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Dolar AS: Pemilu Paruh Waktu Menimbulkan Penurunan Terbatas – ING
Para ahli strategi ING berpendapat bahwa reaksi Dolar AS terhadap pemilu paruh waktu seharusnya hanya berlangsung singkat. Mereka melihat adanya risiko penurunan jangka pendek jika Partai Demokrat memenangkan kedua kamar, terutama melalui kekhawatiran regulasi dan kekhawatiran kebuntuan politik, tetapi menegaskan bahwa narasi Federal Reserve tetap dominan. Kongres yang terpecah diprakirakan netral hingga sedikit mendukung Dolar.
Skenario pemilu paruh waktu dan risiko Dolar
"Kami tidak memprakirakan hasil pemilu paruh waktu AS hari ini akan menyebabkan pergeseran struktural dalam FX, tetapi dolar mungkin menghadapi sedikit tekanan jangka pendek jika Partai Demokrat mengamankan kedua kamar (secara luas diprakirakan) dan Senat (masih ketat)."
"Asumsi dasar kami adalah bahwa pasar sepenuhnya memprakirakan kekalahan Partai Republik di DPR, tetapi hanya sebagian memprakirakan sapu bersih Partai Demokrat. Sapu bersih biru dapat memberikan sedikit tekanan pada dolar. Kekhawatiran terhadap regulasi yang lebih ketat bisa membebani saham AI (baru-baru ini kita melihat bagaimana hal itu dapat menghantam greenback), sementara pasar bisa memprakirakan risiko yang lebih besar atas kebuntuan pengambilan keputusan terkait isu-isu seperti pendanaan pemerintah dan plafon utang."
"Namun, kami meragukan itu cukup untuk memicu pergeseran arah struktural pada dolar. Greenback terus merespons terutama terhadap cerita The Fed, yang seharusnya tidak menghadapi dampak langsung dan segera dari hasil pemilu paruh waktu. Kami memprakirakan Kongres yang terpecah (R-S, D-H) akan berdampak netral atau sedikit positif terhadap USD."
"Harapan akan perombakan dalam upaya diplomatik telah membuat Brent anjlok kembali di bawah $105/bl, sementara dolar sedikit melemah seiring dengan mata uang komoditas. Dari sisi makro, kalender hari ini mencakup lowongan kerja JOLTS AS."
(Artikel ini dibuat dengan bantuan alat Kecerdasan Buatan dan ditinjau oleh editor. Pelajari lebih lanjut.)
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