Noticias del mercado & perspectivas

As we sit here and review the last weeks of 2024, it has dawned on us that 2024 was the year of wanting everything and getting nothing. Now that might sound like a ridiculous statement considering equities across the MSCI world are averaging double digit returns for 2024. In fact in the US they are on track for two consecutive years of 20% gains or more.

So we certainly gained something, but what we have come to realise is that 2024 was a year of anticipation and more anticipation and more anticipation but nothing being delivered particularly here in Australia. So let us put forward our reasoning. 1. RBA Rates – Pricing v the reality At the start of 2024 it's hard to believe that three rate cuts were fully priced into the cash right by December this year.

The pricing versus the reality facing the RBA in 2024 was one reason that we have probably seen muted movements in currencies and bond markets. We do need to commend the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) for navigating what has been a perplexing year in 2024. As mentioned, we start the year influenced by global central banks for multiple rates, driven in particular by the U.S.

Federal Reserve. However, by mid-year, pricing shifted so dramatically it moved through 189 basis points to be factoring in not one but up to four rate increases as inflation remained in a state of suspension as sticky components slow the rate of change and has seen underlying inflation holding at 3.5% and above. Despite this the RBA held rates steady throughout the year and has now adopted a dovish tone at its December meeting.

This is key – its 2024 cautious approach is seeing a 2025 pivotal shift and the board is now making it clear that its focus of managing inflation risks is starting to switch to addressing growth concerns. Market forecasting has easing beginning at the April meeting, the range from economists is February through to May 2025. Whenever it starts, the consensus between the market and the theoretical world is the same – one cut will bring several and come December 2025 the belief is the cash rate will be as low as 3.6%. 2.

Labour Market The other factor that has kept the RBA on the sidelines has been employment. IF we were to look at employment in isolation it should be championed. Underemployment, underutilisation and unemployment as a whole is – strong.

It has completely defied expectations in 2024, with employment levels reaching record highs and participation levels for the population and women in particular also at records. It should be noted that part of the reasoning for this is robust immigration, cautious corporate behaviour toward redundancies and then the big one public sector hiring. Surges in hires for education, healthcare, and hospitality, drove public sector resilience, offsetting weakness in private sectors like manufacturing, mining, and financial services.

What could force a change here is the 2025 Federal election – a minority government or even a change of government could lead to fiscal restraint and dampen employment growth, while a surprising downturn in job data could prompt the RBA to expedite rate cuts and increase the amount of cuts as well. Something traders will need to have their fingers on. 3. Record level Wage Growth Wage growth, a key concern earlier in the tightening cycle, moderated in 2024, easing pressure on policymakers both on the fiscal and monetary side.

At one point their wages were growing at levels not seen since record began. However, it did coincide with an inflation level of a similar rate meaning real wages were flat. Looking into 2025, wages remain a concern for rate watches for the following reasons: Minimum wage has consistently followed the inflation rate with a premium suggesting the will increase exceeding 3.5%.

Industrial relations reforms over the past 2 years have embedded wage rigidity. Finally accelerating wage increases in Enterprise Bargaining Agreements are now averaging 4%. Without corresponding productivity gains, these dynamics could challenge the RBA’s assumptions, complicating the path to rate cuts. 4.

Gravity defying markets Earnings multiples of the ASX 200 and its sector have soared in 2024. It’s a reflection of the optimism bordering on exuberance about peak interest rates and an imminent easing cycle. The forward P/E ratio of 17.9x is well above the 10-year average of 16.0x and significantly above its historical average of 14.2x.

Looking into 2025 – yes, these multiples are stretched, but when put into a global context it is understandable and even defendable. For example - Australian equities trade at a 21% discount to the S&P 500’s multiples and expectation for the US market in 2025 is one of further expansion. Thus to sustain these levels robust earnings growth are needed to close the P/E gap.

A 17.0x multiple down from 17.9, would meet expectations. 5. Banks being banks? One area that we note has not just defied expectations but also logic is Australian banks.

The banking sector was the standout performer in 2024. The sector outpaced the broader market by 25%, not hard when you look at CBA which has surged 40% in the past 12 months. It’s even more remarkable when you compare it to the material sector, it has outperformed its cycle peer by 50.2%.

