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With the Iran conflict reshaping energy markets, central banks turning hawkish, and gold in freefall despite the chaos, the safe haven playbook in 2026 is more complicated than ever.
Quick facts
- Gold has fallen more than 20% from its all-time high, despite an active war in the Middle East
- The Singapore dollar is near its strongest level against the USD since October 2014
- The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hiked rates to 4.10% in March 2026 as Iran-driven oil prices push Australian inflation higher
1. Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold remains the most widely traded safe haven globally. It benefits from geopolitical stress, US dollar weakness, and negative real interest rate environments. However, its short-term behaviour in 2026 demands explanation.
Despite an active war in the Middle East, gold has sold off sharply. The likely cause is the Fed trimming its 2026 rate cut projections, citing hotter-than-expected producer inflation and Strait of Hormuz-driven oil prices creating inflation persistence.
Ultimately, gold's bull case rests on falling real yields and a weaker dollar, and right now neither condition is in place. Traders should be aware that during an inflationary supply shock like the one the Iran conflict has delivered, gold does not always behave as expected.
However, if you zoom out, the longer-term picture reinforces gold’s safe-haven status, ending 2025 as one of its strongest years on record.
Key variables to watch: US Federal Reserve guidance, real yields, and USD direction.
2. Japanese Yen (JPY)
The yen has long functioned as a safe-haven currency thanks to Japan's status as the world's largest net creditor nation. In times of stress, Japanese investors tend to repatriate capital, driving the yen higher.
However, that dynamic seems to have shifted in 2026 so far. The yen is down 6.63% YoY, near its weakest level since July 2024, and surging oil import costs are weighing on the currency.
The yen's safe-haven role has not disappeared, though. It tends to reassert itself during sharp equity selloffs and liquidity events. But in an oil-driven inflation shock, it faces structural headwinds.
Key variables to watch: BOJ rate decisions, US-Japan yield differentials, and any intervention signals from Japanese authorities.
3. Swiss Franc (CHF)
Switzerland's political neutrality, account surplus, and strong institutional framework make the franc a reflexive safe-haven currency. Unlike the yen, the CHF is holding up in the current environment, with the franc gaining against the dollar in 2026, and EUR/CHF remaining stable.
For traders across Europe and the Middle East, CHF is often the first port of call during stress events.
Key variables to watch: Swiss National Bank intervention language, European geopolitical developments, and global risk indices.
4. US Treasury Bonds (US10Y)
Under normal conditions, US government bonds are some of the deepest, most liquid safe-haven instruments in the world. But 2026 is not normal conditions…
Yields have been rising, not falling, meaning bond prices are moving in the wrong direction for anyone seeking safety.
When yields rise during a risk-off event, it signals the market is treating bonds as an inflation risk rather than a safety asset.
However, short-duration Treasuries like bills and 2-year notes are a different story. They may offer higher income with less duration risk than longer-dated bonds, which is why some investors use them more defensively in volatile periods.
Key variables to watch: Fed communication, CPI and PCE data, and whether the 10Y yield breaks above 4.50% or pulls back below 4.00%.
5. Australian Dollar vs. US Dollar (AUD/USD): inverse play
The Australian dollar is widely considered a risk-on currency, tied closely to global commodity demand and Chinese growth.
In risk-off environments, AUD/USD typically falls. A falling AUD/USD can serve as a leading indicator of broader global stress, which can be useful context for traders with regional exposure.
The RBA hiking cycle (two hikes since the start of 2026) is providing some floor under the AUD, but in a sustained global risk-off move, that support has limits.
Key variables to watch: RBA forward guidance, Chinese PMI data, iron ore prices, and oil's impact on Australian inflation expectations.
6. US Dollar Index (DXY)
The US dollar acts as the world's reserve currency and a reflexive safe haven during acute stress. When liquidity dries up, global demand for USD tends to spike regardless of the underlying trend.
