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波动性有一种不请自来的方式。
有一天,澳大利亚证券交易所正在悄然波动... 第二天,保证金要求上升,止损未达到预期,投资组合开盘时出现令人不安的隔夜缺口。
如果您一直在寻找答案,那么您并不孤单。澳大利亚交易者中一些最常搜索的有关波动性的问题与追加保证金、滑点、隔夜缺口、杠杆交易所交易基金(ETF)以及平均真实区间(ATR)等工具有关。
以下是正在发生的事情。
为什么现在这很重要
全球市场对利率、通货膨胀数据、地缘政治和技术驱动的流动变得更加敏感。当流动性减少和不确定性增加时,价格波动就会扩大。那就是波动性。
波动性不仅会影响价格方向,还会改变交易的执行方式、需要多少资本以及表面之下的风险表现。
翻译:波动性不仅仅是更大的波动,而是更快的走势和更少的流动性——那是交易机制最重要的时候。
想要真实世界的波动率案例研究吗?
为什么我的经纪人提高了保证金要求?
关于波动率的搜索最多的问题之一是为什么保证金要求在没有警告的情况下增加。
当市场变得不稳定时,经纪商可能会提高差价合约(CFD)和其他杠杆产品的保证金要求。较大的价格波动会增加账户转为负资产的风险,因此提高保证金要求会降低可用杠杆率,并有助于在极端条件下管理风险敞口。
这在实践中可能意味着什么
-即使价格没有显著变动,也可能会出现追加保证金的情况。
-有效杠杆率可能会迅速下降。
-可能需要在短时间内减少职位。
保证金调整通常是对不断变化的市场风险的回应,而不是随机决定。在高度波动的市场中,谨慎的做法是假设保证金设置可以迅速变化,因此,许多交易者选择根据这种风险来审查头寸规模和可用缓冲区。
什么是滑点?为什么我的止损没有按我的价格成交?
另一个经常搜索的话题是滑点。
当止损单触发并以下一个可用价格执行时,可能会发生滑点,结果可能取决于订单类型、市场流动性和缺口。在平静的市场中,差异可能很小,而在快速市场中,价格可能会跳出止损水平。

常见的驱动程序包括
-主要经济或财报发布。
-流动性薄弱。
-拥挤的停车位。
-通宵会议。
止损订单通常优先执行而不是价格确定性,在高波动时期,这种区别变得很重要。根据典型的价格走势调整头寸规模和设置止损可能比在不稳定条件下简单地收紧止损更有效。
如何管理澳大利亚证券交易所的隔夜差距?
澳大利亚在美国沉睡的时候进行贸易,反之亦然。遗憾的是,这种时区差异是澳大利亚交易者经常寻找隔夜缺口风险的原因之一。如果美国市场大幅下跌,澳大利亚证券交易所可能会在第二天早上开盘走低,在收盘和开盘之间没有机会退出。
市场交易者可能使用的风险管理方法的示例包括
-使用澳大利亚证券交易所200指数期货或差价合约*进行指数套期保值。
-在高风险事件期间进行部分对冲。
-在重大宏观公告发布之前减少风险敞口。
套期保值可以抵消部分走势,但会带来基础风险,因为个别股票的走势可能与整体指数不一致。
没有完美的保护,只有在成本、复杂性和风险降低之间进行权衡。
*差价合约是复杂的工具,由于杠杆作用,存在很高的亏损风险。
在波动的市场中,杠杆或反向ETF的主要风险是什么?
在波动性加剧的时期,通常会搜索杠杆和反向ETF。
虽然这些产品通常每天重置,但它们的目标是提供该指数每日回报的倍数,而不是其长期回报。在波动的横盘行情中,即使指数收盘价接近起始水平,每日复利也可能侵蚀价值。

之所以发生这种情况,是因为收益和损失不对称地复合。下降10%需要超过10%的收益才能恢复。当这种影响每天成倍增长时,随着时间的推移,结果可能会与基础指数出现重大差异。
一些市场参与者可能会在战术上使用此类工具。它们通常不是作为长期对冲工具设计的,在将它们用于策略之前,了解它们的结构至关重要。
如何使用 ATR 为止损位置提供信息?