The surge in passive investment flows (exchange traded funds and the like) which is growing at record levels, alongside superannuation sector contributions, fuelled this robust performance considering the Big 4 and Macquarie sit inside the top 20 and make up 45% of the ASX 20. However, this dominance is likely to face challenges in 2025. Key factors to watch include China’s commodity and economic outlook, shifts in risk asset performance, and potential regulatory scrutiny of superannuation’s ties to bank equity.

Coupled with stretched bordering in snapping valuations – the risks underscore the sector’s sensitivity to macroeconomic and policy developments going forward and overdone investment. 6. Iron Ore – heavy lifting Iron ore defied the forecasts in 2024. The expected collapse never truly eventuated, buoyed by cost-curve dynamics and stronger-than-expected demand in the latter half of the year.

Prices exceeded consensus estimates by upward of US$20 a tonne and provided a tailwind for materials. But, and it is a major but, China remains a pivotal factor. Broad-based policy stimulus announcements in late 2024 lifted sentiment, but execution and clarity remain uncertain.

China is looking to stimulate itself in 2025 and that will determine whether materials can close the performance gap with commodity prices in 2025. The other big unknown for Iron Ore – Trump 2.0 and his future tariffs on Australia’s largest trading partner. Signing off 2024 was a year defined by shifting dynamics across monetary policy, sector performance, and macroeconomic trends.

As we move into 2025, investors and traders will face a complex landscape shaped by earnings growth challenges, election-related uncertainties, and potential shifts in global economic momentum and policy. Successfully navigating these factors will come from understanding the macroeconomic signals and sector-specific opportunities they will present.

There's been plenty made this year about gold's incredible rise to new record levels. A point that gold bugs love to point out. As we sit here gold is trading at around US$2700oz having reached an all-time high that was just shy of US$2900oz.

Thus the question has to be asked: where is the limit? And where too from here for the inert metal? The movements over the last five years clearly suggest there is a structural change going on inside the very definition of what gold is. 14.7% in the last six months. 29.4% year to date. 34.2% in the last 12 months A staggering 82.3% in the last five years.

That is telling a story that is different to the original fundamentals we were taught at university and then as fundamental traders. Let's look at that theory: gold usually trades closely in line with interest rates, particularly US treasuries. As an asset that doesn't offer any yield it typically becomes less attractive to investors when interest rates are higher and usually more desirable when they fall.

That still technically holds true, However what has changed is how much central banks are interfering with that fundamental. Since 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine one of the main reactions from the West was to freeze Russian central bank assets. Since that point the Russian central bank particularly has been buying gold as a form of asset store/reserve.

It has also allowed it to avoid the full force of financial sanctions placed on it. But they're not the only ones doing this; emerging market central banks have also stepped up their purchasing of gold since this sanction was put in place and are rapidly increasing their own central bank reserves. Then we look at developed markets central banks.

The likes of the US, France, Germany and Italy have gold holdings that make up to 70% of their reserves are net buyers in the current market. That suggests something else is afoot. Are they concerned about debt sustainability?

Considering the US has $35 trillion of borrowings which is approximately 124% of GDP, do central banks around the world see risk? Considering that many central banks have the bulk of their reserves in US treasuries coupled with the upcoming unconventional administration in the Oval Office this certainly puts gold’s safe haven status in another light. There are truly unknowns with the upcoming trump administration and gold is clear hedging play against potential geopolitical shocks, trade tensions, tariffs, a slowing global economy, deft defaults and even the Federal Reserve subordination risk So what is the outlook for Gold over the coming years and just how high could it go?

Consensus over the next four years is quite divided: by the end of 2024 the consensus is for gold to be at US$2650oz and then easing through 2025 to 2027 to $2475oz. However there are some that are calling for gold to reach the record reached in September this year before surging towards $2900oz the end of 2025 and holding at this level through most of 2026. And right now who could blame this prediction - Gold bugs believe the confidence in gold’s enduring appeal amid a volatile macroeconomic and geopolitical landscape is a bullish bet.

Expectations for sustained diversification and safe-haven flows do appear structural and with central banks and investors seeking to mitigate risks in an environment characterised by persistent uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and economic volatility. And it's more than just the demand side that's leading the charge. The supply side of the equation further supports our bullish outlook.

Gold mine production is inherently slow to respond to rising prices due to long lead times for exploration, development, and production ramp-up. Furthermore, major producers avoid aggressive hedging strategies, as shareholders typically prefer full exposure to gold’s upside potential. The supportive fundamental backdrop reinforces that demand from both the official sector and consumers will remain robust, while supply-side constraints provide a natural tailwind for price appreciation.

