Berita & analisis pasar
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Data inflasi AS pada hari Rabu adalah pusat minggu ini, tetapi dengan minyak mendekati level tertinggi tujuh bulan, sentimen Bitcoin (BTC) bergeser, dan dolar Australia pada level tertinggi tiga tahun, pedagang memiliki banyak hal untuk dinavigasi di minggu mendatang.
Fakta Singkat
- Tingkat inflasi AS (Februari) adalah peristiwa biner utama untuk harga penurunan suku bunga dan arah ekuitas.
- Minyak mentah Brent diperdagangkan di sekitar US$82—84/barel, mendekati level tertinggi tujuh bulan, dengan premi risiko geopolitik $4—$10 yang dihasilkan dari ketegangan Iran/Hormuz.
- Bitcoin diperdagangkan di atas US $70.000 pada 6 Maret, perubahan tren potensial jika bertahan sepanjang minggu.
Amerika Serikat: Inflasi dalam Fokus
Pembacaan inflasi AS bulan lalu menunjukkan harga naik 2,4% tahun-ke-tahun, masih jauh di atas target Fed 2%.
Tingkat inflasi Februari, yang akan dijadwalkan pada hari Rabu, akan diteliti untuk tanda-tanda bahwa penerusan tarif atau kenaikan biaya energi mendorong harga kembali naik, atau apakah penurunan lambat masih utuh.
Pertemuan FOMC Maret pada 17-18 Maret sekarang dihargai hanya dengan kemungkinan pemotongan 4,7%. Pencetakan inflasi yang lebih tinggi dari perkiraan minggu ini berpotensi mendorong ekspektasi penurunan suku bunga lebih jauh.
Bacaan yang lebih lembut membuka pintu untuk pemotongan harga yang diperbarui dan potensi keringanan di seluruh aset berisiko.
Tanggal Utama
- Tingkat Inflasi AS (CPI Februari): Rabu 11 Maret, 00:30 pagi (AEDT)
Memantau
- Divergensi inflasi inti vs utama sebagai bukti penerusan tarif dalam harga barang.
- Sensitivitas imbal hasil kas 2 tahun dan 10 tahun terhadap cetakan.
- Arah USD dan harga ulang FedWatch menjelang keputusan FOMC 18 Maret.
Minyak: tinggi dan peka terhadap peristiwa
Brent saat ini diperdagangkan sekitar US$83—85 per barel, dengan kisaran 52 minggu yang mencakup $58,40 hingga $85,12, mencerminkan pergerakan dramatis yang dipicu oleh konflik Timur Tengah.
Analis memperkirakan premi risiko geopolitik yang sudah dibakar pada minyak sebesar US$4—$10 per barel, dan perkiraan rata-rata Brent 2026 telah dinaikkan menjadi US$63,85/barel, naik dari US$62,02 pada Januari.
Prospek Energi Jangka Pendek EIA memperkirakan Brent rata-rata $58/bbl pada tahun 2026, jauh di bawah harga spot saat ini.
Kesenjangan antara spot dan baseline perkiraan bisa menjadi kerangka yang berguna bagi para pedagang minggu ini: setiap sinyal de-eskalasi dari Timur Tengah dapat dengan cepat menutup kesenjangan itu.
Memantau
- Perkembangan Selat Hormuz dan sinyal diplomatik apa pun dari pembicaraan nuklir Iran.
- Data inventaris minyak mingguan EIA.
- Minyak berpengaruh terhadap ekspektasi inflasi dan apakah itu menggeser postur bank sentral.
- Kinerja ekuitas sektor energi relatif terhadap pasar yang lebih luas.
Bitcoin: tontonan sentimen
BTC telah berusaha untuk stabil setelah koreksi 53% yang brutal selama 17 minggu terakhir, dipicu oleh meningkatnya ketegangan geopolitik dan kekhawatiran tarif baru.
Namun, kemarin melihat lonjakan 8% kembali di atas $72,000, dan “indeks ketakutan dan keserakahan” kripto melonjak menjadi 29 (ketakutan), naik dari bawah 20 (ketakutan ekstrim), di mana telah bertahan selama lebih dari sebulan, menunjukkan potensi pergeseran sentimen.
Cetakan inflasi AS yang lebih dingin dari perkiraan pada hari Rabu dapat memberikan bahan bakar lebih lanjut untuk terobosan; hot print berisiko menarik BTC kembali di bawah level US $70.000 yang baru saja direklamasi.
