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Amerika Latin (LATAM) melihat volume crypto lebih dari $730 miliar pada tahun 2025, lonjakan 60% tahun-ke-tahun yang membuat wilayah tersebut bertanggung jawab atas sekitar 10% dari aktivitas kripto global.
Pada tahun 2026, pemain institusional mulai menganggap serius kawasan ini, regulasi mengkristal, dan pendorong struktural dari 2025 tidak menunjukkan tanda-tanda memudar. Tetapi wilayah ini bukan cerita tunggal, dan 2026 akan menguji apakah momentum saat ini dibangun di atas fundamental yang solid atau optimisme spekulatif.
Fakta singkat
- Pengguna crypto aktif bulanan LATAM tumbuh 18% tahun-ke-tahun (YoY), tiga kali lebih cepat daripada AS.
- Argentina mencapai 12% penetrasi pengguna aktif bulanan, menyumbang lebih dari seperempat aktivitas kripto di kawasan itu.
- Lebih dari 90% arus kripto Brasil sekarang terkait stablecoin.
- Tiga negara LATAM berada di peringkat 20 besar global: Brasil (ke-5), Venezuela (ke-18), Argentina (ke-20).
- Unduhan aplikasi kripto Peru tumbuh 50% pada tahun 2025, dengan 2,9 juta unduhan.
Dari alat kelangsungan hidup hingga infrastruktur keuangan
Amerika Latin tidak merangkul cryptocurrency karena spekulasi. Ia memeluknya karena sistem keuangan tradisional berulang kali mengecewakan orang biasa. Selama 15 tahun terakhir, inflasi tahunan rata-rata di lima ekonomi terbesar di kawasan itu mencapai 13%, dibandingkan dengan hanya 2,3% di AS selama periode yang sama.
Di Venezuela, mencapai 65.000% dalam satu tahun. Di Argentina, itu melebihi 220% pada tahun 2024. Bagi jutaan orang, menyimpan tabungan dalam mata uang lokal adalah tindakan penghancuran diri yang lambat. Stablecoin menjadi respons alami. Aset digital yang dipatok ke dolar AS menawarkan penyimpanan nilai yang andal, transferabilitas tanpa batas, dan akses tanpa rekening bank.
Tidak seperti di Barat, di mana crypto dilihat lebih sebagai instrumen spekulatif, di LATAM itu telah menjadi alat keuangan yang diperlukan. Namun, penggerak adopsi tidak sepenuhnya seragam di seluruh wilayah. Brasil dan Meksiko adalah cerita institusional, didorong oleh partisipasi pasar yang diatur dan pemain keuangan mapan.
Argentina dan Venezuela tetap menjadi permainan penyimpan nilai, dengan crypto berfungsi sebagai lindung nilai langsung terhadap keruntuhan fiat. Dan Peru dan Kolombia adalah pasar yang lebih mencari hasil, di mana crypto menawarkan pengembalian yang tidak dapat ditandingi oleh rekening tabungan tradisional.
Seberapa cepat LATAM mengadopsi crypto?
Volume crypto on-chain LATAM naik 60% tahun-ke-tahun pada tahun 2025. Wilayah ini telah mencatat hampir $1.5 triliun dalam volume kumulatif sejak pertengahan 2022, memuncak pada rekor $87.7 miliar dalam satu bulan pada Desember 2024.
Pengguna crypto aktif bulanan di seluruh LATAM juga tumbuh 18% pada tahun 2025, tiga kali lebih cepat daripada AS.
Stablecoin adalah kendaraan utama yang mendorong adopsi ini. Dari $730 miliar yang diterima pada tahun 2025, $324 miliar bergerak melalui transaksi stablecoin, lonjakan 89% tahun-ke-tahun. Di Brasil, lebih dari 90% dari semua arus kripto terkait stablecoin, dan di Argentina, stablecoin menyumbang lebih dari 60% aktivitas.
Ke depan, pasar cryptocurrency Amerika Latin diperkirakan akan mencapai $442.6 miliar pada tahun 2033, tumbuh pada tingkat tahunan gabungan 10.93% dari 2025, menurut IMARC Group.
Bagi para pedagang, kecepatan adopsi kurang penting sebagai berita utama daripada apa yang mendorongnya: wilayah 650 juta orang membangun infrastruktur keuangan paralel secara real time, dengan stablecoin sebagai fondasinya.
Pergantian kelembagaan
Untuk sebagian besar sejarah crypto LATAM, adopsi dilakukan dari bawah ke atas. Pengguna ritel yang tidak memiliki rekening bank atau kekurangan bank mendorong volume melalui bursa lokal. Gambaran itu sekarang berubah di ujung atas pasar.