What we as traders need to be aware of is many investors actually believe they've missed the rally and are wary of buying gold at all-time highs. There are some that believe gold is due pull back even a correction as they struggle to make sense of gold in the new world. The divergence away from yields coupled with unknowns out of China and the US has made them nervous to buy this rally.

But we would argue the pullback has probably already happened. If we look at the gold chart, since the US presidential election gold has moved through quite a reasonable downside shift. Dropping from its record all time high to a low $2530oz.

That decline has clearly been cauterised and the momentum now is clearly to the upside. We can see from the chart that spot prices are now testing the September-October consolidation period. Any clean break above these levels would see it going back to testing the head and shoulders pattern at the end of October-November.

This will be the keys to gold for the rest of 2024. But whatever happens in the short term the long-term trend suggests there is more for the gold bugs to delight in.

There has been plenty of conjecture about where oil is going to go in 2025 and we would suggest that the recent climb in Brent crude oil prices above $80 per barrel reflects an intensifying mix of geopolitical uncertainty. The main 3 uncertainties driving oil have been the impact of the U.S. presidential election, the escalation of the Middle East tensions and anticipation surrounding the OPEC+ meeting on December 1. These factors are clearly shaping short-term oil price dynamics, although some uncertainties have begun to ease, namely the election and the Middle East, but they still hold sway.

Thus let’s explore revised demand and supply projections as the industry anticipates a potential surplus in 2025 and the enactment of the Trump administrations Drill. Drill. Drill policy. 1.

Middle East Tensions Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have posed a notable risk to the global oil supply particularly the conflicts involving Israel and Iran and the potential disruptions it would cause to OPEC’s 5 largest producers. However, so far, oil infrastructure in the region has largely remained intact, and oil flows are expected to continue without significant interruptions. While exchanges between regional powers remain a potential flashpoint, there is a general consensus that the two countries have stepped back from the worst.

The base case for this point is to assume stability in oil transportation routes and infrastructure. However, as we have seen during periods of unrest this year the consequences of a flare up for global oil prices can be considerable, underscoring the market's sensitivity to even minor shifts in Middle Eastern stability. 2. U.S.

Presidential Election – Drill Baby Drill The U.S. presidential election outcome has had a muted effect on oil prices – so far. This is likely due to President-elect Trump's policies regarding the energy being ‘speculative’. But there are several parts of his election platform that will directly and indirectly hit oil over the coming 4 years.

First as foremost – its platform was built on ‘turning the taps back on’ and ‘drill, drill, drill’. Under the current administration US shale gas and new oil exploration programs have come under higher levels of scrutiny and/or outright rejections. The new administration wants to reverse this and enhance the US’ output.

This is despite consensus showing these projects may return below cost-effective rates of return if oil prices remain low and the cost of production above competitors. Second, although President-Elect’s proposed tariff policies—ranging from 10-20 per cent on all imports, with higher rates on Chinese goods—could slow global trade, the net effect on the oil market is uncertain. Consensus estimates have the 10 per cent blanket tariff reducing U.S.

GDP growth by 1.4 per cent annually, potentially cutting oil demand by several hundred thousand barrels per day. If enacted, this bearish influence could counterbalance any potential bullish effects on prices. The third issue is geopolitics again – this time the possible reinstatement of the "maximum pressure" campaign on Iran that was enacted in the first Trump administration.

If the Trump administration imposes secondary sanctions on Iranian oil buyers, Iran’s exports could drop as they did during the 2018-2019 period, when sanctions sharply curtailed oil shipments. Such a development would likely tighten global supply and drive prices higher. These three issues illustrate possible impacts U.S. policy could have in 2025 and illustrate how contrasting economic and geopolitical factors could sway oil prices in unpredictable ways.

It again also explains why reactions in oil to Trump’s victory are still in a holding pattern. 3. What about OPEC? This brings us to the third part of the oil dynamic, OPEC and its upcoming Vienna convention on December 1.

The OPEC+ meeting presents another key variable, currently the consensus issue that member countries face - the risk of oversupply in 2025 and what to do about it. Despite Brent crude hovering above $70 per barrel, a price point that has normally seen production cut reactions, consensus has OPEC+ maintain its production targets for 2025, at least for the near term. We feel this is open for a significant market surprise as there is a growing minority view that OPEC+ could cut production by as much as 1.4 million barrels.