Over the past 12 months, the dollar has lost ground as global confidence in US fiscal trajectory has wavered. But over the past month, it has firmed, supported by a hawkish Fed and elevated geopolitical risk.
In risk-off environments, the USD continues to attract safe-haven flows. However, rising oil prices can increase inflation risks, complicating Federal Reserve policy expectations.
Key variables to watch: Fed rate path, US inflation data, and global liquidity conditions.
7. Singapore Dollar (SGD)
Less discussed globally but highly relevant across Southeast Asia, the SGD is one of the most quietly resilient currencies in the current environment.
The Singapore dollar has advanced to near its highest level since October 2014, supported by safe haven flows and investors drawn to Singapore's AAA-rated bonds, a dividend-heavy stock market, and predictable government policies.
The MAS manages the SGD through a nominal effective exchange rate band rather than an interest rate, giving it a different character from other safe-haven currencies.
For traders with exposure to Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, and the broader ASEAN region, USD/SGD can act as a practical benchmark for regional risk appetite.
Key variables to watch: MAS policy band adjustments, regional trade flows, and USD/Asia dynamics more broadly.
8. Cash and Short-Duration Fixed Income
Sometimes, the most effective safe haven can be to simply reduce exposure. With central bank rates still elevated across major economies, cash and short-duration government bonds can offer a meaningful yield while sitting outside market risk.
The RBA raised the cash rate to 4.10% at its March meeting. The Bank of England held at 3.75%, while the ECB kept its deposit facility rate at 2.00% and main refinancing rate at 2.15%. Across all major economies, short-duration government paper is offering a real return for the first time in years.
In a volatile environment, capital preservation can sometimes matter more than return maximisation.
Key variables to watch: Central bank meeting calendars across all major economies, and any shifts in forward guidance on the rate path.
What to Watch Next
Fed inflation data. Core PCE is the single most important data point for gold, bonds, and the dollar right now. Any surprise in either direction could move all three simultaneously.
Yen intervention risk. The yen is near levels that have previously triggered action from Japanese authorities. Traders with Asia-Pacific exposure should monitor closely.
RBA's next move. With Australia now at 4.10% and inflation still above target, the question is whether the hiking cycle has further to run. The next RBA meeting is on 5 May.
Geopolitical trajectory. Any move toward de-escalation in the Middle East would quickly reduce safe haven demand and rotate capital back into risk assets. The reverse is equally true.
China's growth signal. A stronger-than-expected Chinese recovery could lift commodity currencies and reduce defensive positioning across Asia-Pacific.
The Longer-Term Lens
The 2026 environment is exposing that the effectiveness of safe haven assets depends on the type of shock, not just its severity.
An inflationary supply shock like the Iran conflict has delivered is one of the most difficult environments for traditional safe havens.
Gold falls as real yields rise. Bonds sell off as inflation expectations climb. Even the yen can weaken as Japan's import costs surge.
What has held up are assets with institutional credibility, managed frameworks, and deep liquidity regardless of macro conditions. The Swiss franc, Singapore dollar, and short-duration cash instruments fit that description better than gold or long bonds do right now.
In 2026, the question for traders is not "which safe haven?" It is "a safe haven from what?"
February opens with a policy-heavy tone led by Australia’s RBA decision, while Japan provides the core macro anchors through GDP and inflation updates. In contrast, China’s calendar lightens due to the Spring Festival, shifting attention to liquidity and policy headlines. Across the region, a firmer USD and softer metals continue to frame cross-asset performance, especially for commodity-linked currencies.
Australia: RBA
Australia begins February with a policy-driven focus as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) delivers its monetary policy decision, setting the month’s initial tone for rates, currency, and equities. While markets had priced around a 70% chance of a hike as of 30 January, expectations remain highly sensitive to evolving data and RBA commentary.
Key dates
- RBA Monetary Policy Decision: 2:30 pm, 3 February (AEDT)
- Wage Price Index (WPI): 11:30 am, 18 February (AEDT)
- Labour Force: 11:30 am, 19 February (AEDT)
What markets look for
Aussie traders will gauge whether the RBA reinforces a data‑dependent stance or shifts more decisively toward tightening.