Pada Februari 2026, Crypto Finance Group, bagian dari operator pertukaran global terkemuka Deutsche Börse Group, mengumumkan ekspansinya ke Amerika Latin, menargetkan bank, manajer aset, dan perantara keuangan yang mencari infrastruktur penyimpanan dan perdagangan tingkat lembaga.
Bank tradisional dan fintech mengikutinya. Nubank sekarang memberi penghargaan kepada pelanggan karena memegang USDC. Bursa B3 Brasil menyetujui XRP dan SOL ETF spot pertama di dunia, di depan AS, pada tahun 2025. Pertukaran terpusat, termasuk Mercado Bitcoin, NovaDAX, dan Binance, secara kolektif telah mendaftarkan lebih dari 200 pasangan perdagangan berdenominasi BRL baru sejak awal 2024.
Pada Maret 2025, fintech Brasil Meliuz menjadi perusahaan publik pertama di negara itu yang meluncurkan strategi akumulasi Bitcoin, sekarang memegang 320 BTC.
“Adopsi Crypto di LATAM sudah berskala global. Apa yang dibutuhkan pasar sekarang adalah tata kelola tingkat institusi, dan itulah mengapa kami ada di sini,” — Stijn Vander Straeten, CEO Crypto Finance Group
Kasus penggunaan pengiriman uang kripto
Amerika Latin menerima ratusan miliar dolar setiap tahun dari pekerja di luar negeri, menjadikan pengiriman uang salah satu kasus penggunaan kripto yang paling konkret dan terukur di wilayah ini. Layanan transfer tradisional mengenakan biaya rata-rata 6,2% per transaksi. Pada transfer US$300, itu kira-kira US $20 dalam biaya.
Infrastruktur berbasis blockchain secara lebih luas menawarkan pengurangan biaya yang dramatis. Bitcoin membawa biaya sekitar US $3,12 per US $100 yang ditransfer. Sementara alternatif yang lebih murah seperti infrastruktur XRP atau Ethereum layer-2 dapat menguranginya menjadi kurang dari US $0,01.
Bagi seorang pekerja migran yang mengirim pulang $1.500 ke Peru, beralih dari bank lama menghemat lebih dari upah mingguan rata-rata Peru dalam biaya saja.
Lingkungan peraturan kripto LATAM
Variabel yang paling menentukan apakah LATAM memenuhi potensi 2026-nya adalah regulasi crypto. Dan di sini, gambarnya benar-benar bercampur.
Brasil memimpin wilayah dengan Undang-Undang Aset Virtual, yang mencakup pemisahan aset, lisensi VASP, persyaratan AML/KYC, dan standar modal. Ini juga menerapkan Aturan Perjalanan untuk transfer VASP domestik, yang mulai berlaku pada Februari 2026. Namun, beberapa proposal yang lebih kontroversial, termasuk batas US $100.000 pada transaksi stablecoin lintas batas dan larangan transfer dompet self-custodia, tetap berada di bawah konsultasi aktif.
Undang-Undang Fintech 2018 Meksiko tetap menjadi salah satu pengakuan formal paling awal di dunia atas aset virtual. Undang-Undang Fintech 2023 Chili menetapkan lisensi untuk bursa, dompet, dan penerbit stablecoin, secara resmi mengakui aset digital sebagai 'uang digital'.
Bolivia membalikkan larangan kripto selama satu dekade pada Juni 2024 dengan mengotorisasi transaksi aset digital yang diatur. Argentina memperkenalkan pendaftaran pertukaran wajib pada tahun 2025. Dan El Salvador terus memperluas inisiatif ekonomi token meskipun menghapus status tender legal Bitcoin.
Sepuluh negara di seluruh wilayah sekarang memiliki semacam kerangka kerja kripto formal. Tetapi bagi para pedagang, divergensi peraturan tetap menjadi risiko nyata, dan mengingat Brasil menerima hampir sepertiga dari semua volume kripto LATAM, setiap pembalikan kebijakan yang signifikan di sana dapat memiliki konsekuensi yang sangat besar.
Apa yang harus diperhatikan pedagang
Momentum kelembagaan Brasil adalah tren struktural yang paling signifikan. Dengan volume on-chain $318.8 miliar pada tahun 2025, Brasil secara efektif adalah pasar LATAM.
Hasil konsultasi stablecoin Brasil dapat memiliki pengaruh besar. Pembatasan stablecoin asing dalam pembayaran domestik akan secara langsung berdampak pada kelas aset yang paling banyak diperdagangkan di pasar dominan kawasan itu.
Argentina adalah permainan volatilitas. Penetrasi pengguna aktif bulanan sebesar 12% dan 5.4 juta unduhan aplikasi crypto pada tahun 2025 menandakan keterlibatan ritel yang mendalam dan berkembang.
