Berita & analisis pasar
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Markets are navigating a familiar mix of macro and event risk with China growth signals, US inflation updates, central-bank guidance and earnings that will help confirm whether the growth narrative is broadening or narrowing.
At a glance
- China: Q4 GDP + December activity + PBOC decision
- US: PCE inflation (date per current BEA schedule)
- Japan: BOJ decision (JPY/carry sensitivity)
- Earnings: tech, industrials, energy, materials in focus
- Gold: near record highs (yields/USD/geopolitics watch)
Geopolitics remain fluid. Any escalation could shift risk sentiment quickly and produce price action that diverges from current baselines.
China
- China Q4 GDP: Monday, 19 January at 1:00 pm (AEDT)
- Retail sales: Monday, 19 January at 1:00 pm (AEDT)
- PBOC policy decision: Monday, 19 January at 12.30 pm (AEDT)
China’s Q4 GDP and December activity data, together with the PBOC decision, will shape expectations for China's growth momentum and the durability of policy support.
Market impact
- Commodity-linked FX: AUD and NZD may react if growth expectations or the policy tone shifts.
- Equities: The Shanghai Composite, Hang Seng and ASX 200 could respond to any change in how investors view demand and stimulus traction.
- Commodities: Industrial metals and oil may move on any reassessment of China-linked demand.
US
- PCE Inflation: Friday, 23 January at 2:00 am (AEDT)
- PSI: Friday, 23 January at 2:00 am (AEDT)
- S&P Flash (PMI): Saturday, 24 January at 1:45 am (AEDT)
- Netflix: Tuesday, 20 January 2026 at 8:00 am (AEDT)
The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge and a key input for rate expectations and (by extension) Treasury yields, the USD, and growth stocks. Markets are likely to focus on whether the reading changes the inflation path that is currently priced, rather than simply matching consensus.
Market impact
- USD: May move if rate expectations shift, particularly against JPY and EUR.
- US equities: Growth and small caps, including the Nasdaq and Russell 2000, may be sensitive if the data or interpretation challenge the current rate outlook.
- Gold futures: May be influenced indirectly via moves in Treasury yields and the USD.
Japan
Key reports
- Inflation: Friday, 23 January at 10:30 am (AEDT)
- Bank of Japan (BoJ) Interest Rate Meeting: Friday, 23 January at ~2:00 pm (AEDT)
Markets will focus on what the BOJ signals about inflation, wages and the policy path. A shift in tone can move JPY quickly and flow through to broader risk via carry positioning.
Market impact:
- JPY/USD pairs and crosses: Pairs are sensitive to any guidance change and the USD/JPY has broken above 158, but the move could reverse if the BOJ strikes a more hawkish tone.
- Japan equities and global sentiment: Could react if the dynamics shift.
- Broader risk assets: May be influenced via moves in the USD and volatility conditions.
US earnings
- Netflix: Tuesday, 20 January 2026 at 8:00 am (AEDT)
- Johnson & Johnson: Wednesday, 21 January at 10:20 pm (AEDT)
- Intel Corporation: Thursday, 22 January at 8:00 am (AEDT)
A busy week of US earnings is expected with large-cap names across multiple sectors reporting. Early results and, importantly, forward guidance may help clarify whether growth is broadening or becoming more selective.
With the S&P 500 close to the psychological 7,000 level, earnings could be a catalyst for a fresh test of highs or a pullback if guidance disappoints.
Market impact
- Upside scenario: Results that exceed expectations and are supported by steady guidance could support sector and broader market sentiment.
- Downside scenario: Cautious guidance, particularly on margins and capex, could weigh on individual names and spill into broader indices if it becomes a repeated message.
- Read-through: Early reporters in each sector may influence expectations for related stocks, especially where peers have not yet provided updated guidance.
- Bottom line: This is a week where the market may trade the forward picture more than the rear-view numbers. The key is whether guidance supports the idea of broad, durable growth, or whether it points to a more selective backdrop as 2026 unfolds.
Gold
Continued strength in gold may support gold equities and gold-linked ETFs relative to the broader market but geopolitical developments and policy uncertainty may influence demand for defensive assets.
A sustained reversal in gold could be interpreted by some market participants as a sign of improved risk confidence. The driver set matters, especially whether the move is led by yields, USD strength, or a fade in event risk.


