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Eyes on the Fed and the Dot Plots
GO Markets
15/5/2023
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Global central banks have been a crucial part in providing aid and support to the global economy during the coronavirus pandemic. Faced with an unprecedented crisis, central bankers have rapidly deployed various monetary tools to keep credit flowing and support businesses and households. Given that interest rates were somewhat already at record-lows in many major countries, asset purchase schemes were widely used to put downward pressure on long-term rates.

Monetary policies were also accompanied by huge fiscal intervention. Also, in a coordinated action to enhance the provision of liquidity via the standing US dollar liquidity swap line, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, and the Swiss National Bank have even agreed to lower their rates on currency swaps. What's Next?

The two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting which will end on Wednesday with a statement followed by a press conference will be heavily eyed. Markets will likely look for clues on how the Fed’s is viewing the health of the economy after easing lockdown measures. Even though Friday’s jobs report came much better-than-expected and there was a decline in the unemployment rate from 14.7% to 13.3% in May, it is widely expected that the FOMC will keep rates steady near zero.

The scenario of negative interest rates is also highly unlikely. As the pandemic continues to create havoc on the global economy, it is also reshaping the political dynamics: Quarterly Forecasts Much attention will, therefore, be on the economic and interest rate forecasts. The Fed refrained from providing any forecasts during the pandemic given the tremendous uncertainties about the economic outlook.

This Fed’s meeting has, therefore, the potential to move markets if much details are revealed about future plans and expectations for inflation, GDP and unemployment. The projections are expected to be much worse than the favourable outlook seen in the last forecasts back in December. Dot Plots High unemployment and weak inflation have been the key factors forcing central banks to keep rates at record low levels.

The recent jobs reports came as a surprise and have raised expectations that the labour market may be rebounding at a quicker pace than expected. Investors would, therefore, look for explicit guidance from the Fed on how long they will likely keep rates near zero. Even though the economic outlook remains highly uncertain, the so-called dot plot which shows the entries of the FOMC officials regarding the interest rate forecasts will be scrutinized for guidance.

Latest dot plots – December 2019 Yield Curve Control As short-term interest rates approach zero, there have been recent speculations of the possibility that the Federal Reserve may control the yield curve and cap specific yields to cushion the impact of a downturn. Stock Market Global stocks have rallied significantly since March lows on the back of massive economic stimulus packages from central banks and governments which will likely stay in place for a while. In an extremely low-interest rate environment, quantitative easing and large fiscal policy measures have absorbed the pandemic-induced shocks and camouflaged the stark reality of the impact of the coronavirus.

On Monday, investors drove the S&P500 to a 15-week high, erasing its 2020 losses– lifted by heightened expectations of a quicker recovery and a supportive Federal Reserve. After a great run to the upside, investors appear to be taking a pause and booked profits ahead of the Fed’s decision. Equity traders would want to hear that the Fed will stay accommodative, keep interest rates unchanged and remains committed to supporting the economy while still striking some optimistic tones on the recovery of the economy.

US Dollar The US dollar was mostly weaker against major currencies as risk sentiment has improved lifted by heightened expectations of a quicker recovery following the reopening of economies earlier than initially expected. The surprising nonfarm payrolls have fueled those expectations and kept the greenback on the downside. If the Fed is set to look into the yield curve control as per the speculations, the US dollar may come under more pressure.

Source: Bloomberg Gold Amid the reopening of economies, geopolitical risks and a weaker US dollar, the precious metal has been trading sideways within a $70 range as traders wait for the next biggest catalyst. As of writing, gold has firmed higher above the $1,700. Gold traders will eye the outcome of the Fed’s two-day policy meeting.

XAUUSD (Daily Chart) Source: GO MT4

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GO Markets

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Fundamental analysis
Market insights
Central Banks
Why is the Federal Reserve independent, and why does it matter?

For over 110 years, the Federal Reserve (the Fed) has operated at a deliberate distance from the White House and Congress.

It is the only federal agency that doesn’t report to any single branch of government in the way most agencies do, and can implement policy without waiting for political approval.

These policies include interest rate decisions, adjusting the money supply, emergency lending to banks, capital reserve requirements for banks, and determining which financial institutions require heightened oversight.

The Fed can act independently on all these critical economic decisions and more.

But why does the US government enable this? And why is it that nearly every major economy has adopted a similar model for their central bank?

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The foundation of Fed independence: the panic of 1907

The Fed was established in 1913 following the Panic of 1907, a major financial crisis. It saw major banks collapse, the stock market drop nearly 50%, and credit markets freeze across the country.

At the time, the US had no central authority to inject liquidity into the banking system during emergencies or to prevent cascading bank failures from toppling the entire economy. 