With Brent prices projected to stabilise around the low $70s, how effectively OPEC+ navigates this delicate balance between production and demand remains anyone’s guess and it's not out of the question that the bloc pulls a swift change that leads to price change shocks. December 1 is a key risk to markets. Where does this leave 2025?

According to world oil sites global supply and demand projections for 2025 suggest a surplus of approximately 1.3 million barrels a day, and that accounts for the recent adjustments to both demand and OPEC supply which basically offset each other. With this in mind and all variables remaining constant the base case for Brent is for pricing to sag through 2025 with forecasts ranging from as low as $58 a barrel to $69 a barrel However, as we well know the variables in the oil markets are vast and are currently more unknown than at any time in the past 4 years. For example: Non-OPEC supply growth underperformed in 2024, which is atypical; over the past 15 years, non-OPEC supply has generally exceeded expectations.

With Trump sworn in in late-January will the ‘Drill, Drill, Drill policy be enacted quickly and reverse this trend? This may prompt a supply war with OPEC, who may respond to market conditions by revising its output plans downward, which would tighten supply and support prices. In short its going to be complex So consensus has an oil market under pressure in 2025 with a projected surplus that could bring Brent prices into the mid-$60s range by the year’s end.

But that is clearly not a linear call and the global oil market faces an intricate array of challenges, and ongoing monitoring of these trends will be essential to refine forecasts and gauge the future direction of prices, something we will be watching closely.

The consensus for the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) is for a rise to 3.8% annually in May, the range being 3.6% to 4.0%. This would be the fourth consecutive rise in yearly inflation and would show that not only is inflation ‘sticky’ it could be considered ‘entrenched’ Monthly CPI indicator YoY% This headline will cause large initial reactions from both the FX and bond markets. Considering the hawkishness in which the governor has spoken about getting inflation back to target inside its 18-month timeframe the market will see this as another confirmation that the August meeting is more than just live but a very probable moving event.

You only have to look here at the 30-day interbank market to see long calls are being made although not at a large scale (yet). Since breaking out in late May on signs inflation has become sticky and rate rises rather than cuts are the more likely RBA response in the near term. The pair has become range bound between $0.658 and $0.672.

AUD/USD Which brings us as to why May might be the last CPI rise before it begins a long slow decline into the target range. Notable Influences on May Inflation Fuel: Prices declined significantly in May, more than offsetting April’s increase. However, they rose again during June to over 200c/l.

Food: Inflation eased modestly over the year, with restaurant meals and takeaway food prices moderating on weak demand. Rents: Returned to the average 0.7% monthly after the temporary rent assistance indexation. Clothing & Footwear: April’s unexpected price increase is expected to reverse in May amid ongoing weak retail conditions and the onset of end-of-financial-year sales.

Electricity: Victoria’s rebates expire, with significant price drops anticipated from July due to new federal and state rebates. Firstly, we need to point out that May 2023 has several factors come into play that will create an artificial upside. For example, the expiration of electricity rebates in Melbourne there are several other similar government interventions that also impact in the same way.

Then there is the persistent high inflation in sectors like insurance, which will obscure the declining progress being made in market services inflation. Now we need to highlight that the consensus view is the downward trend will resume in June, consensus forecasting (remembering that there is a lot of data that can shift this ahead of the July 31 release) for Q2 2024 headline CPI sits a 3.6% annually the RBA’s Statement of Monetary Policy (SoMP) is at 3.8%. Prices were unusually weak in May last year, due to significant drops in domestic travel (-15.5% monthly) and fuel (-6.7% monthly), which together account for approximately 7% of the CPI basket.

Large declines of this nature are not expected to repeat this year. Additionally, rebates and changes to electricity prices as energy rebates in Victoria expire, contrasting with the quarterly payments in other states this explains why consensus has CPI falling post May. On electricity pricing expectations are for prices to fall by around 20% in July as new rebates are introduced.

Consensus also anticipates a significant drop in clothing and footwear prices, reversing the April increase. The growth in average monthly spending on clothing and footwear shown in the latest credit card data was the lowest for May since the pandemic. Then you have the seasonal decline in holiday travel and accommodation prices post-school holidays.

Put this all together and it should make plain that Wednesday’s CPI monthly read could be a trap for traders. Why? Yes continued rise in the monthly CPI indicator will be unwelcome news for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

However, the RBA has emphasised that the quarterly CPI release remains the benchmark inflation figure in Australia. With that being the case – watch for snap back in any bullish moves in the currency. Because although its challenging to predict the trimmed mean CPI based on monthly CPI indicators.

