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Can you teach old dogs new tricks? Yes, of course you can if you give them treats and train them correctly through the new learning process. To teach an old dog new tricks the dog handler will be re-training the dog’s brain and so it is with human beings when it comes to currency trading.

We need to re-train our brains to learn how to behave properly in the Forex market. Let me explain. Your entire life as a human you have been accustomed to a high degree of certainty and influence in most situations.

Let's say you own a business and that business is not doing well. You have the ability to change many things, the staff, the location, the stock, the equipment, the selling method, the price and even the type of customers you are selling too. The bottom line is you have the ability to change and influence virtually every situation and what I am referring too is not restricted to just business owners.

As a human being throughout your entire life you’ve had the ability to manipulate situations to get the outcomes you desire. But in the currency markets the level of control and influence you have with respect to your currency trade is extremely limited. It’s this lack of influence and control that causing so much emotion in so many forex traders.

It simply drives them crazy that they can’t influence the price. But if you re-train your brain to think in probabilities it can potentially be extremely profitable. Forex Trading success is about three important things. » Ensuring the trading system has a small edge. » Risk Management. » Behaviour.

It is not difficult to find a currency trading system that has an edge and it's not difficult to manage risk, so why is it that not everyone can trade Forex and make money? Emotional discipline is the answer and the behavioural side of currency trading is the most challenging no question but if you can re-train your brain to think in probabilities and not certainties you can potentially profit handsomely. The trading edge you’ll have using the system you trade with has a random probability of success.

Meaning over a series of forex trades it will likely make money however picking the absolute winners is impossible. Finding an edge that has the probability of making money over a series of trades as I said is not difficult but you must understand that it's a series of trades that matters and not just this trade right now. Think of it like flipping a coin.

You and I know a coin is a 50/50 bet, its heads or tails and the odds will never change. But flip a coin 10 times and you could have 7 heads and 3 tails or 6 tails and 4 heads leading someone to believe that maybe it's not 50/50. Flip it 100 times and you will very quickly see that over time it will always end up being 50/50 as it cannot be anything else.

So to re-train your brain as a currency trader you need to do the following » Pick your edge. » Apply your risk management to ensure you are not risking more than you are looking to make on each trade. » Trade your edge over 20 trades and then judge the success. Provided the system you have does have a small edge, your average win is larger than your average loss and you do actually take the trade when the edge appears for 20 trades the outcome will highly likely be that you make money. The challenging part is re-training your brain to think in numbers over a period of time and not thinking in certainties on each forex trade you enter because your human instinct will want to see a winning trade every time.

But does a Casino worry if it has a few losing hands? Of course not because over time if it keeps playing the edge which has a better than 50/50 probability they will make money over time. They do not sweat or get emotional about one roll of the dice like many traders do with one trade.

They think in probabilities and not certainties. If you’d like to learn more about how to re-train your brain as a forex trader and learn some trading edges that can be applied successfully in the market over time join me every Wednesday evening at 7pm AEST for a free currency coaching session. To log into the session simply click on the following link at 6.45pm AEST (Sydney time) to ensure you are safely logged into the web conference room. http://gomarkets.webinato.com/room1 Andrew Barnett | Director / Senior Currency Analyst Andrew Barnett is a regular Sky News Money Channel Guest and one Australia’s most awarded and respected financial experts, and is regularly contacted by the Australian Media for the latest on what is happening with the Australian Dollar.

Connect with Andrew: Email

The Swiss Franc for close to 100 years has acted as a safe haven currency in times of market uncertainty but many traders and investors have no idea why. So here is the answer. Switzerland is traditionally seen as a neutral country when it comes to global conflict.

In fact the Catholic Church has for centuries entrusted Swiss National Guards to look after the Pope. Young catholic men are recruited for 7 to 9 years and sent to the Vatican to guard the Pope and whilst this is a noble gesture it is not the reason why the Swiss Franc acts as a safe haven currency. We have to go back to 1934 to discover the reason why the Swiss Franc has become one of the world's safe haven currencies in times of uncertainty.