J.P. Morgan personally orchestrated a bailout using his own fortune, highlighting just how fragile the US financial system had become.

The debate that followed revealed that while the US clearly needed a central bank, politicians were objectively seen as poorly positioned to run it.

Previous attempts at central banking had failed partly due to political interference. Presidents and Congress had used monetary policy to serve short-term political goals rather than long-term economic stability.

So it was decided that a stand-alone body responsible for making all major economic decisions would be created. Essentially, the Fed was created because politicians, who face elections and public pressure, couldn’t be relied upon to make unpopular decisions when needed for the long-term economy.

First Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System | Museum of American Finance

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How does Fed independence work?

Although the Fed is designed to be an autonomous body, separate from political influence, it still has accountability to the US government (and thereby US voters). 

The President is responsible for appointing the Fed Chair and the seven Governors of the Federal Reserve Board, subject to confirmation by the Senate. 

Each Governor serves a 14-year term, and the Chair serves a four-year term. The Governors' terms are staggered to prevent any single administration from being able to change the entire board overnight.

Beyond this “main” board, there are twelve regional Federal Reserve Banks that operate across the country. Their presidents are appointed by private-sector boards and approved by the Fed's seven Governors. Five of these presidents vote on interest rates at any given time, alongside the seven Governors.

This creates a decentralised structure where no single person or political party can dictate monetary policy. Changing the Fed's direction requires consensus across multiple appointees from different administrations.

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The case for Fed independence: Nixon, Burns, and the inflation hangover

The strongest argument for keeping the Fed independent comes from Nixon’s time as president in the 1970s.

Nixon pressured Fed Chair Arthur Burns to keep interest rates low in the lead-up to the 1972 election. Burns complied, and Nixon won in a landslide. Over the next decade, unemployment and inflation both rose simultaneously (commonly referred to now as “stagflation”). 

By the late 1970s, inflation exceeded 13 per cent, Nixon was out of office, and it was time to appoint a new Fed chair.

That new Fed chair was Paul Volcker. And despite public and political pressure to bring down interest rates and reduce unemployment, he pushed the rate up to more than 19 per cent to try to break inflation. 

The decision triggered a brutal recession, with unemployment hitting nearly 11 per cent. 

But by the mid-1980s, inflation had dropped back into the low single digits. 

Pre-Volcker era inflation vs Volcker era inflation | FRED

Volcker stood firm where non-independent politicians would have backflipped in the face of plummeting poll numbers.

The “Volcker era” is now taught as a masterclass in why central banks need independence. The painful medicine worked because the Fed could withstand political backlash that would have broken a less autonomous institution.

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Are other central banks independent? 

Nearly every major developed economy has an independent central bank. The European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Bank of England, Bank of Canada, and Reserve Bank of Australia all operate with similar autonomy from their governments as the Fed.

However, there are examples of developed nations that have moved away from independent central banks.

In Turkey, the president forced its central bank to maintain low rates even as inflation soared past 85 per cent. The decision served short-term political goals while devastating the purchasing power of everyday people.

Argentina's recurring economic crises have been exacerbated by monetary policy subordinated to political needs. Venezuela's hyperinflation accelerated after the government asserted greater control over its central bank.

The pattern tends to show that the more control the government has over monetary policy, the more the economy leans toward instability and higher inflation.

Independent central banks may not be perfect, but they have historically outperformed the alternative.

Turkey’s interest rates dropped in 2022 despite inflation skyrocketing

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Why do markets care about Fed independence?

Markets generally prefer predictability, and independent central banks make more predictable decisions.

Fed officials often outline how they plan to adjust policy and what their preferred data points are. 

Currently, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) monthly jobs reports, and quarterly GDP releases form expectations about the future path of interest rates.

This transparency and predictability help businesses map out investments, banks to set lending rates, and everyday people to plan major financial decisions.

When political influence infiltrates these decisions, it introduces uncertainty. Instead of following predictable patterns based on publicly released data, interest rates can shift based on electoral considerations or political preference, which makes long-term planning more difficult.

The markets react to this uncertainty through stock price volatility, potential bond yield rises, and fluctuating currency values.

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The enduring logic

The independence of the Federal Reserve is about recognising that stable money and sustainable growth require institutions capable of making unpopular decisions when economic fundamentals demand them.

Elections will always create pressure for easier monetary conditions. Inflation will always tempt policymakers to delay painful adjustments. And the political calendar will never align perfectly with economic cycles. 

Fed independence exists to navigate these eternal tensions, not perfectly, but better than political control has managed throughout history.

That's why this principle, forged in financial panics and refined through successive crises, remains central to how modern economies function. And it's why debates about central bank independence, whenever they arise, touch something fundamental about how democracies can maintain long-term prosperity.

GO Markets
•
February 4, 2026
Central Banks
Where to for FY26 and beyond?