Expectations are that core CPI (which can vary significantly from the quarterly trimmed) comes between 0.8% and 0.9% quarterly. This will be refined post the May CPI but all the same it is likely to be lower quarter on quarter. If we use the RBA’s latest forecasts the headline rate 1.0% on a quarterly basis (3.8% annually).

Trimmed mean CPI is sitting at 0.8% on a quarterly basis (3.8% annually). These are the keys to trading CPI going forward as the underlying detail will be key. First break out market services.

Watch meals out and takeaway, hairdressing services, insurance, sporting and cultural services, and sports participation. Then we need to see modest consumer spending growth for discretionary items and an easing in wages growth this would result in further disinflation for market services, which is paramount to getting inflation back into the target band. CPI Breakdown for May Category April Weight Annual % Change Monthly % Change Expected Annual % Change Food and non-alcoholic beverages 17% 3.8 0.4 3.1 Alcohol and tobacco 7% 6.5 0.0 6.4 Clothing and footwear 3% 2.4 -2.2 2.1 Housing 22% 4.9 0.5 5.3 Furnishings, household equipment & services 8% -0.8 0.3 -0.8 Health 6% 6.1 0.0 6.1 Transport 11% 4.2 -0.7 5.6 Communications 2% 2.0 0.5 1.7 Recreation & culture 13% -1.3 -3.3 -0.1 Education 4% 5.2 0.0 5.2 Insurance & financial services 5% 8.2 0.6 7.6 CPI Indicator - 3.6 -0.3 3.7

FX and indices traders are now on notice – the race to restart economies is upon us. We have to-date seen Riksbank and SNB move policy but with the Bank of Canada (BoC) now entering the rate cut movement – the race is now well and truly on and the interest rate differentials that come into play with currencies will ramp up. Potential for Further Cuts In a move that surprised some analysts but aligned with market expectations, the Bank of Canada (BoC) has reduced its policy rate from 5.0% to 4.75%.

It’s the first time the BoC has cut rates since March 2020. It is a clear shift in thinking and reflects a much more dovish stance than anticipated. It also sends a clear willingness to further lower rates if inflation continues to ease and confidence in reaching the 2% inflation target grows.

The impact on the CAD and Canadian bonds post the decision is stark. USD/CAD (source Refinitiv) However the post-reaction even more interesting. The spike and then sell off is a clear recognition from FX traders and fund managers that if the BoC is moving rates the Fed is not far off it either. (More on this below) A Dovish Turn So what has led to the dovish turn from the BoC and what can been extrapolated to over similar geographics from the BoC Decision?

Based on current domestic inflation data, headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to moderate, helped by factors such as easing mortgage costs. The primary reason for the rate cut was the slowing of core inflation and the reduction in broad-based inflation increases. We should point out that Europe, the UK and Canada are seeing this – Australia and the US not so much.

There is uncertainty about whether core inflation will continue to improve as favourably in the coming months – and the more hawkish BoC watcher were keen to point this out The Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) suggest that core inflation might stabilize around 2.5-3% which is above the levels most would predict for further cuts. However, history shows the BoC like most central banks never really goes ‘one and done’ it is normally coupled with two or three moves. Which again suggests CAD crosses against those economies that are not likely to see rate cuts in the coming months will benefit as the CAD falls.

South of the Board - US Economic Activity A weakening US labour market and economic activity are expected to spill over to Canada, potentially impacting Canadian economic growth. This development is currently not in the BoC’s base case, which expects stronger growth in Canada this year. BoC Governor Tiff Macklem's comment that “there is room for growth even as inflation continues to recede” suggests that officials expect a scenario of stronger growth with easing inflation in the coming months.

Any deviation from this expectation towards weaker growth would likely prompt more dovish policy actions. Recent data suggests Macklem and Co. might have to rethink this view Data Dependence and Future Rate Decisions Like all central bankers looking for their ‘get out of jail free card’ - BoC officials have consistently emphasised data dependence in their making decisions. Which is interesting as recent Canadian activity data, was showing strong job growth, yet this was somewhat downplayed in the decision – this could also feed into the reaction of the CAD in the hours post the decisions as the initial dovishness was evaluated with a hard lens.

