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US and European market attention this week is centred on the US Personal Income and Outlays report (which includes the PCE price index), late-week flash PMI releases, and a continued ramp-up in the US earnings season.
Alongside key data, geopolitical developments, including renewed discussion around Greenland and tariff threats, remain part of the broader risk backdrop.
Quick facts:
- US PCE inflation: Closely watched by policymakers as an important inflation measure (released within the Personal Income and Outlays report).
- Flash PMIs: US, Eurozone, Germany, and the UK are due late week, offering a read on growth momentum.
- US earnings: Large-cap and index-heavy companies shaping sentiment at elevated index levels.
- Geopolitical headlines: Greenland and proposed tariff measures add a layer of uncertainty to broader risk sentiment.
- Equity indices: Trading at elevated levels, which may increase sensitivity to data and earnings surprises.
United States
What to watch
US markets reopen after the Juneteenth holiday, with the US data calendar featuring the PCE price index and core PCE measures. Outcomes that differ from expectations can influence interest-rate expectations and near-term risk sentiment.
Later in the week, flash PMIs offer a more current snapshot of activity across manufacturing and services. US earnings remain a key driver of sentiment, and with indices at elevated levels, valuation and guidance narratives may be tested as results are released.
Key releases and events
- Thu 22 Jan (US): BEA GDP release — Q3 2025 (Updated Estimate)
- Thu 22 Jan (US): BEA Personal Income and Outlays (Oct & Nov 2025) — includes PCE price index and core PCE
- Fri 23 Jan (US): S&P Global flash PMIs (manufacturing and services)
- Throughout the week: US earnings season continues
How markets may respond
- Equities: Indices have been trading at elevated levels. As of 10:30am AEDT, 20 January 2026, the S&P 500 was within ~50 points of its record high.
- USD: PCE results that differ from expectations can contribute to volatility in FX and USD-linked assets, while PMI data can influence shorter-term momentum.
- Earnings: In a market trading at elevated levels, earnings results and forward guidance can generate volatility even without large headline misses. Forward guidance and margin commentary are likely to be closely watched.
UK and eurozone
What to watch
In the UK, CPI and labour market data can influence rate expectations and perceptions of growth momentum. In Germany, producer price data offers insight into pipeline inflation pressures. Flash PMIs across the Eurozone, Germany, and the UK complete the week’s calendar and may influence near-term growth assessments.
Key releases and events
Eurozone and Germany
- Thu 22 Jan: Germany PPI
- Fri 23 Jan: Eurozone flash manufacturing PMI (with services PMI)
- Fri 23 Jan: Germany flash manufacturing PMI
United Kingdom
- Wed 21 Jan: UK CPI
- Thu 22 Jan: UK labour market report
- Fri 23 Jan: UK flash manufacturing PMI (with services PMI)
How markets may respond
- DAX: The German index has been trading at elevated levels. PMI and PPI outcomes may influence cyclical sectors, notably industrials and exporters.
- FTSE 100 and GBP: UK CPI and labour market data can affect rate expectations and GBP sensitivity, while PMI outcomes may influence sector-level performance within the index.
- EUR: Euro moves may reflect PMI momentum and inflation signals, though direction can still be heavily influenced by US outcomes and global risk sentiment.
Geopolitics
Reporting has focused on renewed discussion around Greenland and associated tariff threats. Reporting also outlines tariff rates and potential escalation timelines, though details and implementation remain subject to change, and the situation is fluid.
Market reaction has been limited so far. If rhetoric escalates, markets could see intermittent volatility across equities, commodities, and FX. safe-haven moves (including in gold) are possible, though reactions can be uneven and may reverse.
US and Europe calendar summary
- Wed 21 Jan: UK CPI
- Thu 22 Jan (US) / Fri 23 Jan(AEDT):
- US GDP (Q3 2025 updated estimate)
- US Personal Income and Outlays (Oct/Nov, includes PCE)
- UK labour market report
- Fri 23 Jan: Flash PMIs (US, Eurozone, Germany, UK)
Bottom line
- The Personal Income and Outlays report (including PCE inflation measures) is one of the key US macro events this week and may influence rate expectations if outcomes differ materially from expectations.
- With equity indices trading at elevated levels, markets may be more sensitive to negative surprises and guidance downgrades than to confirmatory data.
- European releases — particularly UK CPI and the flash PMIs — remain important locally but may still trade in the context of US outcomes and broader risk sentiment.
- Geopolitical developments around Greenland and tariffs remain a secondary but persistent source of uncertainty.
Global markets chopped about in Tuesday’s session with no key data released with traders seemingly waiting on the sidelines for US CPI and a slew of bank earnings later in the week. Gold – XAUUSD XAUUSD rallied in Tuesdays APAC session testing the 2040 USD an ounce resistance level before a sharp drop as Europe opened saw drop to a low of 2026. This will be a key level to watch for the gold bulls with 2040 now establishing itself as a cap to further price increase.
AUDUSD The Aussie dollar took a hit on mixed risk sentiment, reversing modest gains made in the APAC session on a surprise beat in building approvals and above-forecast retail sales. AUDUSD losing the 0.67 handle and holding around 2024 lows. Ahead today AUDUSD traders will a CPI reading to navigate, with Year on year inflation expected to drop to 4.4% from last months reading of 4.9%.
Crude Oil – USOUSD Crude oil pared some of Mondays’ steep losses with Mid-East tensions continuing stoking supply concerns. USOUSD continuing to trade in its 2024 range of 70 support to the downside and 74 resistance to the upside. Geopolitical events currently being the main driver of crudes price action.
