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Forex
FX Analysis – USD flat ahead of NFP, EUR rallies on PMI beats, JPY lags

Beats in US employment data ahead of today’s key Non-farm payroll figure saw the US Dollar Index eke out another gain after weakness in the APAC session reversed in the European session. DXY up for the 5 th straight day, having its longest winning streak since September and it’s best start to a year since 2005. DXY hit a high of 102.53, still being held from further gains by the resistance at 102.57, a level that could be under pressure in the US session if the NFP report mirrors the beats in the ADP figure and unemployment claims released on Thursday.

The Euro was the G10 outperformer on Thursday with a spike in Eurozone yields after beats in French, German and Spanish PMI readings ahead of today’s Eurozone CPI figures. EURUSD continued its bounce off the psychological 1.09 support level, hitting a high of 1.0972 and keeping the upward trend channel intact that has been forming since October. With EZ CPI and NFP ahead today these will be key levels to keep an eye on.

JPY was the G10 underperformer with USDJPY rallying within a whisker of the big figure at 145, Yen also showing weakness against the EUR as both US and EZ yields rallied, increasing yield differentials against their Japanese counterparts.

Lachlan Meakin
January 30, 2024
Forex
FX Analysis – GBP, EUR JPY, USD

USD saw weakness in Wednesday’s session with a risk on equity market and only a marginal move higher in yields weighing on the Greenback ahead of today’s key US CPI report. There was little in the way of major US data releases but some hawkish leaning comments late in the session from the Fed’s Williams stemmed losses. The US Dollar Index (DXY) did make another attempt to breach the 102.57 resistance, but for the 5 th time this year was again rejected, this will be a key level to watch over todays CPI report.

EUR moved higher with EURUSD heading into the APAC session at highs of around 1.0970. EUR was supported by comments from the ECB's De Guindos who warned the rapid pace of disinflation seen in 2023 is likely to slow down in 2024 and Schnabel who said it is too early to discuss rate cuts. JPY was the G10 underperformer after Japanese wage data came in much softer than expected, throwing cold water on expectations of the BOJ normalizing rates.

USDJPY following the US10Y-JP10Y rate differential higher and breaching the psychological 145 level. GBP also saw gains vs USD, taking advantage of a weaker USD and a risk-on session in equities. BoE Governor Bailey spoke in the UK session, pushing back on rate cut expectations while stressing the importance of returning inflation to target.

Ahead today the much-awaited US CPI report which will shape market expectations of the Feds next move and should get FX markets moving.

Lachlan Meakin
January 30, 2024
Shares and Indices
Constellation Brands posts mixed results

US producer and marketer of beer, wine and spirits, Constellation Brands Inc. (NYSE: STZ), announced Q3 fiscal 2024 financial results before the market opened in the US on Friday. The company reported revenue of $2.471 billion for the quarter, which fell short of $2.538 billion expected. Earnings per share topped analyst estimates at $3.19 per share vs. estimate of $3.014 per share.

Company overview Founded: 1945 Headquarters: Victor, New York, United States Number of employees: 10,700 (2023) Industry: Beverages Key people: Rob Sands (Chairman), Richard Sands (Vice Chairman), Bill Newlands (CEO), Garth Hankinson (CFO) CFO commentary "The continued strong performance of our Beer portfolio in Q3 has given us the confidence to raise our full-year operating income outlook for that Business. In addition, we now expect higher enterprise operating cash flow and free cash flow in Fiscal 2024. We remain committed to our disciplined and balanced approach to deploying that cash with a consistent focus on supporting our investment grade balance sheet, steady cash returns to shareholders through our dividend, opportunistic share repurchases, brewing capacity investments in our Beer Business, and tuck-in M&A to fill portfolio gaps," Garth Hankinson, CFO of Constellation Brands, commented on the latest results.

Stock reactions Shares of Constellation Brands were up by just over 2% after posting the latest results on Friday, trading at $247.53 a share. Stock performance 1 month: +5.58% 3 months: +4.62% Year-to-date: +2.39% 1 year: +15.54% Constellation Brands stock price targets JP Morgan: $301 Jefferies Financial Group: $292 Truist Financial: $260 Barclays: $280 HSBC: $290 Wedbush: $300 Wells Fargo: $285 Goldman Sachs: $305 Deutsche Bank: $243 Royal Bank of Canada: $295 TD Cowen: $300 Morgan Stanley: $305 Constellation Brands Inc. is the 387th largest company in the world with a market cap of $45.46 billion. You can trade Constellation Brands Inc. (NYSE: STZ) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD.

GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Excludes Fridays; please see specifications section on platform for further details.

Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Constellation Brands Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap

Klavs Valters
January 30, 2024
Forex
AUD CPI Data Looms

Since the start of 2024, the AUDUSD has reversed from the resistance area of 0.6870, a high formed in June and July 2023. The main factor leading to the AUDUSD trading lower is primarily due to the recovery in strength of the DXY. The AUDUSD currently trades along the support area and round number level of 0.67.

On Wednesday this week, the Australian CPI y/y data is expected to be released at 4.5%. While this is still above the RBA’s inflation target level of 2-3%, evidence of a sustained slowdown in inflation from the previous release of 4.9% is likely to signal some comfort to the overall rate path for the RBA. The RBA decided to keep rates on hold at 4.35% during the December meeting, a decision which saw the AUDUSD trade lower briefly.