平均真实波动范围(ATR)是衡量波动率的常用指标。
ATR 估算资产在给定时期内通常会有多少波动,包括缺口。一些交易者没有将止损设置为任意百分比,而是参考ATR并将止损设置为倍数,例如ATR的两到三倍,以反映当前情况。
当波动率上升时,ATR 会扩大,如果要保持总体风险不变,这可能意味着更大的止损或更小的头寸规模。这种转变不是问:“我愿意输多远?”改为问:“在当前条件下,正常的举动是什么?”
波动市场中的实际注意事项
在波动性加剧的时期,交易者可以考虑
- 考虑到保证金变动的可能性
- 如果波动率增加,则保守地调整头寸
- 认识到止损单并不能保证特定的退出价格
- 在重大经济事件发生之前审查风险敞口
- 了解杠杆ETF的每日重置机制
- 使用诸如ATR之类的波动率指标来为止损设置提供信息
- 保持足够的现金缓冲区
波动率并不能仅奖励预测。准备和风险意识可以帮助交易者了解潜在的风险,但结果仍然不可预测。
阅读:全球波动性以及如何交易差价合约
这对澳大利亚交易者意味着什么
与亚洲和美国市场相比,澳大利亚市场面临着特定的结构性考虑。隔夜缺口风险受美国交易时间的影响,澳大利亚证券交易所等资源密集型指数可以快速应对大宗商品价格走势和来自中国的数据。货币敞口,包括澳元和美元(USD)的走势,可能会增加另一层波动性。
各地区的波动性并不均匀。根据市场结构和流动性深度,它的行为会有所不同。
有关波动率的常见问题
是什么原因导致市场波动突然飙升?
利率决定、通货膨胀数据、地缘政治发展、盈利意外和流动性限制是常见的触发因素。
为什么经纪人在动荡的市场中增加利润?
减少杠杆风险敞口并在价格波动扩大时管理风险。
在波动期间,止损订单会失败吗?
如果市场跳空超过止损水平,他们可能会出现下滑,这意味着执行的价格可能低于预期。在快速或流动性不足的市场中,这种差异可能很大。
杠杆ETF适合长期对冲吗?
由于每日重置,它们通常是针对短期风险敞口而设计的。它们是否合适取决于您的目标、财务状况和风险承受能力。
在进行交易之前如何衡量波动率?
ATR、隐含波动率指标和历史区间分析等工具可以帮助量化当前状况。
风险警告:波动加剧的时期可能导致价格快速变动、利润率变化以及以不同于预期的价格执行。止损订单和波动率指标等风险管理工具可能有助于评估市场状况,但不能消除损失风险,尤其是在使用杠杆产品时。

The ability to set up phone notifications for trading activity on your MT5 platform has many advantages including of course the opportunity to “Check-in” on the market whist on the move. It could be argued that this ability goes beyond simple convenience and in the case of “pending orders” could be viewed as an important part of risk management of trades that are opened through this method. Pending orders revisited Pending Orders are advanced entry orders that allow you to place an order onto the system that will be filled at a specific price level.
The key potential advantage is that you don’t have to be watching the market continuously for an order to be filled, and it can be filled at any time if the order is still active on the system. An example could be placing a “Buy Stop” order above an identified resistance level, so if the relevant currency pair or CFD moves to this price point then the order will be filled at your chosen price (You can still place a stop loss and profit target associated with the pending order). Although it a potentially attractive function of your Metatrader platform, one of the potential disadvantages is that without notifications set up you may not be aware that a trade has been entered until you are in a position to look at your trading platform on your PC for example.