Employment is described as growing at a slower pace than the working-age population, a trend that has persisted even pre-pandemic. If activity data continues to evolve as it has recently and core inflation picks up in May and June CPI data, the BoC may forego a rate cut in July. However, the base case scenario anticipates some slowing in activity and particularly weakening US data, which could result in updated growth forecasts in the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR) being less favourable than in April.

This alone could lead the BoC to cut rates again in July. Where does that leaves us? The BoC cut to 4.75% marks a shift towards more accommodative monetary policy amidst a complex economic landscape.

With inflation showing signs of moderation and potential headwinds from the US economy, the BoC remains vigilant and data dependent. Future rate decisions will hinge on the evolving economic conditions and inflation trends, with further cuts likely if the current trajectory of easing inflation and economic activity persists. CAD now very much sits in the dovish and weaker end of the G10 currencies.

That bias is unlikely to change again the likes of the AUD which is clearly sitting at the higher end of the G10 spectrum. So that’s Canada – what about Europe? All things being equal - the European Central Bank (ECB) is poised to start cutting interest rates for the first time in nearly five years tonight.

In a move well forecasted to the market it is expected to stimulate the eurozone economy that is now flirting with, or in some case already in recession. To put this decision into some context - the ECB had previously raised its benchmark deposit rate to a historic high of 4% to combat significant inflation caused by supply side issue out of COVID and the war in Ukraine. Consensus suggest that the scope of economic stimulus will depend almost purely on the extent of the total rate reductions rather than other programs the ECB has engaged in in the past.

For example something that might hamper the economic recovery through rate cuts in Europe is rapid wage growth leading to high inflation limiting the number of cuts expected. This is certainly impacting the thinking of traders, the EUR has a known cut cycle in front of it – yet its holding relatively well suggesting traders are not as dovish on rates as economist and the ECB is. Thus it’s not the announcement that traders and investors will focus on.

It’s the guidance from ECB president Christine Lagarde regarding future monetary policy. The stated aims currently in lowering rates is to invigorate housing markets, business investment, and consumer spending, which have been restrained by high borrowing costs. Which have significantly impacted economic activity, but with inflation pressures now easing slightly, the bank sees an opportunity to support growth.

There is also a growing amount of evidence that is suggesting the economic behaviour of Europeans is already changing from the expected cuts. The public awareness of the cuts is boosting sentiment among households and businesses and may also mean rates don’t have to move as much to stimulate. The eurozone economy showed signs of recovery in early 2023, with a GDP increase of 0.3% in the first quarter, ending a period of stagnation.

This growth was largely due to subsiding energy and food price shocks coupled with a global trade recovery. But it was also aided by the anticipated rate cuts lowering mortgage and corporate loan costs. In Germany, house prices, which have dropped by 10% following the ECB’s rate increases, have started to stabilize as mortgage rates have fallen from nearly 4% to below 3.2%.

This has led to a noticeable increase in mortgage financing demand, spurring a housing market upturn. Similarly, in the Netherlands, rising wages, housing shortages, and lower mortgage costs are expected to push house prices to new highs. And as mentioned - the eurozone's robust labour market is contributing to persistent inflation, with wage growth hitting a record pace and unemployment reaching a low of 6.4% in April.

This strength may prompt the ECB to slightly adjust its inflation and GDP growth forecasts upward – which again supports the markets view that the EUR may perform better than against a CAD for example. Thus the ECB is likely to proceed cautiously with rate cuts. Influential ECB officials suggest a gradual pace, with only a few cuts anticipated this year to maintain flexibility and ensure inflation continues to decline towards the 2% target.

The ECB's approach contrasts with previous rate cuts cycles in the zone, which were typically reactions to economic crises. This time, the cuts are being made in a context of improving economic conditions, suggesting a measured approach to avoid overheating the economy. Overall, while the initial rate cut is seen as a certainty, the future path of ECB policy will depend on ongoing economic developments and inflation trends, with the bank aiming to balance stimulating growth and controlling inflation.

A tough fundamental backdrop for EUR traders.

Never has the oil been trickier than it is right now. The influences on the price are complex, varied and time dependent. It’s even trickier when you look at it from the trade of commodities versus equities.

Here are the key things that are catching our attention with oil trading in spot, forwards and equities. Spot vs. Anticipatory Market While WTI and Brent prices are influenced by current ('spot') market conditions, they are not solely determined by them.

There is a level of anticipation of supply, and these are priced through mechanisms like storage and forward curves. This allows the market to shift supply into the future or pull it forward as required. Right now however, demand and supply are so out of traditional cycles, pull forwarded supply is being re-stocked and future supply cut to offset the current scenario.