Wage and labour data will be central in testing inflation persistence, while the next CPI reading anchors positioning heading into March. A balanced or mildly hawkish tone could keep short‑term yields elevated and limit downside in the AUD.
Market sensitivities
AUD and ASX performance will primarily reflect the RBA’s policy tone and broader USD momentum, while resource‑linked sectors should continue to track metals and bulk commodity trends.
The February earnings season, highlighted by CBA and CSL (11 Feb), BHP (17 Feb), and Rio Tinto (19 Feb), is also set to reintroduce stock‑specific drivers once the initial policy focus fades.
Australia: CPI
Australia’s February Consumer Price Index (CPI) release will be a key post‑RBA event, offering the clearest read on whether domestic inflation pressures are easing in line with the central bank’s expectations.
The data following the RBA’s February policy decision and could quickly reset rate path probabilities reflected in ASX futures pricing.
Key dates
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 11:30 am, 25 February (AEDT)
What markets look for
Markets will focus on whether trimmed‑mean and services inflation components show further moderation.
Persistent strength in non‑tradables or wage‑related sectors could reinforce expectations for additional tightening later in Q1, while a softer headline would support the view that policy rates have peaked.
Market sensitivities
A stronger‑than‑expected CPI print would likely lift front‑end yields and support the AUD, while a downside surprise could weigh on the currency and flatten the yield curve.
Equity sentiment may diverge and financials could find relief from a pause bias, whereas rate‑sensitive sectors like real estate and consumer discretionary would benefit most from a cooler inflation read.
Japan: Q4 GDP
Japan’s Q4 GDP release will be a key reference point for how firmly the recovery is progressing after recent quarters of uneven growth momentum. Arriving ahead of the Tokyo CPI print, it helps shape expectations for domestic demand, external trade performance, and how much scope policymakers have to adjust their stance without derailing activity.
Key dates
- Q4 GDP: 11:50 pm, 15 February (GMT)/ 10:50 am, 16 February (AEDT)
What markets look for
Investors pay close attention to the balance between consumption, business investment, and net exports to judge whether growth is broad‑based or narrowly supported.
A stronger‑than‑expected print tends to reinforce confidence in Japan’s expansion story, while a weaker outcome can revive concerns about stagnation and delay expectations for any meaningful policy shift.
Japan: Tokyo CPI
Tokyo’s latest inflation reading shows headline CPI easing to 1.5% year‑on‑year in January from 2.0% in December 2025, dipping further below the recent peaks seen during the post‑pandemic upswing.
The CPI release offers one of the timeliest reads on Japan’s inflation pulse and is closely watched as a lead indicator for nationwide price trends.
Coming late in the month, it serves as a check on whether the recent inflation upswing is sustaining at levels consistent with policymakers’ many objectives.
- Tokyo CPI: 11:30 pm, 26 February (GMT)/ 10:30 am, 27 February (AEDT)
What markets look for
Attention centres on core measures that strip out volatile components, alongside services prices, to see whether underlying inflation is holding near target or drifting lower.
A firmer profile strengthens the case that Japan is exiting its low‑inflation regime, while softer readings suggest that price pressures remain fragile and dependent on external factors.
Market sensitivities
A hotter‑than‑expected Tokyo CPI print can push Japanese yields higher and lend support to the yen, often translating into pressure on exporter‑heavy equity names.
Conversely, a softer outcome tends to ease yield pressures, weaken the yen, and provide some relief to equity sectors that benefit from a more accommodative policy backdrop.
China
China’s February macro calendar is structurally lighter due to Spring Festival timing.
The National Bureau of Statistics of China notes that some releases are adjusted around Spring Festival timing, with the February PMI scheduled for early March leaving markets without major domestic data anchors for much of the month.