Without this awareness of an “open” trade, the implications are: You will not be able to adjust a “trail stop” to lock in potential profit if the trade does go in your direction In the event of imminent economic data, you will not know to adjust such open positions to manage risks associated with this. Setting up phone notifications on your phone, is not only relatively simple but mitigates these potential disadvantages. Setting up notifications We will walk you through the set-up process on MT5 but is similar if you are using MT4.
Download the MT5 app on your mobile phone Allow to send “notifications”. Check in phone settings that it is set up. Open the app and go to messages in settings and find your Metaquote ID at the bottom of the screen.
Make a note of this (See diagram below). Open the MT5 platform on your PC In the tools menu, click on options and then the notifications tab. Enter your MetaquoteID in the pop-up box as shown below.
Click on test You should receive a notification on phone that set up is complete and subsequently with any orders you place and that are filled. Of course, feel free to contact the GO Markets team if you need additional support in setting this up at any time.

When we first start to trade, or subsequently (as a more experienced trader) when we trade a new symbol or system we are often “excited” as we see a “hope” for better results. We often forget that the development of expertise in other areas we have in life (think about what you do in work now for example), you must invest time, effort, learning and making mistakes (providing you acknowledge and learn from them) to develop. This is not an overnight transformation, rather it may take several weeks if not months before you feel confident in your knowledge and skills.
It is bizarre therefore that we should expect anything different with trading development. To be clear, we respect and commend those who take the leap and move from demo to live account. After all, a demo platform ( you can trial a MetaTrader 4 or MT 5 demo account here ) will serve you in learning how the platform works, how to add indicators and get used to how markets move.
However, it is only when you start to have some “skin in the game” and are trading YOUR money, albeit with tiny positions to start with that you learn the most important lessons in trading and develop the appropriate mindset to begin to think about trading larger positions. All that been said, we see time and time again new traders or those trading a new system exhibiting three cardinal sins of the developmental trader, and decide to trade: a. With positions that are too big b.
Short cutting learning and system development c. Strategy skipping (i.e. moving from new system to new system) without meaningful measurement as to what works for you (and what doesn’t) or indeed whether the problem is YOU failing to trade a system religiously. These are all symptoms of impatience, of wanting to get massive returns quickly and without putting the hard yards in at the front end.
Remember this... The purpose of your trading when you start trading a live account should not be huge profit, rather it is to develop the confidence in your system, consistency in action and the measure whether what you are doing could be improved. Although it may seem strange to suggest, it is this and not, in the early stage of trading, the money (and level of profit) is most relevant in your potential lifelong career as a trader.
It is through patience, and adhering to that initial purpose that you can gain sufficient confidence and competence to trade larger positions (after all it is just moving a decimal point to go from 1 mini-lot to a standard lot) and put the right foundations in to move forward. Exercising patience to have the right things in place will serve you well for a potential lifetime of trading, to be impatient may mean your trading lasts but a few weeks or months. It is really that simple.

Position sizing is simply the number of contracts that you choose to enter for any specific trade. It is this, combined with the movement in price (either positively or negatively) from entry to exit in your trade, that determines your final dollar result for any specific trade. As this result impacts on your trading capital, position sizing, along with appropriate exit decisions and actions, are THE two key factors in both risk management and taking profit.
It is good trading practice to have a “tolerable risk level”, i.e. what you are prepared to lose on a single trade. This, as we have covered in First Steps, is usually expressed as a percentage of your total trading capital (somewhere between 1-4% are commonly used). For example, If your chosen risk level is 3% and the capital in your account is $5000, this means that you would be prepared to risk $150 on one trade.
Why use formal position sizing? A formal position sizing system aims to answer the question “how many lots do I enter to keep any loss within my tolerable risk level if my stop loss is triggered?”. As we enter a trade, we ALL position size, but we have a choice as to how we action this.
