Berita & analisis pasar
Tetap selangkah lebih maju di pasar dengan wawasan ahli, berita, dan analisis teknikal untuk memandu keputusan trading Anda.
Pasar minyak memiliki kebiasaan terlihat tenang tepat sebelum berhenti diselesaikan. Itulah penyiapannya sekarang.
Lalu lintas melalui Selat Hormuz telah menurun tajam karena konflik di sekitar Iran semakin intensif, dan lebih banyak kapal menjadi gelap dengan mematikan AIS, atau Sistem Identifikasi Otomatis, sinyal yang biasanya menunjukkan ke mana kapal bergerak. Hormuz bukan hanya jalur pelayaran lainnya. Ini adalah salah satu titik henti energi terpenting di dunia, jadi ketika visibilitas mulai menghilang, risiko pasokan bergerak kembali ke pusat percakapan.
Mengapa ini penting sekarang
Ini penting karena beberapa alasan.
Langkah judul adalah satu hal. Implikasi pasar adalah hal lain. Minyak bukan hanya tentang berapa banyak barel yang ada, melainkan juga tentang apakah barel itu dapat bergerak, siapa yang bersedia mengasuransikan mereka, berapa lama pembeli siap menunggu dan berapa banyak risiko ekstra yang dirasakan pedagang untuk menentukan harga.
Saat ini, tiga hal bertabrakan sekaligus: pengiriman yang terganggu, diplomasi yang rapuh dan pasar yang sudah sangat condong ke satu arah. Kombinasi itu dapat membuat Brent bergerak lebih cepat daripada yang disarankan oleh fundamental saja.
Apa yang mendorong pergerakan
1 Visibilitas pasokan memburuk
Pengemudi pertama sederhana. Pasar bisa melihat lebih sedikit, dan itu cenderung membuatnya lebih gugup.
Transit melalui Hormuz telah turun tajam, sementara porsi lalu lintas yang terus meningkat melibatkan kapal-kapal yang tidak lagi menyiarkan sinyal pelacakan standar. Dalam bahasa Inggris sederhana, lebih sedikit kapal yang bergerak secara normal melalui koridor kritis, dan lebih banyak aktivitas menjadi lebih sulit untuk dilacak. Itu tidak secara otomatis berarti pasokan akan runtuh. Tapi itu berarti ketidakpastian meningkat.
2 Penyangga penyimpanan Iran mungkin terbatas
Penggerak kedua adalah kendala ekspor dan penyimpanan Iran.
Kapasitas penyimpanan darat diperkirakan sekitar 40 juta barel, dan pasar mengamati apa yang digambarkan oleh beberapa orang sebagai garis merah 16 hari. Itulah titik di mana gangguan ekspor yang berkepanjangan dapat mulai memaksa pemotongan produksi untuk menghindari kerusakan waduk. Untuk pembaca yang lebih baru, takeaway-nya mudah. Jika minyak tidak dapat meninggalkan penyimpanan cukup lama, masalahnya mungkin berhenti tentang ekspor yang tertunda dan mulai menjadi masalah pasokan yang sebenarnya.
3 Penentuan posisi bisa memperkuat gerakan
Penggerak ketiga adalah penentuan posisi, yang hanya singkatan pasar untuk bagaimana pedagang sudah diatur sebelum langkah berikutnya terjadi.
Dalam hal ini, posisi minyak mentah spekulatif terlihat sangat sepihak. Itu penting karena ketika pasar condong terlalu jauh ke satu arah, tidak perlu banyak untuk memicu penyesuaian yang tajam. Guncangan geopolitik baru dapat memaksa pedagang untuk bergerak cepat, dan begitu itu dimulai, harga bisa berjalan lebih keras daripada yang bisa dibenarkan oleh berita yang mendasarinya saja.
Mengapa pasar peduli
Kejutan minyak jarang tetap terkendali di pasar energi.
Harga minyak mentah yang lebih tinggi dapat mulai muncul dalam pengiriman, manufaktur, dan tagihan energi rumah tangga. Itu berarti ekspektasi inflasi dapat mulai merayap lebih tinggi lagi. Bank sentral sudah berusaha mengelola keseimbangan yang sulit antara inflasi yang lengket dan pertumbuhan yang lebih lembut, sehingga minyak yang lebih tinggi dapat membuat pekerjaan itu lebih sulit.