Key dates
- Spring Festival: 17 February to 3 March
What markets look for
Markets turn their focus to policy signals out of Beijing — think targeted stimulus or liquidity injections, as well as shifts in funding conditions and flows responding to global risk sentiment or USD moves.
Trade and tariff rhetoric, or surprise consumption measures like expanded trade-in subsidies and festive spending incentives recently flagged by the Ministry of Commerce, often spark sharper reactions than the usual data releases.
Market sensitivities
CNH and CNY pairs turn more reactive to USD flows and external headlines, often amplifying volatility in regional equities, commodity currencies like AUD, and China-exposed EM assets.
Holiday-thinned liquidity elevates headline risk, particularly in materials (iron ore, copper), tech hardware supply chains, and regional financials, where policy surprises or US tariff updates can trigger 1–2% daily index swings.
Expected earnings date: Wednesday, 4 February 2026 (US, after market close) / ~8:00 am, Thursday, 5 February 2026 (AEDT)
Alphabet’s earnings provide insight into global digital advertising demand, enterprise cloud spending, and broader technology-sector investment trends.
As Google Search and YouTube are widely used by both consumers and businesses, results are often used as one input when assessing online activity and corporate marketing budgets, alongside other indicators.
Key areas in focus
Search
Search advertising remains Alphabet’s largest revenue driver. Markets are likely to focus on ad growth rates, pricing metrics such as cost-per-click, and overall advertiser demand across sectors such as retail, travel, and small-to-medium businesses.
YouTube
YouTube contributes to both advertising and subscription revenue. Markets commonly monitor advertising momentum, engagement trends, and monetisation developments as indicators of digital media conditions and brand spending.
Google Cloud
Sustained Cloud profitability is often discussed as a factor that may influence longer-term earnings expectations, though outcomes remain uncertain. Markets are expected to focus on revenue growth, enterprise adoption trends, and operating margins.
Other bets
Initiatives such as autonomous driving and life sciences, while typically smaller contributors to revenue, markets may still watch spending levels and progress updates as indicators of capital allocation and cost discipline.
Cost and margin framework
Management has previously flagged elevated capex tied to AI infrastructure, including data centres, specialised chips, and computing capacity. Traffic acquisition costs, staffing levels, and infrastructure expansion are also key variables influencing profitability.
What happened last quarter
Alphabet’s most recent quarterly update highlighted advertising trends, Cloud profitability, and continued increases in capex to support AI initiatives.
Management commentary has indicated that infrastructure spending is intended to support long-term competitiveness, while the market continues to assess the near-term margin trade-offs.
Last earnings key highlights
For reported figures and segment detail from the most recent quarter, refer to Alphabet’s latest earnings release materials, including revenue, earnings per share (EPS), Services mix, Cloud operating income, and capex commentary.
- Revenue: US$102.35 billion
- EPS: US$2.87
- Operating income: US$31.23 billion
- Services revenue: US$87.05 billion
- Cloud revenue: US$15.16 billion
Google Services revenues and operating income Q3 2025 | Alphabet earnings release
What’s expected this quarter
Bloomberg consensus estimates moderate year-on-year (YoY) revenue growth and higher EPS versus the prior-year quarter, with ongoing focus on operating margins given AI-related investment.
Bloomberg consensus reference points:
- EPS: low-to-mid US$2 range
- Revenue: high US$80 billion to low US$90 billion range
- Capex: expected to remain elevated
*All above points observed as of 31 January 2026.
Market-implied expectations
Listed options implied an indicative expected move of around ±4% to ±6% over the relevant near-dated expiry window. Movements derived from option prices observed at 11:00 am AEDT, 2 February 2026.
These are market-implied estimates and may change. Actual post-earnings price moves can be larger or smaller.
What this means for Australian market participants
Alphabet’s earnings can influence near-term sentiment across major US equity indices, particularly Nasdaq-linked products, with potential spillover into the Asia session following the release.