Memantau
- Reaksi cetak inflasi pada hari Rabu sebagai katalis makro utama untuk langkah tersebut.
- Setiap rotasi ke altcoin mengikuti kekuatan BTC.
- Data masuk/keluar ETF sebagai konfirmasi partisipasi institusi.
AUD/USD: Hawkish RBA bertemu dengan angin geopolitik
Aussie diperdagangkan mendekati level tertinggi lebih dari tiga tahun dan menuju kenaikan bulanan keempat berturut-turut, naik lebih dari 6% tahun-hingga saat ini, menjadikannya mata uang G10 berkinerja terbaik pada tahun 2026.
Pengemudi adalah perbedaan kebijakan yang jelas. Gubernur RBA Michele Bullock mengisyaratkan pertemuan kebijakan Maret “hidup” untuk kemungkinan kenaikan suku bunga, dan memperingatkan bahwa guncangan harga minyak dari ketegangan Iran dapat memicu kembali tekanan inflasi domestik.
Harga pasar sekarang menunjukkan sekitar 28% peluang kenaikan 25 bp pada pertemuan mendatang, sementara harga penuh dalam pengetatan hingga Mei, dan sekitar peluang 75% kenaikan lagi menjadi 4,35% pada akhir tahun.
Bacaan hawkish ini, melawan Fed yang ditunda dan menghadapi tekanan politik yang sopan, menciptakan potensi angin struktural bagi Aussie.
Memantau
- Reaksi AUD/USD terhadap data inflasi AS hari Rabu.
- Harga ulang probabilitas kenaikan suku bunga RBA sepanjang minggu.
- Harga bijih besi dan komoditas sebagai pendorong AUD sekunder.
- Sinyal permintaan China, mengingat eksposur ekspor Australia.
World’s largest consumer goods company, Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE: PG), announced second quarter of fiscal year 2024 results on Tuesday. The company achieved revenue of $21.441 billion for the quarter (up by 3% year-over-year), slightly short of Wall Street estimate of $21.476 billion. Earnings per share reached $1.84 per share (up by 16% year-over-year), which was above analyst estimate of $1.697 per share.
Company overview Founded: October 31, 1837 Headquarters: Cincinnati, Ohio, United States Number of employees: 27,560 (2023) Industry: Consumer goods Key people: David S. Taylor (Executive Chairman), Jon R. Moeller (President and CEO) CEO commentary ''We delivered strong results in the second quarter, enabling us to raise our core EPS growth guidance and maintain our top-line outlook for the fiscal year,'' CEO of the company, Jon Moeller, said in a press release to investors. ''We remain committed to our integrated strategy of a focused product portfolio of daily use categories where performance drives brand choice, superiority — across product performance, packaging, brand communication, retail execution and consumer and customer value — productivity, constructive disruption and an agile and accountable organization.
The P&G team’s execution of this strategy has enabled us to build and sustain strong momentum. We have confidence this remains the right strategy to deliver balanced growth and value creation,'' Moeller added. Stock reaction The latest results had a positive impact on the stock in Tuesday’s session.
Shares were up by 4.39% at $154.35 a share – the highest since 14/9/2023. Stock performance 5 day: +2.99% 1 month: +5.71% 3 months: +2.92% Year-to-date: +5.28% 1 year: +8.78% Procter & Gamble price targets JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $162 Barclays: $160 Jefferies Financial Group: $177 DZ Bank: $155 Wells Fargo & Company: $162 Stifel Nicolaus: $151 Sanford C. Bernstein: $153 HSBC: $179 Bank of America: $175 Morgan Stanley: $174 Deutsche Bank: $173 Royal Bank of Canada: $167 Truist Financial Procter & Gamble Company is the 22nd largest company in the world with a market cap of $363.71 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap.
You can trade Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE: PG) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs". GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Procter & Gamble Company, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
American online streaming service company, Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX), released its latest financial results for Q4 of 2023 after the market closed on Tuesday. Netflix reported revenue of $8.833 billion for the quarter (up by 12.5% year-over-year) vs. $8.723 billion expected. Earnings per share reported at $2.11 per share, falling short of Wall Street estimate of $2.219 per share.
The company added 13.1 million new paid subscribers in Q4 2023 vs. 8.97 million subscribers expected – the largest Q4 subscriber growth ever. Total number of paid subscribers has now reached 260.8 million – a new record. It looks like company’s crackdown on password sharing is paying off.
