Maju lebih jauh bersama GO Markets

Expected earnings date: Wednesday, 28 January 2026 (US, after market close) / early Thursday, 29 January 2026 (AEDT)

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Key areas in focus

Intelligent Cloud (Azure)

Azure remains Microsoft’s primary earnings swing factor. Markets are watching to see whether any growth reflects demand strength or capacity constraints, and how AI-related workloads are impacting margins.

Productivity and Business Processes

Microsoft 365, Office, and LinkedIn are sources of recurring revenue for Microsoft. Growth, pricing discipline, and client churn remain the key variables that markets will be watching.

Personal Computing

Windows, devices, and gaming are more cyclical. Stabilisation of PC demand and gaming engagement remain secondary sources of revenue but are still noteworthy.

Artificial intelligence

Approaches around the monetisation of Microsoft’s AI play are still developing. Trends in enrolment and infrastructure cost are expected to be key factors.

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What happened last quarter

Microsoft reported results ahead of consensus, supported by steady cloud demand and resilient enterprise software revenues. 

Azure and other cloud services' growth remained a central focus, alongside commentary on AI-related investment and capacity.

Last earnings key highlights:

• Revenue: US$77.7 billion 
• Earnings per share (EPS): US$3.72 (GAAP) and US$4.13 (non-GAAP adjusted) 
• Intelligent Cloud revenue: US$30.9 billion
• Azure and other cloud services: up 40% year on year 
• Operating income: US$38.0 billion 

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How the market reacted last time

Microsoft shares fell in after-hours trading following the release, despite the beating of headline numbers, as investors focused on AI investment intensity, capacity constraints and related implications for future margins.

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What’s expected this quarter

Bloomberg consensus points to continued revenue growth led by cloud services, alongside broadly stable margins despite elevated capex.

Bloomberg consensus reference points (January 2026):

• Revenue: about US$68 to US$69 billion 
• EPS: about US$3.10 to US$3.20 (adjusted) 
• Azure growth: mid-to-high 20% year on year (YoY) (constant currency) 
• Operating margin: expected to remain broadly stable 
• Capex: expected to remain elevated, reflecting AI and cloud build-out 

*All above points observed as of 16 January 2026.

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Expectations

Sentiment appears cautious. Microsoft can remain sensitive to any cloud, margin, or guidance disappointment, particularly where investors interpret investment intensity as open-ended.

Price action traded within an established range of US$472 and US$490 recently, but has moved below this in the last week.

Listed options were pricing an indicative move of around ±2% based on near-dated options expiring after 28 January and an at-the-money options-implied ‘expected move’ estimate.

Implied volatility was about 33.5% annualised into the event as observed on Barchart at 11:00 AEDT on 16^th January 2026.

These are market-implied estimates and may change; actual post-earnings moves can be larger or smaller.

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What this means for Australian traders

Microsoft’s earnings may influence near-term sentiment across US technology indices, particularly the Nasdaq, with potential spillover into global equity risk appetite and, in turn, the ASX.

As a major technology stock, and with Tesla (TSLA) also scheduled to report after the US close on the same day, volatility in Nasdaq-linked products may increase while futures markets remain open.

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Important risk note 

Immediately after the US close and into the early Asia session, Nasdaq 100 (NDX) futures and related CFD pricing can reflect thinner liquidity, wider spreads, and sharper repricing around new information. 

Such an environment can increase gap risk and execution uncertainty relative to regular-hours conditions.

Expected earnings date: Wednesday, 28 January 2026 (US, after market close) / early Thursday, 29 January 2026 (AEDT)

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Key areas in focus

Advertising (Family of Apps)

Advertising remains Meta’s dominant revenue driver. AI-driven ad targeting, Reels monetisation, and engagement efficiency can be important contributors to revenue growth and may support advertiser outcomes, noting results can vary by advertiser, format, and market conditions.

User engagement and monetisation

Engagement trends across Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Threads remain closely watched as indicators that can influence monetisation assumptions and medium-term expectations.

Artificial intelligence

Meta views AI as a foundation for content discovery, advertising performance, and the development of generative tools. Markets may continue to evaluate whether AI-driven gains offset the level of infrastructure and data centre investment required to support these projects.

Reality Labs

Reality Labs remains loss-making. Management continues to frame AR/VR and metaverse-related platforms as long-term strategic investments, while acknowledging continued operating losses and a drag on earnings performance.

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What happened last quarter

Meta’s most recent quarterly update highlighted strong revenue growth alongside ongoing investment themes. 

The company’s reported (GAAP) net income and EPS reflected a one-time, non-cash income tax charge disclosed in the earnings materials, while management commentary also emphasised cost discipline and investment priorities.

Operating margins expanded year-on-year, despite elevated AI-related investment.

Last earnings key highlights

• Revenue: US$51.24 billion 
• Earnings per share (EPS): US$1.05 (GAAP) 
• Advertising revenue: US$50.08 billion 
• Operating margin: 40% 
• Reality Labs operating loss: about US$4.43 billion 

How the market reacted last time

Meta shares fell in after-hours trading after the release. Commentary at the time highlighted strong top-line outcomes, alongside investor focus on the outlook for spending and the pace of AI and infrastructure investment.