Important risk note
Immediately after the US close and into the early Asia session, Nasdaq 100 (NDX) futures and related CFD pricing can reflect thinner liquidity, wider spreads, and sharper repricing around new information.
Such an environment can increase gap risk and execution uncertainty relative to regular-hours conditions.
Global markets enter a catalyst-dense week where multiple central bank decisions, ongoing US earnings, and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate decision may help shape near-term direction.
- RBA rate decision: Market pricing currently implies a higher probability of a Target Cash Rate increase.
- Global central banks: The European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE) both communicate within the same week, creating the potential for policy cross-currents.
- US earnings: The earnings cycle continues with Alphabet and Amazon reporting this week.
- Gold: Trading near elevated levels amid macro uncertainty and shifting rate expectations.
RBA rate decision
- RBA decision Tuesday, 3 February, 2:30 pm (AEDT)
- RBA media conference: Tuesday, 3 February, 3:30 pm (AEDT)
A 67% likelihood of a rate rise is suggested on the RBA rate-tracker within the futures pricing framework, indicating a market-implied probability of a move.
Market impact
- AUD pairs may respond quickly to any repricing of the rate path.
- Rate-sensitive equity sectors could see rotation.
- Government bond yields may adjust if expectations shift.
ECB and BoE of England
Key decision timing
- ECB monetary policy meeting: 4–5 February
- BoE announcement: Thursday, 5 February
When several major central banks communicate within the same window, markets often focus on forward guidance as much as the decisions themselves.
Market impact
- EUR and GBP volatility may increase around policy communication.
- Relative yield expectations could influence capital flows.
- Equity sentiment may respond to shifts in liquidity assumptions.
US earnings continue
The earnings cycle remains active, with investors typically focusing on guidance, margins, and capital expenditure alongside headline results.
After an extended equity advance, consistent outcomes may help stabilise sentiment, while disappointments can influence short-term positioning.
Scheduled earnings
- Walt Disney: Monday, 2 February (US time)/ Tuesday, 3 February (AEDT)
- Palantir Technologies: Monday, 2 February (US time)/ Tuesday, 3 February (AEDT)
- Advanced Micro Devices: Tuesday, 3 February (US time)/ Wednesday, 4 February (AEDT)
- PayPal: Tuesday, 3 February (US time, after market close)/ Wednesday, 4 February (AEDT)
- Alphabet: Wednesday, 4 February (US time, after market close)/ Thursday,5 February (AEDT)
- Amazon: Thursday, 5 February (US time, after market close)/ Friday, 6 February (AEDT)
Additional notable reporters across the week include Eli Lilly, PepsiCo, Qualcomm, Ford, and Roblox.
*All above dates observed as of 30 January 2026; dates subject to change.
Market impact
- Index moves may hinge on guidance durability across companies.
- Volatility may cluster around major releases.
- First reporters in each sector may influence other companies yet to report.
Why gold remains in focus
Gold has traded near elevated levels amid macro uncertainty and shifting rate expectations. For many traders, strength in gold is sometimes associated with defensive positioning, though gold prices can be volatile and can fall.
The US dollar, Treasury yield movements and geopolitical narrative often influence short-term direction.
Market impact
- Continued strength may suggest some investors are leaning toward defensive positioning.
- USD and sovereign yield movements often influence short-term direction.
- After a strong advance, periods of consolidation or profit-taking are common.
Expected earnings date: Thursday, 5 February 2026 (US, after market close)/early Friday, 6 February 2026
Amazon’s earnings provide insight into global consumer spending trends, cloud infrastructure demand, and the monetisation of its ecosystem across retail, advertising, and subscription services.
Focus is expected to remain on performance across key business areas, along with commentary on cost efficiency, capital expenditure, and AI-related investments, including data centre expansion.
Key areas in focus
Online stores and third-party services
Amazon’s core retail business remains sensitive to discretionary consumer demand, particularly through the December-quarter holiday period. Markets are likely to focus on revenue growth and margins across both first-party retail and third-party seller services. Cost pressures will also be evaluated.