Company overview Founded: 1997 Headquarters: Los Gatos, California, United States Number of employees: 12,800 (2022) Industry: Media, Entertainment Key people: Reed Hastings (executive chairman), Ted Sarandos (co-CEO), Greg Peters (co-CEO) Stock reaction Shares were up by 1.33% at the end of trading day before the latest results were announced at $492.19 a share. The stock rose by around 7% in after-hours trading as Wall Street digested company’s performance in Q4 2023. Stock performance 5 day: +2.28% 1 month: +0.20% 3 months: +18.96% Year-to-date: +1.09% 1 year: +35.28% Netflix stock price targets Benchmark: $425 UBS Group: $560 Piper Sandler: $475 KeyCorp: 545 Bank of America: $585 Oppenheimer: $600 Citigroup: $500 BMO Capital Markets: $566 The Goldman Sachs Group: $500 DZ Bank: $495 Wedbush: $525 Morgan Stanley: $550 Netflix Inc. is the 49th largest company in the world with a market cap of $215.42 billion.
You can trade Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs". GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Netflix Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) reported Q4 2023 and full year financial results before the market open in the US on Tuesday to kick off another week of earnings. US pharmaceutical and consumer goods company reported revenue of $21.395 billion for the last quarter of 2023, beating analyst estimate of $21.022 billion. Revenue grew by 7.3% vs. the same quarter in 2022.
Earnings per share (EPS) was reported at $2.29 per share vs. $2.281 per share expected. EPS was up by 11.7% year-over-year. The company achieved revenue of $85.159 billion in 2023 – up 6.5% vs. 2022.
EPS reached $5.20 per share – down by 15.3% from 2022. Company overview Founded: 1886 Headquarters: Johnson and Johnson Plaza, New Brunswick, New Jersey, United States Number of employees: 130,000 (2023) Industry: Pharmaceutical, Medical Technology Key people: Joaquin Duato (Chairman & CEO) CEO commentary "Johnson & Johnson’s full year 2023 results reflect the breadth and competitiveness of our business and our relentless focus on delivering for patients. We have entered 2024 from a position of strength, and I am confident in our ability to lead the next wave of health innovation," Joaquin Duato, CEO of Johnson & Johnson said in a statement.
Stock reaction Shares of Johnson & Johnson were down by around 1% during Tuesday’s session after the latest results were announced, trading at $160.02 a share. Stock performance 5 day: -0.38% 1 month: +2.41% 3 months: +5.74% Year-to-date: +2.02% 1 year: -4.99% Johnson & Johnson stock price targets Cantor Fitzgerald: $215 Raymond James: $175 Wells Fargo & Company: $163 UBS Group: $180 Royal Bank of Canada: $178 Morgan Stanley: $171 Barclays: $162 HSBC: $175 Atlantic Securities: $170 Credit Suisse Group: $175 Stifel Nicolaus: $175 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $180 Citigroup: $185 Guggenheim: $161 Johnson & Johnson is the 20th largest company in the world with a market cap of $384.14 billion. You can trade Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform.
To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs". GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours?
Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Johnson & Johnson, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
The Goldmans Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) released the latest financial results for the last quarter of 2023 and the full year on Tuesday. The New York based financial firm reported revenue of $11.318 billion for the quarter vs. $10.797 billion estimate. Earnings per share (EPS) reported at $5.48 per share vs. $3.617 per share expected.
Total revenue reached $46.25 billion in 2023. Full-year EPS reported at $22.87 per share. Company overview Founded: 1869 Headquarters: New York, United States Number of employees: 48,500 (2022) Industry: Financial services Key people: Lloyd Blankfein (Senior Chairman), David M.
Solomon (Chairman and CEO) CEO commentary David Solomon, CEO of Goldman Sachs, commented on the latest results: "This was a year of execution for Goldman Sachs. With everything we achieved in 2023 coupled with our clear and simplified strategy, we have a much stronger platform for 2024. Our strategic objectives underscore our relentless commitment to serve our clients with excellence, further strengthen our leading client franchise and continue to deliver for shareholders." Stock reaction Shares of Goldman Sachs were up by 0.71% at the end of trading day on Tuesday, trading at $380.45 a share.