We can: Guess. Use a dollar level i.e. when it hits this we are out (you can retrospectively modify a stop level on a trade chart on your trading platform). Use a technical level as a stop loss and work out how many contracts we can enter based on the Pip movement between entry and stop.
Logically, “3” would seem the most robust AND this should be calculated BEFORE entering a trade. So how do I position size? Accepting that the third of the options above is theoretically the optimum method, the process is: a.
What is my “tolerable risk level” in dollar terms? b. What is the desired technical entry and stop loss price levels? c. What is the dollar difference between entry and stop loss exit? d.
Divide ”a” (your tolerable risk level) by “c” to get an estimated position size. If your account is in Australian dollars the calculation is easier than trading either many index CFDs (except for the ASX200) or Forex as there is no need to add a further calculation to convert a profit/loss back into your account currency. Other position sizing issues to consider: Position sizing can only make a difference to your risk management if you adhere to your pre-planned exit strategy.
Be aware of gapping on market open from previous close price. This is at its potentially most severe subsequent to a company’s earnings report release and so you may want to consider avoiding this situation as part of your risk management plan. Once you have mastered basic position sizing, consider whether different market conditions or situations would merit a different tolerable risk level on which to base your position sizing calculations. e.g. a major economic news release increased general market volatility.
In such situations it may be that you enter a smaller position initially and then accumulate into the position if it goes in your desired direction. There is a FREE DOWNLOAD of an excel-based “indicative CFD position size calculator” you are welcome to use to assist you in this important part of trading entry. Feel free to use, but please pay attention to the notes.
Click on the link below. CFD position size calculator v2 Please feel free to connect with the team with any questions you have about share CFDs and how you can add this to your trading.

We frequently refer both in the articles we publish and the weekly “Inner Circle” sessions we present, to the benefits of a trading journal. However, the reality is that many traders make the choice not to measure trading despite the logical benefits of doing so. Whether you do or don’t currently, the bottom-line decision you are making is not only whether you do or don’t but how that positions yourself with your trading development.
We would suggest that this overall choice can be broken down into the following three sub-choices. You can make the decisions that are right for you subsequently. Sub-choice 1 - Measuring your system You are either making the choice to: Have certainty on not only whether your trading plan as a whole can create positive outcomes but have evidence to know which component parts of your plan are e.g. indicators you use for entry and exit, comparing strategies you trade, timeframes that work best for you, (and which are not) contributing to such outcomes.
Additionally, it allows you to compare what would happen if you change some of the perimeters on your potential results. OR You have no evidence as to whether your system as a whole and its components parts are working well to serve you in getting the results you desire. Nor do you can test and gather evidence as to what the impact of nay changes you may make to that system, Ask yourself… If I am serious about trading results which choice should I make?
Sub-choice 2 - Measuring you as a trader You are either making the choice to: Know the degree to which you are following your plan or otherwise so you can ultimately make a judgement on: a. Whether your system is working for you (all the points in sub-choice 1 above CANNOT be made unless you are following your plan religiously). b. What you need to work on in terms of tightening your behaviour e.g. on exits or entry c.
Whether there are certain market conditions which you find difficult or are ill-prepared for (so you can fill any knowledge gaps or avoid in the future). OR You can continue to trade as you do, avoiding any self-assessment and growth, and the refinement of your behaviour that may contribute to more positive trading outcomes. Ask yourself… If I am serious about trading results which choice should I make?
Sub-choice 3 - Improving your trading (closing the circle) (let’s assume you are keeping a journal for this one) You are either making the choice to: Measure with purpose that has clear follow through into further development and refinement of your trading plan and subsequently your actions. This facilitates the development of you as a trader based on your individual character and trading style. In practical terms, you ‘close the circle’ with a defined review and develop an action plan based on your review to test and change parts of your plan.