This might explain why forward curves are inverting – these curves are crucial in regulating the anticipatory nature of oil prices. Forward curves represent the market's expectation of future prices and influence current trading behaviours. Clearly even with supply cuts.

The market expects price to fall further if the forward curves are to be believed. Investment Time Horizons Do not forget the fundamental market pricing in equities. Share prices reflect prospective multi-year earnings growth.

The future earnings of a company can drive up its stock price today because equities discount future earnings to the present. This can explain why oil espoused equities are outperforming spot prices. The spot market does not look as far ahead.

Recent Market Reaction: The sharp negative reaction to OPEC's recent production decision seems irrational in light of the projected tightening of the oil market. The analysis indicates that crude oil inventory draws could reach up to 2 million barrels per day (mb/d) during the third quarter (3Q), suggesting a tighter market. Despite this, the current market sentiment reflects a different view, possibly driven by shorter-term concerns or overreactions to OPEC's decisions.

Seasonal Considerations: Between May and August, global demand for refined products typically rises by approximately 3.2 million barrels per day (mb/d). A similar increase is expected for 2024, driven by seasonal factors. Fundamentals assume oil prices reflect the expected supply/demand balance about 2-3 months into the future.

With that in mind, and looking at demand history Brent might have found a floor in the high-$70s per barrel range and are likely to recover in the coming months. The front-month Brent future for August delivery, are above July and shows that traders are already factoring in the peak northern summer demand. But, and it’s a big But, unlike last year's northern summer tightness which significantly boosted Brent prices higher-than-expected, inventories have tempered expectations.

Thus, calls for Brent to reach $90 per barrel now appear overly ambitious. With inventories higher than previously anticipated, the short-term forecast has been adjusted downward by $1.5 to $4 per barrel for the coming quarter to $$80-$86 a barrel. Post the northern summer period futures are falling fast as those seasonal demands, turning tailwinds into headwinds.

Previous forecasts already showed a declining price trend post the summer quarter. Considering the anticipated surplus in 2025, Brent prices may struggle to maintain the $80 per barrel mark next year. And this will start to impact not just spot and futures but also equities.

The OPEC dynamic OPEC has extended its production cuts, including additional voluntary cuts, through the end of 3Q. Assuming compliance (watching Iran, Iraq and Venezuela here) OPEC production is expected to remain stable during this period. OPEC is expected to remain proactive in managing production levels.

There is a realistic chance that OPEC will limit the unwinding of production cuts well into 2025, preventing a significant price drop and regulate price extraction. Saudi Arabia is known to want a floor in the price at $85 a barrel. Then there is non-OPEC – a temporary slowdown in non-OPEC supply growth is anticipated due to the timing of new projects.

This is interesting as historically non-OPEC loves to step in and soak up cuts from OPEC but appear to be caught slightly on the hop this time around. Limited production growth is expected through September but will increase into the back half of the year and into 2025 as OPEC holds the line. This push pull between the two groups is likely to see a supply surplus and modelling suggests this will make maintaining Brent prices above $80 per barrel challenging.

A full $5 below the comfort level of OPEC. It suggests that OPEC could step in again and cut supply to drive the price higher. However this is when we would expect smaller nations in the OPEC group to splinter as the impact on them is greater than larger players.

Implications for Market Participants Short-term Traders: Should focus on the anticipated supply-demand balance in the next 2-3 months. The expected tightening in 3Q suggests potential price support or increases in the short term. Be ready for price shifts in September and rapid changes in curve the closer we get to August expiry.

Long-term Investors: Need to consider the broader outlook, including potential seasonal shifts, OPEC's future production decisions, and long-term production growth from non-OPEC countries. Look also to forward earnings estimates, possible consolidations and firms that start to pivot from pure oil exposure. This is gaining momentum at the likes of BP, Shell, Woodside and the like.

The long-term dynamic of oil is really that of structural decline as the world moves to renewables and EVs. This is years away no doubt, but the changes and future earnings impacts are starting now – so be alert. Overall, while immediate market reactions can sometimes seem disconnected from longer-term fundamentals, a nuanced understanding of both short-term and long-term factors is crucial for effective oil market analysis and trade decision-making.

The recent analysis reflects adjustments based on current market conditions and forward projections and we hope this provides a baseline for those of you looking at oil and the tricky trading conditions that are present.