdrop in oil, but also from company-specific optimism and broader support for oilfield services and energy technology names.

BKR vs Brent crude, 6-month normalised performance

Analyst consensus: Buy

According to TradingView data, Baker Hughes is categorised as Strong Buy. Based on 25 analysts who provided ratings over the past three months, 16 rated the stock Strong Buy, 3 rated it Buy, 4 rated it Hold, 1 rated it Sell and 1 rated it Strong Sell.

Overall, broker sentiment towards Baker Hughes is broadly positive, with more than three quarters of covering analysts rating the stock either Strong Buy or Buy, while most of the remainder were at Hold. That supportive analyst view appears to reflect BKR's exposure to both traditional oilfield services and broader energy and industrial technology markets, including LNG infrastructure.

5. Woodside Energy (ASX: WDS)

Woodside Energy gives the list an Australia-based producer with significant exposure to LNG and oil markets. Its earnings are closely tied to realised commodity prices, which makes the stock sensitive to shifts in crude and gas pricing, as well as broader global energy demand.

Compared with some of the larger US energy names, broker sentiment towards Woodside appears more measured. Investors are balancing the company's global LNG exposure and leverage to stronger energy prices against softer recent realised prices, project and execution risks, and longer-term regulatory and decarbonisation pressures.

Analyst consensus: Hold

According to TradingView data, Woodside is rated Neutral/Hold. Of 15 analysts, 2 rate it Strong Buy, 4 rate it Buy, 7 rate it Hold, 1 rates it Sell and 1 rates it Strong Sell.

The average 12-month price target is A$29.20 versus a current price of about A$30.28, implying downside of roughly 3.6%. Relative to the larger US energy names in this list, that points to a more cautious broker view.

6. Global oil tanker operators

Oil tanker companies can benefit when firmer oil prices, OPEC+ policy shifts and geopolitical tension increase long-distance shipments and disrupt usual trade routes. When oil volumes travel further, 'tonne-mile' demand can support tanker day rates and profitability even when the broader energy market is volatile.

Analyst consensus: N/A

This is a broader industry category rather than a single publicly traded stock, so there is no single broker consensus to cite. Analyst views would need to be assessed at the company level, such as Frontline plc (FRO), Euronav (EURN) or Scorpio Tankers (STNG).

More broadly, the sector is cyclical. Any benefit from tighter shipping markets can reverse if routes normalise, freight rates fall or supply increases.

Risks and constraints

Higher oil prices do not remove risk for these names.

• If prices rise too far, too fast, demand destruction and policy responses can weigh on future earnings.

• Political decisions from OPEC+ or other major producers can reverse a rally by increasing supply.

• Services and tanker companies are highly cyclical. When the cycle turns, pricing power can fade quickly.

• Company-specific issues, including project execution, realised pricing and capital spending, still matter.

Taken together, these names may benefit from firmer oil prices, but they also carry sector-specific, geopolitical and company-level risks that deserve close attention.

Key market observations

• Woodside provides LNG and oil exposure, although current broker sentiment is more neutral than for the larger US names.
• Tanker operators may benefit when freight markets tighten, though that trade remains highly cyclical and route-dependent.
• SLB and Baker Hughes may benefit if firmer oil prices translate into more drilling and completion activity, but the share-price response has been mixed.
• Exxon Mobil and Chevron offer direct exposure to stronger upstream margins, supported by diversified operations.

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^{References in this article to Exxon Mobil, Chevron, SLB, Baker Hughes, Woodside, tanker operators, analyst consensus ratings and price targets are included for general market commentary only and do not constitute a recommendation or offer in relation to any financial product or security. Third-party data, including consensus ratings and target prices, may change without notice and should not be relied on in isolation. Energy and shipping exposures are cyclical and can be materially affected by commodity price volatility, realised pricing, production changes, project execution, geopolitical disruptions, freight market conditions, regulatory developments and shifts in investor sentiment. Any views about potential beneficiaries of higher oil prices are subject to significant uncertainty.}

Before the charts start talking, the region does. Over the weekend, the Middle East moved from tense to kinetic. Joint US and Israeli strikes hit targets inside Iran, and multiple outlets reported Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed. That single fact changes the whole market sentence structure and it is not just geopolitics, it is risk premia being re-priced in real time, across energy, volatility and the global growth outlook.