Results are in – NVIDIA reports NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) announced its second quarter results after the closing bell in the US on Wednesday. The US technology giant reported revenue that exceeded analyst expectations at $6.704 billion for the quarter vs. estimate of $6.699 billion. Earnings per share reported at $0.51 per share, narrowly beating estimate of $0.50 per share for the second quarter. ''We are navigating our supply chain transitions in a challenging macro environment and we will get through this,'' founder and CEO of NVIDIA, Jensen Huang said in a statement following the latest results. ''Accelerated computing and AI, the pioneering work of our company, are transforming industries.
Automotive is becoming a tech industry and is on track to be our next billion-dollar business. Advances in AI are driving our Data Center business while accelerating breakthroughs in fields from drug discovery to climate science to robotics.'' ''I look forward to next month’s GTC conference, where we will share new advances in RTX, as well as breakthroughs in AI and the metaverse, the next evolution of the internet. Join us,'' Huang added.
NVIDA expects revenue of around $5.9 billion for the third quarter, which is short of analyst estimate of $6.9 billion for the quarter. NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) chart Shares of NVIDIA were little changed on Wednesday, up by 0.24% at $172.12. The stock fell in the after-hours by around 3% on future outlook.
Here is how the stock has performed in the past year: 1 month -3.19% 3 months +1.46% Year-to-date -41.44% 1 year -22.47% NVIDIA price targets Truist Securities $216 Mizuho $250 Raymond James $240 Barclays $200 Deutsche Bank $175 Citigroup $285 Keybanc $230 NVIDIA Corporation is the 13 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $429.17 billion. You can trade NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Sources: NVIDIA Corporation, TradingView, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap


The Reserve Bank of Australia, (RBA) has increased the Country’s cash rate by half a percent to combat the rising inflation in its latest cash rate change. The increase was in line with most analyst’s expectations as the RBA continues to fight inflation and bring it back into the 2-3% range. The current forecast from the RBA suggests that CPI inflation will peak near 7.75% over 2022, before falling to 4% during 2023, and then settling at 3% in 2024.
A key source of concern for the RBA was and continues to be the current spending habits of Australian households. Importantly, as the cost of goods has risen due to inflation, pressure has built on household budgets and their spending habits. This has been caused by both the supply chain issues and the increased cash rate.
Furthermore, consumer confidence has fallen, and “housing prices are declining after the large increases in recent years.” This shows how interest rate hikes are impacting the lives of Australians and their spending habits. Another important factor at play is the tightening of the job market. The unemployment rate dropped in June to 3.5%, the lowest rate in 50 years, and job vacancies and job advertisements continue to be at high levels.
However, the bank does not expect to be able to hold these levels and predict the rate of unemployment will reach 4% by the end of 2024 as a result of the current slowing economic growth. In response to the announcement, the ASX200 responded positively as investors saw the announcement as bullish, shooting up 0.38% in the 30 minutes after the announcement. Conversely, the AUDUSD dropped back below $0.70 dropping to $0.6970 in the 30 minutes immediately after the announcement.
The RBA will later this week further update the market with its monetary policy statement which will provide further clarity on its decision-making and the current sentiment.


Qantas Airways Limited (QAN:ASX) is the flagship carrier of Australia and the country's largest airline by fleet size. The company has had a resurgence in 2022 and the share price has rebounded from the lows of the pandemic. The “Flying Kangaroo” as it’s known throughout the industry, said that it would report an underlying pre-tax profit of up to A$1.3bn (US$815mn) in the six months to December, doubling market estimates, as strong demand for flights offsets higher fuel costs and inflation.
The improved financial performance has come from the company transferring the increased costs via increased fairs. The share price for the airline soared to $5.83, its highest level since November 2021, on the back of the strong profit forecast. Qantas’s pre-pandemic share price was sitting at $7.35 AUD and saw its financial performance suffer with 3 consecutive years of more than A$1bn losses because of pandemic restrictions and lost A$25bn of revenue during the period.
Net debt, which spiralled to almost A$6.5bn during the pandemic, is expected to fall to between A$3.2bn and A$3.4bn by the end of the year, well below the airline’s A$3.9bn target range. Alan Joyce, Chief Executive gave a promising statement on the company’s performance advising, “It’s been a really challenging time for the national carrier, but today’s announcement shows how far we’ve come. Since August, we’ve seen a big improvement in our operational performance and an acceleration in our financial performance.” The report in profits has come too late for investors to receive a final dividend this year, with the company deciding not to reverse its decision to halt dividend payments.
However, it’s not all doom and gloom for investors, as Alan Joyce has led a A$400mn share buyback this year. Share buybacks do not put cash in the hands of investors as a dividend does. However, they do support shareholders by reducing the overall share count.
This tends to boost the share price, given that under the laws of supply and demand, less supply leads to a rise in price. If you are interested in venturing into trading stocks, FX or commodities, you can create access to one of our MetaTrader 5 trading CFD platforms with GO Markets here or call our Melbourne based office on 03 8566 7680 to discuss your trading goals with our account managers and to get started. Sources: https://www.ft.com/, https://au.finance.yahoo.com/, https://www.fool.com.au/