Dan ini bukan hanya cerita tentang produsen minyak yang mendapatkan tumpangan. Maskapai penerbangan, perusahaan transportasi, dan bisnis sensitif bahan bakar lainnya dapat berada di bawah tekanan dengan cepat ketika biaya energi meningkat. Pasar ekuitas yang lebih luas mungkin juga harus memikirkan kembali prospek kebijakan jika minyak yang lebih tinggi membuat inflasi lebih kuat dari yang diharapkan.
Efek riak jauh melampaui minyak
Ada juga sudut mata uang, dan itu kurang mudah daripada yang terlihat pertama kali.
Mata uang terkait komoditas seperti dolar Australia sering mendapat dukungan ketika harga bahan baku naik. Tetapi hubungan itu tidak otomatis. Jika minyak naik karena permintaan global membaik, itu bisa membantu. Jika naik karena risiko geopolitik melonjak, pasar dapat beralih ke mode risk-off sebagai gantinya, dan itu dapat membebani dolar Australia bahkan ketika harga komoditas naik.
Itulah yang membuat gerakan semacam ini lebih menarik daripada yang terlihat pada pandangan pertama. Reli minyak yang sama dapat mendukung satu bagian pasar sambil memberi tekanan pada yang lain.
Aset dan nama dalam bingkai
Minyak mentah Brent tetap menjadi bacaan paling jelas tentang risiko pasokan yang luas. Jika pedagang menginginkan ekspresi paling bersih dari berita utama, ini biasanya tempat mereka melihat terlebih dahulu.
- ExxonMobil adalah salah satu nama yang lebih jelas dalam bingkai. Harga minyak yang lebih tinggi dapat mendukung realisasi harga jual dan momentum pendapatan jangka pendek, meskipun tidak pernah sesederhana minyak naik, stok naik. Biaya, bauran produksi, dan sentimen yang lebih luas masih penting.
- BerikutnyaEnergi menambahkan lapisan lain. Cerita ini bukan hanya tentang bahan bakar fosil. Ketika keamanan energi menjadi perhatian yang lebih besar, kasus ketahanan listrik domestik, investasi grid dan pembangkit alternatif dapat menguat juga.
- AUD/USD adalah pasar lain yang layak diperhatikan. Australia terkait erat dengan siklus komoditas, sehingga harga bahan baku yang lebih kuat terkadang dapat mendukung mata uang. Tetapi jika pasar bereaksi lebih terhadap ketakutan daripada pertumbuhan, angin belakang yang biasa itu mungkin tidak bertahan.
Untuk pembaca yang lebih baru, poin kuncinya adalah bahwa pergerakan minyak tidak menyebar melalui pasar dalam garis yang rapi dan dapat diprediksi. Mereka bergelombang ke luar secara tidak merata, membantu beberapa aset, menekan yang lain dan terkadang melakukan keduanya pada saat yang bersamaan.
Apa yang bisa salah
Narasi yang kuat tidak sama dengan perdagangan satu arah.
Gencatan senjata dapat menstabilkan arus pengiriman lebih cepat dari yang diharapkan. OPEC+dapat mengimbangi beberapa keketatan dengan mengangkat produksi. Data permintaan dari China bisa mengecewakan, mengalihkan fokus kembali ke konsumsi yang lemah daripada pasokan yang terbatas. Dan jika premi geopolitik memudar, minyak bisa mundur lebih cepat daripada yang ditunjukkan oleh suasana saat ini.
Untuk pembaca yang lebih baru, takeaway-nya sederhana. Reli minyak bisa menjadi nyata tanpa permanen. Sebuah langkah dapat dibenarkan dalam jangka pendek oleh risiko gangguan, kemudian berbalik dengan cepat jika risiko tersebut mereda atau jika permintaan melunak.
Pasar tidak lagi menetapkan harga minyak secara terpisah. Ini adalah visibilitas harga, keamanan transportasi dan risiko gangguan pasokan tumpah ke inflasi, mata uang, dan sentimen risiko yang lebih luas.
Itulah mengapa Hormuz penting, bahkan bagi pembaca yang tidak pernah memperdagangkan satu barel minyak mentah sendiri.
Bank of England Headline February inflation in the UK came at a hotter than expected 10.4%, well above the consensus of a drop to 9.9% and indicating that Januarys dip to 10.1% seems to have been temporary. Unwelcome news for the BoE who have a rate meeting today, before this figure the decision seemed to be on a knife edge, with the markets pricing in a 50-50 chance of a 25bp hike or a hold, those odds have since blown out to make a hike pretty much a done deal with the market pricing in a 90% chance that the BoE will keep the tightening process going. The big change in hike expectations can be seen below, in the Pre CPI vs the Post CPI figures This unsurprisingly saw the GBPUSD rally sharply as the markets repriced the BoE’s actions today, interestingly we can see that the reaction, though a decent move was dwarfed by the volatility seen during and post the FOMC rate decision in this pair.