The ASX 200 closed out the 2025 financial year on a high, reaching a new intra-month peak of 8,592 in June and within touching distance of the all-time record. The index delivered a 1.4% total return for the month, rounding off a strong final quarter with a 9.5% return and locking in a full-year gain of 13.8% — its best performance since 2021.This strong finish all came down to the postponement of the Liberation Day tariffs. From the April 7 lows through to the end of the financial year, the ASX followed the rest of the world. Mid-cap stocks were the standout performers, beating both large and small caps as investors sought growth opportunities away from the extremes of the market. Among the sectors, Industrials outperformed Resources, benefiting from more stable earnings and supportive macroeconomic trends tied to infrastructure and logistics.But the clear winner was Financials, which contributed an incredible 921 basis points to the overall index return. CBA was clearly the leader here, dominating everything with 457 basis points on its own. Westpac, NAB, and others also played a role, but nothing even remotely close to CBA. The Industrials and Consumer Discretionary sectors made meaningful contributions, adding 176 and 153 basis points, respectively. While Materials, Healthcare, and Energy all lagged, each detracting around 45 to 49 basis points. Looking at the final quarter of the financial year, Financials were by far the biggest player again, adding 524 basis points — more than half the quarter’s total return of 9.5%. Apart from a slight drag from the Materials sector, all other parts of the market made positive contributions. Real Estate, Technology, and Consumer Discretionary followed behind as key drivers. Once again, CBA was the largest individual contributor, adding 243 basis points in the quarter, while NAB, WBC, and Macquarie Group added a combined 384 basis points. On the other side of the ledger, key underperformers included BHP, CSL, Rio Tinto, Treasury Wine Estates, and IDP Education, which all weighed on quarterly performance.One of the most defining features of the 2025 financial year was the dominance of price momentum as a market driver — something we as traders must be aware of. Momentum strategies far outpaced more traditional, fundamental-based approaches such as Growth, Value, and Quality. The most effective signal was a nine-month momentum measure (less the most recent month), which delivered a 31.2% long-short return. The more commonly used 12-month price momentum factor was also highly effective, returning 23.6%. By contrast, short-term reversals buying last month’s losers and selling last month’s winners was the worst-performing approach, with a negative 16.4% return. Compared to the rest of the world, the Australian market was one of the strongest trades for momentum globally, well ahead of both the US and Europe, despite its relatively slow overall performance.Note: these strategies are prone to reversal, and in the early days of the new financial year, there has been a notable shift away from momentum-based trading to other areas. Now is probably too early to say whether this marks a sustained change, but it cannot be ignored, and caution is always advised.The second big story of FY26 will be CBA. CBA’s growing influence was a key story of FY25. Its weight in the index rose by an average of 2.1 percentage points across the year, reaching an average of 11.5% by June. That helped push the spread between the Financials and Resources sectors to 15.8 percentage points — the widest gap since 2018. Despite the strong cash returns, market valuations are eye-watering; at one point during June, CBA became the world’s most expensive bank on price metrics. The forward price-to-earnings multiple now sits at 18.9 times. This is well above the long-term average of 14.7 and higher than the 10-year benchmark of 16.1. Meanwhile, the dividend yield has slipped to 3.4%, down from the historical average of 4.4%. Earnings momentum remains soft, with FY25 growth estimates still tracking at 1.4%, and FY26 forecast at a moderate 5.4%. This suggests that recent gains have come more from expanding valuation multiples than from actual earnings upgrades, making the August reporting date a catalyst day for it and, by its size, the market as a whole.On the macro front, attention now turns to the Reserve Bank of Australia. The central bank cut the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.6% at its July meeting. Recent commentary from the RBA has taken on a more dovish tone, with benign inflation data and ongoing global uncertainty expected to outweigh the strength of the labour market. The RBA appears to be steering toward a neutral policy stance, and markets will be watching for further signals on how that shift will be managed. Recent economic data has been mixed. May retail sales were weaker than expected, while broader household spending indicators held up slightly better. Building approvals saw a smaller-than-hoped-for bounce, employment remains strong, but productivity is low. Inflation is now at a 3-year low and falling; all this points to underlying support from the RBA’s easing bias both now and into the first half of FY26.As we move into FY26, the key questions are:

  1. Can fundamentals wrestle back control over momentum?
  2. Will earnings growth catch up to price to justify valuations?
  3. How will policy decisions from the RBA and other central banks shape investor sentiment in an ever-volatile world?

While the early signs suggest a possible rotation, the jury is still out on whether this marks a new phase for the Australian market or just a brief pause in the rally that defined FY25.