Markets do not trade tragedy, rather they trade uncertainty. When the uncertainty sits on top of global energy arteries, price discovery gets loud.

At a glance

• ‍What happened: Multiple major outlets reported that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed following joint US and Israeli strikes inside Iran, with Iranian state media cited as confirming his death.
• ‍What markets may focus on now: A fast-moving repricing of geopolitical risk premia, led by crude and refined products, plus cross-asset volatility as headlines drive liquidity, correlations and intraday ranges.
• ‍What is not happening yet: Markets may be pricing more of a headline risk premium than a fully evidenced, sustained physical supply disruption.
• ‍Next 24 to 72 hours: Focus is likely to stay on escalation signals and second-order constraints, including any impact on Gulf shipping routes and the policy and diplomatic track, including any UN Security Council dynamics.
• ‍Australia and Asia hook: Flight and airspace disruptions are already spilling beyond the region. For markets, Asia-facing sensitivities can show up through refinery margins and shipping and insurance costs, while AUD can behave as a risk barometer when global risk appetite is unstable.

Oil is the transmission mechanism

Brent crude spiked by as much as 13% in early trade on Monday 2 March, touching around US$82 per barrel in reporting, as the Strait of Hormuz risk moved from theoretical to immediate. The Strait matters because roughly one-fifth of global oil and gas shipments pass through it and when tankers hesitate, insurers re-price, and routes get re-written, energy becomes a volatility product.

Base case: partial disruption and higher “risk premium” in crude, with big intraday swings.
Upside risk: a sustained shipping slowdown or direct infrastructurehits, which some analysts warn could push crude materially higher.
Downside risk: de-escalation headlines, emergency supply responses, orclearer shipping protection that compresses the risk premium.

Read More: Where the world’s oil supply depth actually sits.

Volatility and equities

The VIX does not move in a vacuum, and this spike in uncertainty is already spilling into other asset classes in a fairly ‘textbook’ way. As volatility reprices, the market’s first instinct has been a flight to safety, alongside a scramble for commodities most exposed to the conflict.

Monday saw Asia opened with that tone: Japan’s Nikkei 225 was reported down around 2.4%, and Australia’s ASX 200 dipped before stabilising. At the same time, defensive positioning showed up in classic safe havens. Gold futures gapped higher by roughly 3% over the weekend, while traditional refuge currencies, led by the Swiss franc, attracted immediate inflows against both the euro and the US dollar.

Equity risk, by contrast, took the hit. US index futures, including the Dow and S&P 500, opened lower as desks moved to price in the twin threat of a wider regional conflict and the inflationary drag that can follow a sharp jump in energy costs.

Read More: Understanding volatility (and what it can mean for CFD trading conditions).

‍Safe havens do what they do

Gold rallied as the market reached for insurance. Reporting had gold up close to 3% in the same Monday session that oil surged. Worth noting for Aussie and Asia traders: when oil jumps and gold jumps together, the market is often telling you it is worried about both inflation and growth. That is a messy mix for central banks, including the RBA, because petrol-driven inflation can rise even as demand softens.

What this could mean for CFD risk management

Focus 1: map the event risk calendar

In headline-driven markets, prices can move faster than liquidity. The risk is not just being wrong; it can also be timing and execution risk in volatile conditions.

Some traders monitor which developments might change market sentiment (for example, official statements or verified operational updates). If you choose to trade, it may be worth understanding how price gaps and volatility could affect your position, including around session opens and major announcements.

Markets can gap or move quickly, and order execution (including stop orders, if used) may not occur at expected levels, especially in fast conditions or low liquidity. Features and outcomes depend on the product terms and market conditions.

Focus 2: watch the energy to inflation pathway

If crude remains elevated, markets may watch whether inflation expectations shift. If that occurs, it could influence rates, equities and FX and although outcomes depend on multiple factors and can change quickly.

That may be reflected in:

• Global bond yields, as rates markets adjust.
• Equity valuation sensitivity, particularly in long-duration and growth-heavy areas.
• FX moves, including across the Australian dollar, Japanese yen, and some commodity-linked currencies.

Want a comparable risk-premium setup? Look at Venezuela.