Stock performance 5 day: -2.77% 1 month: +0.45% 3 months: +20.26% Year-to-date: -1.99% 1 year: +1.10% Goldmans Sachs stock price targets BMO Capital Markets: $357 JP Morgan: $421 UBS Group: $440 Barclays: $493 Morgan Stanley: $333 Oppenheimer: $468 JPM Securities: $440 Citigroup: $380 HSBC: $403 Credit Suisse: $410 Wells Fargo: $390 Bank of America: $425 Goldmans Sachs Group Inc. is the 109th largest company in the world with a market cap of $123.38 billion. You can trade Goldmans Sachs Group Inc. and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs".
GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Goldmans Sachs Group Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
USD was flat in Monday’s session with DXY trading in a tight range from 103.110-103. 370 amid a light economic calendar ahead of the major risk events from Tuesday onwards. DXY still capped to the upside by the 50% Fib level resistance as traders look to be waiting for rate decisions from the BoJ, BoC and ECB before taking a USD view. AUD, and NZD were the G10 underperformers.
AUDUSD trading just above 0.6600 early in the APAC session before reversing course and retracing all of Friday’s gains. NZDUSD breaking support at 0.6084 to set new 2024 lows. AUD and NZD weighed on by a broad-based selling in the Chinese market.
JPY was flat against the USD ahead of today’s BoJ policy meeting. Comments from Japanese PM Kishida requesting firms provide larger pay rises this year supporting the Yen somewhat. The BoJ isn’t expected to make any changes to current easy money policy but any mention of a timeline for rate normalisation would be Yen positive.
USDJPY still trading in a tight range, just holding the key level of 148 coming into the BoJ announcement.
The Charles Schwab Corporation (NYSE: SCHW) released Q4 and 2023 full-year earnings results before the opening bell in Wall Street on Wednesday. The US financial services company reported revenue of $4.459 billion, falling slightly short of analyst estimate of $4.494 billion. Revenue was down by 19% vs.
Q4 of 2022. Earnings per share (EPS) reported at $0.68 per share (down by 36% year-over-year) vs. $0.638 per share expected. Full year revenue reached $18.837 billion, down by 9% vs. 2022.
Full year EPS reported at $3.13, down by 20% year-over-year. Company overview Founded: 1971 Headquarters: Westlake, Texas, United States Number of employees: 35,300 (2022) Industry: Financial services Key people: Charles R. Schwab (co-chairman), Walter W.
Bettinger (co-chairman & CEO) CEO commentary Walter W. Bettinger, CEO of Charles Schwab, commented on the latest results: "Over the course of 2023, our commitment to clients was unwavering. Through an uneven environment with shifting views on the trajectory of the U.S. economy, persistent geopolitical unrest, and a temporary disruption within the regional banking sector, our "no trade-offs" value proposition continued to resonate with investors.
Clients entrusted us with $306 billion in core net new assets during the year, including over $43 billion in December alone. This ongoing success with clients helped push total client assets to a record $8.52 trillion at year-end. Additionally, we welcomed 977 thousand new-to-firm retail households as well as 315 advisors-in-transition to Schwab.
In total, we added 3.8 million new brokerage accounts to increase our total client base to 34.8 million accounts." "As we move forward with our key initiatives, we remain as confident as ever in our "Through Clients’ Eyes" strategy. Our client focus has guided our culture and operating priorities for five decades and we believe it keeps us best positioned to sustain long-term profitable growth into the future," Betting added. Stock reaction Shares of Charles Schwab were down by 1.34% at the end of trading day on Wednesday at $63.45 a share – the lowest level since 7/12/2023.
Stock performance 5 day: -3.60% 1 month: -5.47% 3 months: +22.40% Year-to-date: -7.78% 1 year: -22.03% The Charles Schwab Corporation stock price targets Citigroup: $70 Raymond James: $78 TD Cowen: $77 Goldman Sachs: $71 UBS Group: $82 JP Morgan: $85 JMP Securities: $77 Barclays: $57 Morgan Stanley: $64 Deutsche Bank: $69 Jefferies Financial Group; $62 Piper Sandler: $75 Bank of America: $53 Credit Suisse: $67.50 The Charles Schwab Corporation is the 120th largest company in the world with a market cap of $115.64 billion. You can trade The Charles Schwab Corporation (NYSE: SCHW) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to "Trading" then select "Share CFDs".
GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: The Charles Schwab Corporation, TradingView, MarketWatch, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap