Noticias del mercado & perspectivas
Anticípate a los mercados con perspectivas de expertos, noticias y análisis técnico para guiar tus decisiones de trading.
Los datos de inflación de Estados Unidos del miércoles son la pieza central de la semana, pero con el petróleo acercándose a máximos de siete meses, el sentimiento de Bitcoin (BTC) cambiando y el dólar australiano en máximos de tres años, los comerciantes tienen mucho que navegar en la próxima semana.
Datos rápidos
- La tasa de inflación de Estados Unidos (febrero) es el evento binario clave para la fijación de precios de reducción de tasas y la dirección de la renta variable.
- El crudo Brent cotiza alrededor de US$82—84/BBL, cerca de máximos de siete meses, con una prima de riesgo geopolítico de 4 a 10 dólares gracias a las tensiones entre Irán y Ormuz.
- Bitcoin cotiza por encima de los 70.000 dólares al 6 de marzo, un posible cambio de tendencia si se mantiene a lo largo de la semana.
Estados Unidos: la inflación en foco
La lectura de inflación estadounidense del mes pasado mostró que los precios subieron 2.4% interanual, aún muy por encima de la meta de 2% de la Fed.
La tasa de inflación de febrero, que vence el miércoles, será examinada en busca de señales de que la traspaso de las tarifas o el aumento de los costos de la energía están haciendo que los precios vuelvan a subir, o si la lenta bajada sigue intacta.
La reunión del FOMC de marzo del 17 al 18 de marzo ahora tiene un precio de solo 4.7% de probabilidad de un recorte. Una impresión de inflación más alta de lo esperado esta semana podría potencialmente empujar aún más las expectativas de recorte de tasas.
Una lectura más suave abre la puerta a una nueva reducción de precios y un posible alivio en los activos de riesgo.
Fechas clave
- Tasa de inflación de Estados Unidos (IPC de febrero): Miércoles 11 de marzo, 12:30 h (AEDT)
Monitorear
- La divergencia de inflación básica frente a la general como evidencia de traspaso arancelario en los precios de los bienes.
- Sensibilidad de rendimiento de tesorería a 2 y 10 años a la impresión.
- Dirección del USD y retarificación de FedWatch antes de la decisión del FOMC del 18 de marzo.
Aceite: elevado y sensible a los eventos
Actualmente, el Brent cotiza alrededor de US$83—85 por barril, con un rango de 52 semanas que abarca US$58,40 a US$85,12, lo que refleja el dramático movimiento desencadenado por el conflicto de Oriente Medio.
Analistas estiman que la prima de riesgo geopolítico ya horneada al petróleo en 4 a 10 dólares por barril, y los pronósticos promedio del Brent 2026 se han elevado a 63,85 dólares por bbl, frente a los 62,02 dólares de enero.
El Perspectiva Energética a Corto Plazo de la EIA pronostica que el Brent promediará $58/bbl en 2026, muy por debajo del precio spot actual.
La brecha entre el spot y la línea base del pronóstico podría ser un marco útil para los comerciantes esta semana: cualquier señal de desescalada de Oriente Medio podría cerrar rápidamente esa brecha.
Monitorear
- Desarrollos del Estrecho de Ormuz y cualquier señal diplomática de las conversaciones nucleares de Irán.
- Datos de inventario de petróleo semanal de EIA.
- El derribación del petróleo a las expectativas de inflación y si cambia la postura del banco central.
- Desempeño de la renta variable del sector energético en relación con el mercado en general.
Bitcoin: vigilancia del sentimiento
BTC ha estado intentando estabilizarse después de una brutal corrección del 53% en las últimas 17 semanas, alimentada por la escalada de tensiones geopolíticas y las renovadas preocupaciones arancelarias.
No obstante, ayer se vio un salto de 8% por encima de los 72,000 dólares, y el cripto “índice de miedo y codicia” saltó a 29 (miedo), arriba desde debajo de 20 (miedo extremo), donde lleva más de un mes sentado, lo que indica un posible cambio de sentimiento.
Una impresión de inflación estadounidense más fresca de lo esperado el miércoles podría proporcionar más combustible para la ruptura; una impresión caliente corre el riesgo de que BTC vuelva a estar por debajo del nivel de US$70,000 que acaba de recuperar.
Monitorear
- Inflación impresión reacción el miércoles como el macrocatalizador primario de la mudanza.
- Cualquier rotación a altcoins siguiendo la fuerza de BTC.
- Datos de entrada/salida de ETF como confirmación de participación institucional.
AUD/USD: El RBA de Hawkish se encuentra con vientos cruzados geopolíticos
El australiano cotiza cerca de máximos de más de tres años y se dirige a su cuarta ganancia mensual consecutiva, con un aumento de más del 6% en lo que va de año, lo que la convierte en la moneda del G10 de mejor desempeño en 2026.
El impulsor es una clara divergencia política. La gobernadora del RBA, Michele Bullock, señaló que la reunión de política de marzo está “viva” para un posible aumento de tasas, y advirtió que un choque en el precio del petróleo por las tensiones en Irán podría reavivar las presiones inflacionarias internas.