Evan Lucas
•
July 8, 2025
Central Banks
3 Key Takeaways From the June FOMC Meeting

1. Inflation Uncertainty

While recent data has shown core inflation moderating, core PCE is on track to average below target at just 1.6% annualised over the past three months.Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell made clear that concerns about future inflation, especially from tariffs, remain top of mind.“If you just look backwards at the data, that’s what you would say… but we have to be forward-looking,” Powell said. “We expect a meaningful amount of inflation to arrive in the coming months, and we have to take that into account.”While the economy remains strong enough to buy time, policymakers are closely monitoring how tariff-related costs evolve before shifting policy. Powell also stated that without these forward-looking risks, rates would likely already be closer to the neutral rate, which is a full 100 basis points from current levels.

2. The Unemployment Rate anchor

Powell repeatedly cited the 4.2% unemployment rate during the press conference, mentioning it six times as the primary reason for keeping rates in restrictive territory. At this level, employment is ahead of the neutral rate.“The U.S. economy is in solid shape… job creation is at a healthy level,” Powell added that real wages are rising and participation remains relatively strong. He did, however, acknowledge that uncertainty around tariffs remains a constraint on future employment intentions.If not for a decline in labour force participation in May, the unemployment rate would already be closer to 4.6%. Couple this with the continuing jobless claims ticking up and hiring rates subdued, risks are building around labour market softening.

3. Autumn Meetings are Live

While avoiding firm forward guidance, Powell hinted at a timeline:“It could come quickly. It could not come quickly… We feel like the right thing to do is to be where we are… and just learn more.”This suggests the Fed will remain on hold through the July meeting, using the summer to assess incoming data, particularly whether tariffs meaningfully push inflation higher. If those effects prove limited and unemployment begins to rise, the stage could be set for a rate cut in September.

Evan Lucas
•
June 24, 2025
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Top 5 ASX IPO candidates in 2026

From AI infrastructure to pet care, semiconductors, and gold exploration, here are the five top candidates most likely to list on the ASX in 2026.

What is an Initial public offering (IPO)?

1. Firmus Technologies

Firmus Technologies is building AI-powered data centre infrastructure in Tasmania, and it may be one of the most strategically positioned tech companies in Australia right now.

Firmus is an Nvidia Cloud Partner and has joined the GPU maker's Lepton marketplace. The company has designed its modular, liquid-everywhere AI Factory platform to evolve with Nvidia's latest architectures, including Nvidia Spectrum-X Ethernet networking.

A September 2025 raise of A$330m closed at a post-money valuation of A$1.85 billion for the company. By November 2025, after a further A$500m raise, that valuation had trebled to approximately A$6 billion. 

A subsequent A$100m investment from Maas Group in early 2026 confirmed the November valuation. Firmus is reported to be contemplating an ASX IPO within the next 12 months and, given the A$6 billion private valuation, any public raise is expected to be well above A$1 billion.

With Australia's growing demand for sovereign AI compute capacity and Tasmania's cool climate and renewable energy advantage for large-scale data centre operations, Firmus stands as one of the largest-scale ASX IPO candidates in 2026.

However, although market interest in Firmus appears to be growing, timing is everything when it comes to IPOs. Watch for confirmation of exact IPO timing, AI data centres sentiment, and whether Nvidia signals deepening its involvement as a strategic anchor investor post-listing.

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2. Rokt

Sydney-founded Rokt has quietly become one of Australia's most valuable private tech companies. The e-commerce adtech platform aimed at helping brands monetise the “transaction moment” is now valued at ~US$7.9 billion.

A term sheet prepared by MA Financial projected an exit share price of US$72 under base-case scenarios, when shares are freed from escrow in November 2027. 

Rokt is expected to potentially dual-list in the US and on the ASX in 2026, possibly as soon as the first half of the year. IG The most widely discussed structure is a primary Nasdaq listing with an ASX CDI (CHESS Depositary Interest) structure for Australian investors, rather than a full dual listing.

Rokt’s revenue for the year ending August 2025 is projected at US$743m (up 48% year-over-year), with EBITDA forecast at US$100m and a gross profit margin of approximately 43%. It is currently projected to cross the $US1 billion annual revenue milestone by August 2026.

Amazon, Live Nation, and Uber are all reported to be Rokt customers, and the company has expanded rapidly across North America and Europe.

Whether Rokt opts for a primary Nasdaq listing with an ASX CDI structure, or a full dual listing, could significantly affect liquidity and local investor access.

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3. Greencross

Greencross, the business behind Petbarn, City Farmers, and Greencross Vets, is preparing to relist on the ASX after being taken private by US private equity firm TPG in 2019. 

TPG currently owns 55% of Greencross, while AustralianSuper and the Healthcare of Ontario Pension Plan (HOOPP) hold the remaining 45%. 