Oracle Corporation reported its fiscal 2022 third quarter financial results after the closing bell on Wall Street today. The US software and hardware manufacturer reported revenue of $10.513 billion vs. $10.506 billion expected. Earnings per share at $1.13 per share, falling short of analyst estimate of $1.18 per share.
The company also announced a quarterly cash dividend of $0.32 per share of outstanding common stock "In Q3, Oracle delivered over 7% constant currency revenue growth—our highest quarterly organic revenue growth rate since we began our transition to the cloud," said Oracle CEO, Safra Catz following the latest results. "This strong top line growth was coupled with a solid non-GAAP constant currency operating profit growth of 4%, but the big story is that our overall revenue growth is being driven by both our rapidly growing Cloud Infrastructure and Cloud Applications businesses. Q3 Cloud Infrastructure revenue was up 47% in constant currency. Q3 Cloud Applications growth was led by Fusion ERP, which was up 35% in constant currency and NetSuite ERP which was up 29% in constant currency.
Total Cloud revenue which includes Cloud Infrastructure and Cloud Applications is now over $11 billion a year," Catz added. Oracle Corporation (ORCL) Shares of Oracle were little changed at the end of trading on Thursday, up by 0.84% at $76.70 a share. Here is how the stock has performed in the past year – 1 Month: -6.22% 3 Month: -13.53% Year-to-date: -11.98% 1 Year: +13.87% Oracle is the 49 th largest company in the world with total market cap of $204.85 billion.
You can trade Oracle Corporation (ORCL) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. Trading Derivatives carries a high level of risk. Sources: Oracle Corporation, TradingView, MetaTrader 5, CompaniesMarketCap


Oil has continued its tumble from its March 2022 high of $131 per barrel down to $82 a barrel. The drop has been in response to weak economic figures from China and the USA which has added to the recessionary anxiety gripping the market. Furthermore, as Iran edges closer to a nuclear deal, the removal of economic sanctions on the country may be able to provide 2.5 million barrels a day to the global supply.
The drop has also coincided with a rebound in equities as the possibility that central banks may soften their aggressive interest-raising regime has entered the market. Further industry data released from the USA outlining their Crude stockpiles due later on Tuesday, may also impact the price in the short term. The recent drop has pushed the price of both Crude and WTI to 6-month lows not seen since before the Russia and Ukraine crises.
On the daily chart, both Brent and WTI are sitting on areas of support between $85-$93 and $83-$90 respectively. The price for both Brent and WTI has also dipped below the 200-day moving average indicating a medium-term bearish shift. The question remains, is this just a retracement, or a reversal of exhaustion?
Due to the prices being resting near their area of support and the RSI consolidating between 25-45, this does indicate a possible bounce. If the RSI can break above the recent consolidation/range or 45 and the general price of the commodity can bounce off its support, there may be the potential for buying opportunities. With any trade and especially those involving commodities, there are always external risks to consider that may invalidate the current trading strategy.
For instance, if inflation becomes less of an issue and central banks begin to taper their aggressiveness in fighting inflation, the price of oil may begin to slip. Therefore, this is a trade that can in which the utilisation of both technical and fundamental analysis can be done.


NIO Inc. (NIO) reported its latest delivery numbers for February on Tuesday. The Chinese electric vehicle company delivered 6,131 cars last month – an increase of 9.9% year-over-year. The deliveries in February consisted of: 1,084 ES8s – the company’s six-seater or seven-seater flagship premium smart electric SUV 3,309 ES6s – the company’s five-seater high-performance premium smart electric SUV 1,738 EC6s – the company’s five-seater premium smart electric coupe SUV NIO has delivered a total of 182,853 electric vehicles as of 28 th February, 2022.
NIO Inc. (NIO) Shares of NIO were down by 4.25% at the end of the trading day on Tuesday at $21.87 per share. Here is how the stock has performed in the past year – 1 Month: -11.96% 3 Month: -44.11% Year-to-date: -30.97% 1 Year: -49.48% NIO is the 15 th largest automaker in the world with a market cap of $34.78 billion. You can trade NIO Inc. (NIO) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and the ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
Sources: NIO Inc., CompaniesMarketCap