Los precios de mercado ahora sugieren alrededor de un 28% de posibilidades de una subida de 25 pb en la próxima reunión, mientras que la fijación de precios por completo se ajustará hasta mayo, y alrededor de un 75% de probabilidad de otro aumento a 4.35% para fin de año.
Esta lectura tensa, puesta en contra de una Fed en espera y que enfrenta una presión política dótica, crea un potencial viento de cola estructural para el australiano.
Monitorear
- Reacción del AUD/USD al dato de inflación estadounidense del miércoles.
- Probabilidad de alza de tasa del RBA reajuste de precios a lo largo de la semana.
- El mineral de hierro y los precios de las materias primas como impulsores secundarios del AUD.
- China demanda señales, dada la exposición exportadora de Australia.
Last week, Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer NIO Inc. (NYSE: NIO) released its latest delivery numbers for February. On Tuesday, it was time for the company to announce Q4 2023 and full-year financial results. Let’s take a closer look at how the company performed.
NIO achieved revenue of $2.409 billion for the last three months of 2023, which fell below Wall Street estimate of $2.558 billion. Revenue was up by 6.5% year-over-year. The company reported loss per share of -$0.396, which was more than -$0.337 loss per share expected.
Full year revenue reached $7.833 billion in 2023, up from 7.143 billion the year prior. Company overview Founded: November 2014 Headquarters: Shanghai, China Number of employees: 20,000+ (2023) Industry: Automotive Key people: William Li (CEO), Lihong Qin (President), Wei Feng (CFO) CEO commentary "In 2023, NIO set a new delivery record of 160,038 vehicles, ranking first in China’s premium BEV market with an average transaction price over RMB 300,000. At NIO Day 2023, we unveiled ET9, our smart electric executive flagship, showcasing a suite of our latest technologies, including our self-developed AD chip, full-domain 900V architecture, advanced intelligent chassis system and various other industry-leading innovations, " CEO of NIO, William Li said in a statement to shareholders. "We will soon start deliveries of 2024 NIO products equipped with the highest computing power among production vehicles and constantly enhance users' driving and digital experience.
Meanwhile, we plan to release Navigate on Pilot Plus (NOP+) for urban roads to all NT2.0 users in the second quarter. Our continuous investments in technologies, battery swapping network and user community will bolster our competitive advantages as we navigate the future competition," Li finished his statement. Stock reaction Shares were up by around 2% on Tuesday, trading at $5.44.
Stock performance 5 day: -5.28% 1 month: -9.20% 3 months: -26.31% Year-to-date: -39.64% 1 year: -38.96% NIO stock price targets Mizuho: $15 Deutsche Bank: $16 CLSA: $14 Sanford C. Bernstein: $8 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $5 Citigroup: $19.20 UBS Group: $15 Nomura: $7.50 Barclays: $8 Morgan Stanley: $12 NIO Inc. is the 1369 th largest and 4 th largest electric vehicle company in the world with a market cap of $12.38 billion. You can trade NIO Inc. (NYSE: NIO) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: NIO Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
It hasn’t been the best start to 2024 for JD.com Inc. (NASDAQ: JD) with the stock down by over 14%. On Wednesday, the Chinese e-commerce company announced the latest financial results, which sent the stock higher. Beijing based company achieved revenue of $43.111 billion vs. $42.216 billion expected.
Revenue increased by 3.6% year-over-year. Earnings per share (EPS) also topped analyst estimate of $0.661 at $0.747 per share. EPS was up by 10.18% from the same period the year before.
Full year revenue was up by 3.7% from 2022 at $152.8 billion. Full year EPS reached $3.12, up by 25.04% year-over-year. Company overview Founded: 1998 Headquarters: Beijing, China Number of employees: 450,680 (2022) Industry: E-commerce Key people: Sandy Xu (CEO) CEO commentary "We were pleased to finish 2023 on a strong note, with upticks in both revenues and profitability for the fourth quarter," Sandy Xu, CEO of JD said in a statement to investors. "JD’s proactive actions have begun to produce results as our decisive focus on user experience, price competitiveness and platform ecosystem drives deeper and more frequent user engagement and healthier user growth momentum.
With the two priorities of user experience improvement and market share expansion, we look forward to creating more value for our users, business partners and shareholders in 2024," Xu concluded his statement. Stock reaction Shares were up by over 16% during Wednesday’s session, trading at $25.07 a share – the highest level since 11/1/24. Stock performance 5 day: +8.31% 1 month: +7.18% 3 months: -7.12% Year-to-date: -14.49% 1 year: -47.41% JD.com stock price targets Barclays: $35 Citigroup: $42 Mizuho: $35 Susquehanna: $30 Benchmark: $67 UBS Group: $39 The Goldman Sachs Group: $53 Sandford C.
Bernstein: $31 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $31 Morgan Stanley: $33 Bank of America: $51 HSBC: $70 JD.com Inc. is the 506 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $39.04 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade JD.com Inc. (NASDAQ: JD) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs".
GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: JD.com Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company (NYSE: HPE) released earnings results for Q1 of fiscal 2024 after the US market closed on Thursday. The American information technology company reported revenue of $6.8 billion for the three months ending on 31/1/24 vs. $7.089 billion estimate. Revenue was down by 14% year-over-year.
Earnings per share (EPS) was reported at $0.48 vs. $0.449 per share expected. EPS decreased by 24% vs. the same period the year prior. Company overview Founded: 2015 Headquarters: Spring, Texas, United States Number of employees: 62,000 (2023) Industry: Information technology Key people: Patricia Russo (Chairwoman), Antonio Neri (President and CEO) CEO commentary "HPE exceeded our profitability expectations and drove near-record year-over-year growth in our recurring revenue in the face of market headwinds, demonstrating the relevance of our strategy," CEO of the company, Antonio Neri said in a press release. "Despite a mixed quarter, I remain very confident that our focus on customer-centric innovation and our track record of operational discipline will allow us to capitalize on the significant market opportunities in AI as well as across edge and hybrid cloud and to deliver value to our shareholders," Neri ended his statement to investors.
Stock reaction Shares were up by 2.49% at the end of Thursday’s session before the latest results were announced, trading at $15.23 a share. The stock dipped by around 2% in the after-hours trading. Stock performance 5 day: +0.76% 1 month: -1.14% 3 months: -10.20% Year-to-date: -10.57% 1 year: -2.03% Hewlett Packard stock price targets Sandford C.
Bernstein: $17 Barclays: $15 Morgan Stanley: $16 Raymond James: $20 Bank of America: $19 Wells Fargo & Company: $21 Credit Suisse Group: $20 Citigroup: $18 Deutsche Bank: $15 The Goldman Sachs Group: $15 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company is the 924 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $19.65 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company (NYSE: HPE) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs".
GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
Gold surged again in Monday’s session despite a rise in US Treasury yields and setting a new closing high. There was little fundamental news to drive the rally though a comparable surge in the Crypto markets has seemingly given the other “alternative” currency a tailwind. This is four up sessions for gold and with momentum behind it is eyeing the all-time intraday high set back in December of 2049 USD an ounce, though XAUUSD is trading at extreme overbought levels on the RSI.
The US Dollar index was modestly lower in a slow news day with no US data released. DXY trading between its 100- and 200-day SMA with a range of 103.72 and 103.96. The "highlight" was remarks from the Fed's Bostic, who pushed back somewhat on rate cut expectations, saying there was no urgency to cut rates given the US economy’s strength and when rate cuts start they would not be back to back, this saw yields rise but failed to lift USD.
The Dollar did rally against the Yen though, with rising US Treasury yields ahead of Tokyo CPI today seemingly the main driver. For Yen watchers, BoJ Governor Ueda is also due to speak later in the APAC session in Tokyo and cause some volatility in Yen crosses.
USD sold off on Monday with DXY failing to hold above 104 after finding some resistance at the 100 DAY SMA and dipping from a high of 104.20 to a low of 103.70 where the 200 Day SMA held as support. The move lower in USD came despite higher UST yields, which would normally support the USD. EURUSD was supported by the weaker USD with EURUSD rising above its 100 Day SMA at 1.0814, the 200 Day SMA at 1.0826 and briefly above the 1.0850 level.
There was little in the way of Euro data although ECB President Lagarde did speak where she stated the ECB is not there yet on inflation and noting wage pressures remain strong, supporting the EUR somewhat. JPY was softer vs the USD keeping USDJPY above the short erm support at the psychological 150 level. Higher UST yields supporting the pair seeing it test resistance at the 2024 high of 150.8.
JPY traders’ attention turning to Japanese inflation data today where the National Core CPI is expected to drop to 1.9% from the previous reading of 2.3%.
USD was notably weaker in Thursday’s session ahead of the pivotal NFP report on Friday. The US Dollar index falling for the fifth straight session and breaking below 103 to touch on the Jan 24 lows before finding some support. Risk-on sentiment, a fall in yields and weak jobless claims data being the main drivers of the Greenback decline.
JPY saw strong gains against the USD on the back of hawkish BoJ Speak from Governor Ueda and Board Member Nakagawa, also helped by a tightening in US10Y-JP10Y yield differential. USDJPY continuing its break below the psychological 150 level to hit a low of 147.59. EUR also outperformed vs. the Greenback with EURUSD breaking through the key 1.09 level and entering APAC at NY session highs at 1.0948.
Thursdays ECB policy meeting saw the central bank maintaining rates, as expected, whilst slashing its inflation forecasts which now sees 2025 headline inflation at the 2% target. This “dovish” tone saw EUR initially being the worst performer, before EURUSD benefitted from the accelerating in USD selling during the US session. Gold continued its steep rally for a seventh straight session, again setting new all-time highs in doing so.
A fall in yields, a weaker USD and a desire for safe havens pushing the precious metal above 2160 USD an ounce.