Ahead today with have Aussie CPI in the APAC session and BOE Governor Bailey speaking in the UK session.
USD was ultimately flat in a choppy session on Thursday after hotter-than-expected US CPI data. The US Dollar Index (DXY) hitting briefly breeching the resistance at 102.63 to hit a high of 102.76. This proved to be another false breakout of this level with DXY gradually retracing for the rest of the session to unchanged levels.
JPY outperformed, after an initial spike higher in USDJPY above 146 after the CPI reading, the retracement was more profound in this pair with it ultimately trading just above the psychological 145 level. A report did hit the newswires that said the BoJ is considering lowering its price outlook for FY2024 to the middle 2% range, though with dovish BoJ expectations being priced in it didn’t deter the Yen bulls. Risk sensitive currencies GBP and AUD had a mixed reaction.
GBPUSD making gains ahead of the UK GDP reading today. AUDUSD posting losses despite better than expected trade data that seemed to be interpreted as more evidence of a slowing Aussie economy. Gold again tested the 2040 USD an ounce resistance before a spike in the USD post CPI saw a steep decline to a low of 2013.
Early in the APAC session the Gold bulls look keen to test this level again with XAUUSD rebounding to around 2035. This will be a key level to watch for Gold traders.
USD ultimately ended lower on Monday with the US Dollar Index (DXY) first testing the resistance at 102.57 to the upside before reversing course to test the support at 102 to the downside. A risk on equity markets and some dovish developments. Data saw the NY Fed Survey show lower than expected inflation expectations.
There was also a dovish call from Bank of America regarding the Feds holdings of US Treasuries along with what was seen as dovish comments from Fed members Bostic and Logan all weighing on the Greenback. JPY bounced back against the USD after its weak start to 2024. USDJPY falling from highs of 144.92 to lows of 143.67 before finding some support.
Possible positioning before todays Tokyo CPI figure and a fall in US yields seemingly the drivers. CHF also saw decent gains against the USD and EUR after a hotter than expected December Swiss CPI print where the year-on-year inflation rate rose to 1.7% against an expected 1.5% Crude Oil prices were a big mover with USOUSD dropping almost 3% as a result of sharp price cuts by top exporter Saudi Arabia stoked demand fears. There was also a reported rise in OPEC output offsetting any supply worries generated by the ongoing tension in the Middle East.
USOUSD finding support at the 70 USD a barrel support level for now, the next level lower to watch will be the major support at 67 USD a barrel.
The recovery in strength on the DXY has led to Gold reversing strongly from the all-time high of 2088 which was reached at the end of 2023. Last week, the US employment data was released stronger than expected with the Non-Farm employment change at 216K (Forecast: 168K), however, wage inflation remained unchanged at 0.4%. This set of data is likely to push back the anticipated timeline for potential Fed rate cuts, from March to May, which could see further upside potential for the DXY.
Gold is currently trading along the 2032 price level which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. If the DXY continues to climb, further downside can be expected for Gold. Look for the price to test the bullish trendline at the 2020 price level to signal further downside, with the next key support level at 2007.
Beats in US employment data ahead of today’s key Non-farm payroll figure saw the US Dollar Index eke out another gain after weakness in the APAC session reversed in the European session. DXY up for the 5 th straight day, having its longest winning streak since September and it’s best start to a year since 2005. DXY hit a high of 102.53, still being held from further gains by the resistance at 102.57, a level that could be under pressure in the US session if the NFP report mirrors the beats in the ADP figure and unemployment claims released on Thursday.
The Euro was the G10 outperformer on Thursday with a spike in Eurozone yields after beats in French, German and Spanish PMI readings ahead of today’s Eurozone CPI figures. EURUSD continued its bounce off the psychological 1.09 support level, hitting a high of 1.0972 and keeping the upward trend channel intact that has been forming since October. With EZ CPI and NFP ahead today these will be key levels to keep an eye on.
JPY was the G10 underperformer with USDJPY rallying within a whisker of the big figure at 145, Yen also showing weakness against the EUR as both US and EZ yields rallied, increasing yield differentials against their Japanese counterparts.
USD saw weakness in Wednesday’s session with a risk on equity market and only a marginal move higher in yields weighing on the Greenback ahead of today’s key US CPI report. There was little in the way of major US data releases but some hawkish leaning comments late in the session from the Fed’s Williams stemmed losses. The US Dollar Index (DXY) did make another attempt to breach the 102.57 resistance, but for the 5 th time this year was again rejected, this will be a key level to watch over todays CPI report.
EUR moved higher with EURUSD heading into the APAC session at highs of around 1.0970. EUR was supported by comments from the ECB's De Guindos who warned the rapid pace of disinflation seen in 2023 is likely to slow down in 2024 and Schnabel who said it is too early to discuss rate cuts. JPY was the G10 underperformer after Japanese wage data came in much softer than expected, throwing cold water on expectations of the BOJ normalizing rates.
USDJPY following the US10Y-JP10Y rate differential higher and breaching the psychological 145 level. GBP also saw gains vs USD, taking advantage of a weaker USD and a risk-on session in equities. BoE Governor Bailey spoke in the UK session, pushing back on rate cut expectations while stressing the importance of returning inflation to target.
Ahead today the much-awaited US CPI report which will shape market expectations of the Feds next move and should get FX markets moving.