AWS (Amazon Web Services)
AWS is a key earnings driver. Investors are likely to focus on revenue growth rates, margin trends, and indications around enterprise cloud spending. AI workloads will also be noteworthy. Any commentary on capacity expansion and capex is likely to be closely watched.
Advertising services
Amazon’s advertising business has become an increasingly important profit contributor. Markets are likely to assess growth momentum, advertiser demand, and how advertising integrates across Amazon’s retail and Prime ecosystems.
Subscription services (including Prime)
Subscription revenue includes Prime memberships and related digital services. Investors may watch engagement, pricing dynamics, and retention trends as indicators of ecosystem strength.
Cost and margin framework
Management has previously emphasised the need for cost discipline across fulfilment, logistics, and corporate expenses. Reported operating margins and any updates on efficiency gains or reinvestment priorities across key business services will be of interest.
What happened last quarter
Amazon’s most recent quarterly update reported revenue growth and operating income outcomes, with AWS and advertising referenced as key contributors, alongside ongoing cost-control measures across the retail business.
The prior update also included discussion relevant to investment priorities in cloud and AI infrastructure, which continue to influence market expectations.
Last earnings key highlights
- Revenue: US$180.2 billion
- Earnings per share (EPS): US$1.95 (diluted)
- AWS revenue: US$33.0 billion
- Advertising services revenue: US$17.7 billion
- Operating income: US$17.4 billion
How the market reacted last time
Amazon shares moved higher in after-hours trading following the previous release, based on reporting at the time.
What’s expected this quarter
Bloomberg consensus estimates point to year-on-year EPS growth for the quarter ended December 2025, with markets focused on the revenue outcome, operating margins, and AWS performance, given the importance of the December quarter (Q4) to Amazon’s earnings profile.
Bloomberg consensus reference points (January 2026):
- EPS: about US$1.60
- Revenue: about US$170 billion
- Full-year FY2026 EPS: about US$5.10
*All above points observed as of 27 January 2026.
Expectations
Market sentiment around Amazon may be sensitive to any disappointment in AWS growth, operating margins, or December-quarter (Q4 2025) retail performance, given the stock’s large index weighting within major US equity indices and its role in these areas.
Listed options were pricing an indicative move of around ±4% to ±5% based on near-dated, at-the-money options-implied expected move estimates observed on Barchart at 11:00 am AEDT, 28 January 2026.
Implied volatility was approximately 32% annualised at that time.
These are market-implied estimates (not a forecast) and may change. Actual post-earnings price moves can be larger or smaller.
What this means for Australian investors
Amazon’s earnings can influence near-term sentiment across major US equity indices, with potential spillover into the Asia session following the release. It may also influence sentiment towards ASX-listed companies with significant online sales exposure.
Important risk note
Immediately after the US close and into the early Asia session, Nasdaq 100 (NDX) futures and related CFD pricing can reflect thinner liquidity, wider spreads, and sharper repricing around new information.
Such an environment can increase gap risk and execution uncertainty relative to regular-hours conditions.
Gold's breakthrough above US$5,000 and silver's surge through US$100 signal this year could be one for the history books for metal traders (one way or another).
Quick facts
- Elevated safe-haven demand lifts Gold targets from US$5,400 to US$6,000 after early-year US$5,000 breakout.
- Artificial intelligence (AI) and data-centre infrastructure ramp-up could help drive silver and copper demand.
- Continued geopolitical uncertainty and shifting monetary policy could trigger metal volatility throughout the year.
Top 5 metals to watch in 2026
1. Gold
Gold's breakout over US$5,100 arrived three quarters ahead of some forecasts. With Bank of America quickly raising its end-of-year target to US$6,000 and Goldman Sachs projecting US$5,400, the safe-haven commodity remains the biggest asset in focus for 2026.
Key drivers:
- Central banks are currently buying an average of 60 tonnes of gold per month, compared to 17 tonnes pre-2022.