This is evidence-based trading! OR You can measure for measurements sake to on the surface appear to be “doing a right thing” but in reality, failing to unleash the real power of journaling, that is to make an on-going and continuous positive difference to your trading outcomes. Ask yourself… If I am serious about trading results which choice should I make?
In summary, if you have made the choice to read this article to its end you are left with one ultimate choice…to journal or not to journal including the three sub-choices that dependent on which you are making can impact on your trading. So, for one last time, Ask yourself… If I am serious about trading results what should my actions be with what I have read in this article? Our next steps and Share CFD education programme both have indicative trading journal templates to help get you started, and we would be delighted if you could join us.
Drop us a line, click on this link HERE, or give us a call if you want further information on either of these FREE programmes of learning.

A written trading plan, usually comprising of several guiding action statements, serves the following two invaluable purposes: Facilitates consistency in trading action e.g. in the entry and exit of trades, allowing the trader AND Measures the strategy used specified within each statement to make an evidence-based judgement on how well these are serving you and test and amend these statements so you can develop an individual trading plan that may work better for you. Let’s move past the fact that many traders choose not to have a plan at all, an approach that goes against what is one of the key components of giving yourself the chance to become a successful trader, to those who have a plan in place already. This article is targeted a those who have made the logical choice to have some sort of written plan in place.
Great though having a plan is, many traders still have issues with the two purposes outlined above. They still fail to some degree to develop the consistency described and are not really able to measure effectively. A common problem, if we look closely at some of the plan statements used, is that such statement may not be specific enough, have some ambiguity, that means that those purposes may be difficult to achieve.
Let’s provide and work through an example for clarity. Consider the following statement… “I will tighten my stop/trailing stop prior to significant, imminent economic data releases” Firstly, on the positive side again, this does demonstrate an awareness of potential risk and a desire to have something within your plan to manage this risk. However, in terms of being a measurable statement that you can make a judgement as to how well this approach is serving you, there are the following issues: What does ‘tightening’ mean in practical terms in relation to current price point of the pair you are trading?
How close to a data release is ‘imminent’? What constitutes a significant data release (amongst the many that are released daily)? So, to take the previous example consider the following as an alternative: “Prior to imminent economic data releases, I will tighten of a trail stop loss for any open trades, 15 minutes prior to the release and to within 10 Pips of the current price.
This will be actioned for the following data points: Interest rate, CPI, industrial production and jobs data from the country of either currency pair (or Germany, France of across the Eurozone if one of the currency pair is the EURO). US and Chinese PMI manufacturing data, GDP, industrial jobs and interest rate decisions as these may impact all currency majors." So, with THIS amended plan statement the following elements could be measured (if journaled appropriately of course): What would the difference be in your trading outcomes if: No tightening had been actioned. If a different proximity to current price is used e.g. 15 rather than 10 Pips.
If other data releases are added/removed. With this level of measurement, possible with the revised statement, one would now be able to make any changes, backed up with evidence, to your trading plan. Alternatively, of course, you could make the choice to do nothing, retain statements such as the original, and not have the ability to create the richness of evidence to make considered amendments to your plan.
Logically ask yourself the question, "which choice is more likely to serve my trading going forward?"

There are few long-term successful traders that at some stage have not suffered a major capital drawdown on their account at some stage. For whatever the reason the major factor as to whether you continue and get back to “winning ways” or continue to see further drawdowns is what you do next. Unfortunately, there are “traps” that such a set of circumstances can lead to, your aim, if this should happen to you is to avoid these.
This article aims to outline these to assist in developing awareness and assist in your “what happens next” thinking and actions. Trap 1 – Abdicate responsibility It is a natural human response when things go wrong to look for someone/something to blame. This is far easier emotionally to deal with than admitting that you have behaved, through actions, in a way that has contributed to a negative outcome.