Kolombia adalah pasar peringatan dini yang harus diperhatikan. Depresiasi peso 5,3% pada tahun 2025 dan krisis fiskal yang semakin dalam mendorong arus masuk stablecoin dalam pola yang mencerminkan lintasan Argentina di tahun-tahun sebelumnya. Jika situasi makro Kolombia semakin memburuk, adopsi crypto dapat dipercepat.
Ada juga risiko konsentrasi pertukaran yang dimainkan. Pertukaran kripto Binance adalah pertukaran utama untuk lebih dari 50% pengguna kripto LATAM. Jika bursa menghadapi tindakan regulasi, gangguan operasional, atau guncangan kompetitif, itu dapat memiliki dampak pasar yang sangat besar.
Intinya
Pasar crypto Amerika Latin telah memasuki fase baru. Penggerak struktural yang menyebabkan permintaan crypto awal di kawasan ini belum hilang: inflasi, pengiriman uang, pengecualian keuangan, dan ketidakstabilan mata uang semuanya masih berperan.
Apa yang telah berubah adalah lapisan yang dibangun di atasnya. Infrastruktur kelembagaan, kerangka peraturan, adopsi perbendaharaan perusahaan, dan modal pertukaran global mengalir ke wilayah yang, sampai saat ini, sebagian besar mandiri.
Pertumbuhan volume Brasil mendekati -250% pada tahun 2025 dan posisinya menerima hampir sepertiga dari semua kripto LATAM adalah perkembangan pasar yang menentukan. Lintasan peraturannya, keputusan kebijakan stablecoin, dan jalur ETF akan secara efektif mengatur nada untuk wilayah tersebut pada tahun 2026.
Bagi pedagang, angka pertumbuhan utama adalah nyata, tetapi begitu juga risiko konsentrasi, ketidakpastian peraturan, dan divergensi tingkat negara yang berada di bawahnya.
Let us open with this: “It’s unlikely that the next policy rate move will be a hike. I’d say it’s unlikely,” – US Chair Jay Powell This verbatim quote puts a lid on the movements seen in bond and interbank markets that might have overacted to recent data that has been above expectations and has led some to price hikes. The let us counter that quote with this quote: “I think my expectation is that we will, over the course of this year, see inflation move back down.
That’s my forecast. But I think my confidence in that is lower than it was because of the data that we’ve seen.” – US Chair Jay Powell This ‘lack of progress’ is testing the board, it's also clear that members are starting to get spooked by signs in the labour markets that employment is tight and starting to flex to the upside. This is why we use the term ‘lid’ – the lid can come off and judging by the trade in the US500 and USD over the 2 hours from when the statement was released through to the end of Powell’s press conference, the lid is ajar.
The May meeting was supposed to be the start of the Fed's march to lower rates. At least that was what the pricing at the beginning of the year was telling us. As we've seen with the data; persistent inflation, strong employment, flat growth have clearly complicated where the Fed is now going.
And the May meeting may be when the starter gun was lowered - signalling that the federal funds rate to remain at 5.25% to 5.5% for the foreseeable future. If we look at the futures market the expected 150 basis points of rate cuts price in January, forecasted to start at the May meeting, now sits at a mere 32 basis point cut for 2024. And it's falling further.
Risk on trading has been gorging on this idea since last October and in part explains why global indices have been so strong in the face of tough conditions. With the Fed in a fix about what to do next indices are now going to have to ‘prove’ (bottom-up fundamentals) that pricing is justified, something market is now testing. On the FX front, the May Fed meeting has been taken in a different light.
The lid has been taken as ‘firmly on’ and the USD has suffered for it. DXY shows that across the pairs the USD was turfed out as those traders positioned for US Fed hikes got squeezed. We need to be vigilant as to which pairs we looked at.
Considering the EUR, GBP, CAD and Scandinavian currencies are likely to see rate cuts from their respective central banks in the coming months the current fall in the USD may be short lived here. But currencies such as the AUD and NZD facing higher rates for longer may hold on to the gains they acquired. The conclusion, however, is that rates are on hold and will be higher for longer.
The pressure this will put into risk assets is likely to be seen in the coming months and therefore a real test for the bulls that have been driving markets since October last year.
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Plenty has been made of the drive towards nickel and lithium as “future metals” as the world's “electrification” takes hold. This “electrification” has been nicknamed the “volt revolution” and when you get these kinds of technological leaps - what's appearing to be the “winner” now doesn't necessarily mean it will be the overall. That is where Nickel and Lithium need to be examined.