- Two Fed rate cuts are priced in for 2026, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold.
- Trump tariff policies, Middle East tensions, and fiscal sustainability concerns are keeping safe-haven demand elevated.
- Gold's share of total financial assets hit 2.8% in Q3 2025, with room to grow as retail FOMO kicks in.
What to watch
- Jerome Powell is set to be replaced as Fed chair in May 2026. Actual policy direction post-replacement may differ from current market expectations for cuts.
- If geopolitical hedges into safe havens remain or if there is an unwinding like post- 2024 US election.
- The potential weaponisation of dollar asset holdings by European nations as a response to US tariffs.
2. Silver
Silver is the metal that has benefited the most from the 2025 AI boom, with its surge to US$112 all-time-highs to kick off 2026 (70% above fundamental value as per Bank of America signal), demonstrating its volatile potential.
Key drivers
- Industrial demand from AI infrastructure, solar, and electric vehicles (EVs), semiconductors and data centres currently has no viable substitute for silver's conductivity.
- Six consecutive years of supply deficit, with above-ground stocks depleting and recycling bottlenecks limiting secondary supply.
- Policy optics may matter. The US decision to add silver to its list of “critical minerals” has been cited as a potential factor in volatility, including around trade policy risk.
- Retail participation can amplify price moves, particularly when the demand for gold becomes “too expensive”.
What to watch
- If solar panel demand continues its trajectory, or if 2025 was the peak.
- Whether the recycling supply responds to record prices by increasing silver refining and material processing capacity.
- How exchange inventory and lease rates move as potential signals of physical tightness.
3. Copper
Copper's 2026 story hinges on continued data centre demand, renewable energy infrastructure growth, and China's struggling property market.
Key drivers
- Data centre copper consumption is projected to hit 475,000 tonnes in 2026, up 110,000 tonnes from 2025.
- Worker strikes in Chile and Grasberg restart delays are keeping the Copper market structurally tight.
- The US tariff decision on refined copper imports is expected in mid-2026 (15%+ currently anticipated), creating potential stockpiling and trade flow distortions.
- Goldman Sachs has forecast that power grid infrastructure and EV buildout could add "another United States" worth of copper demand by 2030.
- Current Chinese property weakness is creating demand uncertainty, potentially offsetting infrastructure spending.
What to watch
- Whether Grasberg ramps production smoothly or faces further setbacks.
- Chinese property market stimulus effectiveness.
- Actual tariff implementation timing and magnitude.
- Yangshan premium movements signalling real physical demand versus financial positioning.
4. Aluminium
Trading near three-year highs of US$3,200, aluminium faces continued tightness into 2026 as China's capacity ceiling forces global markets to adjust.
Key drivers
- China's 45 million tonne capacity cap was reached in 2025. For the first time in decades, Chinese output cannot expand, potentially ending 80% of global supply growth.
- As copper prices increase, Reuters has reported that some manufacturers have been substituting aluminium for copper in certain applications as relative prices shift.
What to watch
- South32 has said Mozal Aluminium is expected to be placed on care and maintenance around 15 March 2026, thus removing Mozambique's 560,000 tonne significant supply.
- If Indonesian and Chinese offshore capacity additions can compensate for Chinese domestic ceiling.
- Century Aluminium's 50,000 tonne Mount Holly restart in Q2 could provide a signal for the broader industry as the smelter is expected to reach full production by 30 June 2026.
5. Platinum
Platinum's breakout above US$2,800 follows three consecutive years of supply deficit and increased adoption of hydrogen fuel cells (for which it is a vital component).
Key drivers
- The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) has forecast a significant supply deficit of 850,000 ounces in 2026 which could drain inventories, with limited new production coming online.
- WPIC forecasts 875,000 to 900,000 oz uptake by 2030 for heavy-duty trucks, buses, and green hydrogen electrolysers.
- Palladium-to-platinum substitution in catalytic converters is increasing in EV production.