Although it may be true that certain market conditions, or “trump tweets”, or economic announcements may all contribute to a significant market price movement, the majority of major capital drawdowns in reality occur over a number of trades and of course you have made the choice to trade and as if not more importantly when to exit any trades you have taken. The reality is of course, that unless you accept 100% that trading action is YOUR choice and that YOU are responsible for your trading results then you are unlikely to move forward and may indeed see further capital drawdowns on your trading account. Accepting this reality, gives you the drive to avoid the other potential traps and put the right things in place to reduce the likelihood of it happening again.
Trap 2 – Fail to explore WHY it happened? Beyond accepting responsibility one of your first tasks is to examine potential and subsequently actual factors that may have contributed. Commonly these can all come under the following: a.
You didn’t know what you were doing due to a knowledge gap b. You didn’t have an evidence-based (i.e. you have tested it and refined accordingly) specific comprehensive trading plan that guided your actions c. You didn’t follow your trading plan d.
Your trading system is comprehensive and sufficiently specific but doesn’t work and needs reviewed i.e. a new set of entry/exit criteria The temptation is, and many traders will go straight to ‘d’ of the above, but again arguably there is an element of “finger pointing” rather than taking responsibility. The reality is that of the four factors above the latter is the most unlikely cause. Being honest in your review is critical.
Such an honest review will give you clear guidance on which factor(s) you should focus on working on. Trap 3 – ‘Revenge’ trading Although this is a term bandied around frequently, let us delve beyond the ‘beermat psychology’ and look a little closer at what this may mean. In essence, the underlying emotional motivation is to get back to where you were before in terms of your account capital.
Commonly this thinking is backed by “desperation”, subsequently influencing actions that often bear little resemblance to good trading practice. In action, you may see: • Taking trades when there is no clear set up • Partial or complete ignoring of any trading plan • Inappropriate actions further trades go against you (e.g. finding reasons to stay in future trades when there is an exit) • Trading higher position sizing that you previously had • Trading each small market move, taking a reverse position even on a trend pause. • Looking to trade tighter and tighter timeframes These of course may significantly contribute to further losses as this emotional rather than system- based trading takes a stronger and stronger hold on your actions. Logically, the following may be more appropriate: • Give yourself some breathing space to properly review …STOP trading while you complete this (As described above) • Although easy to say and not so easy to accept the reality is that your account capital is what it is now, not what it was.
There was, for many in this situation, a time in your trading where whatever your capital level, your aim was to increase whatever that level was and put actions in place to give yourself the best chance of that happening. Ultimately, even if you strayed from this, developing consistency in appropriate trading plan actions and measurement are accepted by most traders as the way to make this happen over time. So, you need to press the “RESET button”, accept it as it is, and have the goal that through returning to that good trading practice consistently, and filling the gaps you need to.
Making this your goal rather than a dollar figure, may give yourself the chance to build capital not just to its previous level but beyond. Let it go! And do the right things from here I guess is the bottom-line message.
Trap 4 – Position size according to your previous rather than current account level This final trap for discussion in this article may seem obvious on the surface, but may either be a symptom of the previous point or something that is overlooked (unless of course inappropriate position sizing was one of the root causes of a major drawdown which you will discover in your review). It is crucial, and hence why we make special reference to it here, that you have a set risk level, usually expressed as a % of your account capital. This will differ from trader to trader but is comply between the 1-3% level as an example.
This determines lot/contract size (dependent on what you are trading) for any individual trade and combined with “stop loss” placement is a critical part of your risk management now and going forward. You need to recalculate what this is for you with reference to your NEW account size and factor this into your decision making, even if this means you are trading smaller amounts for now. In summary, major trading drawdowns are upsetting, and although not common often create additional ‘traps’ which may worsen what has happened to your trading capital.
And finally... Although perhaps of little consolation that many, many traders who now have sustained success, will have gone through this like you, the difference between what happens next and for your trading account in years to come, to your account is likely to be as a result of what you do next. You have choices to make but avoiding the above four traps described may perhaps assist in ultimately getting to where you want to be with your trading going forward.