In 1934 the government of the day brought in a law that made it heavily punishable with prison terms for any Swiss Banker to divulge any information about the banks clients names. Therefore instead of a bank account in Switzerland having a name as we see at traditional banks throughout the world in Switzerland bank accounts only had a number. So in 1934 the birth of Swiss numbered bank accounts began.

Anyone seeking any information about the names of any bank accounts would be politely declined. This of course led to the channelling of hundreds of millions and eventually hundreds of billions of dollars of rich families money into Swiss Banks accounts. The money came from all throughout Europe and as the word spread anyone who wanted to hide money was likely opening a bank account in Switzerland.

The Jews, any family with a long line of inheritance was putting money in Swiss Francs and even the Nazi’s were entrusting millions with the Swiss to look after. Of course Switzerland became over decades a tax haven for the super wealthy as they looked to hide money and avoid tax Switzerland as a Nation has a fortress mentality and is a land-locked country with tunnels into Germany, Italy and France and these tunnels are heavily fortified and mined. At the sign of any invasion these tunnels can be blown up to protect Switzerland and ensure no army can easily cross over into Switzerland.

The Swiss see their country as an impenetrable place and this leads to a feeling of safety, and that of course extends into their banking. In Switzerland it’s not just chocolates and watches being made, banking is a huge industry with financial markets seeing Switzerland as a very low volatility county with virtually no unemployment (3%), very high wages, high standards of living and a very safe banking and financial system. On top of all of this Switzerland is one of the few countries around the world that traditionally has positive trade balance figures which means more money is coming into Switzerland than leaving and thus we have a Swiss Franc that is forever being sought after.

A stable economy, a stable banking system, positive trade balance numbers and a law that was enacted in 1934 that enabled money to be hidden in Switzerland are the real reasons why the Swiss Franc is sought after in times of uncertainty. On a side note the Swiss also refused to join the European Union they refused to join the Euro and today continue to maintain a high level of independence from the rest of Europe, which is seen as a positive. Andrew Barnett | Director / Senior Currency Analyst Andrew Barnett is a regular Sky News Money Channel Guest and one Australia’s most awarded and respected financial experts, and is regularly contacted by the Australian Media for the latest on what is happening with the Australian Dollar.

Connect with Andrew: Email

When you boil it all down trading is a game of numbers, the more numbers you make over time the more money you make however many traders don’t focus on the numbers game over time and instead focus their attention only on if they are winning or losing right now and it affects their ability to control their emotions. Here is a suggestion that could help you better focus on the numbers game rather than just focus on the Win or Loss right now. I like to call this process “Thinking in 10’s” but before I share the theory with you let me remind you that trading is not necessarily about how many times you win or lose.

Trading is about how much you win when you win and little you lose when you lose. Trying to find a system that wins 70%, 80% or even 90% of the time is extraordinarily difficult and any system that does have such a high strike rate for a period of time will eventually see a change in the percentage success. Just because it worked 70% of the time the past couple of months doesn’t mean it will continue to run at 70%.

Think about this for a moment. A trading system that has a risk / reward target of 1:2 meaning only needs to be correct 38% of the time to break even. Better than 38% and a 1:2 risk / reward strategy is potentially very profitable.

The probability when you trade is 50/50, the market can only go up or down, so gaining an edge to be at least 50% correct with a risk / reward target surely cannot be that difficult. It’s not the edge or % success that is the question, it’s the behavior of the trader in being able to focus over the long term on 1: 2 and not trade to trade. So consider thinking in 10’s.

Instead of evaluating your result day-to-day or week-to-week consider evaluating your performance after the next 10 trades. Lower your expectation on each trade, just follow your system, narrow your focus and ensure your risk is less than the reward and trade the plan for the next 10 trades. Then evaluate your overall result allowing the trades to show an overall success risk / reward ratio after 10 trades.