The UK being a world financial hub means the GBP is especially risk sensitive to financial conditions, whether that is global interest rates, banking stress or threats of global growth slowdowns, the actions of the BoE, while still important have taken a seat to these more macro drivers. With all this in mind the probable 25bp rate hike today will more than likely have a muted first effect on the GBP, the accompanying statement and the voting pattern of the MPC member will be what GBP traders are looking at to get some direction for the session. With the shock of the inflation beat fresh in their minds it’s hard to see the BoE being too dovish but against the current uncertainty in the financial markets I don’t think we’ll see any sustained rally of the GBP after the fact unless there is a real hawkish surprise from the BoE members.
Swiss National Bank Up until recently the SNB meetings have been almost as boring as the Bank of Japan meetings, this has all changed as BoJ the meetings have thrown up surprises and todays SNB against the backdrop of the collapse of Credit Suisse could actually be interesting. The markets are pricing in a 50bp hike from the SNB, despite Swiss banking woes it would be a big surprise if they didn’t go through with this, inflation is rising in Switzerland (jumping unexpectedly to 3.4% last month) and they are a long way behind the curve in respects to other Central Banks with their official rate only sitting at 1%, far behind their peers in Europe and the US. Again the interesting part will be the statement and press conference, where the focus will likely remain on interest rate policy and the banking sector.
CHF may strengthen on the decision but with major support on the USDCHF around the 0.9094 level, any downside on this pair should be limited. The SNB decision is due out at 08:30 GMT with the BoE following at 12:00 GMT
The NZDUSD has been on a decline since the start of February 2023, with the price reversing strongly from the high of 0.6540 ending the previous week bouncing off the 200-day moving average and previous swing low price level of 0.6190. This week, we have the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) due to release their interest rate decision. Current annual inflation in New Zealand stands at a three-decade high of 7.2%, while the quarter-on-quarter data released in January signaled slightly higher than expected CPI growth at 1.4% (Forecast: 1.3%).
This has led the market to anticipate that the RBNZ is likely to hike rates by 50bps, taking rates from 4.25% to 4.75%. If the RBNZ does increase rates by 50bps as expected, this is likely to further strengthen the New Zealand dollar, especially as the NZDUSD had found strong support along the 200-day moving average on Friday. In addition to the interest rate decision possibly driving prices higher, price action on the NZDUSD has also formed a Bullish Regular Divergence with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at the support level, indicating a further likelihood for the NZDUSD to stage a reversal, to trade higher.
However, for a sustained move to the upside, the price of the NZDUSD would have to break above the near-term resistance area at 0.6270, which also aligns with the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level. Look for the NZDUSD to rise toward the key resistance and round number level of 0.64, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
After 10 hikes on the trot and what will no doubt be a relief for mortgage holders the RBA held the official cash rate at 3.60%. The rate decision was fully priced in by the futures markets, so no great surprise on the actual decision, it’s the accompanying statement where investors look for clues as to future RBA actions that will set the short to mid-term tone of the FX and Equity markets. The statement did leave the door open for further rate hikes with the line “further tightening of monetary policy may well be needed to ensure that inflation returns to target” indicating to the market to not take for granted that Australian rates have peaked just yet.
Though there was a subtle word change from the previous March statement which traders saw as a dovish sign. Tha March statement said “ will be needed” which has change to “ may well be needed” A small difference, but a huge clue in the arcane skill of deciphering Central Bank communications. The AUDUSD behaved fairly predictably, a knee jerk drop on the actual rate announcement, followed by a step retrace as the machines and humans took few seconds to decide whether the statement was hawkish or not, before deciding on the “not” and seeing the AUDUSD resume its downtrend.
The ASX 200 index saw a mirror reaction to the AUD with the difference being the initial spike was not retraced, showing that equity traders were happy with the RBA taking their foot off the accelerator, even if it just temporary. One thing to remember that the AUD normally trades as a proxy for global growth risk, ebbing and flowing on risk sentiment any moves from this decision could be short lived as other market forces take over.
World’s largest sporting goods company, Nike Inc. (NYSE:NKE) reported fiscal 2023 financial results for its third quarter after the closing bell in the US on Tuesday. Nike beat both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the quarter ending February 28, 2023. Revenue reported at $12.4 billion (up by 14% year-over-year) vs. $11.482 billion estimate.