The demand for these two metals over the last 15 years has been staggering and for good reason the uptake of electronic vehicles (EVs), household batteries and the accelerated push to “net zero” have made these two metals – must haves. However as mentioned, will the demand hold up or will these metals experience the same market translation social media went through in the late 1990s and 2000s. Think about it what happened to market leaders Myspace and Yahoo?
Think about all those search engines that lost out to Google? Or the online marketplaces that have been cannibalised by Amazon. I raise this because although right now nickel and lithium are all the rage, there are signs they may lose out to cheaper and possibly faster technologies in the EV and battery space over the coming decades.
Nickel in particular looks to be the first one of these under pressure, and not surprising it’s from lithium itself. The light speed advancement in cheap and safe LFP batteries (lithium iron phosphate) is staggering. In fact, they are becoming so good at holding charge and efficiency that LFP batteries have now conquered 70% of the EV mass market in China further to this - they don't need nickel or cobalt like previous iterations.
Then there is the new manganese twist to the LFP batteries. “LMFP” uses manganese as a cathode which almost exponentially upscales the quality. These batteries are now approaching the energy density and range of standard high nickel batteries that are sold in all EVs across Europe in the US — but here is the kicker its two-thirds of the cost. So it would appear lithium is the winner with the LMFP battery technology - Again, I am not sure as battery technology using sulphur and potassium suggests we could see another leap forward in the range and charging time of these players and they are due to hit the market in the latter half of this decade, the catch here – they don’t use lithium in anywhere near the quantities originally forecast.
Let me dig a little further - the Department of Industry and Resources anticipates that lithium prices won't return to the peak levels seen in late 2022 until the end of 2029. Why? Throughout most of last year a surge in lithium production chased the high prices of 2022 leading to a substantial increase in global supply.
Couple that with weaker-than-expected demand for EVs in the US and Europe balanced the market and caused prices to drop significantly. (Source: Department of Industry and Resources) Supply and demand being what it is prices fell throughout 2023 resulting in reduced production, particularly among some higher-cost producers. Which brings us to the 20% increase in lithium price since the start of the year, and forecasts of further gains through to 2025 according to the same report from the Department of Industry, Resources, and Sciences. However, from 2026 onward, lithium-ion EV batteries will face the pressure from the technologies mentioned above.
The impact on lithium prices such as lithium spodumene according to the Department is prices to climb to US$1,360 per tonne by 2026 before declining to US$1,090 by 2029. The reason I want to use the department’s forecasting is it is historically conservative and directionally accurate. So, what does this all mean?
Larger lithium producers like Pilbara Minerals, Mineral Resources, and IGO are expected to remain profitable at current prices, but the outlook for marginal producers like Core Lithium and emerging players like Liontown is less certain, with questions about whether current prices are sufficient to support their projects. It also suggests that when it comes to future metals – nickel, lithium and the like, a short term view may be the better option as picking the eventual winner in the ‘volt revolution’ is far from certain.
Thin trading in FX markets continued in a holiday shortened week with G10 FX mostly flat against the USD in Wednesday’s session also looking like traders are waiting for Fridays key US PCE inflation reading. The highlights were: USDJPY pushed past its November 2023 high hitting 151.97 which is the highest level this pair has reached since 1990 and bringing intervention speculation to the fore once more, with some trading desks flagging the possibility of intervention during thin Easter markets. Comments from Finance Minister Suzuki who said he was closely watching FX moves and won't rule out any steps including decisive steps to respond to disorderly FX moves also stoking the intervention fire.
Gold surged higher with XAUUSD testing the previous all-time high and resistance level at 2195 USD an ounce after an earlier sell-off on a Reuters report that India is to drastically cut its gold imports in March. While the USD was flat, treasury yields did have a decent drop which supported the gold price. Today ahead in economic news, the highlights are US jobs and GDP data.
After last week’s blockbuster NFP figure FX traders have a key US CPI reading to look forward to later today. Rates markets have seen see-sawing expectations on when the Fed will start cutting rates and today’s CPI will be another big part of that puzzle. US CPI for March is expected to come in at a 0.3% increase, a slight cooling from Februarys 0.4% but still stubbornly holding the Year-on-Year rate at 3.4%, showing that not progress in the battle to bring down inflation is slow going and not over yet.
USD has been in a holding pattern during April with the US dollar Index range trading between the support at 104 and resistance at 105, the 104 support is certainly in play should a cooler than expected CPI reading come in, with the next support at the 200-day SMA at 103.81 Golds record run-up to all time highs has seen the precious metal take headlines during April. As an inflation hedge it should benefit from a hot CPI reading, but a cool reading would see yields and the USD drop which is also gold positive. It’s hard to predict how gold will react fundamentally to todays CPI, though from a chartist point of view XAUUSD is in serious overbought territory and a correction is overdue.