Many successful traders will be able to tell you what their risk / reward ratio is. In other words for every $1 they risk what is their average return? I think all traders should know these numbers and a good start would be to work out yours after the next ten trades.

So thinking in 10’s is all about following your strategy for 10 trades and not thinking win or loss per trade. Remember it's a numbers game over time, you will win some and you will lose some and it’s about how much you win when you win and how little you lose when you lose. Risk management is the key.

For more trading tips join me every Wednesday evening live online at 7pm AEST. You can simply click on this link and join the coaching session. http://gomarkets.webinato.com/room1 Andrew Barnett | Director / Senior Currency Analyst Andrew Barnett is a regular Sky News Money Channel Guest and one Australia’s most awarded and respected financial experts, and is regularly contacted by the Australian Media for the latest on what is happening with the Australian Dollar. Connect with Andrew: Email

Venezuela: A Latin American Crisis Venezuela’s economy has been in turmoil in recent times with its inflation skyrocketing and with no signs of slowing down, the situation may worsen. The political tensions have also been rising in one of the OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) member country whose economy has been slowly declining since the crash of oil prices in 2014. We have seen large protests against the highly unpopular president Nicolas Maduro, who won the most recent in May this year.

However, most people called it a "show election" as it had the lowest voter turnout in Venezuela’s democratic history at 46%. The Economy With the economic and social crisis rising in Venezuela, we have seen the countries inflation rise to new record highs. From reaching 4068% in January, we have seen the inflation reach 46305% last month.

Experts are predicting the number could reach 1,000,000% by the end of 2018, according to the IMF (International Monetary Fund) economist Alejandro Werner and has compared it to Zimbabwe’s hyperinflation in late 2000’s. It is worth pointing out that the second highest inflation in the world is in Sudan at 122%. Shortages in electricity, water, and public transport affect millions of people of Venezuela.

President Maduro blames countries poor economy on an economic war that he says is being led by the United States and Europe. IMF’s Alejandro Werner says that if the country’s economic and social crisis deepens, Venezuela’s economy could decrease by around 50% over the next 5 years which be one of the worst economic falls in over 60 years. "The collapse in economic activity, hyperinflation, and increasing deterioration... will lead to intensifying spillover effects on neighbouring countries," Werner wrote in a blog post. IMF is estimating an 18% decrease in Venezuela’s economy in 2018, up from 15% drop it predicted back in April.

That would be the third double-digit annual decline in a row. Werner said the projections are based on calculations prepared by IMF staff, but he warned that they have a degree of uncertainty greater than in other countries. "An economy throwing you these numbers is very difficult to project," Werner said at a news conference. "Any changes between now and December may include significant changes." The Venezuelan Currency Countries official currency - Bolivar Fuerte (VEF) has weakened dramatically in recent times. 1 US Dollar is currently worth around 206841 bolivars. The Venezuelan government has recently announced it will slash five zeros from its currency.

The announcement was made on 25th July by President Maduro and it is part of a currency reform that was already scheduled for June and was a postponed on two occasions before. The existing Bolivar Fuerte banknotes, which range from 1,000 to 100,000 will stop circulating and will be replaced by the new "bolivar Soberano", which will range from 2 to 500. The new currency is set to start circulating this month.

By Klāvs Valters Sources: Yahoo Finance, Google Maps, Banco Central De Venezuela

Broadly speaking, inflation is a general increase in prices which result in a fall in the purchasing value of money. In this article, we are going to look at measures of inflation and other indicators that can help traders to detect early signs of inflation. Traders try to follow the inflationary pressures to anticipate the next interest rate move by central banks.

If the central bank sees that inflationary pressures are building up and that economic growth is accelerating, they can decide to raise the interest rate to combat inflation and slow down the economy. Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) are widely used measures of inflation. PPI tracks wholesale price inflation while CPI follows retail price inflation.