The company reported revenue of A$2 billion for the 2025 financial year, a modest increase from A$1.95 billion in 2024. TPG paid A$675 million in equity value for the business in 2019; it sold a 45% stake in 2022 at a valuation of more than A$3.5 billion. The proposed IPO implies a valuation of more than A$4 billion.

TPG is targeting an initial public offering of at least A$700 million. The IPO will mark Greencross's return to the ASX after an eight-year absence. TPG's relatively small raise size suggests the firm is banking on strong aftermarket performance before fully exiting.

TPG's exit timeline announcement is still a watch for whether a 2026 IPO is on the cards. And whether the company pursues a traditional IPO or a trade sale, which remains an alternative path.

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4. Morse Micro

Morse Micro is a Sydney-based semiconductor company developing Wi-Fi HaLow chips designed for IoT applications across agriculture, logistics, smart cities, and industrial monitoring.

Morse Micro held a Series C round in September 2025, raising US$88 million, followed in November 2025 by a US$32 million pre-IPO raise, taking total funding to over A$300 million. 

It is targeting an ASX listing in the next 12–18 months. The Series C was led by Japanese chip giant MegaChips and the National Reconstruction Fund Corporation.

Global IoT device connections forecast to exceed 30 billion by 2030, and Morse Micro would be a rare ASX-listed pure-play semiconductor company, which could attract significant interest from tech-focused fund managers.

Global IoT market forecast (in billions of connected IoT devices) | IOT Analytics

Morse Micro’s Revenue traction with tier-one hardware partners ahead of listing is a watch, and whether the company seeks a concurrent US listing given the depth of US semiconductor investor appetite.

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5. Bison Resources

Bison Resources is a newly incorporated US-focused gold and precious metals explorer currently in the middle of its ASX IPO. 

The offer closes on 20 March 2026, with an ASX listing targeted for mid-April 2026. At an indicative market capitalisation of A$13.25 million on full subscription, Bison is the most speculative name on this list by a significant margin.

The company holds four exploration projects in north-east Nevada, within the Carlin Trend (one of the world's most prolific gold-producing belts), responsible for approximately 75% of US gold output. 

The IPO seeks to raise A$4.5 to A$5.5 million (22.5 to 27.5 million shares at A$0.20 per share). The team has prior experience at Sun Silver (ASX: SS1) and Black Bear Minerals, giving it a track record in ASX junior mining listings out of Nevada.

Global IPOs: What are the biggest IPOs happening globally in 2026?

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Bottom line

Australia's 2026 IPO calendar spans the full risk spectrum. A Nvidia-backed AI infrastructure play, a billion-dollar e-commerce platform, and a junior gold explorer with its IPO already underway. 

Each candidate reflects a different stage of maturity and a different investor profile. Together, they suggest the ASX could see a meaningful injection of new listings across sectors that have been largely absent from the local market in recent years.

GO Markets
•
March 11, 2026
higher oil prices, oil stocks, energy stocks, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, SLB, Baker Hughes, Woodside Energy, tanker stocks, crude oil prices, oil market outlook, energy sector risks
Commodity
Geopolitical events
Oil, Metals, Soft Commodities
Market insights
What rising oil prices could mean for Exxon, Chevron, SLB, Baker Hughes and Woodside

Oil prices tend to rise when demand is strong, supply is constrained or geopolitical events disrupt normal trade flows. In this case, the US and Israel appeared to act pre-emptively in what they saw as a defensive move. The broader market impact has been felt more widely.

When oil prices move, they rarely move in isolation. Higher crude prices can affect inflation, central bank expectations, shipping costs and corporate margins across the global economy.

What is happening

There are three broad ways companies can benefit from higher oil prices:

1. Producing oil and gas, by selling the commodity at a higher price
2. Providing services and equipment to producers
3. Transporting oil around the world

Each of the stocks below represents one of those exposure types, with a different risk profile when crude climbs.

1. Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM)

Exxon Mobil is one of the world’s largest integrated oil companies, involved in everything from exploring for and producing oil to refining it into fuel and producing chemicals. When oil prices rise, its upstream business may benefit from wider margins, while its size and diversification can help cushion weaker spots in the cycle.

Exxon has major positions in growth regions such as the US Permian Basin and large offshore projects, which are designed to deliver relatively low-cost barrels over many years. When prices are high, low-cost production may support free cash flow and the company’s capacity for dividends, buybacks or further investment.