What to watch next

For general market context (not as a recommendation to trade), some observers monitor:

• Key headlines and official statements that point to escalation or de-escalation.
• Brent and WTI price action, including whether elevated levels persist beyond an initial spike.
• Inflation expectations and rates pricing, including moves in bond yields and market-based inflation measures.
• Risk-sentiment signals, including volatility levels and equity index futures behaviour around major sessions.

There's been plenty made this year about gold's incredible rise to new record levels. A point that gold bugs love to point out. As we sit here gold is trading at around US$2700oz having reached an all-time high that was just shy of US$2900oz.

Thus the question has to be asked: where is the limit? And where too from here for the inert metal? The movements over the last five years clearly suggest there is a structural change going on inside the very definition of what gold is. 14.7% in the last six months. 29.4% year to date. 34.2% in the last 12 months A staggering 82.3% in the last five years.

That is telling a story that is different to the original fundamentals we were taught at university and then as fundamental traders. Let's look at that theory: gold usually trades closely in line with interest rates, particularly US treasuries. As an asset that doesn't offer any yield it typically becomes less attractive to investors when interest rates are higher and usually more desirable when they fall.

That still technically holds true, However what has changed is how much central banks are interfering with that fundamental. Since 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine one of the main reactions from the West was to freeze Russian central bank assets. Since that point the Russian central bank particularly has been buying gold as a form of asset store/reserve.

It has also allowed it to avoid the full force of financial sanctions placed on it. But they're not the only ones doing this; emerging market central banks have also stepped up their purchasing of gold since this sanction was put in place and are rapidly increasing their own central bank reserves. Then we look at developed markets central banks.

The likes of the US, France, Germany and Italy have gold holdings that make up to 70% of their reserves are net buyers in the current market. That suggests something else is afoot. Are they concerned about debt sustainability?

Considering the US has $35 trillion of borrowings which is approximately 124% of GDP, do central banks around the world see risk? Considering that many central banks have the bulk of their reserves in US treasuries coupled with the upcoming unconventional administration in the Oval Office this certainly puts gold’s safe haven status in another light. There are truly unknowns with the upcoming trump administration and gold is clear hedging play against potential geopolitical shocks, trade tensions, tariffs, a slowing global economy, deft defaults and even the Federal Reserve subordination risk So what is the outlook for Gold over the coming years and just how high could it go?

Consensus over the next four years is quite divided: by the end of 2024 the consensus is for gold to be at US$2650oz and then easing through 2025 to 2027 to $2475oz. However there are some that are calling for gold to reach the record reached in September this year before surging towards $2900oz the end of 2025 and holding at this level through most of 2026. And right now who could blame this prediction - Gold bugs believe the confidence in gold’s enduring appeal amid a volatile macroeconomic and geopolitical landscape is a bullish bet.

Expectations for sustained diversification and safe-haven flows do appear structural and with central banks and investors seeking to mitigate risks in an environment characterised by persistent uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and economic volatility. And it's more than just the demand side that's leading the charge. The supply side of the equation further supports our bullish outlook.

Gold mine production is inherently slow to respond to rising prices due to long lead times for exploration, development, and production ramp-up. Furthermore, major producers avoid aggressive hedging strategies, as shareholders typically prefer full exposure to gold’s upside potential. The supportive fundamental backdrop reinforces that demand from both the official sector and consumers will remain robust, while supply-side constraints provide a natural tailwind for price appreciation.

What we as traders need to be aware of is many investors actually believe they've missed the rally and are wary of buying gold at all-time highs. There are some that believe gold is due pull back even a correction as they struggle to make sense of gold in the new world. The divergence away from yields coupled with unknowns out of China and the US has made them nervous to buy this rally.

But we would argue the pullback has probably already happened. If we look at the gold chart, since the US presidential election gold has moved through quite a reasonable downside shift. Dropping from its record all time high to a low $2530oz.

That decline has clearly been cauterised and the momentum now is clearly to the upside. We can see from the chart that spot prices are now testing the September-October consolidation period. Any clean break above these levels would see it going back to testing the head and shoulders pattern at the end of October-November.

This will be the keys to gold for the rest of 2024. But whatever happens in the short term the long-term trend suggests there is more for the gold bugs to delight in.