As the name entails, PPI and CPI follow the changes in prices from the Producer’s and Consumer’s point of view respectively. PPI can be viewed as the leading indicator because higher producer prices will eventually be passed on to consumers.Therefore, PPI and CPI figures allow traders to forecast the central bank’s next move about the interest rate. Early Warning Signs of inflation There are other factors that can help traders to see that inflation is building up ahead of the release of PPI and CPI figures.

In doing so, forex traders are better able to trade inflation data more confidently. Consumer Confidence and Retail Sales These two economic data provide investors with an indication of the health of the consumers. Consumer Confidence offers an essential insight into the demand for goods and services regardless of consumers’ financial situation.

Consumers are likely to spend if they feel confident about the overall economy. Similarly, Retail Sales help to measure the trends in consumer spending which could cause investors to rethink the direction of interest rates. Labour Market and Wages - (Unemployment rate, Jobless Claims and Average Earnings) Employment rate helps to detect whether there is a shortage or oversupply of labour.

The simple demand and supply diagram of the labour market will provide you with the direction of wages when there are changes in the labour market. Wage inflation therefore translates into more spending and adds to inflationary pressures. Housing Market - (House Prices and Mortgage approvals) The correlation between the housing market and inflation can be a complex one.

However, for this article, we will look at house prices and interest rates. When interest rates are low, buying houses become more affordable. Depending on demand and supply, any change in house prices or mortgage approvals will provide insights on the inflationary outlook.

Inflation is critical for the Forex markets as it can exert a considerable influence on the exchange rate of a currency. Because central banks tend to adjust interest rate to fight inflation or deflation, forex traders monitor inflationary pressures very closely. It helps them to forecast whether the next move of the central bank will put downward or upward pressure on the currency.

If you are willing to look at your Forex experience a bit like an apprentice completes an apprenticeship you are likely going to achieve a higher level of success. Why should opening a live account and making money in the financial markets be any different to any other career? You don’t get to build a house without the appropriate qualifications nor do you get to fly a plane without taking hours of flying lessons and passing some final tests.

A professional sports person spends hours building their body, mind and talent to compete at the highest level but being a Forex trader for some reason is often considered differently. Why? Because as human beings we want instant gratification and because online forex trading involves the opportunity to make money we as humans are greedy and are usually not prepared to take a logical and sensible approach to learning, practice, discipline and patience.

We want it all now so the gambling approach can take over. When you trade forex you are effectively competing and the online trading competitors who you are playing against (banks, institutions) are some of the most experienced, knowledgeable and at times ruthless currency trading competitors on the planet. They want to win and your best chance of winning in my experience is to learn to ride their coat tails and trade similar strategies and systems, which also includes extremely tight risk management.

For example most successful forex banking traders have honed their skills for years often working their way up from a retail banking position, through the research departments, through the company courses and finally over time into a forex trading position on the trading desk. They’ve done an apprenticeship. With such strong competition does this ultimately put you in an uncompetitive position?

No, provided you are willing to spend the time to learn about the fundamentals and technical charts that give you an edge and apply professional risk management you can succeed in the currency markets. There is no question you will fail along the way just as every apprentice failed at times through their apprenticeship but if you do things steadily and slowly you will likely fail gracefully as you learn and stay in the currency trading game long term. Success in the currency markets requires one very important ingredient.

Time! You are going to need time and you need to be able to give yourself the time to fail, time to win, time to learn and time to grow as a currency trader. Think of trading forex like an apprenticeship and you are likely going to achieve a higher level of success.

Join me live online every Wednesday evening at 7pm AEST for a Free Professional Forex training lesson. I will do my best to share with you the important fundamental and technical information to make your currency apprenticeship as enjoyable as possible. To log into the session simply use the following link.

Please make sure you are logged in at 6.45pm AEST as the room is often full. http://gomarkets.webinato.com/room1 Andrew Barnett | Director / Senior Currency Analyst Andrew Barnett is a regular Sky News Money Channel Guest and one Australia’s most awarded and respected financial experts, and is regularly contacted by the Australian Media for the latest on what is happening with the Australian Dollar. Connect with Andrew: Email