Exxon Mobil (XOM) vs. Brent Crude 6-month performance
The Big Picture Both oil and Exxon shares have had a strong year, but Exxon slightly outpaced the commodity itself. While the price of Brent oil climbed about 30%, Exxon’s stock price did even better, rising nearly 35%. Closeness to Peak Prices Both are currently trading very close to their highest prices ever. Brent Oil is only about 3.3% away from its all-time high. Exxon is sitting at a similar distance, also about 3.3% below its record peak. Where They Stand Now If you look at their price movement over the last 52 weeks: Exxon is trading near the top of its yearly range (85% of the way to its 52-week high), showing a lot of recent momentum. Brent Oil is sitting right in the middle of its yearly range (52%), suggesting it has had more ups and downs throughout the year compared to Exxon’s steadier climb
Over the past year, Exxon Mobil has outperformed Brent crude, with its share price rising nearly 35% compared with a 30% increase in Brent crude. As of the date of writing, both are trading just over 3% below their all-time highs, although Exxon remains closer to its 52-week high than Brent. | Source: Share Trader

Consensus: Buy

According to TradingView, analyst sentiment towards Exxon is broadly positive, with a consensus Buy rating. Of the 31 analysts tracked, 15 rate the stock as Strong Buy or Buy, while 13 rate it Hold.

The positive view is linked to Exxon’s balance sheet strength and higher-margin production, with the most optimistic analysts projecting a 1-year price target as high as US$183.00. However, a small minority of 3 analysts has issued a Sell or Strong Sell rating, contributing to an average price target of US$145.00, which sits about 3.6% below the current trading price.

According to TradingView, analyst sentiment towards Exxon is broadly positive, with a consensus Buy rating. Of the 31 analysts tracked, 15 rate the stock as Strong Buy or Buy, while 13 rate it Hold.
Exxon Mobil price forecast and ratings as of Wednesday, 11 March 2026 | Source: TradingView

2. Chevron (NYSE: CVX)

Chevron is another global integrated major that has benefited from the recent move higher in crude, with its shares trading near 52-week highs. Like Exxon, Chevron operates across the value chain, including upstream production, refining and marketing. Chevron’s completed acquisition of Hess adds Guyana and other upstream assets, which some analysts see as supportive over time, although the earnings impact remains subject to integration, project execution and commodity-price risks.

In an environment where oil and gas prices can be volatile, that diversification may help smooth earnings while still providing leverage to stronger energy prices.

Exxon Mobil vs Chevron performance, 6-month chart

Consensus: Buy

Chevron is viewed similarly to Exxon, with broker sentiment remaining broadly constructive. Recent TradingView aggregates show 30 analysts covering the stock over the past three months, with 17 rating it Strong Buy or Buy, 11 at Hold, 1 at Sell and 1 at Strong Sell. Analysts have highlighted its diversified portfolio and the potential contribution from Hess, although commodity-price volatility and execution risks may keep some more cautious.

ecent TradingView aggregates show 30 analysts covering the stock over the past three months, with 17 rating it Strong Buy or Buy, 11 at Hold, 1 at Sell and 1 at Strong Sell.
Chevron price forecast and ratings as of Wednesday, 11 March 2026. | Source: TradingView

3. SLB (NYSE: SLB)

Higher oil prices do not only affect producers. In this case, SLB (formerly Schlumberger) is one of the world’s largest oilfield services companies, providing technology, equipment and services that help producers find and extract hydrocarbons more efficiently. When crude trends higher, producers may increase drilling and completion activity, which can lift demand for SLB’s services and software. Recent commentary has also pointed to the company’s growing digital business and global exposure, which may support earnings growth if the upcycle continues.

Consensus: Buy

According to TradingView, analyst consensus on SLB is Buy, indicating broadly positive sentiment. Of the 33 analysts tracked, 27 rate the stock Strong Buy or Buy, while 4 rate it Hold and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell.

Analyst sentiment appears to reflect expectations around SLB’s position as a broader technology partner. The average price target of US$55.71 implies 15.8% upside from current levels, while the highest target stands at US$74.00. These forecasts appear to be linked to expectations of increased international drilling activity and a recovery in offshore deepwater markets.

Data shows analyst sentiment on SLB remains broadly positive, with 27 of 33 analysts rating the stock Buy or Strong Buy. The average price target of US$55.71 implies around 18% upside from current levels, although views remain mixed on how strongly digital growth and offshore activity may support the outlook.
SLB analysts bullish on digital and international growth | TradingView

4. Baker Hughes (NYSE: BKR)

Baker Hughes is another major oilfield services and equipment provider, with additional exposure to industrial segments such as LNG and power infrastructure. Even when oil prices are not at extreme highs, advances in drilling technology and lower break-even costs have helped keep many shale plays profitable, supporting demand for its services.  

The company has been described as well positioned because of its balance sheet and its exposure to ongoing exploration and production activity. In a period of higher, or even stable-to-firm, oil prices, that mix of services and energy technology may create several revenue drivers.