EPS reported at $0.79 per share (down by 9% year-over-year) vs. $0.555 per share expected. CEO commentary "NIKE’s strong results in the third quarter offer continued proof of the success of our Consumer Direct Acceleration strategy," said John Donahoe, CEO of the company said in a press release. "Fueled by compelling product innovation, deep relationships with consumers and a digital advantage that fuels brand momentum, our proven playbook allows us to navigate volatility as we create value and drive long-term growth," Donahoe concluded his statement to investors. Stock reaction The stock rose by 3.64% on Tuesday, trading at $125.50 a share.
Share price fell by around 2% in the after-hours. Stock performance 1 month: +3.72% 3 months: +21.70% Year-to-date: +7.35% 1 year: -5.62% Nike stock price targets Telsey Advisory Group: $138 Redburn Partners: $100 Barclays: $110 Morgan Stanley: $140 Oppenheimer: $150 RBC Capital: $145 Wells Fargo: $146 JP Morgan: $156 HSBC: $125 Nike is the 49 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $194.76 billion. You can trade Nike Inc. (NYSE:NKE) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
Sources: Nike, TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
As the banking crisis subside slightly with the news of First Citizens bank’s acquisition of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), the DXY has reversed from the 103.50 price area, resuming the previous downtrend and currently trades at 102.60. This move lower on the DXY has resulted in the major currencies reversing on the lost ground to gain briefly against the US dollar. The short-term directional bias of the NZDUSD is likely to be driven primarily by the volatility of the DXY as there are no major news events on the near-term horizon for the NZD, with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cash rate decision due on 5th April.
The interest rate in New Zealand is currently at 4.75% and the RBNZ had previously indicated that it expects rates to peak at 5.50%, highlighting the possibility for further rate increases at this upcoming meeting. Recent price action on the NZDUSD has seen price trading higher to form higher lows while the MACD oscillator creates progressive lower lows. This movement of price and the indicator has developed into a hidden bullish divergence, which signals further upside potential for the NZDUSD.
Furthermore, the price has also broken through the 0.62 round number level, turning the resistance to a support level. The immediate target level for this bullish divergence could be at the next round number resistance level of 0.63, which was the previous swing high, and beyond that the 0.64 resistance area, which was last tested in February 2023.
Lululemon athletica inc. (NASDAQ: LULU) announced Q4 and full-year earnings results on Wednesday. World’s second largest sporting goods company reported revenue of $2.772 billion for the quarter (up by 30% year-over-year or 33% on a constant currency basis) vs. $2.701 billion estimate. Earnings per share (EPS) also topped analyst expectations at $4.40 per share (up by 30.5% year-over-year) vs. $4.259 per share expected.
Full-year revenue reported at $8.1 billion (up by 30% vs. 2021), EPS at $10.07 per share. Lululemon expects revenue of $1.890 billion to $1.930 billion for Q1. EPS expected to be between $1.93 to $2.00 for the quarter.
CEO and CFO commentary "In the fourth quarter and full year 2022, we delivered strong results across the business driven by our innovative products, powerful guest experiences, and strategic market expansion. Our continued high level of performance is a reflection of the hard work and agility of our incredible teams and the deep connections they create with our guests and communities around the world. As we enter 2023, we look forward to another year of strong momentum across the globe and delivering on our Power of Three ×2 growth plan," Calvin McDonald, CEO of the company said in a press release.
Meghan Frank, CFO of Lululemon also commented on the latest results and delivering for its shareholders: "We are pleased with our performance in the fourth quarter, which remained balanced across product category, channel, and regions. Our ability to exceed our annual revenue target in a dynamic operating environment is a testament to the enduring strength of the lululemon brand. Looking ahead, we remain optimistic regarding our ability to deliver sustained growth and long-term value for all our stakeholders." The latest results had a positive impact on the stock price.
Shares were up by +12.72% at the end the trading session on Wednesday at $360.87 a share. Stock performance 1 month: +16.66% 3 months: +16.86% Year-to-date: +12.69% 1 year: -4.21% Lululemon price targets TD Cowen: $500 Baird: $425 B of A Securities: $410 BMO Capital: $340 Credit Suisse: $420 Stifel: $460 Wells Fargo: $425 Guggenheim: $440 Citigroup: $440 Telsey Advisory Group: $425 Keybanc: $390 Barclays: $368 JP Morgan: $430 Lululemon athletica inc. is the 358 th largest company in the world with a market cap of $46.03 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Lululemon athletica inc. (NASDAQ: LULU) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX, ASX, LSE and DE with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
Sources: Lululemon athletica inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MetaTrader 5, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap