Berita & analisis pasar
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Data inflasi AS pada hari Rabu adalah pusat minggu ini, tetapi dengan minyak mendekati level tertinggi tujuh bulan, sentimen Bitcoin (BTC) bergeser, dan dolar Australia pada level tertinggi tiga tahun, pedagang memiliki banyak hal untuk dinavigasi di minggu mendatang.
Fakta Singkat
- Tingkat inflasi AS (Februari) adalah peristiwa biner utama untuk harga penurunan suku bunga dan arah ekuitas.
- Minyak mentah Brent diperdagangkan di sekitar US$82—84/barel, mendekati level tertinggi tujuh bulan, dengan premi risiko geopolitik $4—$10 yang dihasilkan dari ketegangan Iran/Hormuz.
- Bitcoin diperdagangkan di atas US $70.000 pada 6 Maret, perubahan tren potensial jika bertahan sepanjang minggu.
Amerika Serikat: Inflasi dalam Fokus
Pembacaan inflasi AS bulan lalu menunjukkan harga naik 2,4% tahun-ke-tahun, masih jauh di atas target Fed 2%.
Tingkat inflasi Februari, yang akan dijadwalkan pada hari Rabu, akan diteliti untuk tanda-tanda bahwa penerusan tarif atau kenaikan biaya energi mendorong harga kembali naik, atau apakah penurunan lambat masih utuh.
Pertemuan FOMC Maret pada 17-18 Maret sekarang dihargai hanya dengan kemungkinan pemotongan 4,7%. Pencetakan inflasi yang lebih tinggi dari perkiraan minggu ini berpotensi mendorong ekspektasi penurunan suku bunga lebih jauh.
Bacaan yang lebih lembut membuka pintu untuk pemotongan harga yang diperbarui dan potensi keringanan di seluruh aset berisiko.
Tanggal Utama
- Tingkat Inflasi AS (CPI Februari): Rabu 11 Maret, 00:30 pagi (AEDT)
Memantau
- Divergensi inflasi inti vs utama sebagai bukti penerusan tarif dalam harga barang.
- Sensitivitas imbal hasil kas 2 tahun dan 10 tahun terhadap cetakan.
- Arah USD dan harga ulang FedWatch menjelang keputusan FOMC 18 Maret.
Minyak: tinggi dan peka terhadap peristiwa
Brent saat ini diperdagangkan sekitar US$83—85 per barel, dengan kisaran 52 minggu yang mencakup $58,40 hingga $85,12, mencerminkan pergerakan dramatis yang dipicu oleh konflik Timur Tengah.
Analis memperkirakan premi risiko geopolitik yang sudah dibakar pada minyak sebesar US$4—$10 per barel, dan perkiraan rata-rata Brent 2026 telah dinaikkan menjadi US$63,85/barel, naik dari US$62,02 pada Januari.
Prospek Energi Jangka Pendek EIA memperkirakan Brent rata-rata $58/bbl pada tahun 2026, jauh di bawah harga spot saat ini.
Kesenjangan antara spot dan baseline perkiraan bisa menjadi kerangka yang berguna bagi para pedagang minggu ini: setiap sinyal de-eskalasi dari Timur Tengah dapat dengan cepat menutup kesenjangan itu.
Memantau
- Perkembangan Selat Hormuz dan sinyal diplomatik apa pun dari pembicaraan nuklir Iran.
- Data inventaris minyak mingguan EIA.
- Minyak berpengaruh terhadap ekspektasi inflasi dan apakah itu menggeser postur bank sentral.
- Kinerja ekuitas sektor energi relatif terhadap pasar yang lebih luas.
Bitcoin: tontonan sentimen
BTC telah berusaha untuk stabil setelah koreksi 53% yang brutal selama 17 minggu terakhir, dipicu oleh meningkatnya ketegangan geopolitik dan kekhawatiran tarif baru.
Namun, kemarin melihat lonjakan 8% kembali di atas $72,000, dan “indeks ketakutan dan keserakahan” kripto melonjak menjadi 29 (ketakutan), naik dari bawah 20 (ketakutan ekstrim), di mana telah bertahan selama lebih dari sebulan, menunjukkan potensi pergeseran sentimen.
Cetakan inflasi AS yang lebih dingin dari perkiraan pada hari Rabu dapat memberikan bahan bakar lebih lanjut untuk terobosan; hot print berisiko menarik BTC kembali di bawah level US $70.000 yang baru saja direklamasi.
Memantau
- Reaksi cetak inflasi pada hari Rabu sebagai katalis makro utama untuk langkah tersebut.