Further downside on the AUDUSD can be expected if the CPI data is released at or lower than 4.5%, with the Ichimoku cloud and the RSI also indicating bearish sentiment for the AUDUSD. Look for the price to break through the bullish trendline and the price level of 0.6650 as a confirmation of further downside, with the next immediate support level at 0.6535 and the major support level at 0.63

JinDao Tai
January 30, 2024
Shares and Indices
AT&T shares fall after earnings

US telecommunications giant, AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T), released its latest financial results before the opening bell in Wall Street on Wednesday. The company reported revenue of $32.022 billion for Q4 2023 vs. $31.457 billion. Revenue was up by 2.2% year-over-year.

Earnings per share (EPS) fell short of analyst estimate of $0.557 per share at $0.54 per share for the quarter, down by 12.96% year-over-year. Full year revenue reached $122.4 billion, up by 1.4% vs. 2022. Company overview Founded: 1885 Headquarters: Whitacre Tower, Dallas, Texas, United States Number of employees: 160,700 (2023) Industry: Telecommunications, Technology Key people: William Kennard (Chairman), John Stankey (CEO) CEO commentary ''We accomplished exactly what we said we would in 2023, delivering sustainable growth and consistent business performance, resulting in full-year free cash flow of $16.8 billion, ahead of our raised guidance.

As we advance our lead in converged connectivity, we will continue to scale our best-in-class 5G and fiber networks to meet customers’ growing demand for seamless, ubiquitous broadband, and drive durable growth for shareholders,'' John Stankey, CEO of AT&T, said in a statement to investors. Stock reaction The stock was down by 2.97% at the end of trading day on Wednesday at $16.68 a share. Stock performance 5 day: +1.71% 1 month: +0.66% 3 months: +9.87% Year-to-date: -0.54% 1 year: -18.27% AT&T stock price targets Oppenheimer: $21 Wells Fargo & Company: $20 Royal Bank of Canada: $30 Citigroup: $18 Morgan Stanley: $19 Scotiabank: $18.50 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: 17 Deutsche Bank: $22 Barclays: $17 Moffett Nathanson: $17 HSBC: $19 TD Cowen: $23 Raymond James: $25 Cowen: $25 Credit Suisse Group: $19 AT&T Inc. is the 115th largest company in the world with a market cap of $119.33 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap.

You can trade AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to ''Trading'' then select ''Share CFDs''. GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.

Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: AT&T Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap

Klavs Valters
January 25, 2024
Shares and Indices
IBM Q4 results exceed expectations – the stock is rising in the after-hours

International Business Machines Corporation (NYSE: IBM) announced Q4 2023 financial results after the closing bell in the US on Wednesday. The American IT and consulting company reported revenue of $17.381 billion for the last quarter of 2023 (up by 4% year-over-year), narrowly beating Wall Street estimate of $17.289 billion. Earnings per share (EPS) reported at $3.87 per share vs. $3.794 per share expected.

EPS was up by 8% year-over-year. Company overview Founded: 1991 Headquarters: 1 Orchard Road, Armonk, New York, United States Number of employees: 288,300 (2022) Industry: Information technology Key people: Arvind Krishna (Chairman & CEO), Gary Cohn (Vice Chairman), James Kavanaugh (Senior Vice President & CFO) CEO and CFO commentary ''In the fourth quarter, we grew revenue in all of our segments, driven by continued adoption of our hybrid cloud and AI offerings. Client demand for AI is accelerating and our book of business for watsonx and generative AI roughly doubled from the third to the fourth quarter,'' said Arvind Krishna, CEO of IBM said in press release. "For the year, revenue growth was in line with our expectations, and we exceeded our free cash flow objective.

Based on the strength of our portfolio and demonstrated track record of innovation, for 2024 we expect revenue performance in line with our mid-single digit model and about $12 billion in free cash flow,” Krishna looked at the year ahead. James Kavanaugh, CFO of the company, also reflected on the company’s performance during the last quarter of 2023: ''We again demonstrated the fundamental strengths of our business in the fourth quarter through solid, broad-based revenue growth, continued profit margin expansion, increased productivity gains and strong cash generation.'' ''Throughout 2023, those strengths enabled us to increase our investment in R&D and talent, and complete nine acquisitions to bolster our hybrid cloud and AI capabilities, all while continuing to return value to shareholders through our dividend,'' Kavanaugh added. Stock reaction IBM shares were flat at the end of Wednesday at $173.93 as investors were awaiting the latest results.

Shares rose by around 5% in the after-hours trading. All eyes will be on the stock at the open on Thursday. Stock performance 5 day: +4.73% 1 month: +6.41% 3 months: +26.88% Year-to-date: +6.35% 1 year: +23.56% International Business Machines Corporation stock price targets Stifel Nicolaus: $183 Evercore ISI: $200 Jefferies Financial Group: $180 Societe Generale: $143 Bank of America: $170 Wedbush: $140 BMO Capital Markets: $155 Royal Bank of Canada: $179 Morgan Stanley: $130 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $145 Credit Suisse Group: $162 Citigroup: $145 Moffett Nathanson: $140 International Business Machines Corporation is the 75th largest company in the world with a market cap of $158.81 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap.

You can trade International Business Machines Corporation (NYSE: IBM) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to ''Trading'' then select ''Share CFDs''. GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.

Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: International Business Machines Corporation, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap

Klavs Valters
January 24, 2024