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What’s expected this quarter

Bloomberg consensus points to continued year-on-year revenue growth, led by advertising, with operating margins expected to remain elevated despite ongoing AI and infrastructure expenditure.

Bloomberg consensus reference points (January 2026)

• Revenue: about US$41 to US$43 billion 
• EPS: about US$4.80 to US$5.10 (adjusted) 
• Advertising growth: high-teens year on year (YoY) 
• Operating margin: expected to remain above 40% 
• Capital expenditure (capex): elevated, reflecting AI and data centre investment 

*All above points observed as of 23 January 2026.

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Expectations

Sentiment around Meta Platforms may be sensitive to any disappointment around advertising demand, margin sustainability, or the scale of ongoing investment in AI and Reality Labs.

Recent price action suggests that some market participants appear to be pricing in a relatively constructive earnings outcome, which can increase sensitivity to negative surprises.

Listed options were pricing an indicative move of around ±3% based on near-dated options expiring after 28 January and an at-the-money options-implied ‘expected move’ estimate.

Implied volatility was about 31% annualised into the event, as observed on Barchart at 11:00 am AEDT on 23 January 2026.

These are market-implied estimates and may change. Actual post-earnings moves can be larger or smaller.

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What this means for Australian traders

Meta’s earnings may influence near-term sentiment across US technology indices, particularly the Nasdaq, with potential spillover into broader global equity risk appetite and index-linked products traded during the Asia session after the release, which can be volatile and unpredictable following earnings events.

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Important risk note

Immediately after the US close and into the early Asia session, Nasdaq 100 (NDX) futures and related CFD pricing can reflect thinner liquidity, wider spreads, and sharper repricing around new information. 

Such an environment can increase gap risk and execution uncertainty relative to regular-hours conditions.

FX markets face a data-heavy period in the coming days, led by US inflation releases and late-week flash purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs). 

Regional data and central bank expectations in Japan, Europe, and Australia may influence cross-currency moves, particularly if outcomes differ from expectations.

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Quick facts:

• US Personal Income and Outlays is a key inflation release this week, closely watched by policymakers.
• Flash PMIs across the US, Eurozone, Germany, and the UK offer a timely read on growth momentum.
• Australian data, including labour market indicators, remains important for AUD sensitivity and Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) expectations.
• FX markets can be sensitive when data outcomes differ from expectations.

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USDJPY

What to watch

US attention centres on inflation and activity data, particularly the Personal Income and Outlays report and the PCE price index, alongside late-week flash manufacturing and services PMIs.

These releases are closely followed by markets for their potential influence on rate expectations and USD sensitivity.

On the JPY side, Bank of Japan (BoJ) developments remain relevant, although US data has often been a key driver of recent moves.

Key releases and events

• Fri 23 Jan (US): US Personal Income and Outlays (including PCE inflation)
• Fri 23 Jan (US): Manufacturing and services PMI

Technical snapshot

USDJPY continues to trade above its rising 200-day moving average, with recent daily candles showing greater overlap and smaller ranges over recent weeks.

• Price has remained above the long-term average since late September, with higher swing lows still visible.
• Momentum appears to have moderated since early January, consistent with slowing follow-through rather than reversal.
• Daily ranges have narrowed compared with the October to November advance, again suggesting short-term consolidation.

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EURUSD

What to watch

Eurozone flash PMIs and Germany producer price index (PPI) data provide insights into regional growth momentum and whether inflation pressures are building.

While these releases may influence immediate EUR sentiment, EURUSD continues to trade in the broader context of US data outcomes and global risk conditions.

Key releases and events

• Thu 22 Jan: Germany Producer Price Index (PPI)
• Fri 23 Jan: Eurozone / Germany flash PMIs (manufacturing and services)

Technical snapshot

EURUSD is trading above its rising 200-day moving average (daily chart), although price action since July suggests the market has become more range-bound rather than directional, following the advances in the first half of 2025.

• The broader upward structure has been in place since the beginning of 2025, although progress higher has stalled over recent months.
• Momentum readings have drifted toward neutral since late November, consistent with balanced conditions.
• Average daily range has continued to compress since July, consistent with a flattening of the trend.

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GBPAUD

What to watch

Australian labour market data remains central for AUD sensitivity and RBA expectations. UK CPI is also due this week, which may contribute to cross volatility, particularly if it shifts expectations around the UK rates outlook.

Late-week PMI releases can also influence short-term direction, especially where they add to or challenge the current growth narrative.

Key releases and events

• Wed 21 Jan: UK CPI
• Thu 22 Jan: Australia Labour Force, Australia (December 2025)
• Fri 23 Jan: UK flash PMIs (manufacturing and services)

Technical snapshot

• GBPAUD continues to trade below its long-term moving average, with price action remaining in a downside direction since late November.
• The long-term average flattened through September and has turned lower since October, with the price remaining below and showing recent signs of a greater gap between the price and the moving average.
• Momentum has remained below neutral over recent months, with any retracements to the upside showing limited follow-through.
• Daily ranges have narrowed compared with earlier swings, suggesting a consistent but controlled drop in price rather than impulsive movement.

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Bottom line

With multiple data releases due across key regions, FX markets may remain sensitive to outcomes that differ from expectations.

Existing technical conditions suggest that reactions may vary by pair, with some markets consolidating while others could retain recent directional characteristics.