- Setiap rotasi ke altcoin mengikuti kekuatan BTC.
- Data masuk/keluar ETF sebagai konfirmasi partisipasi institusi.
AUD/USD: Hawkish RBA bertemu dengan angin geopolitik
Aussie diperdagangkan mendekati level tertinggi lebih dari tiga tahun dan menuju kenaikan bulanan keempat berturut-turut, naik lebih dari 6% tahun-hingga saat ini, menjadikannya mata uang G10 berkinerja terbaik pada tahun 2026.
Pengemudi adalah perbedaan kebijakan yang jelas. Gubernur RBA Michele Bullock mengisyaratkan pertemuan kebijakan Maret “hidup” untuk kemungkinan kenaikan suku bunga, dan memperingatkan bahwa guncangan harga minyak dari ketegangan Iran dapat memicu kembali tekanan inflasi domestik.
Harga pasar sekarang menunjukkan sekitar 28% peluang kenaikan 25 bp pada pertemuan mendatang, sementara harga penuh dalam pengetatan hingga Mei, dan sekitar peluang 75% kenaikan lagi menjadi 4,35% pada akhir tahun.
Bacaan hawkish ini, melawan Fed yang ditunda dan menghadapi tekanan politik yang sopan, menciptakan potensi angin struktural bagi Aussie.
Memantau
- Reaksi AUD/USD terhadap data inflasi AS hari Rabu.
- Harga ulang probabilitas kenaikan suku bunga RBA sepanjang minggu.
- Harga bijih besi dan komoditas sebagai pendorong AUD sekunder.
- Sinyal permintaan China, mengingat eksposur ekspor Australia.
Since the start of 2024, the AUDUSD has reversed from the resistance area of 0.6870, a high formed in June and July 2023. The main factor leading to the AUDUSD trading lower is primarily due to the recovery in strength of the DXY. The AUDUSD currently trades along the support area and round number level of 0.67.
On Wednesday this week, the Australian CPI y/y data is expected to be released at 4.5%. While this is still above the RBA’s inflation target level of 2-3%, evidence of a sustained slowdown in inflation from the previous release of 4.9% is likely to signal some comfort to the overall rate path for the RBA. The RBA decided to keep rates on hold at 4.35% during the December meeting, a decision which saw the AUDUSD trade lower briefly.
Further downside on the AUDUSD can be expected if the CPI data is released at or lower than 4.5%, with the Ichimoku cloud and the RSI also indicating bearish sentiment for the AUDUSD. Look for the price to break through the bullish trendline and the price level of 0.6650 as a confirmation of further downside, with the next immediate support level at 0.6535 and the major support level at 0.63
US telecommunications giant, AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T), released its latest financial results before the opening bell in Wall Street on Wednesday. The company reported revenue of $32.022 billion for Q4 2023 vs. $31.457 billion. Revenue was up by 2.2% year-over-year.
Earnings per share (EPS) fell short of analyst estimate of $0.557 per share at $0.54 per share for the quarter, down by 12.96% year-over-year. Full year revenue reached $122.4 billion, up by 1.4% vs. 2022. Company overview Founded: 1885 Headquarters: Whitacre Tower, Dallas, Texas, United States Number of employees: 160,700 (2023) Industry: Telecommunications, Technology Key people: William Kennard (Chairman), John Stankey (CEO) CEO commentary ''We accomplished exactly what we said we would in 2023, delivering sustainable growth and consistent business performance, resulting in full-year free cash flow of $16.8 billion, ahead of our raised guidance.
As we advance our lead in converged connectivity, we will continue to scale our best-in-class 5G and fiber networks to meet customers’ growing demand for seamless, ubiquitous broadband, and drive durable growth for shareholders,'' John Stankey, CEO of AT&T, said in a statement to investors. Stock reaction The stock was down by 2.97% at the end of trading day on Wednesday at $16.68 a share. Stock performance 5 day: +1.71% 1 month: +0.66% 3 months: +9.87% Year-to-date: -0.54% 1 year: -18.27% AT&T stock price targets Oppenheimer: $21 Wells Fargo & Company: $20 Royal Bank of Canada: $30 Citigroup: $18 Morgan Stanley: $19 Scotiabank: $18.50 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: 17 Deutsche Bank: $22 Barclays: $17 Moffett Nathanson: $17 HSBC: $19 TD Cowen: $23 Raymond James: $25 Cowen: $25 Credit Suisse Group: $19 AT&T Inc. is the 115th largest company in the world with a market cap of $119.33 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap.
You can trade AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to ''Trading'' then select ''Share CFDs''. GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: AT&T Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
International Business Machines Corporation (NYSE: IBM) announced Q4 2023 financial results after the closing bell in the US on Wednesday. The American IT and consulting company reported revenue of $17.381 billion for the last quarter of 2023 (up by 4% year-over-year), narrowly beating Wall Street estimate of $17.289 billion. Earnings per share (EPS) reported at $3.87 per share vs. $3.794 per share expected.
EPS was up by 8% year-over-year. Company overview Founded: 1991 Headquarters: 1 Orchard Road, Armonk, New York, United States Number of employees: 288,300 (2022) Industry: Information technology Key people: Arvind Krishna (Chairman & CEO), Gary Cohn (Vice Chairman), James Kavanaugh (Senior Vice President & CFO) CEO and CFO commentary ''In the fourth quarter, we grew revenue in all of our segments, driven by continued adoption of our hybrid cloud and AI offerings. Client demand for AI is accelerating and our book of business for watsonx and generative AI roughly doubled from the third to the fourth quarter,'' said Arvind Krishna, CEO of IBM said in press release. "For the year, revenue growth was in line with our expectations, and we exceeded our free cash flow objective.
Based on the strength of our portfolio and demonstrated track record of innovation, for 2024 we expect revenue performance in line with our mid-single digit model and about $12 billion in free cash flow,” Krishna looked at the year ahead. James Kavanaugh, CFO of the company, also reflected on the company’s performance during the last quarter of 2023: ''We again demonstrated the fundamental strengths of our business in the fourth quarter through solid, broad-based revenue growth, continued profit margin expansion, increased productivity gains and strong cash generation.'' ''Throughout 2023, those strengths enabled us to increase our investment in R&D and talent, and complete nine acquisitions to bolster our hybrid cloud and AI capabilities, all while continuing to return value to shareholders through our dividend,'' Kavanaugh added. Stock reaction IBM shares were flat at the end of Wednesday at $173.93 as investors were awaiting the latest results.
Shares rose by around 5% in the after-hours trading. All eyes will be on the stock at the open on Thursday. Stock performance 5 day: +4.73% 1 month: +6.41% 3 months: +26.88% Year-to-date: +6.35% 1 year: +23.56% International Business Machines Corporation stock price targets Stifel Nicolaus: $183 Evercore ISI: $200 Jefferies Financial Group: $180 Societe Generale: $143 Bank of America: $170 Wedbush: $140 BMO Capital Markets: $155 Royal Bank of Canada: $179 Morgan Stanley: $130 JP Morgan Chase & Co.: $145 Credit Suisse Group: $162 Citigroup: $145 Moffett Nathanson: $140 International Business Machines Corporation is the 75th largest company in the world with a market cap of $158.81 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap.
You can trade International Business Machines Corporation (NYSE: IBM) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD on the MetaTrader 5 platform. To find out more, go to ''Trading'' then select ''Share CFDs''. GO Markets offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: International Business Machines Corporation, TradingView, MarketWatch, MarketBeat, CompaniesMarketCap
Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) reported the latest delivery numbers for Q4 2023 on Tuesday. World’s largest electric vehicle company produced around 495k cars during the quarter. Deliveries reached 484k.
The company produced a total of 1.85 million vehicles last year – up by 35% year-over-year. Total deliveries reached 1.81 million – up by 38% vs. 2022. Company overview Founded: 1/7/2003 Headquarters: Austin, Texas, United States Number of employees: 127,855 (2022) Industry: Automotive, renewable energy, artificial intelligence Key people: Elon Musk (CEO), Robyn Denholm (chair) The stock was little changed on Tuesday, down by 0.02% at $248.42 a share.
Tesla will announced Q4 2023 financial results after the US market closing bell on 24/1/2024. Stock performance 1 month:+ 5.45% 3 months: -1.26% 6 months: -10.67% 1 year: +101.67% Tesla price targets Morgan Stanley: $380 Wedbush: $350 Royal Bank of Canada: $300 Guggenheim: $132 Deutsche Bank: $260 Jefferies Financial Group: $210 HSBC: $146 Wells Fargo: $250 Citigroup: $255 Piper Sandler: $290 UBS Group: $266 JP Morgan: $135 Truist Financial: $243 Barclays: $260 Goldman Sachs: $275 TD Cowen: $200 Mizuho: $330 Tesla is the 8th largest company in the world with a market cap of $789.70 billion, according to CompaniesMarketCap. You can trade Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD.
GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs. Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Excludes Fridays; please see specifications section on platform for further details.
Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps. Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Tesla Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, CompaniesMarketCap, Wikipedia, MarketBeat
US professional services company, Paychex Inc. (NASDAQ: PAYX), released financial results for second quarter of fiscal 2024 before the market open on Thursday. Revenue reached $1.258 billion (up by 6% year-over-year), which fell short of $1.268 billion expected. Earnings per share was reported at $1.08 per share (up by 9% year-over-year), slightly above estimate of $1.074 per share.
Company overview Founded: 1971 Headquarters: Rochester, New York, United States Number of employees: 16,000 (2022) Industry: Business Process Outsourcing, human Capital Management Key people: B. Thomas Golisano (chairman), John Gibson (president & CEO), Efrain Rivera (senior VP & CFO) CEO commentary ''We are pleased with our results for the second quarter and the first half of fiscal 2024, with total revenue growth of 6% and diluted earnings per share and adjusted diluted earnings per share growth through the first half of the fiscal year of 10%. The macro-economic environment remains stable for small and mid-sized businesses, who continue to face challenges in both the cost of and access to growth capital; and finding quality talent in the current labor market.
Our Small Business Employment Watch continues to show moderation in both job growth and wage inflation,'' John Gibson, CEO of the American company commented on the latest results. ''We continue to see demand for our HCM technology, HR and insurance solutions, as businesses struggle to comply with increasing regulations and a challenging HR landscape and labor market,'' Gibson concluded. Stock reaction The stock fell by around 6% on Thursday, trading at $119.72 a share – the lowest level since 28/11/23. Stock performance 1 month: +0.28% 3 months: +5.27% Year-to-date: +3.22% 1 year: +6.33% Paychex stock price targets Barclays: $126 UBS Group: $120 Argus: $130 Bank of America: $106 Morgan Stanley: $127 Royal Bank of Canada: $130 TD Cowen: $131 Wedbush: $115 JP Morgan: $134 Robert W.
Baird: $126 Deutsche Bank: $116 Citigroup: $119 Jefferies Financial: $120 Paychex Inc. is the 419th largest company in the world with a market cap of $43.07 billion. You can trade Paychex Inc. (NASDAQ: PAYX) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Paychex Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap
The world’s biggest sporting goods company, Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE), reported Q2 of fiscal 2024 after the US market closed on Thursday. Nike reported revenue of $13.388 billion for the quarter (up by 1% year-over-year and down by 1% on neutral currency basis), narrowly falling short of Wall Street estimate of $13.391 billion. Earnings per share (EPS) topped Wall Street estimates for the quarter at $1.03 per share vs. estimate of $0.84 per share.
EPS was up by 21% from the year prior. Company overview Founded: 1964 Headquarters: Beaverton, Oregon, United States Number of employees: 3,700 (2023) Industry: Apparel, accessories, sports equipment Key people: Philip H. Knight (chairman emeritus), Mark Parker (executive chairman), John Donahoe (president and CEO), John Hoke III (chief design officer) CEO commentary "Our Q2 results demonstrated how we are getting back on our front foot in our key areas of innovation and growth.
This quarter showed strong execution by our team as we focus on our winning formula of innovative product, distinctive storytelling and differentiated marketplace experiences," CEO of Nike, John Donahoe, commented on the latest results. Stock reaction The stock was up by just under a 1% at the end of Thursday’s session at $122.53 a share. Share price fell by around 5% in the after-hours trading as the latest results were announced.
Stock performance 1 month: +13.47% 3 months: +33.70% Year-to-date: +4.66% 1 year: +4.93% Nike stock price targets Raymond James: $130 Telsey Advisory Group: $140 Royal Bank of Canada: $127 DZ Bank: $130 Citigroup: $135 Goldman Sachs: $139 Truist Financial: $108 Evercore ISI: $124 Deutsche Bank: $125 JP Morgan: $137 Barclays: $119 Morgan Stanley: $126 TD Cowen: $120 Nike Inc. is the 60th largest company in the world with a market cap of $186.35 billion. You can trade Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE) and many other stocks from the NYSE, NASDAQ, HKEX and ASX with GO Markets as a Share CFD. GO Markets now offers pre-market and after-market trading on popular US Share CFDs.
Trade the pre-market session: 4:00am to 9:30am, normal session, and after-market session: 4:00pm to 8:00pm, Eastern Standard Time. Why trade during extended hours? Volatility never sleeps.
Trade over earnings releases as they happen outside of main trading hours Reduce your risk and hedge your existing positions ahead of a new trading day Extended trading hours on popular US stocks means extended opportunities Sources: Nike Inc., TradingView, MarketWatch, Benzinga, CompaniesMarketCap