Consensus: Strong Buy

Broker sentiment towards Baker Hughes is broadly positive, similar to SLB. More than 75% of covering analysts rate the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy, with the remainder generally at Hold. Analysts have pointed to its exposure to both traditional oilfield services and energy and industrial technology, including LNG infrastructure.

[CHART]

Transport and shipping exposure

5. Global oil tanker operators

Oil tanker companies can benefit when higher prices, OPEC+ policy shifts and geopolitical tensions increase long-distance shipments and disrupt usual routes.

Recent reports have pointed to stronger freight rates and high volumes of oil in transit, as increased production from the Middle East and supply growth from the US, Brazil, Guyana and Canada flow towards Asian markets. That ‘tonne-mile’ demand may support tanker day rates and profitability even when the broader energy market is volatile.

Consensus: N/A

This is a broader industry category rather than a single publicly traded stock, so there is no single broker consensus for it. Analyst views would need to be assessed at the company level, such as Frontline plc (FRO), Euronav (EURN) or Scorpio Tankers (STNG). More broadly, the sector is often viewed as cyclical, although current conditions may support freight rates when geopolitical disruptions lengthen shipping routes.

6. Woodside Energy (ASX: WDS)

Woodside adds an Australia-based name with global LNG and oil exposure. Its 2024 full-year results showed underlying profit down 13%, primarily because of lower realised oil and gas prices, according to the company’s full-year results announcement. That highlights how sensitive earnings can be to commodity price realisation.

If crude and related energy prices strengthen, Woodside’s earnings outlook may improve, although the extent of that change will still depend on company-specific factors and realised pricing.

Consensus: Hold

In contrast to the larger US majors, broker sentiment towards this Australian-based producer is more cautious, with consensus generally at Hold. Most analysts favour maintaining existing positions rather than increasing exposure. That more measured view is often linked to its LNG pricing exposure, softer realised commodity prices and longer-term regulatory and decarbonisation pressures.

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Risks and constraints

Higher oil prices are not a free ride for these stocks.

  • If prices spike too far, too fast, they may trigger demand destruction and policy responses that weigh on future profits.  
  • Political decisions from OPEC+ or major producers mau reverse a rally by increasing supply.  
  • Services and tanker companies are highly cyclical. When the cycle turns, pricing power can fade quickly.

In other words, these names may benefit from higher oil prices, but they also carry sector-specific, geopolitical and company-level risks that deserve close attention.

Key market observations

  • Higher oil prices often support integrated majors such as Exxon and Chevron through stronger upstream margins and diversified cash flows.
  • Oilfield services stocks such as SLB and Baker Hughes may see stronger demand when producers increase drilling and completion activity.
  • Tanker operators may benefit from higher freight rates when geopolitics and supply shifts increase long-haul shipments.  
  • These stocks can be volatile, so diversification and time horizon remain important during commodity upcycles.

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References in this article to Exxon Mobil, Chevron, SLB, Baker Hughes, Woodside, tanker operators, analyst consensus ratings and price targets are included for general market commentary only and do not constitute a recommendation or offer in relation to any financial product or security. Third-party data, including consensus ratings and target prices, may change without notice and should not be relied on in isolation. Energy and shipping exposures are cyclical and can be materially affected by commodity price volatility, realised pricing, production changes, project execution, geopolitical disruptions, freight market conditions, regulatory developments and shifts in investor sentiment. Any views about potential beneficiaries of higher oil prices are subject to significant uncertainty.

GO Markets
•
March 11, 2026
Market insights
Geopolitical events
Top 5 ASX energy stocks to watch after the Iran oil shock

Oil smashed US$100 a barrel as US-Israeli strikes on Iran shut down the Strait of Hormuz, triggering the biggest single-day crude spike since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. 

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Quick facts

  • Brent Crude intraday peak: US$119.50/bbl (up ~50% in 10 days)
  • Reported vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell to <20% of average
  • Analysts estimate up to ~20% of global seaborne oil flows could be affected if disruption persists (largest since the 1956 Suez Crisis)

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Why have oil prices spiked?

Oil markets woke up on 9 March 2026 to joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian oil depots that sent Brent crude to an intraday peak of US$119.50 a barrel (its highest level since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war) before settling back near US$90.

Iran's Revolutionary Guard has threatened to target any tanker transiting the Strait of Hormuz, collapsing vessel traffic to near-zero. 

The strait carries roughly 20% of the world's daily seaborne oil supply, and analysts are describing the disruption as the largest since the Suez Crisis of 1956–57. Crude had already risen around 16% in the week before the strikes as markets priced in escalating tensions.

Middle East escalation: oil, VIX and volatility scenarios

ExxonMobil's chief economist, Tyler Goodspeed, has said the distribution of probable outcomes skews heavily toward the Strait remaining effectively closed for longer than markets currently expect. 