What to watch
- Supply response from producers. Platreef and Bakubung are adding 150,000 oz, but production discipline could limit a broader ramp-up.
- US tariffs on Russian palladium could create spillover demand for platinum in EV production.
- The pace of hydrogen infrastructure investment and heavy-duty vehicle adoption rates in Europe, China, and US.
- Chinese jewellery demand could come into play. Just a 1% substitution from gold could widen the platinum deficit by 10% of the global supply.
You can trade Gold, Silver, and other Commodity CFDs, including energies and agricultural products, on GO Markets.
FX markets enter an important window with a Federal Reserve policy decision and press conference, US ISM activity data, German inflation releases, China PMIs, and Australian labour figures all due.
Quick facts
- The upcoming Fed policy decision and press conference are closely watched for guidance on the potential timing of rate cuts, with implications for US Treasury yields and USD direction.
- Broad USD selling has intensified over the last 48 hours. The move has coincided with renewed tariff rhetoric and heightened sensitivity to FX intervention narratives.
- ISM Manufacturing PMI is scheduled for Monday, 2 February, with ISM Services PMI on Wednesday, 4 February, providing timely insight into US growth momentum.
- German CPI, euro area GDP and unemployment, China PMIs, and Australian labour data provide regional context, particularly for EUR and AUD crosses.
USD/JPY
What to watch
The Federal Reserve decision and subsequent press conference are key events influencing US Treasury yields.
Any shift in tone around inflation progress, economic risks, or rate cut timing expectations may affect yield differentials and near-term USD sensitivity.
Recent broad USD weakness, reinforced by tariff-related headlines and intervention sensitivity, has added downside pressure to the USD.
On the JPY side, Japan inflation signals, including Tokyo CPI, are relevant as indicators of domestic price trends and potential policy direction.
Key releases and events
- Thu 30 Jan: Japan Tokyo CPI (January)
- Thu 30 Jan: Federal Reserve policy decision and press conference
- Mon 2 Feb: US ISM Manufacturing PMI
- Wed 4 Feb: US ISM Services PMI
Technical snapshot
USDJPY has broken lower from its recent consolidation zone, with downside range evident over the last 48 hours. Price has moved down to the 200-exponential moving average (EMA) and is testing a level not seen since October 2025.
EUR/USD
What to watch
The Fed decision and press conference may influence EUR/USD primarily through USD moves linked to Treasury yield reactions.
On the EUR side, German CPI will show inflation trends, while euro area flash GDP and unemployment data inform the regional growth outlook.
Key releases and events
- Thu 29 Jan: Germany CPI (preliminary)
- Thu 29 Jan: Eurozone flash GDP, Q4 2025
- Thu 30 Jan: Federal Reserve decision and press conference
- Fri 30 Jan: Eurozone unemployment rate
Technical snapshot
EURUSD has extended above a prior resistance level, with expanded daily ranges and strong momentum. Price action in other USD crosses suggests the move may be reflecting USD weakness, rather than a material shift in euro area fundamentals.
EUR/AUD
What to watch
Alongside euro area growth numbers, Australian employment data may influence near-term EUR/AUD sensitivity ahead of the RBA policy decision next week.
China's official PMIs remain relevant, as shifts in Chinese activity expectations can influence AUD via commodity demand and regional risk sentiment.
Key releases and events
- Thu 29 Jan: Australia Labour Force, Detailed (Dec 2025), 11:30am AEDT
- Fri 31 Jan: China official Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs
- Tue 4 Feb: RBA policy decision
Technical snapshot
EUR/AUD has decisively broken below its prior support zone, with price now testing levels not seen since April 2025. Momentum remains negative, consistent with a renewed downside phase rather than consolidation.
Bottom line
The Fed decision and press conference, US PMI data, German inflation releases, China PMIs, and Australian labour figures are clustered in a short window.
Markets will be watching whether the USD weakness evident over the last 48 hours extends further.