Meanwhile, Donald Trump has played down the need to release strategic petroleum reserves, calling any short-term price pain a small cost for global safety. The G7 is discussing a coordinated SPR release, which briefly pulled prices back toward US$110 before late-session trading moved them lower on fresh Trump commentary about a potentially “swift end” to the conflict.

Biggest single day crude oil spike since 2022 | TradingView

Market Reaction

The ASX response has been sharply split. The broader ASX 200 fell as investors priced in inflation and potential demand destruction, with materials stocks like BHP sinking close to 6%. Energy was the only sector in the green. The IMF estimates that every sustained 10% rise in oil prices adds 0.4% to global inflation and reduces global growth by 0.15%.

If oil holds above US$100 for an extended period, recession risk in major importing economies could rise materially. ASX energy investors are navigating a world where the same tailwind for producers could become a headwind for global demand.

S&P/ASX 200 vs S&P/ASX 200 Energy Index | TradingView

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Top 5 ASX energy stocks to watch

1. Woodside Energy Group (ASX: WDS)

Woodside is Australia’s largest listed oil and gas producer and is often closely watched when energy prices rise. Woodside operates Pluto LNG in the Pilbara with a 90% stake, the North West Shelf LNG project, and a growing international portfolio. Shares hit a fresh 52-week high and have risen 33% since January.

Fully franked dividends add yield support; the company recently paid an 83.4-cent-per-share final dividend. For cautious investors, Woodside is a potential entry point in the sector right now.

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2. Santos Ltd (ASX: STO)

Santos is the ASX's second-largest oil and gas producer with a market cap of nearly A$23 billion, and it offers a compelling production growth story on top of the price tailwind. 

The Barossa gas project shipped its first LNG cargo in January 2026, and production is expected to grow around 30% by 2027 as Barossa and the Pikka project in Alaska ramp up together. 

CEO Kevin Gallagher sold A$5.6 million in stock in late February to cover personal tax obligations, which some investors have flagged as a caution signal, but the growth fundamentals remain intact.

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3. Karoon Energy (ASX: KAR)

A mid-cap pure-play oil producer with 100% interests in the Bauna and Patola offshore oil fields in Brazil's Santos Basin, plus the Who Dat assets in the Gulf of Mexico, it was the biggest mover on the entire ASX 200 in recent sessions.

With a market cap near A$1.25 billion and a Price to Earnings (P/E) ratio of 7, the stock is extraordinarily sensitive to oil price movements. Karoon generated a free cash flow margin of approximately 45% against a base case of US$65 per barrel. At current prices, the cash flow profile could improve dramatically. 

A new dividend of A$0.031 per share has been declared alongside 2026 production guidance. The risk is symmetrical: if the war premium fades and oil drifts back toward the mid-US$60s, the pullback could be as sharp as the rally. 

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4. Ampol Ltd (ASX: ALD)

Ampol is Australia's largest integrated fuel company, operating the Lytton oil refinery in Brisbane alongside a national fuel retail and distribution network and Z Energy in New Zealand. 

Higher oil prices are a double-edged sword for Ampol. They improve crude inventory value and refining margins, but can compress consumer demand over time. 

A planned A$1.1 billion acquisition of EG Australia's fuel and convenience network adds a structural growth catalyst independent of the oil price. A 100%-franked trailing yield of 3.2% could also provide income support.

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5. Beach Energy (ASX: BPT)

Beach Energy has underperformed the broader ASX energy sector over the past year, weighed down by reserve replacement challenges and a difficult recent earnings period. 

However, the company beat half-year FY2026 estimates by 13.5%, and management maintained full-year production guidance of 19.7–22.0 million barrels of oil equivalent. 

Beach's asset base spans the Cooper and Eromanga Basins, the Otway Basin, the Perth Basin's Waitsia LNG export project, and New Zealand. 

A 6.1% dividend yield with a payment due in March 2026, and the stock's low beta of 0.20 means it could offer materially less volatility than peers. 

CEO Brett Woods has flagged M&A interest in East Coast gas assets and a target of 35% emissions intensity reduction by 2030. A sustained high-oil environment could arrest Beach's production decline trend.

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What to watch next

Energy markets are moving on fear and geopolitics rather than fundamentals, which means the trade can reverse as fast as it started. The key question is whether this is a brief war premium or the start of a sustained structural disruption.

A prolonged Hormuz closure could push Brent even higher and keep ASX energy stocks elevated. A swift diplomatic resolution or coordinated G7 SPR release could snap oil back downwards and reverse much of the recent move. 

Sitting over both scenarios is the question of recession: if oil holds above US$100 for six to eight weeks, markets may begin pricing in central bank responses and demand destruction, which could ultimately weigh on the Energy sector that is outperforming today.

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GO Markets
•
March 10, 2026
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